Wednesday, February 8, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
China Figures Prominently During State of the Union Speech. China figured prominently in President Joe Biden’s second State of the Union address. Biden says that the US is in the strongest position ‘in decades’ to compete with China, and that winning that competition should unite all Americans. He also says that the US would act if Beijing threatens US sovereignty. Reports say that Biden specifically mentioned China five times during the speech. Biden also called out Ukraine’s Ambassador to the US telling her that the US would stand with Ukraine “as long as it takes”. South China Morning Post BBC Politico Al Jazeera
US Navy Releases Images of the Balloon Recovery Operation. On Tuesday the US Navy released the first images of the recovery mission to retrieve the Chinese balloon from waters off of North Carolina’s coast. The pictures showed personnel from the Navy’s Explosive Ordnance Detachment (EOD) pulling pieces of the balloon into a boat. The military says it took precautions in the event there were explosives on the craft. Al Jazeera
US Says Balloon Part of Global Chinese Surveillance program. The US intelligence community says that the Chinese balloon was part of a large surveillance program run partly out of Hainan province off China’s south coast according to officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to the Washington Post. The balloons have reportedly been spotted over 5 continents. US officials are briefing allied nations on the program. While the US does not know the exact size of the balloon fleet, officials believe that the program has run at least two dozen missions in recent years, with half a dozen of the flights believed to have taken place in US airspace. CNN reports that FBI investigators are already working to reconstruct the surveillance equipment that the balloon which was shot down off the coast of North Carolina carried and that the FBI hopes to be able to determine specifics around the type of data and transmission capabilities the balloon had. Officials say the NSA provided capabilities to intercept some real-time data as the balloon traveled across the US with a Pentagon spokesperson saying that the intelligence collected was worth the time the US allowed the balloon to continue to operate. BBC Washington Post CNN Reuters
Chinese Defense Minister Refuses Request to speak with Secretary of Defense Austin. A Pentagon spokesman says the Chinese Defense Minister denied a US request to speak via secure phone with US Secretary of Defense Llyod Austin following the downing of a Chinese balloon by the US military. The Pentagon cited the need to maintain open lines of communication in order to responsibly manage the relationship between the two countries. Analysts say the refusal on the part of Beijing highlights the tense nature of the relationship and the challenge of communicating with the Chinese military during times of crisis. Politico Wall Street Journal
US Military Report Says China Has More ICBM Launchers Than U.S. China now has more Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) launchers than the US according to a letter sent to Congress by the head of US Strategic Command. The US military says however that many of the silos in China are empty, and that overall the US has more ICBM’s than China, as well as more nuclear capable submarines and long-range bombers. The report has sparked debate in Congress with some lawmakers supporting the idea of increasing the number of ICBM silos in the US inventory to maintain superiority over China and Russia. Currently, the number of ICBM’s in the US is governed by a treaty with Russia that is set to expire in 2026. Wall Street Journal
Western Europe
Paris Mayor Supports Banning Russia from 2024 Olympics if Ukraine War Persists. Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo told French media on Tuesday that she is in favor of banning Russia from the 2024 Olympics if the Ukraine war continues. She previously said last month that Russian athletes could participate “under a neutral flag” but has now changed her position as a neutral flag “does not really exist.” However, she said “dissident Russians” who don’t support the war should be able to participate under the “refugee flag.” Several countries like Poland, Estonia and Ukraine have threatened to boycott the Olympics if Russia and its ally Belarus are allowed to join. The International Olympic Committee will ultimately decide who gets to participate. France 24
EU Launching Anti-Disinformation Platform. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell announced that the bloc is launching a new platform to counter Russian and Chinese disinformation campaigns. The new Information Sharing and Analysis Center within the European External Action Service (EEAS) will track disinformation from foreign actors and coordinate with EU members and NGOs to tackle information manipulation. The new center comes amid Russian disinformation surrounding the Ukraine war and concerns about potential risks from generative artificial intelligence. Politico
Central & Eastern Europe
Zelenskiy Visits London in Second Known Trip Outside of Ukraine Since Russia’s Invasion. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy met British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in London on Wednesday. He also addressed the British parliament, where he called for further Western military aid like fighter jets and praised efforts by former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to support Kyiv. Zelenskiy’s visit to the UK is his second known trip outside of Ukraine since Russia’s invasion on February 24. The trip comes after Sunak announced that the UK will provide training for Ukrainian marines and fighter jet pilots. He also said Britain is set to impose additional sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle and Russian companies supporting the war. BBC Reuters Wall Street Journal
Russia’s Shoigu Says NATO Aid for Ukraine Risking Escalation. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Tuesday that Western military aid to Kyiv is bringing NATO directly into the Ukraine war and risking an “unpredictable” escalation of the conflict. Shoigu warned that the US and its allies are sending heavy offensive weapons to Ukraine for the seizure of Russian territories, apparently referencing regions in eastern and southern Ukraine that Moscow claimed to have annexed last September. Ukraine maintains that it needs more advanced weapons to counter an expected Russian offensive in the coming weeks and months. Al Jazeera
Ukraine Says Russia Intensifying Winter Assault. Ukraine reports that Russia is escalating its winter assault and preparing a new offensive. Ukrainian forces report that villages in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia are coming under fire. Ukraine’s national security chief Oleksiy Danilov said Tuesday that new offensives will likely further target these areas. More generally, Ukraine’s military says 1,030 Russian troops have been killed in the last 24 hours, the highest daily loss since the start of the war. The figure could not be independently verified, and Russia likewise claims high Ukrainian losses, saying that Ukraine suffered 6,500 casualties over the last month. France 24
Fire Breaks Out at US-Owned Drone Factory in Latvia. A fire broke out at the US-owned “Edge Autonomy” drone factory plant outside Latvia’s capital of Riga on Tuesday. The cause of the fire is still unknown. The plant produces long-range unmanned aerial vehicles for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions. Buyers of the drones include academic, commercial and governmental clients in 70 countries, including Ukraine and NATO members. Deutsche Welle RFE/RL
Turkey-Syria Earthquake Death Toll Passes 11,000. Turkey says that the recent earthquakes killed at least 8,475 people and injured 49,133. Combined figures from authorities in government-held areas in Syria and aid groups in rebel-held areas show at least 2,530 people have died in Syria. Rescue efforts are ongoing amid harsh winter conditions. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency in 10 provinces and is visiting some affected areas in southern Turkey on Wednesday. Syria has activated an EU civil protection mechanism to request aid following the quakes. The UN reports that getting aid into Syria will be difficult as the only approved crossing from Turkey has been damaged from the quakes. The US, China, Russia, EU, Japan, UAE, Saudi Arabia and others are sending rescue teams and aid to affected areas. Notably, Israel says it is prepared to send aid to Syria, an enemy state. Al Jazeera BBC New York Times Reuters South China Morning Post Washington Post
Asia
Xi Urges Boost to Chinese Science, Tech to Counter Western Decoupling. Chinese leader Xi Jinping told a Politburo group on Tuesday that China must accelerate efforts to achieve self-reliance in science and technology. He warned that Beijing will be “strangled by foreign countries” if it does not become a leader in cutting-edge technology and key scientific areas. His comments underscore China’s urgency to maintain its leadership in supply chains and revive its economy post-Covid amid US-led decoupling efforts. South China Morning Post
Australia Removing Chinese Security Cameras at War Memorial. Australia is removing eleven Chinese-made security cameras at a national war memorial over security concerns. Local media reports that Australian authorities worry the cameras, made by Chinese tech firm Hikvision, could be used for spying at the Australian War Memorial in Canberra. The cameras will be removed by mid-2023. South China Morning Post
North Korea’s Kim Hails Army Amid Speculation of Military Parade. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un praised the “irresistible might” of the North Korean military on Tuesday. His comments came during a visit with military officers and a banquet commemorating the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Army. Kim’s wife and daughter attended both events, which came after Kim presided over a meeting with top military leaders where he called for an expansion of North Korean forces. The events also came amid speculation that North Korea is preparing a military parade in Pyongyang to showcase new nuclear and conventional weapons capabilities. Al Jazeera CNN Reuters
Middle East & Northern Africa
Iran Unveils Underground Base In Response To US-Israel Exercises. Iran revealed its “Eagle 44” underground air force base on Tuesday. An Iranian state media report said the base can store fighter jets armed with long-range cruise missiles and drones. The report also said it is well protected from enemy attacks as it is dug deep into mountains. Separately, the Iranian army also revealed its new Asef missile, which it said are long-range, air-fired cruise missiles designed for Iran’s Russian-made Sukhoi Su-24 jets. The unveiling came two weeks after the US and Israel held large-scale joint military drills involving naval and artillery capabilities. Al Jazeera Reuters
Sub Saharan Africa
UN Calls for Investigation into Somaliland Clashes. The UN is calling for an independent investigation into recent clashes in Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland. The fighting occurred between Somaliland soldiers and fighters against the breakaway regional government seeking to rejoin Somalia. The UN says the violence killed at least 20 people and injured another 119. The UN noted that the clashes add to fighting in the region that has displaced 20,000 people from the region. AfricaNews
Cyber & Tech
World Economic Forum Warns of ‘Catastrophic’ Cyber Event in Next Two Years. The 2023 meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland ended with a warning about escalating threats in cyberspace. In a survey in the forum’s 2023 Global Cybersecurity Outlook report, 93 percent of participants predicted a “catastrophic” cyber security event will likely happen in the next two years. The report added that cyber experts predict that annual costs from cybercrime will reach $10.5 trillion in 2025. In addition to ongoing threats from phishing attacks and ransomware, the report also highlighted “mutating” threats such as AI-enabled viruses that can transform to infect more and more systems and better evade cyber defenses. The forum closed with calls to bolster core cybersecurity in organizations, address the cyber skills shortage, and foster understanding that cybersecurity is essential to business resilience to better address these threats. Forbes
Digital Theft Executive Order Expected Soon. The White House is expected to issue the Digital Theft Executive Order soon following President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address. Sources say that the EO will improve protection of US citizens’ data privacy. Those familiar with the measure say the EO will mainly encourage government agencies to use the General Services Administration-built identity management platform Login.gov to have US citizens securely log in to public services. The system is partially used by some departments as their single sign-on authentication platform made by GSA. FedScoop
DoD Says Cyber Command Lacking Evaluation Standards for Weapons Platform. The Pentagon’s chief weapons tester, the Office of the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation (DOT&E), assessed that US Cyber Command does not have an operational test and evaluation (OT&E) architecture planned or resourced. The assessment warns that the lack of this OT&E capability will limit the US Defense Department’s ability to facilitate future capability integration under the Joint Cyber Warfighting Architecture (JCWA) concept. DOT&E says Cybercom should support a Joint Interoperability Test Command to achieve a better understanding of how capabilities fit into a JCWA-level framework. DefenseScoop
Senators Seek Answers from Meta CEO on User Data Access by Russian and Chinese Developers. US Senators Mark Warner and Marco Rubio sent a letter to Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg seeking additional information related to allegations that developers in China and Russia had long-term access to significant amounts of user data. Reuters reports that the bi-partisan pair of senators cite documents which appear to show that Meta knew since 2018 that significant “sensitive user data'' could be regularly accessed by ‘hundreds of thousands’ of developers inside of Russia and China, both locations that Meta had characterized as high-risk. Reuters
Russian Ransomware Money Launderer Pleads Guilty to Involvement in Ryuk Ransomware Attacks. Russian cryptocurrency money launderer Denis Mihaqlovic Dubnikov pleaded guilty on Tuesday to attempting to hide at least $400,000 in cyber ransoms between August 2018 to August 2021. He said he received the funds from Ryuk ransomware attacks, which are tied to the Russian hacking group Wizard Spider. The US Department of Justice did not identify the specific group that employed Dubnikov’s services to launder ransom payments. CyberScoop
LockBit Ransomware Group Threatens to Release Stolen Royal Mail Data. British postal firm Royal Mail is facing a threat of having its data published to the dark web by hacking group LockBit according to multiple media sources. LockBit has threatened to publish stolen data from the firm on February 9 if it failed to receive a ransom payment. Reuters says that the company reported in an email response that its internal investigations show that stolen data did not include any financial or sensitive customer information. BleepingComputer Reuters Tech Crunch
European Bank IT Chief to Head German Cybersecurity Agency. The European Central Bank’s director general for information systems, Claudia Plattner has been appointed as Germany’s next cybersecurity chief. The German interior ministry says she will take over as head of the BSI cybersecurity agency on July 1. Plattner’s predecessor, Arne Schoenbohm, was fired in October for alleged ties to Russia’s security apparatus through a consultancy he founded. Reuters
EU Seeking Draft on AI Rules by March. EU lawmakers are reportedly seeking to agree on a draft for artificial intelligence rules under the bloc’s AI Act by early March to then seek approval by EU member states by the end of the year. The European Commission first proposed the AI rules in 2021 to set a standard for the emerging technology. A major outstanding issue is establishing the definition and security risks of “General Purpose AI.” Skeptics call for stronger regulation to tackle concerns of AI abuse while AI supporters worry restrictions will stifle innovation. Reuters
Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis and opinion in The Cipher Brief
