What the US Must Do to Answer the China Challenge
BOOK REVIEW: LOST DECADE: The U.S. Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power
By Robert D. Blackwill and Richard Fontaine/Oxford University Press
Reviewed by: Martin Petersen
The Reviewer — Martin Petersen is a CIA veteran, Asia expert, and a Cipher Brief Expert. He is the author of City of Lost Souls, A Novel of Shanghai 1932, which will be published later this year.
REVIEW — Lost Decade is the latest in a series of books that look at the state of US-China relations and project the future. For example: Destined for War by Graham Allison (2017), 2034: A Novel of the Next World War by Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis (2021), The Long Game by Rush Doshi (2021), and World on the Brink by Dmitri Alperovitch (2024) all make the same point. China’s rise presents a major challenge to the United States and the U.S. is poorly positioned to meet it.
Blackwell and Fontaine, who undoubtedly are well known to many of the readers of The Cipher Brief, argue that China “poses an abiding and proximate threat to all five” vital American interests: reducing the threat of Weapons of Mass Destruction and cyberattacks against the U.S. and our allies; the proliferation of nuclear capabilities and delivery systems; maintaining a regional balance of power that promotes peace; preventing the emergence of hostile or failed states in the Western hemisphere; and maintaining the stability of major international systems in trade, finances, environment, etc. The author’s statements about the Western hemisphere and nuclear proliferation are a bit of stretch in my view, but their basic argument that U.S. interests and China’s actions put us on a collision course is hard to dispute.
The Lost Decade is an examination of U.S.-China policy from the Clinton administration to today with a concentration on the last decade, essentially the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations. As far back as 1993, U.S. policymakers were talking about the importance of paying more attention to East Asia. Certainly the 1990s were a critical decade in the evolution of the region: Japan-U.S. trade frictions, North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, the transition to democracy in South Korea and Taiwan, the Asian tiger economies and the Asian financial crisis, etc. I was Director of the Office East Asia Analysis at that time and one of my young analysts asked me if I thought the Clinton administration would really pivot and devote more time and energy to Asia. I told the analyst, “Yes, but you have to remember that there is an off-ramp at the Middle East.”
That is basically the story that Blackwell and Fontaine tell. Despite a recognition of the increasing importance of East Asia and the desire to devote more time and energy to it, that change never happened. They observe correctly, I believe, that U.S. China policy was the critical piece in dealing with an evolving region, and that the assumption driving policy was that by bringing China into the World Trade Organization and other international bodies, the China issue could be handled, and China’s economic development would lead to political moderation. That did not happen. (In 1997 I published an article in National Security Studies Quarterly titled The Future of East Asia Meeting the Challenge of the Eight Realities, which argued that Chinese and U.S. interests, despite the good relations of the moment, were fundamentally different.)
Lost Decade credits the Trump administration with changing the U.S. view on China from one of cooperation to competition, a policy that the Biden administration has continued and built on. But Blackwell and Fontaine make a strong case that although the U.S. has talked a good game about a “pivot to Asia,” nothing much has happened materially. From the Obama administration to the present, there has been much rhetoric and some increased diplomacy, but little or nothing in terms of shifting resources from other regions to Asia.
This disconnect between language and action has contributed significantly to a decline in U.S. influence globally and created opportunities that China has been quick to exploit, according to the authors. They point out, as many others have, that at present there is no U.S. grand strategy for dealing with China or the other international challenges the U.S. faces. They make the point that Putin’s aggression in Europe and the events in the Middle East since October 2023 only make things more difficult, and that what we are left with is more sanctions and small steps without an overarching plan, in short, a make-it-up as you go along approach.
The book concludes with the six reasons the last three administrations have not been able to “pivot to Asia,” and sets out four strategic principles. The authors state, “As important as to what to do is how to think about the task before the United States (author’s emphasis).” Their recommendations are consistent with the other books I mentioned at the top of the review: articulate a positive vision; accept America’s global role; calculate trade-offs and great power competition; and pursue unity. Specifically, they advocate the United States strengthen its alliances and make its European allies a central part of its China strategy; de-risk our economic ties with China and join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP); increase defense spending and boost power projection in Asia; shift military resources from the Middle East and Europe to Asia; intensify diplomacy with China; and support the forces for democracy and liberalism.
Destined for War explores possible U.S.-China futures and how easily it could end in disaster. The Long Game looks at the challenge to U.S. interests. World on the Brink covers the history of U.S. China-Relations since Nixon and offers, like Lost Decade, policy options. For an understanding of how difficult it will be to execute on the policy options and the challenges in doing so, Lost Decade is the book you want. Taken together, the four are a powerful package.
Lost Decade earns a prestigious 4 out of 4 trench coats
The Cipher Brief participates in the Amazon Affiliate program and may make a small commission from purchases made via links.
Interested in submitting a book review? Send an email to [email protected] with your idea.
Sign up for our free Undercover newsletter to make sure you stay on top of all of the new releases and expert reviews.
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief because National Security is Everyone’s Business.