Making Russian Revanchism Add Up
BOOK REVIEW: ZERO SUM: The Arc of International Business in Russia
By Charles Hecker / Oxford University Press
Reviewed by: Nick Fishwick
The Reviewer — Nick Fishwick CMG retired after nearly thirty years in the British Foreign Service. His postings included Lagos, Istanbul and Kabul. His responsibilities in London included director of security and, after returning from Afghanistan in 2007, he served as director for counter-terrorism. His final role was as director general for international operations.
REVIEW — Probably the most hopeful geo-political time in many of our lives was the late 1980s. For decades, people on both sides of Churchill’s “Iron Curtain” had been brought up believing that nuclear oblivion was a real possibility. But as the Gorbachev era lurched on, we ceased to worry. And in Russia itself, the old Soviet Union, freedoms not seen since 1917 or perhaps even before started to appear. In August 1991 the Soviet deep state made what we thought was its last stand but Russia, it seemed, had passed the stage when it could be dominated by lies and coups. A post-Soviet, post-communist era began.
Charles Hecker’s gripping book, Zero Sum, takes us through the crazy 30 odd post-Soviet years. The Boris Yeltsin era seemed to offer possibilities that no one had dared to dream of in the days of Brezhnev and Andropov. Western businesses piled in to what looked like a “developing” or, more correct term, “emerging” economy. Russia was rich in natural resources, and it was at least in part a European country, imperfectly joined to Europe’s culture and history. It had countless smart, well-educated people who aspired, not to be some party Gosplan hack in a poky apartment with elevators stinking of vodka and urine, but to have a lifestyle similar to the middle class in France, Britain and especially the United States.
Hecker’s story is a grizzly odyssey. The book is full of crisp soundbites. One I liked best, towards the end of the book, quotes someone saying that Russia has become, not an emerging economy, but a submerging economy. Another bemoans the lost western hopes for Russia: “I thought they could be the 51st state.” We will come back to that.
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The Soviet Union had a deeply dysfunctional economy based on the one hand by carrots (personal favors, which of course had to be repaid) and on the other sticks (violence). It never had laws enforced by an independent judiciary, no credible regulators, no transparency, no democratic accountability. Despite the bureaucratic superstructure of five-year plans and state ownership, things got done if at all through impenetrably complicated informal deals. Despite Gorbachev’s reforms civil society in 1991 was paper thin, and the defeat of the 1991 coup turned out not to be the end of the deep, or rather submerged, state at all.
Hecker shows the assumptions of western businessmen (and occasionally policy makers) in post-Communist Russia. Of course, they all wanted to make money and there was a lot of it to be made. But there was also a general assumption that capitalism must bring about what came with capitalism in the west: rule of law, regulation, transparency, democracy. It was a bit of a shock then to find Russia in only its fifth post-Soviet year, apparently facing a switch from Yeltsin back to communism via the ballot box. This was definitely not in the script and Bill Clinton “leaned on the IMF to provide a loan to Russia…in support of Yeltsin’s reelection;” an election that was “laughably rigged.” So much for democracy, and things never got any better. As for capitalism, western companies – whether they were trying to be law-abiding, or whether they were prepared to bend rules to suit the demands of business in Russia – never really knew what they were doing. They did not understand the informal networks that made up a system that wasn’t a system. A few were murdered, several hundred seem to have been compromised sexually, and many more were compromised in other ways. This was not the rebirth of capitalism but, as one of Hecker’s sources tells us, the “disintegration of the Russian Empire in slow motion.”
There were hopes, let us remember, that Putin’s accession would give Russia a firm push into the global capitalist system. He was young, he was sober, and maybe the KGB background would bring some assurance that he knew how to work within the system. He may have enjoyed the early romances with the Clintons and Blairs but by 2007 he was telling the Munich conference that he rejected liberal values, and a series of shocks happened: Litvinenko, Georgia, Ukraine 2014, Salisbury, Ukraine 2022. Capitalism continued, the oligarchs and organized crime gave way, but we steadily saw less freedom and more opacity. Despite increasing sanctions, the west hoped almost to the last minute that the relationship with Russia could somehow develop. Few of us will forget the sight of President Macron’s “Singing in the Rain” moment with Putin at the 2018 World Cup finals while Russian proxies fought on Ukrainian soil.
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The obvious question Hecker raises is why did the west get it so wrong? Was it willful blindness, deep and greedy cynicism, or a genuine, fundamental misunderstanding of Russia? Obviously, a combination, and choose whichever factor you wish to emphasize. Personally, I would put more emphasis on the cynicism of Putin than the crimes and follies of the west.
More interesting is the question in Hecker’s last chapter, “Now What?” Hecker makes some sensible observations about the end of globalization and the need, as he puts it, to “stop chasing swans”: don’t forecast, prepare. But all this seems terribly 2024. In 2025 we are looking at the possibility of Russian aggression being rewarded by the US; of the US leaving Europe to manage its own security risks with Russia; of sanctions being lifted, business with Russia being encouraged all over again but this time with less fuss, presumably, about compliance and regulation. Putin is looking even more pleased with himself than ever. Far from Russia being the “51st state” we are seeing Canada, the US’s loyal friend, neighbor, democratic ally and business partner, offered this status through a mailed fist. Following Hecker I hesitate to make forecasts, but this isn’t going to end well for the west.
Zero Sum: The Arc of International Business in Russia earns a prestigious 4 out of 4 trench coats
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