DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND JOB INSECURITY: In a move that came as a surprise to almost no one (including apparently, the prediction markets) President Trump sent his Secretary of Homeland Security packing on Thursday. In just over a year, Kristi Noem managed to stack up a full presidential term's worth of controversies: ICE agents shooting American citizens on the streets of Minnesota while she characterized the victims as domestic terrorists; luxury government jets rebranded as "deportation planes" for her travel; and a self-commissioned TV ad campaign that cost taxpayers hundreds of thousands of dollars, featuring herself on horseback near Mount Rushmore. We wondered whether prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi saw her ouster coming. You bet they did. At the start of this year, Polymarket had the odds on Noem being the first cabinet officer fired at only 12%. But by the end of January, it predicted a 56% chance that she’d be gone by the end of the year. After some painful performances in Congressional oversight hearings the betting spiked just before Noem got the axe. Overall, about a half million dollars was bet on Polymarket this calendar year on “if and when” she would be gone. Prediction markets seem pretty good at forecasting wars and firings and they may soon rival the Pentagon Pizza Index in important prognostication. If you don’t know what the Pentagon Pizza Index is - you really outta read The Dead Drop more often.
PRAISE (MY) LORD AND PASS THE AMMUNITION: Oy vey! The Military Religious Freedom Foundation, (MRFF) an outfit that holds that “No religion or religious philosophy may be advanced by the United States Armed Forces over any other religion or religious philosophy” says they have received an ungodly number of complaints from servicemen and women about some of their leaders describing the ongoing war in and around Iran as a crusade. One report said that a “combat-unit commander told non-commissioned officers at a briefing Monday that the Iran war is part of God’s plan” This leader allegedly added that President Trump was “anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth.” This spin may not go down too well with U.S. ally Israel. Inshallah, other American allies around the Gulf won’t misunderstand U.S. war aims. Otherwise, long-term stability in the region may not have a prayer.
IRAN AMOK: If you read Friday’s Nightcap newsletter, then you already knew - just hours before the U.S. and Israel began launching attacks against Iran - that there were a number of signs that it may happen this weekend. A wave of attacks and retaliatory attacks has kept cable networks going 24/7 – but here are a few oddball items you might have missed:
LOOSE LIPS? On Friday afternoon, attorney Mark Geragos was reportedly chowing down at a well-known DC restaurant, Joe's Seafood, Prime Steak & Stone Crab just before he was planning to go record a podcast from the bar with TMZ boss Harvey Levin. But four men sitting at a nearby table were talking loudly (as some tend to do in bars), with one of them saying quite confidently that the U.S. was going to bomb Iran “today.” Geragos says the men were dressed in business attire. Location matters: Joe’s is less than a quarter mile from the White House and it turns out that “Operation Epic Fury” launched just a few hours later. (In fairness, it was hardly the first time people in DC bars have bragged about getting bombed.)
PROFITABLE BEAN SPILLING? Don’t know if they have been hanging out at Joe’s Seafood – but CoinDesk reports that a lot of people have been investing their hope in Polymarket wagering on the looming crisis in Iran. Six “wallets” reportedly earned a total of $1.2 million by correctly betting that a U.S. strike against Iran would happen by February 28. Overall, Polymarket has attracted more than half a billion dollars in wagers on various options - and that was before the first bomb landed.
SECURITY WATCH: Various eagle-eyed observers zoomed in on still photos that the White House released of meetings at Mar-a-Lago’s SITROOM South - showing senior administration officials who were monitoring the Iran operation. In particular, security hawks were focusing on the right wrist of White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles with some saying it looked like she was wearing an Apple watch. No big deal for most of us but as observers pointed out – a potential security breach for someone traveling with the president. But other serious “watch watchers” reported that she was wearing a “whoop” – which does not include a microphone, GPS, or cellular capability and was reportedly on the NSA approved list of acceptable accessories for some SCIFS …but not all.
KREMLINOLOGY - WHITE HOUSE STYLE: Back in the days of the USSR, intelligence analysts used to scour photos of Moscow’s May Day parades to see who stood where atop Lenin’s tomb – as a possible indicator of whose fortunes were on the rise – or waning. Now, media analysts apparently just examine photos released by the White House. Action packed shots released yesterday from Mar-a-Lago show the President, Susie Wiles, Secretary of State & National Security Advisor Marco Rubio and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Dan Caine. Eventually, the White House also released a still photo of the Vice President at the head of a table in the D.C. Situation Room with DNI Tulsi Gabbard, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other unidentified “cabinet secretaries.” There was no sign of Secretary of War/Defense Pete Hegseth from either location. Hegseth did post a statement on social media more than 12 hours after the President announced “Operation Epic Fury” but has not shown up in any of the publicly-released photos that we’ve seen. Maybe he was busy conducting operations against the Ivy League?GOT NEWS TO SHARE? SEND IT OUR WAY: Editor@thecipherbrief.com
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