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Tuesday, January 31, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security and delivers it to your inbox M–F. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas…

Biden Says US Won’t Send F-16 Fighter Jets to Ukraine.  President Joe Biden told reporters that the US will not send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to combat Russia.  White House spokesman John Kirby said the decision not to send F-16s is due to the US providing other adequate, needed capabilities, including Abrams tanks.  Ukraine has said it will push for Western partners to send fourth-generation fighter jets after securing main battle tanks last week.  Biden’s refusal to send F-16s came after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia is stepping up its offensives in eastern Ukraine.   CNN Reuters Politico

DoD Clarifies Autonomous Weapons Systems Policy.  The US Department of Defense updated its autonomous weapons policy last week to resolve confusion over how the US military uses and develops autonomous and semi-autonomous weapons.  The update requires autonomous weapons systems to follow DoD’s AI Ethical Principles policy.  It also requires autonomous weapons systems to undergo regular review by senior officials.  Systems can be exempted from senior review if they have a human operator, are human-supervised for local defense, or use non-lethal force on targets.  Politico

US to Stop Approving All Export Licenses for Huawei.  The US Commerce Department is halting approval of export licenses for US companies to supply most items to Chinese tech giant Huawei.  Officials say current suppliers like Intel and Qualcomm have been told to start ceasing business with Huawei.  Huawei has been on the US “Entity List” since 2019, though the Commerce Department did grant licenses to US firms to ship technology to the company that was not deemed a national security risk.  While these restrictions mainly kept advanced tech from Huawei, sources say the new policy includes denial for shipping of items under the 5G level, including 4G items, Wifi 6 and 7, artificial intelligence, high-performance computing and cloud processing items.  Bloomberg Financial Times Reuters Wall Street Journal

Retired Air Force Officer to Plead Guilty to Storing Classified Documents at Home.  A retired Air Force lieutenant colonel will plead guilty in February to one count of unlawful retention of national defense information for storing hundreds of files with classified information at his home.  The defendant, Robert Birchum, served in the Air Force for over 30 years where he had top secret clearance.  Court documents say that investigators found hard drives and paper documents with classified information at Birchum’s home in 2017.  One recovered thumb drive contained files on the National Security Agency’s collection and target identification methods.  Birchum faces a maximum of 10 years in prison for the mishandling of the classified documents.  CNN

Brazil’s Bolsonaro Applies for Six-Month US Tourist Visa.  Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has applied for a six-month US tourist visa.  His lawyer said the US received his application on Friday and that Bolsonaro will remain in Florida while his application is processed.  Critics are calling for the US to revoke any US visas held by Bolsonaro following violent protests by pro-Bolsonaro demonstrators in Brasilia seeking a military coup to overthrow Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.  The US State Department said it cannot release details on any individual visa case.  The development comes after Brazil’s Supreme Court said it will open an investigation into the role Bolsonaro had in encouraging the Brasilia riots.  Associated Press Financial Times Reuters

South America Cold on Germany’s Scholz’s Push for Ukraine Support.  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz completed a South America tour – which included stops in Argentina, Chile and Brazil – on Monday.  Scholz attempted to use the tour to rally support for Ukraine, but his efforts largely fell flat.  Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said to reporters in a joint press conference with Scholz that both sides in the conflict were in the wrong, explaining that Russia was clearly at fault for invading another country, but adding that neither side has made serious efforts to stop the fighting.  Lula then said that Brazil has not taken sides in the war and will therefore work with others to find a peaceful resolution, adding that China has a vital role to play in the peace process.  Lula also said that Brazil will not arm Ukraine, specifically refusing to  provide ammunition for German-made Gepard anti-aircraft guns, which Berlin reportedly requested.  Argentina and Chile more clearly condemned Moscow for invading Ukraine, but likewise said they will not offer military support to Kyiv.  Experts say South America’s skepticism on backing Western support of Ukraine comes from impacts on food and energy prices from the war and the region’s experience with interventionism and sanctions.  Bloomberg Reuters

Western Europe

France’s Macron Does Not Rule Out Sending Fighter Jets to Ukraine.  French President Emmanuel Macron said Monday that he will consider sending fighter jets to Ukraine as no military aid is “excluded in principle.”  However, Macron said certain “criteria” must be met for these further arms deliveries, including that Ukraine must request the military aid, the aid will “not be escalatory” and will not likely be used to target Russian soil, and will not weaken the French military’s abilities.  Associated Press Financial Times France 24

France, Australia to Jointly Build Shells for Ukraine.  France and Australia announced Monday that they will jointly manufacture thousands of am155-millimeter shells for Ukraine.  Australia will supply the powder while France’s Nexter produces the munitions.  The defense cooperation aims to move past a row over Australia’s 2021 decision to cancel a contract for French submarines in favor of nuclear-powered submarines built with US and British technology.  Politico Reuters

Investigators Say Britain Unlawfully Intercepted People’s Data for Five Years.  A tribunal in Britain ruled on Monday that the Home Office unlawfully issued bulk surveillance warrants to Britain’s domestic intelligence agency MI5 for almost five years.  The Investigatory Powers Tribunal said the Home Office did not properly evaluate the warrants and that MI5 retained intercepted data for too long.  The case, which was raised by human rights groups Liberty and Privacy International, deals with the “bulk” interception for data for national security purposes under the Investigatory Powers Act and related legislation.  While the ruling found “widespread corporate failings” at the Home Office and MI5 over the surveillance activities, the tribunal did not find that the surveillance activity should not have happened at all, nor did it move to terminate unlawfully issued warrants or direct MI5 to delete unlawfully retained data.  Financial Times Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe 

ISW Update on Ukraine War January 30, 2023.  Here is the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine war update for January 30, 2023.  ISW

Zelenskiy Urges Faster Delivery of Weapons Amid Russian Pressure to Wear Down Ukraine Military.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is urging allies to speed up delivery of military support amid a push by Russian forces to make advances in Eastern and Southern Ukraine.  Zelenskiy said in his nightly address to the nation that speed “has been and will be” one of the critical factors in this war.  Zelensky also says Russia is attempting to drag the conflict out and exhaust Ukraine’s military.  Wall Street Journal 

Zelenskiy Meets Danish PM in Southern Ukraine.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy met Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in the southern Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv on Monday.  The two leaders visited a hospital caring for Ukrainian soldiers, as well as Mykolaiv’s damaged port.  The pair then held a press conference in the neighboring city of Odesa, where Zelenskiy warned of a large Russian offensive in “revenge” for Ukraine’s resilience.  Reuters

UK Says New Russian Offensive Unlikely to be Significant.  A British intelligence report on Tuesday said that a new, large Russian assault in southeastern Ukraine has advanced hundreds of meters but is unlikely to result in a significant breakthrough.  The report said the Russian offensive, which includes at least a brigade of several thousand troops, is attacking the town of Vuhledar in an attempt to establish a new foothold in the area and divert Ukrainian forces from the nearby city of Bakhmut.  Reuters UK Ministry of Defense Twitter

Ukraine Warns Defenses Cannot Counter Iranian Ballistic Missiles.  A Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson warned Monday that Ukraine does not have the ability to defend against Iran’s Fateh and Zolfaghar ballistic missiles.  Sources say that Iran promised ballistic missiles for Russia, though Tehran says it has not provided military support to Moscow besides a few drone deliveries before the invasion.  The Air Force spokesman said Russia is already using ballistic missiles such as its Kinzhal-type missiles and S-300 and S-400 rockets.  He added that for Kyiv to counter the ballistic threat it needs stronger Western-made air defense systems.  CNN

China’s Xi Reportedly to Visit Russia.  The Russian foreign ministry said Monday that Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit Russia in the spring as a “main event” on the countries’ bilateral agenda.  Beijing has not confirmed the trip.  The announcement came after the ministry said Russia is seeking a “new level” of Russia-China relations.  Analysts say that the visit will likely reflect deeper bilateral economic ties and geopolitical alignment between Russia and China, but that it remains unlikely that Beijing will change its claim to be neutral in the Ukraine war.  Reuters South China Morning Post

Croatia President Says Ukraine Will Never Regain Crimea, Criticizes Western Tank Transfers.  Croatian President Zoran Milanovic on Monday criticized Western military support of Ukraine as “deeply immoral,” arguing that it will only prolong the conflict with Russia.  He warned that provoking Russia will lead to high costs in Europe and said he does not want Croatia, the EU’s newest member state, to face consequences over the conflict.  Milanovic also questioned the goal of the war, asserting that the Russian-occupied Crimea peninsula will never again be part of Ukraine.  He also warned that Western support for Ukraine will push Russia to deepen ties with China.  Associated Press Reuters

US Warns of Possible Terrorist Attack in Turkey.  The US embassy in Turkey issued a warning on Monday of heightened risk of terrorist attacks in Istanbul.  The security alert said attacks could target churches, synagogues and Westerners in the city in retaliation for Koran-burning incidents in Europe.  The warning was the second such alert in four days.  Reuters

Asia

Explosion in Pakistan Mosque Kills Over 60.  A bombing in a Pakistan mosque has killed more than 60 people and wounded over 150 according to police officials.  The mosque in the northwestern city of Peshawar was reportedly located inside a police compound and attended mainly by police officials.  Police officials say the likely cause was a suicide bomber.  There have been conflicting statements from the Pakistani Taliban, known as Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) with some individuals associated with the group claiming the blast was revenge for the deaths of members of its group.  A spokesman for the TTP later said that the group was not involved.  Pakistani security officials say an investigation is underway.  Reuters CNN Al Jazeera BBC

Austin Visits South Korea.  US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup in Seoul on Tuesday.  The two defense chiefs agreed to expand military cooperation and increase nuclear deterrence planning to counter North Korean nuclear threats.  Austin said his trip aimed to reaffirm the US defense commitment to South Korea.  He later met with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, who stressed the need for stronger collaboration on extended deterrence.  Austin’s trip came after NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenerg visited the South to press for military aid for Ukraine.  Defense Minister Lee said in a joint press conference with Austin that Seoul is monitoring the situation in Ukraine but did not comment on plans to shift from humanitarian and nonlethal assistance.  CNN Deutsche Welle Reuters US Department of Defense Washington Post

US Pushing for New Military Sites in Philippines.  US officials say that Washington hopes to sign a deal with Manila to open up to four new US military sites at Philippine bases.  US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will meet Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr later this week to push for the agreement.  Sources say prospective locations for two sites are the northern island of Luzon and southwest island of Palawan.  Officials say the US will offer military aid, including drones, to the Philippines in exchange for the military sites.  The deal would be part of US efforts to reinforce US allies and forces in the Indo-Pacific to counter China.  Wall Street Journal

NATO, Japan Pledge to Strengthen Military Ties.  NATO Secretary Jens Stoltnberg met Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo on Tuesday.  The two agreed to bolster military ties amid “the most severe and complex security environment” facing the world since WWII.  Stoltenberg specifically said China is watching Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as what happens in Europe over Ukraine could happen to East Asia, echoing past comments by Kishida.  Al Jazeera Euronews Reuters

Myanmar Invited to US- Thai-Led Regional Military Meeting.  The US military says the Myanmar military has been invited to the regional ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM)-Plus experts’ working group on maritime security.  The meeting is being co-chaired by the US and Thailand.  The Pentagon says that ASEAN determines who is invited to the meeting and that if Myanmar attends, the US will continue to join efforts to pressure the Myanmar military junta to restore democracy and end violence against opposition.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Czech President-Elect Speaks With Taiwanese President.  Czech President-elect Petr Pavel spoke with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in a phone call on Monday.  The two leaders’ offices said they stressed their countries’ shared values of freedom and democracy.  Pavel reportedly said he hopes to meet Tsai in the future.  The call was a rare exchange as the Czech Republic does not have official diplomatic ties with Taiwan.  China’s foreign ministry said it opposes countries which have diplomatic ties with Beijing holding official exchanges with Taiwan.  Reuters Deutsche Welle

Japan Chip Companies Lacking Direction on China Controls.  Japanese producers of semiconductor manufacturing equipment and materials told Reuters on Monday that they have not received instruction from the Japanese government about export controls targeting China’s chip industry.  Japan said last week that it would join US measures restricting the export of chip making technology and equipment to China.  Five Japanese chip-related companies told Reuters they had not been contacted by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry on how to proceed in accordance with the measures.  Reuters

Australia Continuing Search for Missing Radioactive Capsule.  Australian authorities continue to search for a missing radioactive capsule that went missing somewhere in Western Australia.  A team from the country’s nuclear safety agency has joined the search for the capsule, which contains Caesium-137 and triggered a radiation alert in the region.  The capsule was lost while en route to a storage facility in Perth.  Reuters

Kiribati Rejoins Pacific Island Regional Group.  Kiribati said Monday that it will rejoin the Pacific Islands Forum.  Kiribati President Taneti Maamu said the decision was made after a productive meeting with Fiji’s new Prime Minister Siteveni Rabuka.  Kiribati’s decision to rejoin the group restores regional unity amid increasing US-China competition over the region.  Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa

Blinken Meets with Palestinian Head Following Visit to Israel.   US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in the West Bank today for talks with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas.  This marks Blinken’s third and final leg of a three-day visit to the region amid a sharp escalation in violence between Israel and Palestine.  Media reports vary widely as to the substance of Blinken’s visit, with some analysts suggesting that the trip resulted in a restating of US support for Israel, communicating US support for a two-state solution and calls for calm and a de-escalation of violence, all of which has been the position of the State Department for some time.  Reports suggest that the meeting with the 87-year old Abbas would be tense, with calls from many Palestinians for a new approach to end the tensions with Israel.   Politico Al Jazeera New York Times 

Iran Summons Ukraine Diplomat Over Drone Strike Comments.  Iran summoned Ukraine’s charge d’affaires in Tehran on Monday to complain about a top Ukrainian official’s recent comments about an apparent Israeli drone strike on a military factory in central Iran.  A senior aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy linked the attack to Iran’s military support for Russia in the Ukraine war, tweeting that Kyiv “did warn” Tehran of consequences.  Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

Germany Considering Earlier Exit from Mali.  German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told a German newspaper that the German military may withdraw its forces from the UN mission in Mali sooner than expected.  Berlin said it would withdraw from Mali by May 2024, but now that Mali isn’t allowing German forces to fly drones, they cannot leave their bases for operations, thus making their continued deployment a waste of time and money.  France 24 Reuters

Cyber and Tech

China Company Claims Delivery of First Practical Use Quantum Computer.  Chinese state media reports that Chinese tech company Origin Quantum delivered its first practical-use quantum computer – named the Wuyuan – to an unnamed user over a year ago.  The report is the first official confirmation that China has developed and used a quantum computer for real-life application.  The delivery makes China the third country – following the US and Canada – capable of delivering a complete quantum computer system.  A co-founder of Origin Quantum said the delivery is a major step forward in application of quantum systems and that the technology will produce visible benefits in daily life within three to five years.  He also said his company is developing a more powerful quantum computer, named Wukong.  South China Morning Post

Chinese Tech Giant Baidu Developing “ChatGPT-Style” Bot.  Chinese tech company Baidu is reportedly developing an Artificial Intelligence (AI) chatbot to compete with ChatGPT, the popular product from Open AI.  Baidu is using the same basic algorithm, developed by US tech firm Alphabet in 2017 to build its version, highlighting the often fluid nature of open source advanced technology research.  Baidu plans to integrate the chatbot into its search function.  Wall Street Journal Reuters  Bloomberg

Microsoft Seeks to Integrate Generative AI Across its Products.  Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella told analysts last week that the “Age of AI is upon us”.  This comes as Microsoft announced that they were investing billions more into Open AI, the company behind the popular ChatGPT tool that was released in November.  Earlier this month Microsoft announced an effort to help promote the use of ChatGPT by allowing users to apply to use it on the Azure cloud network.  Nadella says the technology is the next big transformational change and that Microsoft plans to fuse generative AI into all of its products, including its Bing internet search tool, a move some analysts say could give Microsoft’s search tool an advantage in attempting to compete with Google’s internet search tool which currently owns approximately 90% market share. Nadella says that Microsoft plans to commercialize ChatGPT for now through the use of its Azure cloud platform.  Wall Street Journal  CNET

Chinese Satellite Firm Denies US Accusations of Sanctions Violations.  A Chinese satellite company has denied accusations that it violated US sanctions on Russia by providing satellite imagery to Wagner group, according to a statement by the company.  In the statement the firm, Spacety says it has strictly complied with US and EU sanctions on Russia, and that it has never had any relationship with Wagner Group.  This comes following accusations by the US Treasury Department that Spacety provided synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite imagery of locations in Ukraine that was then used by Wagner Group to conduct combat operations.  South China Morning Post 

Irish Lawmakers to Investigate Israeli-owned Spyware Technology.  Irish lawmakers are set to investigate the issue of spyware being used in Ireland, according to a new report by the Irish Times.  Of particular concern to the investigation is potential links between the Irish government and a company known as Intellexa, reportedly founded by a former Israeli intelligence officer.  Intellexa, which has locations in Ireland, produces a product known as Predator, described in the report as phone hacking technology.  Critics of the company wrote to Irish lawmakers expressing concern that Ireland could become a “haven” for spyware companies.  News of the investigation comes after the Irish government reportedly refused to respond to an inquiry by a committee of the European Parliament seeking information into the potential use of spyware by the Irish government.  Irish Times

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