Want to Get Confirmed for Office? Good Luck With That
BOOK REVIEW: IF CONFIRMED: An Insider’s View of the National Security Process
By Arnold L. Punaro / Fortis
Reviewed by: Bill Harlow, The Cipher Brief’s Senior Book Editor and co-host of the Cover Stories Podcast
The Reviewer — Bill Harlow served as chief spokesman for the CIA from 1997 to 2004 and was Assistant White House Press Secretary for National Security from 1988 to 1992. A retired Navy captain, Harlow is the co-author of four New York Times bestsellers on intelligence and is the author of Circle William: A Novel.
REVIEW — No matter which political party wins the upcoming presidential election, as soon as the votes are counted, the side that comes out on top should buy a couple cases of Arnold Punaro’s new book “If Confirmed” and hand out copies to individuals expected to be nominated for top national security positions.
Punaro spent 24 years as a U.S. Senate staffer – more than half of which was as either Majority or Minority Staff Director of the Senate Armed Services Committee. After leaving the Senate, he has served as an advisor and consultant to DOD and other executive branch departments during Democrat and Republican administrations. No one inside or outside government has more experience in handling high-level presidential appointments than he does. He has been involved with the nominations of 12 Secretaries of Defense, 12 JCS Chairmen, over 40 Service Chiefs, and more than 2,000 senior civilians. So, who better to serve as our sherpa to explain the ins and outs of the confirmation process. And boy does it need explaining. The process is far more complex than you might imagine and full of pitfalls that could easily derail a nomination.
While the focus of “If Confirmed” is mostly on DOD-related confirmations, many of the lessons in the book would be applicable to presidential appointments which fall under the jurisdiction of other Senate Committees such as Foreign Relations and Veterans Affairs. Punaro explains that there are almost 1,200 Presidentially-Appointed Senate-Confirmed (PAS) government-wide civilian positions that require Senate approval these days.
The background checks and security paperwork, financial disclosures and sometimes very detailed “Advance Policy Questions” (APQs) that nominees must submit can all slow the confirmation process down. And Punaro quite openly says that that people considering accepting a nomination for one of the PAS jobs need to seriously consider “whether they want to deal with the hassles that come with government work, beginning with the confirmation process.”
Lots of things can go wrong along the way. For example, on July 20,2021 the Biden administration sent to the Senate paperwork to nominate Andrew Hunter to be assistant secretary of the Army. The only problem was they had meant to nominate him to be assistant secretary of the Air Force. The paperwork was squared away a day or so later and Hunter was sworn in to the USAF gig in February 2023.
But even if the executive branch gets the paperwork right – lots of other things can go wrong along the way. “If Confirmed” details the tricky path from the point when the White House might just float the name of a potential nominee to test the waters, to actual nomination, confirmation and appointment.
In addition to having handled countless nominations while a senior Senate staffer, after leaving government Punaro continued serving as an outside guide helping shepherd nominees through the tricky process. The book is generously illustrated with “thank you” notes from senior officials who made it through the confirmation gauntlet with his help, and quite notably — in the current environment – he has helped candidates nominated by both political parties.
The book’s title “If Confirmed” comes from a bit of wisdom long offered to nominees. Whether communicating in public before a hearing, meeting with individual senators prior to confirmation, or in the hearing itself – nominees are advised that when answering any question about what they might do in office, they should preface any response with the words “If confirmed.” Nominees who seem to imply that their confirmation is a foregone conclusion soon learn to regret their hubris.
The book offers practical advice on navigating confirmation hearings – ranging from creating a one-page “cheat sheet” with bullet points to make in response to questions, and the sage advice of avoiding hypothetical questions and not answering questions that are not asked of you.
The fourth of five major sections of the book is devoted to “Military Nominations and Confirmations.” The general public may be unaware that in addition to confirming nominations for senior civilians or high-ranking uniformed officers, the Senate also must approve lists containing thousands of active-duty military officers for promotion to the grades of O-4 (major/lieutenant commander) and above. Reserve promotions O-6 and above get Senate scrutiny. Punaro, who is a retired Marine Corp Reserve major general, has a well-honed view on the overall process. Only the most senior uniformed nominees have to endure actual confirmation hearings – but the services are required (and by his telling, sometimes fail) to inform the Senate about any adverse information about a candidate.
Perhaps the most timely portion of the book is the fifth and final section which looks at changes that could and should be made to the confirmation process. Having observed, starting in February 2023, a single person, Senator Tommy Tuberville (R, AL) holding hundreds of flag and general officer nominations hostage for months over a policy that none of them had anything to do with setting, it is clear that tweaks are in order. But there are many more issues that he says could and should be addressed. One involves the potential financial burden that nominees face when accepting a job in government with forced divestment of certain financial holdings. Also, rules and regulations regarding post-government employment can often make taking the job in the first place unattractive. Ethical rules and standards placed on departing executive branch officials are vastly more restrictive than those imposed on members of Congress and their staffs.
To make the process work better, Punaro has three broad categories of recommendations. One is to decrease the number of positions that the Senate needs to confirm overall. (In 1949 there were only 4 positions within DOD that required Senate confirmation. Today there are 42.) Next, he argues for streamlining the process of vetting nominees both within the Executive and legislative branches. And finally, he calls for speeding up the process within the Senate to come to a conclusion on a nominee’s fate.
If you are a government policy nerd (and if you are reading The Cipher Brief there is a good chance you are) there is much to learn from this insider’s look and the confirmation process. Also check out our Cover Stories podcast interview with Punaro on his important and timely new book.
If Confirmed earns a prestigious 4 out of 4 trench coats
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