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Wednesday, February 22, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Biden Rallies NATO Support for Ukraine in Poland Speech.  In a major speech in Warsaw just ahead of the one-year mark of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Joe Biden pledged “unwavering” support for Kyiv and rallied allies to back Ukraine. Biden says that autocrats must not be allowed to succeed and that “Kyiv stands proud” against Russian aggression.  The speech followed a meeting with Polish President Andrzej Duda, who urged all of Europe to aid Ukraine.  Biden’s address followed a speech by Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow who reiterated his view that the West was to blame for the war, and committed to continuing the operation in Ukraine.  ( Ed. Note- Multiple media outlets and commentators are now comparing the two views of the conflict and suggesting that Vladimir Putin is living in an alternate reality.). New York Times Reuters

US Believes Russia Conducted ICBM Test During Time of Biden Visit to Ukraine.  CNN reports that Russia conducted a test of its SARMAT, nicknamed the Satan II missile around the time that President Biden was in Ukraine according to officials.  The missile, which is reportedly capable of delivering multiple nuclear warheads, appeared to have failed during the test.  US officials say that had the test been successful, it is believed that Russian President Vladimir Putin would have mentioned it during his nearly two-hour long speech in Moscow.   One official says that Russia notified the US of the test through deconfliction communication channels.  CNN

Biden Meeting with NATO Leaders in Poland. US President Joe Biden is set to meet with the leaders of the Bucharest nine, NATOs most eastern members, before leaving Poland after making a surprise visit to Kyiv. The nine countries, which came together following the 2014 invasion of Crimea, have been supporters of aid to Ukraine, and called for sending additional assistance to the country. Deutsche Welle

US Approves Extradition of Former Peruvian President.  Peru’s attorney general’s office announced Tuesday that the US State Department agreed to extradite former Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo to Peru on corruption charges.  Toledo, 76 was arrested in the US in 2019 following a formal request for extradition by Peru.  Peruvian authorities have accused Toledo of accepting bribes of more than $25 million dollars by a Brazilian construction firm, charges that Toledo denies.   Reuters

Western Europe

Meloni Says No Jets to Ukraine. Italy’s Georgia Meloni told Ukrainian President Voldomyr Zelensky that giving Ukraine fighter jets was not on the table after landing in Kyiv on Tuesday morning for talks on military aid. However, Meloni did say that Italy was considering supplying Kyiv with other air defense systems. In a press conference prior to the meetings, Meloni told reporters that “Ukraine can count on Italy.” Deutsche Welle

Netherlands Raises Russian Sabotage Threat in North Sea.  The Dutch military intelligence agency MVID said Monday that Russia has been working to gain intelligence to sabotage critical infrastructure in the Dutch part of the North Sea over the last few months.  A Dutch intelligence report noted that internet cables, gas pipelines and windmill farms in the region are at risk to Russian sabotage.  MVID pointed to an incident where Dutch coast guard vessels identified and escorted a Russian ship away from an offshore wind farm in the North Sea.  Reuters

Belgium Monitors Russian Spy Ship Operating Near Critical Infrastructure.  Belgium is investigating the presence of a Russian spy ship operating in Belgium’s North Sea according to a senior Belgium official.  The announcement comes a day after the Netherlands reported that the ship was operating and collecting intelligence near wind farms in its waters.  The Dutch navy reportedly escorted the ship from its waters.  Belgium officials say the exact purpose of the ship is unknown, but that Belgium is not “naive” and will closely monitor the ship as it operates near Belgium's critical infrastructure including energy and undersea communication facilities.  Reuters Kyiv Post

Central and Eastern Europe

ISW: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 21, 2023.Institute for the Study of War 

Zelesnkiy Says Defenses Holding in Contested Areas Despite Constant Russian Attacks.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelesnksiy says that Ukraine’s military defenses are holding in contested areas despite repeated Russian attempts to advance along multiple fronts.  In the area around Bakhmut, which has seen some of the heaviest fighting Russian officials stated that Russian military units made incremental advances, however they have been unable to force a Ukrainian retreat despite having reached a road that was considered a key logistics route, over a week ago.  Zelesnkiy says that Ukrainian forces were defending against a non-stop assault from Russian forces, who were sustaining ‘staggering losses’.  Reuters

Putin Revokes Decree for Moldova Sovereignty in Separatist Conflict.  Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday overturned a 2012 decree that in principle expressed Moscow’s support for Moldova’s sovereignty.  The decree, described as a Russian foreign policy document, related to resolving the conflict with Moldova over the Russian-backed separatist region of Transnistria.  The Kremlin says Putin overturned the decree, which more widely called for closer relations between Moscow and the West, to “ensure the national interests of Russia.” Moldovan officials say that the cancellation of the decree does not mean that Russia no longer respects Moldovan sovereignty.  However, the announcement is the latest anti-Western move by Moscow and comes amid escalating tensions between the pro-Western government of Moldova and Russia.  Reuters

Relations with Russia are ‘Rock Solid' Says Chinese Diplomat. China’s top diplomat Wang Yi met with Russia’s security chief Nikolai Patrushev in Moscow on Tuesday. During the visit, Wang apparently urged coordination to resist Western pressures between the two countries. Wang also reaffirmed China’s support for Russia and that relations between the two countries are rock solid.  Later in the day Yi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin where he also said that relations between the two countries are not subject to “pressure from third parties” in a veiled reference to the United States.  Deutsche Welle  South China Morning Post 

Asia

Taiwan’s President Announces Plan to Bolster Military Cooperation with the US.  Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen says the US and Taiwan will bolster military cooperation to counter “authoritarian expansionism”.  Her comments came at the end of a meeting with a US congressional delegation led by California representative Ro Khanna.  Tsai did not provide details on what the new cooperation would look like.  The US delegation also discussed improving ties with Taiwan’s semiconductor industry.  Deutsche Welle

China Raises Concerns Over Japan Military Buildup.  Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong said on Wednesday that Beijing is concerned over Japan’s recent military buildup and increase in defense spending.  Sun’s remarks came at the start of security talks in Tokyo with Japanese Minister for Foreign Affairs Shigeo Yamada.  The meeting aims to ease tensions between China and Japan amid increasing concerns over conflict in the Taiwan Strait.  Reuters

US, Australia and Philippines Discuss Joint South China Sea Patrols.  Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles says that Australia is discussing joint maritime operations with the Philippines.  Marles comments came during a meeting with his Filipino counterpart in Manila.  US Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Michael Gilday was also in Manila where he told reporters that the US is also planning for joint maritime operations with the Philippines.  The announcement comes less than two weeks after the Philippines accused a Chinese maritime vessel of using a military grade laser against a Philippine Coast Guard vessel.  China claims much of the South China Sea and surrounding waters, while the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei maintain overlapping claims.  Reuters  France24

India Does Not Want New G20 Sanctions on Russia.  Indian sources at the meeting of G20 finance officials in the southern city of Bengaluru say that India does not want to consider imposing additional sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.  The sources say that India, which holds the G20 presidency this year, will discuss ways to address the Ukraine war’s impact on the global economy, but does not want more sanctions on Moscow since it reportedly believes that existing ones have also had a negative impact.  India has been neutral on the Ukraine war, declining to blame Moscow over the conflict and maintaining economic ties with Russia, especially in military equipment purchases.  Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa

Israeli Raid in West Bank Kills 10 Palestinians, Injures Over 100.  An Israeli raid in the West Bank city of Nablus killed at least 10 Palestinians and injured another 102 on Wednesday.  The Palestinian Health Ministry said most of the people injured were hit by live ammunition.  The Israeli army said the raid targeted two members of the armed group Lion’s Den and a member of the extremist militant group Islamic Jihad.  Palestinian armed groups said four of those killed in the raid were militants, including an Islamic Jihad commander.  The raid is one of the deadliest Israeli operations in the occupied West Bank in years.  Al Jazeera Washington Post

Damascus Rocket Strike Reportedly Hit Iranian, Syrian Military Expert Meeting.  Sources told Reuters that the recent missile strike on Damascus that Syria blamed on Israel hit a meeting of Iranian and Syrian military experts.  Sources said the meeting included Iranian and Syrian technical experts in drones and missiles, and that one Syrian engineer and one Iranian official were killed in the attack.  One source added that an Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps expert in missiles was seriously injured and transferred back to Tehran for treatment.  Israel has declined to confirm or deny if it was behind the strike, which came amid escalating tensions over Iran’s influence and activities in Syria.  Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

Three Senegalese UN Peacekeepers Killed in Mali.  Three Senegalese UN peacekeepers were killed and another five injured when their convoy hit an improvised explosive device in central Mali.  The deaths were the latest losses to Mali’s UN peacekeeping mission MINUSMA, which has been battling Islamist insurgents since 2013.  Reuters UN News

Cyber & Tech

Russian State Media Outlets Suffer Outages During Putin Speech.  Several Russian state media websites reportedly suffered outages on Tuesday while they broadcasted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech to the Russian parliament.  Reuters confirms that the websites were not accessible during the speech.  The RIA Novosti news agency claimed the disruption was caused by a distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack.  Reuters

Top DHS Official Backs Further US Cyber Collaboration.  Rob Silvers, the Under Secretary of Homeland Security for Strategy, Policy, and Plans, told Politico that Ukraine’s strong cyber defenses against Russian cyberattacks underscores the importance of cyber cooperation.  Silvers said that DHS has long supported Ukraine’s computer emergency response team and that the Biden administration wants to apply this “operational cyber defense partnership” to other partners and allies.  He highlighted the recent White House-led international ransomware initiative, cybersecurity deals with Abraham Accords signatories, and the new cyber defense deal with Japan as evidence of US cyber collaboration efforts.  Politico

Arizona Positioning Itself to Receive CHIPS Act Funding.  Arizona is working to ensure it receives a portion of the $52 billion in funding for semiconductor manufacturing and research under the CHIPS Act.  Arizona is in a good position to receive a portion of the funding, as it has led US chip investments since 2020 and has strong relationships and agreements for new chip plants with Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.  Arizona also helped shape and lobby for the CHIPS Act.  The Commerce Department is expected to start taking applications for the chip funding in the coming days, and Arizona is setting itself up as a strong candidate to benefit.  New York Times

Irish Broadcaster Suffers ‘Major Hack.’  Ireland’s Virgin Media Television reports that it suffered a “major hack” and that it has been “fully contained, isolated and terminated.” Some broadcasting was disrupted from the hack.  Irish cyber authorities say they are investigating the incident.  The Independent

Hack of Asian Data Centers Poses Risk of Sabotage or Cyber Espionage Against Global Companies.  Bloomberg reports that a 2021 hack of two major data storage firms in Shanghai represent a major risk to global corporations who rely on outsourced data storage.  The hack, which reportedly resulted in the theft of login credentials related to some of the world’s largest companies including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., BMW AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc and others represents a significant risk of cyber espionage or future sabotage according to western cybersecurity experts.  Both of the companies involved say investigations are ongoing and that the stolen credentials did not pose a risk to their customers' IT systems. Bloomberg

Chinese Military Engineers Claim Successful Test of ‘Phantom Space Strike’ Concept.  A team of Chinese military engineers claim to have successfully conducted a computer simulation of a new space weapon.  The concept, known as ‘phantom space strike,’ seeks to overwhelm an enemy missile defense system by creating fake target signals from space.  The Chinese engineers say the experiment was successful and the project will proceed into further development.  Results of the test were originally published on Feb 10 in the Journal of Electronics and Information Technology.  South China Morning Post 

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