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Tuesday, May 9, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Authorities Investigate Texas Gunman’s Links to Violent Far-Right Extremism.   Mauricio Garcia, the gunman responsible for killing eight people in a shooting at an outlet mall in Allen, Texas had previously been discharged from the military. According to an army spokesperson, Garcia had joined the Army in June 2008, but was dishonorably discharged after three months for failing to finish initial training. According to another army official, Garcia was discharged over an unspecified mental health issue. Prior to the shooting, Garcia reportedly posted photographs of the mall on social media, in addition to posts on the Russian social media platform Odnoklassniki where he ‘fantasized’ about a race war. He was also wearing a patch linked to far-right extremists during the shooting.  Authorities have yet to say what they believe may have motivated him to carry out the attack.  Associated Press Washington Post

Man Charged with Manslaughter in Brownsville, Texas, Crash that Killed 8. George Alvarez, a Brownsville, Texas resident, has been charged with manslaughter after driving his car into a crowd of migrants on Sunday morning. The crash killed eight people and injured 10. According to police, Alvarez has a history of arrest, ranging from assault charges to driving under the influence. Police have not been able to determine whether or not the crash was intentional, as Alvarez is not cooperating with police at this time.  Washington Post

Canada Expels Chinese Diplomat for Targeting Lawmaker.  Canada on Monday expelled a Toronto-based Chinese diplomat accused of targeting a Canadian lawmaker.  According to a report from the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, the diplomat, Zhao Wei, played a role in efforts to gather information on the lawmaker, Michael Chong, and his family after he criticized China’s alleged abuses against Uighurs in its Xinjiang region in 2021.  Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly announced the move to declare Zhao persona non grata, adding that Canada “will not tolerate any form of foreign interference in our internal affairs.”  China’s embassy in Ottawa lodged an official protest of the expulsion and warned Beijing “will resolutely take countermeasures,” which experts say will likely be the expulsion of a Canadian diplomat from China.  Bloomberg CBC CNN Reuters

CFIUS Proposes Review of Property Sales Near 8 Additional Military Bases.  The Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS) on Friday proposed eight more military installations to a list of 40 other sites which are sensitive enough that foreign entities and individuals seeking to acquire real estate near them will need US government approval.  The proposed additions include the Grand Forks Air Force Base in North Dakota, which is less than 15 miles from the site of a $700 million agribusiness facility planned by Fufeng USA, which was canceled due to national security concerns.  Foreign property acquisitions within 100 miles of the locations on the list must be approved by CFIUS.  The proposal to expand the list comes amid heightened concern over foreign interference and espionage, especially from China.  Forbes South China Morning Post

Pentagon’s AI Department Resuming JDAC2 Experiments.  The Pentagon’s Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office (CDAO) is restarting Global Information Dominance Experiments (GIDE) to support its development of a unified coordination network known as Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2).  GIDE adds to the military’s efforts to utilize AI in widespread data integration.  Three new iterations of GIDE will be tested at multiple installations around the world throughout this year.  C4ISRNET 

Western Europe

Germany’s Scholz Says EU Not to Be ‘Intimidated’ by Russia.  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Tuesday that the EU will not be intimidated by Russia’s “show of force” at its Victory Day celebrations.  Speaking to the European Parliament, Scholz said that the bloc must “ stay steadfast in our support for Ukraine” for as long as needed despite Russian “power plays.”  France 24 Reuters

Switzerland Holds Large Scale Military Drills.  Switzerland is holding major military drills in a showcase of its self-defense capabilities, which define its position of “armed neutrality.”  The drills, one of Switzerland’s largest in over three decades, involve 4,000 troops and involve live-fire exercises rehearsing the response to invasion by a fictional enemy.  Swiss military officials say the drills are not in response to the Ukraine war, but that the conflict has made such exercises more relevant.  European countries are urging Switzerland to offer some support to Kyiv, such as by banning arms exports to conflict zones, but Swiss officials have expressed concern that any such moves would end the country’s neutrality.  Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Russia Launches More Missiles, Drones Across Ukraine.  Russia’s defense ministry on Tuesday said Russian forces launched missile strikes across Ukraine overnight.  The ministry said the attacks targeted Ukrainian barracks and ammunition depots and successfully disrupted movement of reserves and ammunition supply lines.  Ukrainian officials say air defenses shot down 23 of 25 Russian cruise missiles fired mostly at the capital Kyiv area in the attacks.  The missile strikes came after Ukraine said it downed over two dozen drones launched at Kyiv on Monday.  Reuters Wall Street Journal

Von der Leyen visits Kyiv to Mark Europe Day.  European Commission President Ursula Von der Layen visited Kyiv on Tuesday to mark the celebration of Europe Day.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelesnkiy says the two talked about European integration, defense issues and sanctions against Russia.  Von der Layen’s visit to Ukraine’s capital comes amid a fresh round of missile strikes targeting the capital.  Zelenskiy also urged the EU to speed up ammunition deliveries and repeated calls for Ukraine to be admitted to the EU. The visit marks Von der Layen’s fifth trip to Kyiv since the war began.  Deutsche Welle

Ukraine Shells Russian Border Region, Governor Claims.  Ukrainian forces allegedly shelled Russia’s western border region of Belgorod on Monday, according to the region’s governor Vyacheslav Gladkov.  Gladkov said the attacks hit the town of Shebekino in southern Belgorod and at least five other towns, injuring at least five people and damaging residential areas.  Gladkov later added that Russian air defense systems downed a drone over the town of Valukyi.  Ukraine has not commented on the attacks; Ukraine almost never claims responsibility for attacks in Russia, though it has said it is targeting Russian-controlled infrastructure ahead of an anticipated offensive.  Reuters

Putin Says ‘Real War’ Being Waged Against Russia.  Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that the “real war” is being waged against Russia.  Speaking in Red Square as part of Victory Day celebrations, Putin said the West is wrongfully targeting Russia as it has forgotten the Soviet Union’s role in the victory against Nazi Germany in World War Two.  Putin added that he wishes to have a peaceful future, while also asserting that the entire Russian country is united in the “sacred” fight with the West over Ukraine.  Associated Press Reuters Washington Post

Russia Cuts Back on Victory Day Celebrations Over Security, Unrest Concerns.  Russia has scaled back annual Victory Day celebrations planned for Tuesday over security concerns. Military leaders justified cancellations by saying military units that could participate in parades are more useful being deployed to Ukraine.  A particularly notable cancellation is that of the nationwide “Immortal Regiment” march where ordinary Russians march to honor their veteran relatives.  While officials say this cancellation is to avoid large gatherings as a precaution against attacks, analysts say it may also be to avoid having thousands of Russians gather to highlight those recently killed in the Ukraine war.  Such a show could devolve into mass unrest as the true cost of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine is put on full display.  New York Times 

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant Operations Suspended Ahead of Expected Ukrainian Offensive.  Operations at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine have been suspended.  Russian state news agency TASS reported on the development, citing the Russian-installed governor of occupied areas in Zaporizhzhia, who said the “nuclear reactors have been suspended” in case of “provocations” from Ukrainian forces.  His comments likely refer to the anticipated Ukrainian offensive, which experts say may include pushes into the Zaporizhzhia region.  IAEA chief Rafael Grossi has said the area around the plant has become “potentially dangerous” and that the plant’s reactors are in “cold shutdown,” which means that while they are not producing electricity, they still contain nuclear material.  Reuters

Russian Evacuations of Occupied Areas Cause Confusion, Chaos.  Evacuation orders in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine ahead of the anticipated Ukrainian offensive have reportedly caused confusion and chaos.  According to residents in occupied areas of the Zaporizhzia and Kherson regions, the evacuation orders have sparked panic buying and looting.  Some residents added that many people do not appear to be adhering to the evacuation orders.  Evacuations in the town of Enerhodar, where many workers at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant live, have been particularly chaotic; IAEA chief Rafael Grossi has warned that evacuations and disruptions in the town could increase the risk of an accident at the nuclear plant.  The Ukrainian military says Russia is moving evacuees to “recreation centers” in the southern coastal cities of Berdiansk and Prymorsk, adding that the first to have been evacuated are those who adopted Russian citizenship at the start of the occupation.  New York Times

Wagner Group Chief Claims Promised Ammunition Has Not Arrived from Moscow.  Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group, claimed on Tuesday that ammunition promised by Moscow has still not arrived. The Wagner forces have for months been embroiled in a bitter battle for the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. Prigozhin said he would report more details of the shipment delay later, as he did not want to “spoil” the Victory Day celebrations.  In addition to comments about ammunition supplies, Prigozhin also made unspecified references to a “happy Grandfather” who mistakenly thinks the war is going well, possibly referring to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu or Valery Gerasimov, the chief of Russia’s General Staff.  Reuters 

USAID Chief to Visit Serbia, Kosovo.  The head of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), Samantha Power is visiting Serbia and Kosovo to help facilitate talks between the two countries.  USAID said Power, who is the first USAID chief to visit Serbia, will meet the prime ministers and presidents of both countries to encourage them to continue efforts to normalize relations and progress towards EU membership.  Power’s visit comes after the EU brought the heads of Serbia and Kosovo together for talks in Brussels last week aimed at maintaining peaceful dialogue.  Ethnic tensions between Serbia and Kosovo, which split from Serbia in the 1990s, have rebounded since the start of the Ukraine war.  Associated Press 

Asia and Oceania

China Dismisses Canadian Envoy in Retaliation for Expulsion of Chinese Official.  China is expelling the top Canadian diplomat in Shanghai in response to Canada’s decision to declare persona non grata a Chinese diplomat accused of targeting a Canadian lawmaker.  China’s Foreign Ministry says that the Canadian diplomat, Jennifer Lynn Lalonde must leave by May 13, adding that the expulsion is a “reciprocal countermeasure to Canada’s unscrupulous move” and that Beijing “reserves the right to take further actions in response.”  Canada’s Embassy in Beijing has not responded to the development.  Associated Press Bloomberg South China Morning Post

Former Pakistan PM Khan Arrested.  Pakistani police arrested former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan during a court appearance in Islamabad on Tuesday.  Officials say Khan was arrested in relation to corruption charges against him and that he will appear before an anti-graft tribunal.  Members of Khan’s legal team and his Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party say police violently arrested Khan, hitting him in the head and kicking him.  Supporters of Khan’s PTI party have since taken to the streets across Pakistan in protest.  Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif did not directly address Khan’s arrest, but tweeted that Khan is seeking to “overturn the legal and political system” and has used a November shooting attack against him to undermine the authority of the military.  Al Jazeera

China Investigating Foreign Consulting Firms for Potential Spying.  Chinese state media signaled that Chinese authorities are investigating potential espionage from due-diligence consulting firms serving Western companies in the country.  Various state news outlets said that due to Western pressure, the consulting firms have ignored Chinese security concerns and stretched the legal limits of the gathering of sensitive information; CCTV went as far as saying that some consultants have engaged in “spying, buying and extorting state secrets and intelligence.”  These consulting firms are essential to ensuring Western businesses in China can operate, but they are now under suspicion by Chinese authorities as part of Beijing’s efforts to minimize foreign influence and gain stronger control of data and online activities.  Many of the targeted consulting companies, some of which have had their employees detained for questioning, released statements saying they are committed to complying with Chinese law.  The news reports add that China encourages these consulting firms to continue to work to facilitate areas like international trade, though it will continue to increase scrutiny of the industry.  Wall Street Journal

Chinese Military Calls for ‘High Alert’ Over US, Japan, South Korea Ties.  An article in China’s People’s Liberation Army’s official paper called for Chinese forces to be put on “high alert” amid escalating defense cooperation between the US, Japan and South Korea.  The article said the trilateral cooperation, seen in joint drills and weapons programs and intelligence-sharing efforts, between the US and South Korea as well as the improving of ties between Seoul and Tokyo, pose a risk to regional security.  The article warns the three countries could create a ‘Five Eyes’ intelligence grouping and that their military coordination will trigger a regional arms race.  South China Morning Post

Myanmar Aid Convoy Including ASEAN Officials Fired On.  Gunmen on Sunday opened fire on a humanitarian aid convoy in Myanmar which included diplomats from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Indonesia and Singapore.  Officials say the attack, which took place in the western Shan State, resulted in an exchange of fire and that there were no casualties.  No group claimed responsibility for the attack, though Myanmar state media blamed the incident on “terrorists.”  Myanmar’s shadow National Unity Government said it was not involved.  Singapore condemned the attack, as did Indonesian President Joko Widodo, who called it a “shootout” and added that the incident would not deter ASEAN efforts to find a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Myanmar.  Associated Press Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa

Israeli Air Strikes on Gaza Strip Kill 12, Including Palestinian Armed Group Commanders. A series of Israeli air strikes carried out in the early hours of Tuesday have killed at least 13 people, including members of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) movement. The PIJ has confirmed that three of its commanders were killed in the strikes, along with their wives and children, and that they promise to “avenge” their killings. They did not provide details on the number of women and children killed. Gaza’s Ministry of Health has reported that at least 20 others were injured.  Al Jazeera Associated Press Reuters 

EU Cancels Israel Diplomatic Event Over Far-Right Minister’s Involvement. The European Union (EU) has canceled its planned Europe Day event in Israel due to the involvement of far-right Israeli Minister of National Security Itmar Ben-Gvir, who was assigned to represent the Israeli government at the event. According to the EU delegation’s statement on Twitter, the decision to cancel is due to not wanting to give a platform to anyone whose views and positions contradict EU values. Ben-Gvir has previously been convicted of supporting terrorism and incitement of violence against Palestinians, in addition to supporting West Bank settlements. He has also widely called for the displacement of Palestinians.  Al Jazeera 

Sub Saharan Africa

Six Members of Danish Oil Tanker Rescued after Pirate Kidnapping on West African Coast. Six kidnapped members of a Danish oil tanker that was captured by pirates off the Republic of Congo last month have been rescued in Nigeria, according to the owner of the ship. The ship had 16 sailors on board when it was attacked by pirates on March 25, but only six were kidnapped while the other 10 managed to remain on board. They were discovered the first week of March by the French navy in the Gulf of Guinea, where they told officials that the other crew members were kidnapped. There are no details as to whether or not a ransom was paid for the recovery.  Al Jazeera 

Armed Men Abduct 40 Churchgoers in Nigeria.  According to a local Christian association, an armed gang of bandits kidnapped 40 people from a church in the small village of Madala in the northwestern region of Nigeria. Fifteen people were able to escape Sunday evening, but the rest have not been heard from. Abductions have increased recently in northern Nigeria, where government forces are sparse and gangs pursuing ransoms have grown bolder.  Reuters 

Cyber and Tech

Congress Debating Raft of Tech Regulation Bills.  Congress is considering a range of potential measures to regulate the ever advancing tech industry.  Several bills focus on boosting children’s online safety; proposals include increasing transparency of social media companies, requiring settings to better shield children from certain content, and even a bill to ban minors under 13 from using social media platforms.  Other legislation addresses data privacy concerns; measures aim to restrict access to personal data of children and teens and increase user control of their data under a “national privacy standard.”  A series of bills look at banning or severely curtailing TikTok, and other foreign apps and technology, due to security and privacy concerns over the app’s Chinese roots.  More novel legislation addresses questions on regulating artificial intelligence; measures aim to balance concerns over potential abuses of the emerging technology with calls to ensure the US leads global AI development.  Associated Press CyberScoop

China Overtaking US on AI Regulation.  Despite recognition in Washington to regulate the development of artificial intelligence, China appears to be overtaking the US in actually doing so.  China is set to finalize a second iteration of generative AI regulations on Wednesday, adding to rules on deep fakes passed in 2022.  Experts say China wants the regulations to increase government control of AI to minimize social disruptions from the new tech.  The measures will also facilitate AI use in government-linked companies and boost trust in AI to encourage adoption of consumer-facing AI.  Also, with a strong regulatory foundation, China is better preparing itself to lead on AI exports and innovate without relying on others.  However, experts note that the regulations could potentially slow AI innovation, which may offer an advantage to the US, which is allowing a more lax regulatory environment for AI development.  Axios 

AI Researchers in Developing Countries Urge Support from US, China.  Amid discussions on the competition between the US and China over AI development, experts warn the benefits of the new technology will be unequally spread across the world unless others besides Washington and Beijing participate in both AI innovation and regulation.  This was a major topic at the first major AI research conference in Africa last week.  Researchers from Africa and those from other developing countries said they are focused on potential ways to use AI to address disparities and development issues in their nations.  They warn that their countries will not be able to tap the potential of AI if development of the emerging technology remains in the US and China and are urging greater consideration of those beyond the West and East Asia in ways including allowing more visas for African researchers and including African languages in AI models.  Wall Street Journal 

Europe Wants Satellite Megaconstellation to Compete with Starlink. Europe is preparing to launch its own satellite constellation that will compete with SpaceX’s Starlink network.  Several space and telecommunication companies are preparing to bid on the project, including Airbus Defense and Space, Eutelsat, SES, and Thales Alenia Space., which have formed a partnership. The project, dubbed the Infrastructure for Resilience, Interconnectivity, and Security by Satellite, was announced in 2022 and will help provide internet connectivity from low earth orbit to the European Union.  Space.com

TikTok Security Flaw May Expose User Activity to Anyone. Cybersecurity researchers at the IT company Imperva have uncovered a flaw in TikTok that could allow anyone to access sensitive data from user devices that could then be used for identity theft, phishing scams, or for blackmail. The vulnerability was found in the way the app handles incoming messages; the flaw allowed malicious parties to send a message through the TikTok web application through a software called PostMessage API which would avoid security measures. The vulnerability has since been addressed.  TechRadar 

Op-Ed: We Need a Manhattan Project for AI Safety.  Samuel Hammond, a senior economist at the Foundation for American Innovation, is out with an opinion piece in Politico in which he calls for the US government to fund a large-scale research project on artificial intelligence development to ensure the emerging technology does not become a threat.  His proposal is in response to concerns that AI will develop unchecked and be abused.  Hammond suggests an AI project should focus on coordinating AI developers on best safety practices; and building out government-owned data centers that allow AIs to train on protected data, while also being kept from escaping into the open internet.  Hammond refers to The Manhattan Project’s success in organizing efforts to develop a nuclear weapon as a precedent for a similar AI endeavor.  Politico

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