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Wednesday, February 1, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security and delivers it to your inbox M–F. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas…

US Reportedly Preparing $2 Billion Ukraine Military Aid Package.  US officials told Reuters that the US is preparing to announce a new Ukraine military aid package worth over $2 billion.  The new package will include Boeing’s Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), which has a range of 94 miles and is the first longer-range rocket given by the US to Kyiv.  The aid will also include support for Patriot air defense systems, PUMA drones and Javelin anti-tank weapons, as well as a significant amount of communications, surveillance and medical equipment.  One official added that most of the funds will come from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which buys arms directly from industry instead of pulling from US weapons stocks.  Bloomberg Reuters

Biden to Discuss China, Russia ‘Challenges’ in State of Union Address.  President Joe Biden will raise “challenges” posed by Russia and China in his upcoming annual State of the Union speech next week.  National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Biden has rallied international allies to meet these challenges and wants to discuss these issues with the American people, especially amid the Ukraine war.  The address will come after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets his Chinese counterpart in Beijing, where Blinken will reportedly seek to restart bilateral dialogues with Beijing.  South China Morning Post

FBI Searched Biden Office After Classified Documents Found.  The FBI searched President Joe Biden’s former private office shortly after his lawyers found classified documents there in November.  Sources say Biden’s lawyers cooperated with the search and that a search warrant was not sought.  It is still unclear if this previously undisclosed FBI sweep discovered additional classified materials.  The White House did announce the FBI’s later, consensual search of Biden’s home in Delaware on January 20.  CBS News CNN New York Times

National Archives Releases Records Related to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Documents.  In other news about classified documents, the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) released documents related to its retrieval of presidential records from former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence.  NARA released the documents in response to a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit filed by Bloomberg News and others.  NARA also released heavily redacted emails with relevant authorities about its retrieval of the documents.  Bloomberg National Archives

US, Russia Clash Over Only Remaining Nuclear Arms Treaty.  A State Department spokesperson said Tuesday that Russia is violating the New START nuclear arms treaty through its continued refusal to allow US inspections of Russian nuclear facilities.  In addition to the inspections, the treaty is meant to regulate the number of intercontinental-range nuclear missiles the US and Russia have.  Russia suspended inspections under the treaty in August due to travel restrictions from US sanctions on Moscow.  The US and Russia were set to discuss the treaty in Egypt in November, but the US says Russia “unilaterally postponed” the dialogue, a move that Moscow blamed on US efforts to change the balance of nuclear forces by manipulating the deal.  CNN New York Times Wall Street Journal

US, India Launch Joint Defense, Tech Initiative.  The US and India formally established a high-level initiative on critical and emerging technologies, or iCET, on Tuesday.  White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval in Washington to launch the initiative, which he called “a strategic bet” that will deepen US-India defense ties and foster high tech collaboration between democracies amid competition with China and concerns over Russia.  Areas for collaboration under the initiative include support for semiconductor supply chains, jet engine production and defense systems development.  Washington Post

Western Europe

UK’S Sunak to Accelerate Ukraine Support, Says Stalemate Favors Russia.  British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said in a cabinet meeting on Tuesday that a “prolonged stalemate” in the Ukraine war “would only benefit Russia.”  Sunak says he came to this conclusion after becoming Prime Minister, leading him to support accelerating the UK’s support for Ukraine.  Part of the new UK strategy for supporting Ukraine will reportedly include increased diplomatic efforts and planning for reconstruction after the war.  CNN

Central and Eastern Europe

ISW Update on Ukraine War January 31, 2023.  Here is the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine war update for January 31, 2023.  ISW

Russia Claims Advances in Eastern Ukrainian Town Near Bakhmut.  The Russian military claims it has taken the eastern Ukrainian town of Blahodatne, just north of the embattled city of Bakhmut.  The claim comes days after Russia’s Wagner Group said it had taken the town, though Ukraine maintains that it is repelling attacks in the area.  Ukraine reports a major Russian military push in the area, with one Ukrainian commander reporting that Russian airborne units have joined in the fight for Bakhmut.  Experts say the escalating fighting in the region could be part of a larger Russian assault on eastern Ukraine, though it is unclear if Russian efforts will yield a significant breakthrough.  CNN Deutsche Welle New York Times Reuters Wall Street Journal

Ukraine Intel Chief Says Crimea Will be Retaken.  The Washington Post recently spoke with Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Major General Kyrylo Budanov about his predictions for this year.  He is one the few Ukrainian officials who accurately predicted that Russia would invade and attempt to seize Kyiv in February 2022, while most Ukrainian officials believed a Russian attack would be confined to eastern Ukraine.  Budanov says that this year, Russia will focus on advancing in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions.  He also said that Ukraine must do everything in its power to retake Crimea by the summer, adding that he believes Ukraine will achieve this and that nuclear threats from Russian President Vladimir Putin are “scare tactics”.  Budanov added that he does not think a new offensive out of Belarus is likely and that such threats are only meant to distract Ukrainian forces.  Budanov, who is in charge of military and intelligence operations abroad, also indicated that more attacks on military targets in Russian territory are likely and that Ukraine has agents and allies working inside Russia.  Washington Post

Ukraine to Host EU-Ukraine Summit.  Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal says that Ukraine will host a Ukraine-European summit in Kyiv on Friday.  While he did not provide details on who is attending, he said that the summit will show Europe’s support for Ukraine’s accession into the EU and demonstrate that efforts to divide Ukraine’s partners and stop Kyiv’s alignment with the West are futile.  CNN

Baltic Leaders Support Sending Fighter Aircraft to Ukraine.  Leaders of some Baltic nations and Poland expressed support for sending fighter aircraft to Ukraine on Monday.  Speaking at a regional meeting in Latvia, Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu says “Ukraine needs fighter jets ... missiles, tanks. We need to act,”.  These comments come amid a larger debate that has seen the US and UK balk on the idea of sending jets.  French President Emmanuel Macron has left open the possibility saying he could not rule out the idea of providing aircraft.  Associated Press Deutsche Welle 

Putin’s Former Speechwriter Says Russia Coup Possible.  Abbas Gallyamov, the former speechwriter for Russian President Vladimir Putin, told CNN that a military coup in Russia is becoming increasingly possible.  He said that as Western sanctions continue to degrade the Russian economy and Russian forces suffer more losses in Ukraine, Russians will look to blame someone and turn on Putin.  Gallyamov added that a potential coup could happen in the next 12 months and that Putin could declare martial law and cancel presidential elections scheduled in March 2024 if his power is threatened.  CNN

Russia, Iran Link Banking Systems Amid Western Sanctions.  The deputy governor of Iran’s central bank, Mohsen Karimi, told Iranian state media that Iranian banks can now use Russian bank messaging services to conduct international transactions while bypassing most of the global banking system.  Moscow has not confirmed the deal, though representatives from Russia’s central bank are set to visit Tehran to finalize the agreement.  The development is part of efforts to integrate Iran and Russia’s banking systems to deal with Western sanctions, which include the restriction of Iranian and Russian banks from the SWIFT messaging system.  New York Times

Asia

Missing Radioactive Capsule in Australia Found.  Australian authorities have found a radioactive capsule that went missing in Western Australia after a six-day search.  The capsule, which contains Caesium-137, was lost while en route to a storage facility in Western Australia’s capital of Perth.  Search teams found the capsule close to the Rio Tinto mine it left from, suggesting it fell from its transport soon after departure.  Rio Tinto expressed gratitude for the capsule’s recovery and again apologized for its loss.  CNN New York Times

Middle East and Northern Africa

US Sanctions Iranian Firms for Building Drones for Russia.  The US Commerce Department added seven Iranian organizations to its “entities list” on Tuesday.  The targeted organizations are accused of manufacturing drones for Russia to use in its invasion of Ukraine.  Suppliers will now be required to have licenses to deal with the sanctioned entities.  Iran’s mission to the UN criticized the trade restrictions, saying that downed drones in Ukraine contain Western-made parts rather than Iranian ones.  Reuters

Iran Anti-Government Protests Shifting to Quieter Acts of Resistance.  Anti-government protests in Iran have largely tapered off due to an intense crackdown by the Iranian government.  Small demonstrations still occur, but as people are less willing to risk their lives for the anti-government movement, protests are now shifting to quieter acts of rebellion.  This is most evidently seen in the thousands of women in Tehran walking outdoors without the compulsory headscarf,  the hijab.  Experts say this discontent, especially amongst young Iranians and Iranian women, will be difficult to contain and could easily fuel disruptive protests again in the future.  Wall Street Journal

CNN Exclusive: Netanyahu Discusses Palestine, Iran.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a CNN interview on Tuesday that it is wrong to get “hung up” on peace talks with Palestine, saying that the Arab-Israeli conflict must first be resolved before reaching a “workable peace with the Palestinians.”  He highlighted the Abraham Accords, which he said allowed Israel to work around Palestine to reach peace agreements directly with Arab states.  His comments came amid escalating violence between Israel and Palestine and after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Israel, where he reiterated the Biden administration’s support for a two-state solution.  Regarding Iran, Netanyahu said that a combination of economic sanctions and a “credible military threat” is the only way to discourage Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.  He also refused to confirm or deny if Israel was behind a recent drone attack on a military facility in the central Iranian city of Ishafan.  CNN

Sub Saharan Africa

UN Seeks Investigation Into Possible Wagner Group, Mali War Crimes.  UN rights experts released a statement on Tuesday calling for an independent investigation into possible war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by the Malian military and Russia’s Wagner Group.  The statement refers to reports that Mali and Wagner personnel massacred hundreds of people in a town in central Mali in March, along with a host of other alleged abuses.  The Malian military junta denies any wrongdoing in the March massacre, which it called a military operation.  Mali also says it has employed Russian forces strictly to train Malian troops on equipment bought from Russia.  Wagner did not comment on the UN experts’ statement.  Reuters UN News

Belarus President Visits Zimbabwe.  Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is visiting Zimbabwe, a fellow ally of Russia.  Lukashenko has offered the southern African country tractors and other agricultural vehicles as part of a $66 million farm mechanization program.  Lukashenko told reporters during the visit that Belarus is prepared to offer more assistance to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine as needed.  Zimbabwe, like many other African countries, has not condemned Moscow for the war and is calling for dialogue.  AfricaNews Reuters

Twelve Security Officials Killed in Burkina Faso.  Officials in Burkina Faso say that 12 security officers were killed on Monday in clashes between the military and islamic jihadists.  The incident took place in the country’s Sahel region and comes amid ongoing violence that has racked the country in recent years, killing thousands and reportedly displaced over 2 million people.  France24

Cyber and Tech

US Says Abraham Accords to Expand and Include Cybersecurity Collaboration.  The Washington Post writes that an agreement originally signed under the Trump administration between the US and some Middle East and Northern Africa partners is set to expand and will include cybersecurity.  Rob Silvers Department of Homeland Security Undersecretary for Strategy, Policy and Plans says the deal, known as the Abraham Accords will formally expand to include cybersecurity coordination between the US, Israel, Morocco, the UAE and Bahrain.  Silvers cited threats from Iran as a key factor in the discussions.  An area of concern among some is the reported abuse of spyware by Morocco, Bahrain and the UAE to target human rights activists and political opposition.  Washington Post 

US Government and Industry Cyber Officials Warn of Surge in Healthcare Cyber Attacks.  US Government and Industry officials are warning that Russian hacking group Killnet is surging cyberattacks in recent days that appear to target hospitals and the healthcare system.  Officials from the Health and Human Services (HHC) cyber coordination center and cyber advisors for the American Hospital Association (AHA) say that several US hospitals and healthcare systems have been hit with Distributed Denial of Service (DDOS) attacks in recent days.  The officials have not disclosed which specific organizations have been affected.  GovInfoSecurity

TSA Issues Cyber Alert to US Airline Industry Following No-Fly List Leak. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) has issued a directive to US airports and airlines to increase cybersecurity following the leak of a 2019 no-fly list.  The list, published by a Swiss blogger, was reportedly found on an unsecured server and published to the internet.  TSA officials say they are investigating the incident but have warned the US airline industry to reinforce the existing requirements surrounding the protection of sensitive personal information and cybersecurity practices.  The Record 

DARPA Says US Now Has Two “Feasible” Scramjet Hypersonic Missiles.  The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) says that it has completed its final test flight of an advanced hypersonic missile trial, known as the Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapons Concept (HAWC).  In a press release DARPA says the final test flight occurred earlier this month in an undisclosed location and involved a Lockheed Martin variant powered by a Aerojet Rocketdyne scramjet engine.  The agency says the weapon flew more than 300 nautical miles, reached greater than 60,000 feet altitude at speeds above Mach 5.  DARPA has also been testing a Raytheon variant weapon powered by a Northrop Grumman engine and says the US now has two “feasible” scramjet hypersonic weapon designs to further develop and mature.  DARPA says it has plans for a follow on program that will include building and flying more scramjet vehicles.  Defense Scoop 

Air Force Awards Quantum Navigation R&D Contract to Sandbox AQ.  The Air Force has chosen Sandbox AQ, a tech company spinoff from Alphabet to lead a new research program that seeks to develop new capabilities around aircraft navigation using a combination of artificial intelligence and quantum computing.  A DefenseScoop article cites an Air Force contract award announced on Monday under a new award type known as Direct to Phase-II Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR).  The program seeks to develop navigation tools known as Magnetic Anomaly Navigation (MAGNAV) that use the earth’s magnetic field as a signal to navigate with.  Sandbox AQ was launched inside of Alphabet’s Sandbox division which was created to advance quantum capabilities.  Defense Scoop   

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