BOOK REVIEW: The Russia Trap: How Our Shadow War with Russia Could Spiral into Nuclear Catastrophe
By George Beebe
Reviewed by Michael Sulick
Cipher Brief Expert Michael Sulick served as director of CIA’s National Clandestine Service and is currently a consultant on counterintelligence and global risk assessment. While at CIA, Sulick also served as Chief of Counterintelligence and Chief of the Central Eurasia Division where he was responsible for intelligence collection operations and foreign liaison relationships in Russia, Eastern Europe and the former republics of the Soviet Union.
George Beebe's The Russia Trap offers a thought-provoking argument to transform current US-Russia relations.
Beebe, former director of CIA's Russia analysis, argues that each side suffers from its deep misperceptions about the other and lacks a comprehensive approach to overall bilateral relations. A US response to an aggressive policy move by Russia prompts a retaliatory response that in turn provokes yet another escalating reaction from Russia. The book makes a persuasive case that this cycle of escalation could well spiral into a nuclear catastrophe.
Both sides, as Beebe argues, fail to recognize the reaction by the other to its foreign policy moves and are even stunned by the responses. As an example, the US was surprised by the sharp Russian reaction to the NATO Kosovo campaign, while the Russians in turn were stunned by the harsh US sanctions in response to its meddling in presidential elections.
US debate on policy toward Russia is generally divided into two camps, one advocating an offensive approach that Russian aggression must be met with strength, and, in the other camp, a defensive approach urging restraint and diplomacy since robust responses may be counterproductive.
This is nothing new, as Beebe himself notes. Misperceptions on both sides were a staple of the Cold War as were debates over a more confrontational or more conciliatory approach to the Soviets. The book, however, argues convincingly that the dangers of spiraling escalation toward destructive war are more profound now than in the Cold War. The blurry lines between espionage and warfare in the cyber arena, domestic issues in both countries and the shifting global distribution of power all aggravate the potential for catastrophic missteps by either side.
Another new danger the author discusses in a compelling part of the book is the absence of mechanisms to avert military escalation of crises. The landmark arms treaties of the Cold War period are now dead or dying, and movement to reinvigorate them is stalled because of current bilateral tensions. Sadly, the US media currently focuses more on Putin's succession plans, Russian election meddling, and undermining the Ukraine, serious topics to be sure, but equally newsworthy are arms control treaties that involve weapons that could destroy mankind. As the book notes, in today's world advances in weapons technology heighten the dangers of military escalation. As an example, the development of new hypersonic weapons would in response compel near instantaneous "launch on warning decisions," with all the risks of judgments made in haste. In addition, a growing trend on both sides to advocate a nuclear response to conventional threats makes arms control negotiations crucial.
The first part of the book, "Understanding the Problem," presents an insightful and comprehensive historical analysis of the concatenation of post-Cold War events ranging from NATO expansion to Russian US election meddling that eventually soured the promising relationship of early post-Cold War years. All the actions and reactions on both sides have gradually deteriorated to the point where each side is now firmly convinced the other seeks its demise –- a view that hardly incentivizes conflict resolution. The book also provides an excellent overview of the early post-Cold War years of Russia's failed attempts at economic revitalization and the American role in that crisis.
In the second part of the book, the author presents his recommendations to defuse the threat of spiraling escalation by both sides. In the author's view, the US-Russia relationship is a "complex systems problem" requiring transformative thinking, abandoning a linear approach focused on single issues, the "bureaucratic silo" effect, in favor of a holistic approach (in this regard Beebe takes a few jabs at US democratization efforts, which indeed have failed not only in Russia but elsewhere). Among the recommendations he includes in this approach are improved bilateral communications, strategic dialogue to reduce ambiguity and misperceptions in viewing the other side's actions, and new codes of conduct, especially in the cybersphere and outer space where both countries could mutually benefit from established rules.
Citing the Sarajevo incident that ignited World War I, the author notes that "small events cause ripples that can produce…large, catastrophic outcomes." Such small events have already occurred and are cited in the book. There have already been over 200 incidents of Russian aircraft flying across or close to Western airspace, and the clash between American and Russian troops in Syria in February 2018 resulted in the first casualties since the Cold War.
Beebe's proposals are ambitious and, unfortunately, would be difficult to even initiate in the current confrontational relationship between the US and Russia. For that reason, The Russia Trap is a cautionary analysis and must-read for US executive and legislative leaders whose public comments on Russia often reflect a rudimentary understanding of the complex issues Beebe raises. While The Russia Trap is clearly intended for a US audience, the problems and possible solutions outlined in it require the attention of both sides –- so Russian leaders would benefit from reading it as well.
This book earns a prestigious four out of four trench coats.
The reviewer, Michael Sulick has written two books on espionage against the United States, Spying in America: Espionage From the Revolutionary War to the Dawn of the Cold War and American Spies: Espionage Against the United States from the Cold War to the Present, both published by Georgetown University Press.
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