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Tuesday, February 21, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Biden in Poland to Rally NATO Support for Ukraine.  US President Joe Biden arrived in Warsaw Poland today where he will meet with Polish President Andrzej Duta.  The visit comes a day after Biden’s surprise visit to Kyiv in a move that analysts say was timed to overshadow Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annual speech in Moscow.  Upon his arrival Biden told his Polish counterpart that support for Ukraine remains ‘unwavering’.  Duta says Biden’s visit to the region demonstrates US commitment to regional security and described Biden’s visit to Kyiv as an ‘incredible gesture’.  Reuters Washington Post

How Biden Got to Kyiv.  Media reports are emerging that offer a look into some of the details and planning that went into getting US President Joe Bide from Washington to Kyiv.  Reports say that only two reporters were allowed to travel with Biden, and they agreed to turn over their mobile phones during the trip.  Biden reportedly left Andrews Air Force base in a plane that was not the typical Air Force One, where he flew first to Germany for refueling, before traveling to Poland.  In Poland Biden and the entourage transferred to a train for the 10-hour trip into Ukraine, a country at war and notably one where the US does not have a military presence.  The train,  reportedly mostly full of security personnel, arrived in Kyiv where Biden began a short but historic visit.  He arrived in Kyiv around 8 am where video showed Biden getting out of a white Toyota SUV.  US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan says that Moscow was informed of Biden’s visit to Kyiv, but did not offer details of exactly what was discussed, or how the Russians responded.   Kyiv Post Wall Street Journal NY Times 

U.S., Allies Expected to Announce New Measures to Prevent Russia’s Evasion of Sanctions.  A top US Treasury Department official is expected to give a speech today where he will announce new efforts by the US and allies, including the Group of Seven (G7) nations to restrict Russia’s ability to evade sanctions.  The Wall Street Journal reports that Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo is expected to say that Moscow is engaged in an ‘all out’ effort to evade western sanctions that were implemented following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and that the US and allies are prepared to use additional sanctions and export controls to give companies a clear choice.  That choice, Adeyemo is expected to say, is to do business with a group of economies that represent half of the global GDP, or to provide support to Russia.  Wall Street Journal 

Western Europe

UK Foreign Minister Meets with China’s Qin Gang.  On Monday, the UK’s Foreign Minister James Cleverly shared that he had spoken with his Chinese counterpart Qin Gang about concerns over human rights abuses in the Western region of Xinjiang. Additionally, Cleverly shared that he discussed the need for peace in the Taiwan Strait, and that the two countries needed to work together to resolve issues of climate and trade. Chinese news agency Xinhua reported that Gang told Cleverly that China poses no threat to Britain and that a relationship between the two countries contributes to world peace and development.  South China Morning Post

UK Launches Security Review into Iranian Threats on UK Based Journalists. On Monday, the British government summoned Iran’s senior diplomat to London to protest what it described as ‘serious’ threats to journalists living in the UK.  The move follows a recent announcement that a London-based TV station was relocating to the US after receiving threats. British ministers also announced the launch of a new security review into threats to the UK coming from Iran. Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Putin Vows to Continue War in Major Speech. In a major speech in Moscow just ahead of the one-year mark of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed the west for starting the conflict.  Putin says that Russia will continue the war in a ‘careful and systematic’ way.  Putin added that the west intends to use the Ukraine war to create a global conflict, and that Russia will respond ‘accordingly’.  US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters that Putin chose to start this war and he could choose to end it. Sullivan added that if Russia stopped the war, the fighting would end, but if Ukraine stopped fighting, and the west stopped supporting Ukraine, that Ukraine would cease to exist.  An analyst for Deutsche Welle says that Putin is famous for mixing fact with fiction, while another regional analyst said that this speech by Putin was classic ‘war-time propaganda’.  (Editor’s note- check out the Expert View column today on thecipherbrief.com by Dan Hoffman for additional perspective on Vladimir Putin).  Reuters Deutsche Welle France24 NY Times

Putin Suspends Russian Participation in Key Arms Control Agreement.  Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia will end participation in the last remaining arms control agreement with the US, known as the New START Treaty.  Putin defended the decision by saying that the US has declared its intent to deliver a ‘strategic defeat’ to Russia over the war in Ukraine, and that Russia stood ready to resume nuclear testing if the US did.  Such a move would end a global ban on nuclear testing that has been in place since the Cold War.Associated Press

Wagner's Prigozhin Accuses Top Russian Defense Leadership of 'Treason'.  The founder of Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin took to the press for the second time in recent days where he publicly accused Russia’s most senior defense officials of actions he equated with treason.  Prigozhin released a voice message on his Telegram channel where he, at times reportedly sounding angry and speaking with a raise voice, accused the Russian defense minister and the chief of the general staff of withholding ammunition and air transportation from his fighters, and says their actions equate to treason.  A day earlier Prigozhin complained that senior officials were withholding support from Wagner out of personal animosity towards him.  The latest incidents follow months of criticism by Prigozhin for what he calls incompetence by Russian military leadership.  Reuters 

Leaked Documents Reveal Russia Planning Belarus’ Absorption. Documents leaked from Russia’s presidential administration revealed that the country is planning to absorb neighboring Belarus by 2030 according to a group of international journalists. The document, which is called “Strategic Goals of the Russian Federation in Belarus,” is reported to date back to summer 2021, and lays out Russia’s strategy for infiltrating Belarus politically, economically, and militarily. The long term plan revealed in the leaked documents is to create a common “union state” under Russian leadership.  Deutsche Welle​ The Kyiv Independent

Russian Court Charges Two Defendants Under New Sabotage Law.  Russian state media reports that a Russian court has sentenced two defendants to three and a half years in a ‘strict regime colony’ for allegedly plotting to sabotage a Russian railway near the Ukrainian border.  An unmanned Russian court official reportedly said that their actions would have caused train derailment and casualties among the Russian military. Their convictions are the first reported under Russia’s new Sabotage Article 231, a law passed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and comes amid a string of reported sabotage incidents near the Ukrainian border that targeted Russian railways and other facilities according to the British Ministry of Defense.  Reuters 

Talks Between Turkey and Sweden to Resume.  Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told reporters that Sweden still has work to do, but that talks between Turkey and Sweden will resume.  His comments came during a meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinkn in Istanbul where Blinken says that the US strongly supports the quick accession of Sweden and Finland into NATO.  Negotiations between Turkey, Sweden and Finland were postponed by Ankara following the burning of a Koran by a Danish Far Right leader in front of Turkey’s embassy in Stockholm.  Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson told reporters in Stockholm that we welcomed the news that talks would resume.  Reuters

Southern Turkey Hit by 6.3 Magnitude Earthquake.  Multiple media reports say that a 6.3 magnitude earthquake hit southern Turkey, near the Syrian border on Monday.  The latest incident comes just two weeks after the region suffered the worst earthquake in modern history leaving tens of thousands dead and many more wounded.  The latest quake caused panic among residents where buildings were reportedly damaged and sent rescuers scrambling to respond.  The European Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) says the quake struck at a depth of 2 km near the town of Antaka.  Reuters Al Jazeera  Deutsche Welle

Asia

US Calls UN Security Council ‘Shameful’ Over Refusal to Act on North Korea.  US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield called the UN Security Council's lack of action on North Korea ‘shameful’ and ‘dangerous’.  She said that those who shield North Korea from the consequences of its recent missile tests endanger the entire Pacific region and put the world at risk of a wider conflict.  On Monday the US proposed that the Security Council condemn Pyongang’s latest missile tests.  Russia and China oppose any new diplomatic measures against North Korea and say such moves would be ‘unconstructive’.  The last time the UN Security Council took action on North Korea was in 2017.  Reuters 

China Warns Countries to Stop ‘Fueling the Fire’ in Ukraine. China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang says that Beijing is worried about the Ukraine war spiraling out of control, and warned unspecified countries to stop ‘fueling the fire’ in what analyst say is an apparent dig on the US.  Gang added that the countries should stop hyping ‘today Ukraine, tomorrow Taiwan’ rhetoric.  Gangs comments come ahead of an expected visit by China’s top diplomat Wang Yi to Moscow.  Beijing has so far refrained from condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine and last year struck a ‘no limits’ partnership with Moscow.  Reuters South China Morning Post 

China Unveils Global Security Initiative. China unveiled its new “Global Security Initiative” on Tuesday which lays out core concepts and principles regarding global peace and security according to reports from Chinese state media. The plan is based on a proposal made last April by China’s Xi Jinping. In addition to the revealed plan, China’s foreign minister Qin Gang also said that the country was concerned about the conflict in Ukraine, and would work with the international community in efforts to resolve the conflict. Deutsche Welle

Middle East and Northern Africa

UN Security Council Denounces Israel in Statement. The UN Security Council released a formal statement condemning Israel’s plans to expand settlements into Palestinian territory. The statement was approved by all 15 members of the Security Council, including the United States. This marks the first time the US has allowed the council to move against Israel in six years. US support came after the UAE said it would not put a stronger resolution to a vote, a move the US might have vetoed.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Russian Firms Showcase Military Hardware at UAE Defense Expo. Russian firms participated in the Naval Defence & Maritime Security Exhibition in the United Arab Emirates despite pressure on the Gulf states to isolate Moscow. The firms displayed assault rifles, missiles, and drones at the expo.  Reuters

Syria’s Assad Visits Oman. Syria’s Bashar al-Assad visited Oman on Monday as his first trip out of Syria since the deadly earthquake that has killed nearly 6,000 people. Assad met with Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq and discussed improving ties with all Arab countries, including Oman, after almost 12 years of civil war.  Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

Attack Burkina Faso Kills 51 Soldiers.  At least 51 soldiers were killed in an ambush on Monday according to Burkina Faso’s army.  The death toll was initially reported as 8 but later revised when 43 more bodies were located.  The latest attack occurred in a region that borders Mali, and comes just two days before France officially marks the end of its counter-terrorism mission in the country.  Officials have not directly blamed any group for the attack, but say that 160 ‘terrorists’ were killed in a retaliatory air strike.  Reuters Al Jazeera 

Cyber & Tech

 China Uses Courts to Strengthen its Domestic Tech Sector.  The Wall Street Journal is out with a report that examines China’s use of its courts in what it says is an attempt to undermine western intellectual property rights. The report cites three recent examples where Chinese courts invalidated decades old patents held by western companies and in one case ruled that a Japanese firm violated antitrust laws by refusing to issue a product license to a Chinese firm.  This is the latest effort by Beijing to bolster its domestic technology industry in the growing and increasingly competitive race against the US and its allies for global technological dominance.  Wall Street Journal 

 Two Chinese Academics Offer Plan for Chinese Dominance of Future Chip Industry.  Two members of China’s Academy of Sciences have released a plan they say China should use to ensure it wins the race for dominance of future technology.  The two academics say that Beijing should amass a new portfolio of patents that govern everything related to the next generation of chipmaking including new materials and techniques.  Analysts say the report offers a glimpse into how some influential Chinese leaders are thinking about the intense battle for technical supremacy between the West, led by the US and China.  Bloomberg

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