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Thursday, May 11, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

US Approves Use of Confiscated Assets of Russian Oligarch for Use in Ukraine War.  US Attorney General Merrick Garland said Wednesday that he has approved the transfer of Russian assets seized from Oligarch Konstantin Malofeyev to be used to aid Ukraine.  US authorities seized “millions of dollars” from Malofeyev last year for sanctions violations regarding the promotion of separatism in Crimea.  Garland added in his announcement that the transfer marks the first time forfeited Russian assets have been used to aid Ukraine and that it will not be the last.  Financial Times Reuters

Border Crossings Hit 10,000 Ahead of Title 42 Expiration.  Illegal US border crossings along the US-Mexico border reached more than 10,000 on Monday and Tuesday ahead of the expiration of the Covid-19-related Title 42 restrictions. The restriction has allowed for border patrol agents to turn away migrants who have passed through other countries as part of Covid-19 prevention, but The White House is set to allow the rule to expire as Covid-19 is no longer declared a health crisis.  Reuters 

US Carries Out Raids at Two Properties of Chinese Solar Panel Company.  The Florida factory and California sales office of the Shanghai-based company Jinko Solar, one of the largest solar panel manufacturers in the world, was raided this week by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security as part of a federal investigation, according to the organization. Shares in the company slid 8% after the raid in Jacksonville, but a spokesperson says the company is “engaging constructively” with the US government to better understand the nature of the investigation, which DHS has not provided specifics on.  Solar panels from Jinko Solar have been confiscated in the last year due under the Uyghur Forced Labor Protection Act.  Reuters

U.S. House Reviews Resolution Demanding Release of Evan Gershkovich  The U.S. House of Representatives is reviewing a resolution introduced on Tuesday urging Russia to release detained Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who was arrested for alleged espionage on March 31st, and other wrongfully imprisoned Americans. House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul, who is leading the attempt, condemned Russia’s ungrounded detainment of U.S. citizens. A vote in favor of the resolution would show the support of Congress and also fortify the Biden administration's endeavors to bring Gershkovich and former-Marine Paul Whelan home.  Wall Street Journal

Yellen to Reaffirm U.S. Support of Ukraine at G7 Talks. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is expected to double down on US support for Ukraine at the upcoming G7 talks this week. Reaffirming US support for Ukraine is one of Yellen’s three main priorities that she plans to discuss at the meeting in Japan on Thursday. She also intends to discuss reducing inflation and bolstering long-term economic resilience.  Reuters 

Western Europe

UK Confirms Sending Long-Range Missiles to Ukraine.  British Defense Minister Ben Wallace confirmed on Thursday that the UK is donating Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine.  Speaking to Parliament, Wallace said the long-range missiles will help support the anticipated Ukrainian offensive, adding that the UK decided in part to send the missiles due to Russia’s “dark path” of targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.  According to several media reports, Storm Shadow missiles have already been delivered to Ukraine.  The missiles are typically air launched and have a range of 250 kilometers according to the manufacturer, which will allow Ukraine to strike targets deep inside of Russian-held territory in Crimea.  Sources added that the UK has received assurance from the Ukrainian government that Storm Shadow will only be used within Ukrainian sovereign territory and not against targets inside Russia.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia is “extremely negative” about the transfer of Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine and that an “adequate response will be required.”  Al Jazeera BBC CNN Sky News

Top NATO Military Official Says Ukraine War a Fight Between Quantity, Quality.  Admiral Rob Bauer, the chair of NATO’s military committee, said Wednesday that the Ukraine war will increasingly turn into a battle between a high quantity of poorly trained and insufficiently equipped Russian troops and a smaller Ukrainian force that is better trained and armed with higher quality Western equipment.  Bauer underscored this shift by highlighting that Russia is deploying Soviet-era T-54 tanks to Ukraine, noting that while the tank is older, it could still be an issue as Russia has “a lot” of them.  Bauer added that no matter the nature of the conflict with Russia, NATO will maintain its “unrelenting support” for Ukraine for “as long as it takes.” Reuters

No Decision has been Made on Renewing China Deal, Says Italian PM Meloni   Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni claimed on Wednesday that the country is still considering options and has not yet made a decision on whether or not to renew the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) deal with China, an agreement made in 2019 that the U.S., and Meloni herself, were opposed to. She spoke to journalists in Prague and reported that the “debate is open,” as Parliament still has time to decide before the pact expires at the end of the year. Reuters

Analysis: Western Nuclear Industries Dependent on Russian Nuclear Fuel.  Efforts to open new nuclear reactors in the US and Europe are being stymied by the fact that the West does not have enough nuclear fuel and does not have the capacity to significantly increase production.  The issue is further complicated as the main source of critical ingredients for nuclear fuel come from Russia’s state nuclear company Rosatom.  Past openness by the West to buy Russian nuclear fuel as part of nuclear arms control efforts has allowed Russia to dominate production of enriched uranium, underscored by the fact that nuclear fuel is one of the few remaining Russian energy sources not banned by Western sanctions over the Ukraine war.  Western countries are now struggling to bolster their nuclear industries to catch up and end reliance on Russian fuel.  Wall Street Journal

Central and Eastern Europe

Zelenskyy Says Ukraine “Needs More Time” Before Launching Counteroffensive.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Thursday that the Ukrainian military needs “a bit more time” to prepare its anticipated counteroffensive to push back Russian forces occupying Ukrainian territory.  He said that while the offensive could be launched now and be successful, doing so would result in major losses, which would be “unacceptable.”  Zelenskyy added that in the meantime, Ukraine is waiting to receive some military aid for the offensive, including new “batches” of armored vehicles.  Experts note that it still remains unclear when the offensive will finally get underway due to factors like the weather and the state of munitions supplies for both sides.  Al Jazeera Associated Press BBC

Wagner Head Says Ukraine Counteroffensive Underway in Bakhmut, Ukraine Denies.  The head of Russia’s Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, says that Ukraine’s anticipated counteroffensive has already begun with “partially successful” moves against the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.  Prigozhin rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s comments that Ukraine needs more time to prepare for the offensive, calling him “deceptive” given Ukrainian advances in Bakhmut.  Prigozhin’s remarks came after he said earlier in the week that Russian troops have abandoned some positions in southwest Bakhmut, which the Ukrainian military later appeared to confirm by saying it had routed a Russian brigade.  Russia’s defense ministry has not commented on these developments in Bakhmut, though Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov admitted overnight that the war is “very difficult.”  Reuters

Poland Summons Russian Ambassador Over Black Sea Jet Incident.  Poland summoned the Russian ambassador to Warsaw on Wednesday to protest a Russian SU-35 fighter jet’s near collision with a Polish EU border patrol aircraft over the Black Sea last week.  Poland’s foreign ministry said it summoned the Russian envoy to condemn the incident and express concern over Russia’s “provocative and aggressive behavior.”  The Russian embassy in Warsaw did not comment on the matter.  Reuters

Poland to Change Kaliningrad’s Name, Russia Claims Hostility   The Kremlin on Wednesday accused Warsaw of a “hostile act” over Poland’s decision to rename the Russian city of Kaliningrad to Krolewiec in official Polish documents. The Polish Committee of Geographical Standardization claims the current title of Kaliningrad, named after Mikahail Kalinin by the Soviet Union following the annexation of Poland, reflects a 1940 massacre of Polish citizens by Soviet forces and carries negative connotations.  Reuters

Czech Republic Signals Willingness to Send Fighter Jets to Ukraine.  Czech President Petr Pavel said Wednesday that the Czech Republic could potentially send some of its L-159 fighter jets to Ukraine.  In a radio interview, Pavel suggested that the Czech-made, light subsonic warplanes could “significantly” help the expected Ukrainian offensive against occupying Russian forces.  Any such transfer of the L-159s is subject to the Czech government’s approval.  Reuters

US, Canada Conclude Latvia Hunt Forward Cyber Operation.  US Cyber Command announced Wednesday that it has finished a second “hunt forward” mission in Latvia aimed at strengthening the Baltic state’s cyber defenses.  The mission lasted from February to April and worked with Canadian cyber forces, who were conducting their own mission in Latvia simultaneously.  Both missions worked within the Latvian government’s networks to identify potential vulnerabilities and learn tactics used by hackers.  Officials say the demand for this kind of digital assistance to allies will only increase as the Ukraine war continues and cyber threats from adversaries expand  The Record

Canada, Latvia to Train Ukrainian Troops.  Canada’s Defense Minister Anita Anand announced Wednesday that Canadian and Latvian militaries will begin training Ukrainian forces in Latvia on Monday.  Anand said the training will focus on intelligence, reconnaissance, and battle planning.  The Latvian training program will add to Canada’s efforts to jointly train Ukrainian troops with the UK and Poland.  Canada currently has around 800 troops deployed in Latvia, making it Canada’s largest foreign military deployment.  Reuters

Asia and Oceania

Chinese Ships Spotted at Russian Oil Rig Off the Coast of Vietnam. A Chinese research ship along with about a dozen other boats were spotted entering a Russian and Vietnamese state firm-operated gas block on Wednesday according to two monitoring groups. The ships were also escorted by the coast guard as they entered the gas block of Vietsovpetro.  The vessels were also spotted near a Japanese owned and operated rig in the block. China has been accused in the past of using its coast guard and other boats to intimidate and disrupt energy activities in the South China Sea.  Beijing has denied this and says its activities in the region are entirely legal. Reuters

Analysis: China Maintaining Overseas Operations Targeting Dissidents.  Reuters is out with a report that says Beijing appears undeterred in efforts to pressure dissidents and their supporters abroad, despite backlash from Western governments.  The US, Canada and the UK have recently accused China of intimidating dissidents abroad with threats of harm, online harassment and clandestine operations.  While these countries have responded with expulsions of Chinese diplomats and arrests of individuals linked to the operations, China has rejected any wrongdoing.  Experts say that Beijing is growing more aggressive on overseas influence operations, likely due to the perceived threat to its domestic stability and a belief that Western countries will not further escalate the issue to protect economic ties.  Reuters

Biden to Sign Defense Pact with Papua New Guinea as He Makes First Visit to the Country. US President Joe Biden is making his first visit to Papua New Guinea, the first of any sitting US President, at the end of this month where he is expected to sign a defense surveillance agreement with the country according to the island nation’s foreign minister. The US is also expected to increase development assistance to the country to $32 million, which will go towards tackling climate change concerns, amongst other things. Biden will visit the island nation on May 22.  Reuters

Japan’s Kishida Says Taiwan Peace Critical for the World.  Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Wednesday reiterated that it is critical to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, saying it is not just important for Japan but also for “the whole international community.”  In an interview with Nikkei Asia, Kishida said the Group of Seven (G7) is united on resolving the Taiwan issue peacefully and will use next week’s G7 summit to pressure China not to exacerbate tensions over Taiwan.  His remarks appeared to address signals by France and Germany that they are reluctant to jeopardize economic ties with China by pushing it on Taiwan.  Beyond Taiwan, Kishida touched on other security challenges, including an increasingly aggressive North Korea and regional maritime disputes, which he referred to as “attempts to change the status quo by force in the South China Sea and the East China Sea.”  Kishida also mentioned his hopes for the G7 to lead development and regulation of emerging technologies, especially artificial intelligence.  Nikkei Asia

Japan Foreign Minister Confirms Talks on NATO Liaison Office.  Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi on Wednesday formally confirmed that NATO is seeking to open a liaison office in Japan to better coordinate with Indo-Pacific partners.  Speaking in a CNN interview, Hayashi said negotiations on the office are ongoing and that no final decisions have been made yet.  He added that the instability caused by the Ukraine war motivated talks on the creation of the office, saying that the conflict showed Japan, which is not a NATO member, how such security issues cannot be “confined” to certain parts of the world.  Hayashi also said that the office is not aimed at specific countries and is meant to help Japan navigate a “severe and complex” regional security environment, which he said not only includes tensions with Russia but also aggression from North Korea and a rising China.  CNN

Pakistan Supreme Court Orders Release of Former PM Khan.  Pakistan’s Supreme Court has ruled that the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan was illegal and ordered his release.  Khan was arrested on corruption charges on Tuesday.  The move sparked violent protests across Pakistan which included attacks by his supporters against police and military facilities.  The violence prompted the Pakistan government to deploy military units to restore order.  Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif called the violence “unforgivable,” and Pakistan’s military said it will take “strict action” against those who have attacked military sites and are pushing the country towards “civil war.”  Associated Press Reuters Wall Street Journal

China Calls on Taliban to Reform Policies Concerning Women  China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin released a statement from the Chinese government calling for Afghanistan’s Taliban to reform recently passed policies excluding women from education, government, and public life. These comments come just days after China hosted a mini-summit with Afghanistan and Pakistan to discuss trade and reduce border tensions. Wang added that China hoped the current interim government will be able to make steps in the right direction in terms of reform.  Associated Press 

Middle East and Northern Africa

Top Palestinian Islamic Jihad Militants, Several Civilians Killed by Israeli Strikes in Gaza. Ali Hassan Ghali, the head of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) rocket launching unit was reportedly killed in the latest round of Israeli air strikes on the Gaza Strip.  The Israeli military confirmed that it had specifically targeted Ghali as well as two other senior members of the PIJ in Gaza. The Israeli military described Ghali as being one of the main people responsible for recent rocket attacks against Israel.  Violence between Palestinian militants and Israel has escalated in recent days; the PIJ has launched hundreds of rockets into Israel while Israel has launched airstrikes in the Gaza Strip which have at least killed 23 Palestinians, including 10 civilians.  Egyptian state media says Egypt brokered a ceasefire between the two sides, but the truce appears to have failed given the continued fighting.  Al Jazeera Associated Press BBC Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

Violent Protests in Senegal Kill One, Injure 30.  Violence erupted during a protest in the capital of Senegal, Dakar, that killed one teenager and injured 30 others on Tuesday night. Schoolchildren and other young people in the country have taken to the streets to protest what they deem an increasingly oppressive government. Schoolchildren were protesting the construction of a police station over a high school when violence erupted after police confronted them in full gear.  Al Jazeera 

Cyber and Tech

New DoD S&T Strategy Stresses Rapid Tech Deployment to Military Units. The Pentagon this week released its National Defense Science and Technology Strategy (NDSTS), a framework designed to accelerate the cycle of investing in and fielding emerging technology among the military services.  The strategy acknowledges as key motivations the speed and complexity with which threat environments are developing, and the opportunities to leverage key commercial technology achievements to enhance DoD capabilities.  Nina Kollars, an advisor to the undersecretary of defense for research and engineering, said the strategy reflects the Pentagon’s determination to “step away” from conventional thinking.  The strategy concentrates on three key goals:  accelerating joint warfighting capabilities, deploying new capabilities “at speed and scale,” and ensuring a solid basis for R&D through workforce development and upgrades to physical and digital infrastructure.  The strategy also emphasizes China’s technological prowess and the need for the U.S. military to maintain its advantages as it strives to innovate and modernize.  BreakingDefense C4ISRNet DefenseScoop

DoD Creates New Career Pathways for Digital, AI Specialists. Newly empowered by Congress to employ flexible hiring practices, the Pentagon is creating novel pathways for employees to engage in emerging digital technology careers.  The DoD’s Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office (CDAO) has added 10 new digital and AI roles to the Pentagon’s cyber workforce while another component is developing a pathway for software experts.  The deputy digital and AI officer, Margie Palmieri, said the new roles “also give us the ability to direct-hire…and it gives us the ability to provide higher pay” than the standard GS payscale.  The CDAO is the Pentagon’s “community manager” for the new positions and is responsible for defining job descriptions and determining how to re-skill existing staff for the new roles. The digital-AI office is expected to release its data and AI implementation strategy “by the end of the summer.”  DefenseScoop

Ukraine War Accelerates Reliance on Innovative Technology Companies. The Financial Times is out with a report that underscores how the Ukraine conflict has revolutionized the defense technology industry, especially in sensors, robotics, and unmanned systems.  Trevor Taylor, a researcher at the Royal United Service Institute, maintains that Ukraine has forced governments to “think harder and deeper about their industrial bases, their supply chains’ agility and resilience.”  The experience gained in the past year of the conflict, Taylor noted, indicates that effectiveness on the battlefield “is depending increasingly on information advantage derived from sensors, data processing, computing and so on.”  A notable impact on the defense industry is that small, agile technology firms often are outpacing the “often lengthy development cycles of prime contractors.”  Consequently, governments and defense organizations frequently are looking beyond traditional suppliers to obtain critical “leap-ahead technologies to achieve transformational results.”  Financial Times

Rockwell Under U.S. Investigation for Cyber Vulnerabilities in China Facility. Rockwell Automation, a leading manufacturer of robotics control and factory automation equipment, is under Federal investigation stemming from the possibility that one of its China-based facilities could expose critical U.S. infrastructure, including military assets, to cyberattacks from China.  The inquiry is focusing on Rockwell’s facility in Dalian where employees may have access to software codes that connect with software and cybersecurity services used in computers linked to the U.S. power grid and in computer systems of the U.S. Navy, Coast Guard, and other Federal agencies.  Rockwell said it was unaware of any Federal investigation, adding "there has been no report or other indication that these practices and protocols have been breached or that any of our products have been intentionally compromised."  A memorandum reviewed by the Wall Street Journal documents the allegations of a whistleblower who said that Rockwell conducts code development, support and patching at the Dalian facility using only Chinese national staff.  The whistleblower’s observations have raised concerns among related companies and government components about threats to security. Reuters Wall Street Journal   

Meta Announces AI Model R&D Project Combining Multisensory Data Streams. Meta has announced a research project to develop an open source AI model capable of combining six types of data that could simulate human perception.  The multisensory model links data streams from text, audio, images, temperature, and movement readings.  At its current R&D stage, no immediate commercial application is expected, but the linkage of data sources anticipates a generative AI system that could “create immersive, multisensory experiences.”  The Meta model, dubbed ImageBind, is the first system to combine six types of data into a single embedding space.  Meta noted in a blog post that additional sensory data streams could be added to later models, including “touch, speech, smell, and brain fMRI signals.”  Engadget TheVerge   

New Ransomware Resource Provides Consistent, Long-Term Data on Threat Groups. The Halcyon cybersecurity firm has introduced a new resource to track and rank ransomware gangs and attacks for the benefit of organizations protecting computer systems and networks.  The Ransomware Malicious Quadrant assembles data on leading ransomware gangs and categorizes them.  The need for such a resource stems not from the lack of information, but the absence of “consistent information,” according to Anthony Freed, Halcyon’s director of threat intelligence.  The Quadrant moves from occasional and haphazard collection of information on ransomware threat actors to create a repository that reveals the history of group attacks, the industries targeted, and the areas they are most active.  Drawing from Halcyon’s research and information from other companies and government sources, each ransomware group covered in the quadrant is plotted along two X-Y axes monitoring “ability to execute” and “completeness of vision.”  Additional characterizations describe the groups as “challengers, leaders, niche players, or visionaries.”  A range of other factors are monitored and documented, including groups’ “effectiveness in disrupting targeted networks and ability to evade detection.”  CyberScoop

Global Food Distributor Network Breach Results in Loss of Customer, Employee Data. Food distribution giant Sysco warns of data breach after cyberattack – Sensitive information was extracted from the network of Sysco, a global food distributor company, in a breach earlier this year.  The stolen data included business, customer, and employee information.  Sysco reports that an investigation into the intrusion is continuing.  Indications are that employee payroll information, including names, social security numbers, and account numbers, was among the data removed from the network.  The company has hired cybersecurity experts to help in the investigation.  Sysco confirmed that the breach has not impacted business or customer service operations and has informed employees that steps have been taken to prevent a similar intrusion in the future.  BleepingComputer

U.S. Includes Commercial Satellite Imagery in New Ukraine Security Package. A new $1.2 billion security assistance package for Ukraine includes commercial satellite imagery services among the capabilities to be delivered by the U.S.  In addition, an array of air-defense systems is included in the package, which will be funded by the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI).  Among other items, the new round of funding will provide for additional air defense systems and munitions, and ammunition for counter-drone systems.  DefenseScoop explains that because USAI funding will be used rather than drawdowns from existing DoD stocks, the listed materiel may not be delivered to Ukraine for many months.  DefenseScoop

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