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Monday, May 1, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

Americas

FBI Has “Zero Leads” on Suspect in Texas Shooting.  More than 250 law enforcement officers are reportedly involved in a manhunt for a suspect accused of killing five people in Cleveland, TX.  The incident reportedly happened after neighbors reportedly asked the man to stop shooting on his nearby property, which resulted in the man allegedly entering his neighbors home and killing five people before fleeing the scene.  FBI officials told reporters in a press conference that they do not know where the suspect is, and currently have “zero” leads.  Washington Post 

Armenia and Azerbaijan to Meet in Washington for Peace Talks.  The Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan held talks with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Washington on Monday.  The talks came just hours after the latest gun battle along the two countries' troubled border, and less than a week after a peace summit between the two sides in Moscow.  Blinken says the US is committed to the peace process between the two countries and praised the ‘courageous’ steps taken by both sides to put past issues aside.  Clashes broke out in 2020 resulting in 6500 deaths and attempts to broker a permanent peace since then have failed.  Reuters

US Struggling to Replenish Weapons Stockpiles Amidst War in Ukraine.  The Wall Street Journal is out with a new report that examines the state of the US defense industry and continued shortfalls of supplies of ammunition.  US arms makers have streamlined supply chains, increased staff and added shifts in order to meet demands by Ukraine’s military.  Years of inconsistent budgeting by DOD and supply chains for raw materials shifting overseas have contributed to a certain fragility in the system, a reality that Lockheed Martin Co’s CEO says needs to be eliminated.  DOD officials have reportedly predicted that it could take five or six years to successfully reverse the trend and create a system that can rapidly scale to meet unexpected demand.   Wall Street Journal

Western Europe

EU Leaders Working on ‘De-risking’ China Strategy.  EU leaders met in Brussels this week to work out a new strategy for dealing with China.  The core of the discussions centered around EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen’s idea of ‘de-risking’ rather than decoupling.  Von der Leyen reportedly discussed the idea with Chinese President Xi Jinping on her recent visit.  The broad themes of the strategy would see the EU wean itself from Chinese supplies of critical commodities and restrict EU investments in some hi-tech sectors in China.  South China Morning Post

Central & Eastern Europe

Russia Launches Second Round of Missile Strikes Across Ukraine.  Russian airstrikes hit the eastern Ukrainian city of Pavlohrad, a key rail hub, late Sunday night.  The attack, the second round of nationwide missile strikes, damaged dozens of homes and wounded at least 34 people, and also reportedly damaged ammunition depots and a fuel plant. Analysts say these attacks appear to be aimed at hampering an anticipated Ukrainian offensive.  In the first round of missile strikes, Ukrainian officials say air defenses were successful in destroying 15 of 18 missiles that targeted the Kyiv region.  Reuters The Guardian

Massive Fires in Crimea Triggered by Suspected Drone Strike. Russia is accusing Ukraine of being responsible for a massive fire in Russian-occupied Crimea at a Russian fuel storage facility. Russia is claiming that a Ukrainian drone had hit the warehouse. According to the local governor, the fire was put out before any serious damage occurred.  CNN Reuters

Ukraine Claims Control of Bakhmut Supply Route. On Saturday, a Ukrainian military spokesperson said that Ukraine holds control of a critical supply route to Bakhmut, one of the most contested regions in the conflict. Meanwhile the leader of the Wagner Group, Russia’s mercenary force, threatened to withdraw troops if Moscow did not give them more ammunition. Russians have been trying to take the city for 10 months, and intended to seize the “road of life” so Ukrainian logistics and supplies would be cut off. Yesterday alone Ukrainian forces reported fending off 58 Russian attacks along different parts of the frontline in Bakhmut. Meanwhile, the Wagner group’s founder claimed his men advanced 100-150m leaving almost none of the city in Ukrainian hands, but losing 94 troops. Reuters

Zelenskiy: "I Would Have Fought to the Death" if Russia Attacked HQ.   Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says that if Russian invaders would have made it to his headquarters, that he was prepared to ‘fight to the death’ with his inner circle.  In the early days of the war, Russian intelligence and other military units attempted but failed to reach Bankova Street, home to Ukraine’s Presidential office.  Reuters

Vatican Involved in Secret Ukraine Peace Mission Says Pope.  The Vatican is involved in negotiations to end the Ukraine war according to the Pope who spoke to reporters on his way back from a visit to Hungary.  In Hungary, the Pope met with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The Pope added that peace can only be achieved by opening channels of dialogue and that all parties involved in the discussions in Hungary are interested in finding a solution for peace in Ukraine.  Reuters

Seven Syrians Facing Terrorism Charges in Malta. Yesterday, a Maltese court arrested and charged 7 Syrian men between 21 and 27 with encouraging and training others to commit terrorism. The charges state the men are associated with an extremist organization, working to recruit others for terrorism, instructing others to use explosives and firearms, and attempting to travel to Europe to commit terrorism. All 7 men plead not guilty, and did not request bail. If convicted they face life in prison. Reuters

Wagner Group May Soon Cease to Exist, Says Founder. Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of Russian private military company, the Wagner Group made dismal remarks about Russia’s success in a video released to a blogger on Friday. Although it is not immediately clear how serious Prigozhin, who is known to sometimes speak in a sarcastic manner, was.  He has repeatedly complained about the lack of ammunition  and shells at the front lines. He told a Russian war blogger, that without more shells, “Wagner, in a short period of time, will cease to exist. We will become history, nothing to worry about, things like this happen.” Prigozhin also said that Wager is facing heavy casualties, and expressed concerns about a counter attack from the well-equipped Ukrainians. Reuters

Analysis: A Look at Ukraine’s Front Line Preparations for the Upcoming Offensive.  The NY Times is out with a lengthy report on the Ukrainian military’s preparations for the upcoming military offensive against Russia.  Citing numerous military sources currently deployed in front line areas, the report describes how some front line units have been preparing, for over a year, all while slowly turning the tide of the conflict by preventing Russian advances in most areas.  The report also examines a few possible scenarios for the upcoming offensive, including what many say is a likely focus by Ukraine on the Zaporizhzhia region of Southern Ukraine. NY Times

Putin Signs New Decree Giving Life Sentences for Treason. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree that would increase the prison sentence for treason to life in prison. Previously the punishment was 20 years. Lawmakers had already previously voted to approve the resolution. Legislators also voted to raise the punishment for carrying out a “terrorist act” from 15 years to 20 years. Reuters

Putin Vows Harsh Response Following Seizure of Embassy School in Warsaw. On Saturday, Russia’s foreign ministry vowed a harsh response following what they deemed an illegal seizure of its embassy school in Warsaw, Poland and a violation of the Vienna Convention by Polish officials. According to Polish media, police showed up to the school on Saturday morning. Poland’s foreign ministry has also argued that the school belongs to Poland. According to Russia’s foreign ministry, Polish officials had gone to the embassy school grounds with the goal of seizing it. Reuters

Russia hunts for spies and traitors — at home. Moscow has imposed new military censorship laws causing hundreds of Russians to be fined or imprisoned since the invasion of Ukraine. Russians are being charged and convicted for treason based on public statements with publicly available information. The Kremlin also recently convicted Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich for spying for the U.S. in a move that harkens back to the Cold War. These cases show Russia is broadening its hunt for internal spies. Some Russians, too afraid to publicly protest against the invasion of Ukraine, donated to aid organizations. Russia’s General Prosecutor’s Office responded with a warning, that it would check “every case of financial or other help” for signs of treason.  Politico

Asia

Exclusive: Never-before-seen Chinese military blimp caught on satellite images of remote desert base. In a northwestern Chinese desert, satellite imagery obtained by CNN shows a large blimp developed by the Chinese military likely taken three months ago before the US shot down a Chinese spy balloon. Areospace experts say this shows an expansion of Chinese capabilities, and many U.S. agencies and offices declined to comment.  CNN

North Korea Says US-South Korea Summit Deal is Escalating Tensions. Today North Korea state media pointed to the recent agreement between the U.S. and South Korea, which will see the return of US nuclear submarines to the Korean peninsula, as an action that brings regional tensions to the “bring of a nuclear war.” State media, KNCA said last week’s summit proved the U.S. and South Korea’s willingness to take the worst action and that “it is the hegemonic sinister aim pursued by the U.S. to turn the whole of South Korea into its biggest nuclear war outpost in the Far East and effectively use it for attaining its strategy for dominating the world.” North Korea also stated the Yoon-Biden summit cemented its conviction to perfect a “nuclear war deterrent.” Reuters

Sister of North Korean Leader Attacks US and South Korea Deal. Kim Yo Jung, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, slammed the recently brokered deal between the United States and South Korea, claiming that it will do more harm than good. Speaking to the state-run media KCNA, she also criticized President Joe Biden’s comments on a nuclear attack, and called South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol a “fool.” These are the first comments that North Korea has made on the deal. CNN

Analysis:  South Korea’s President Faces Polarized Welcome Home After US Trip.  Choe Sang-Hun, the Seoul bureau chief for The New York Times has written a lengthy analysis of the domestic situation facing South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol following Yoon’s recent visit to the US.  Yoon met with US President Joe Biden, where the two announced the “Washington Declaration” at the conclusion of the meeting.  The agreement will see an increased US military presence, specifically with nuclear submarines in South Korea for the first time in 40 years.  But some critics of Yoon, Choe writes, say that the agreement seems mostly aimed at addressing US concerns over the potential for South Korea to develop its own nuclear arsenal, rather than providing for the legitimate defense of South Korea in the face of an attack by the North.  Some recent polling suggests a falling confidence in the belief that the US would actually commit to defending South Korea, in light of the capability that Pyongyang can now target the US mainland.  Yoon’s supporters say his administration scored a win by getting the US to recognize publicly the South Korean nuclear threat and agree to giving the South Koreans more of a role in response scenario planning. NY Times 

US Claims Chinese Coast Guard Has Been Harassing Philippine Ships, Demands Beijing Stop ‘Provocative and Unsafe’ Actions. On Saturday, after another naval confrontation between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea, the U.S. urged China to stop harassing Filipino vessels. The Philippines accused China’s coast guard of “aggressive tactics” during a Philippine coast guard patrol, and China responded on Sunday saying it was willing to handle these maritime differences through friendly consultations with countries of concern. They warned against U.S. intervention. China claimed that the Philippine vessel intruded on sovereign waters, but their claims to sovereignty in the South China Sea were dismissed internationally as an arbitrary line with no legal basis. Reuters South China Morning Post

China and Singapore to Send Minesweepers on Joint Maritime Mission.  The Chinese and Singapore Navies conducted joint maritime drills over the weekend.  The exercises included joint minesweeping operations, which some analysts say reflect a growing concern on the part of Beijing about security in the Malacca strait.  The exercises are the first between the two countries since 2021 but are viewed as normal cooperation between the two nations.  The Malacca strait is a strategically important waterway for many nations, including China which analysts say imports 70% of its energy imports through the strait.  The exercises come immediately after the US and the Philippines concluded their largest joint maritime exercises in decades. South China Morning Post

US Anticipating Business and Military Engagement Following Philippines Summit.  In what constitutes the first meeting with a Philippine president in more than 10 years, U.S. President Joe Biden was set to meet with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr on Monday, at the start of Marcos’s four-day official visit to Washington. Marcos said a day earlier that he wanted to forge "an even stronger relationship" with the U.S. to "address the concerns of our times," especially regarding economic issues. In addition to trade, the Philippines is considered as a strategically important location to counter potential Chinese aggression against Taiwan. Reuters

Middle East & Northern Africa

US Central Command: Russian Fighter Jets Attempted to Provoke US Jets over Syria. According to the US Central Command, Russian fighter jets attempted to “dogfight” US jets over Syria. According to the statement, the pilots did not seem to be trying to shoot down the American jets, but rather they were trying to provoke the US in what has been a pattern of aggressive and unprofessional encounters.  The US Central Command released two videos of two separate incidents, one on April 2 which shows a Russian SU-35 fighter jet conducting an ‘unsafe’ intercept of a US F16 and another on April 18 which shows a Russian fighter violating coalition airspace.  CNN

Erdogan Announces that Islamic State Leader Killed by Turkish Intelligence. Islamic State leader Abu Hussein al-Qurashi was killed in Syria by Turkish intelligence forces according to a statement by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday. Erdogan made the announcement during an interview with Turkish broadcaster TRT Turk. According to Syrian security forces, the raid occurred in the northern town of Jandaris, which is under control of Turkey-backed rebel groups and was also heavily affected by the February 6 earthquake. Reuters

Not Even One American Should be in Iraq, Says Iranian Leader.  “The presence of even one American in Iraq is too much,” Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Saturday, according to Iranian state media outlet IRNA, following an unannounced visit to Baghdad from US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. That visit coincided with the upcoming anniversary of U.S.-led Iraq invasion. Tensions between the two countries have been growing on the heels of recent tit-for-tat attacks in Syria. For years, Iran has attempted to influence Iraq through proxy Shia parties in the Iraqi government. 

Sub Saharan Africa

As Air Strikes Target Khartoum, Envoy Says Sides are More Open to Talks.  Sudan entered a third week of conflict on Sunday with air strikes and artillery. Despite a ceasefire, the rival military forces continue to clash creating wider instability. Countries continue to evacuate their citizens, but the UN envoy offered some hope saying the warring sides are open to negotiation, but have not set a date. Hundreds are dead and thousands are wounded from the fighting, pushing Sudan towards civil war.  Reuters

UN Sending Envoy to Sudan as Warring Enters Third Week. United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres is bound for Sudan as fighting continues to consume the capital of Khartoum. The fighting pits rival military forces, and includes Sudan’s army and paramilitaries. The United Nations warned that the humanitarian situation had reached “breaking point,” and pointed to a “rapidly deteriorating humanitarian crisis,” that has already cost thousands of lives. Hostilities continued Monday despite a formal ceasefire. South China Morning Post Reuters

136 Killed in Burkina Faso Massacre. Last week, prosecutors launched an investigation into a massacre carried out in the northern village of Karma where residents and survivors claim 136 people including infants and women were killed by people wearing the armed forces uniforms. Burkina Faso battles many militants tied to al Qaeda and the Islamic State, which has spread over from Mali. The government condemned the attack on Karma last Thursday, but gave no casualty details. Survivors described heavily armed men in Burkinabe military uniforms with trucks, armored vehicles, and motorcycles arriving early in the morning. The civilians greeted them with rejoicing but were met with gunfire. Reuters

Cyber & Tech

FBI Director Tells Congress China Hackers Top FBI staff ‘At Least 50 to 1’. While requesting additional cyber funding from a House Appropriations subcommittee, FBI Director Christopher Wray said that Chinese hackers would outnumber FBI cyber staff “50 to 1” even if all existing Bureau analysts focused only on China. The FBI is seeking an additional $63.4 million in 2024 funding to add 192 positions to fight cyberthreats.  Wray said “it’s getting more and more challenging to discern where the nation-state threat ends and the cybercriminal threat begins.”  Currently, the FBI investigates 100 different ransomware variants and other cybercrime and nation-state threats, especially those originating in China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.  TheRecord

 Italy Lifts Ban on ChatGPT After Obtaining Privacy Concessions. Italy has lifted a ban on ChatGPT operations after OpenAI, the chatbot developer, agreed to several controls, including increased transparency on how the device processes information, and giving users the option of declining to use their information to train ChatGPT language models.   Italy’s privacy regulator said OpenAI had implemented most of its demands, acknowledging the “steps forward made by OpenAI to reconcile technological advancements with respect for the rights of individuals.”  Reuters TechCrunch Wall Street Journal    

EU Tech Regulator Says Political Agreement on Community AI Law Likely This Year.  EU tech regulator Margrethe Vestager has said the Community probably will have a political agreement in place this year to adopt the world's first major artificial intelligence law.  A preliminary agreement has been reached by the European Parliament to bring a draft of the EU AI Act to a vote by committee on May 11.  At a press conference Sunday at the G7 meeting in Japan, Vestager said "the reason why we have these guardrails for high-risk use cases is that cleaning up … after a misuse by AI would be so much more expensive and damaging than the use case of AI in itself."  Reuters

 G7 Ministers Agree To Pursue ‘Responsible AI’ as Generative AI Sweeps the World. Representatives of the G7 committed this weekend to promote “responsible” use of artificial intelligence, acknowledging the benefits of technologies like ChatGPT but also citing privacy concerns and potential for misuse.   A G7 statement noted that the participating nations “recognize the need to take stock in the near term of the opportunities and challenges of these technologies and to continue promoting safety and trust.”  The group’s statement adopted five policy principles to govern the development of AI and other emerging technologies:  “rule of law, due process, democracy, respect for human rights, and harnessing opportunities for innovation.”  Reuters South China Morning Post 

 Cyberattacks Rise in Japan as G7 Met on Threats to Digital Infrastructure, AI Risks. A steady rise in denial-of-service cyberattacks against company and government systems in Japan has been noted in the weeks leading up to the meeting of the G7 group of nations.  An official of Japan’s cybersecurity agency said “there is a possibility that [Japan] is being targeted as the host of the G7 summit, and we have warned relevant organizations to stay alert.”  The DDoS attacks began in mid-March and are continuing.  Most recently, Tokyo Electric Power and West Japan Railway suffered interruptions to website operations, which have been restored.  Websites of several central government offices, including the Cabinet Office public relations system, have also been impacted.  South China Morning Post

 New Malware Strain Deployed by Iranian Hackers Against Worldwide Targets. An Iran-sponsored APT group known as Mint Sandstorm or Charming Kitten has been identified by Bitdefender researchers as the source of a new “dropper” malware strain designed to deliver secondary malware into a targeted device.  The dropper malware dubbed BellaCiao has been discovered in folders named for Israel, Turkey, Austria, India, and Italy, indicating the hackers were organizing targets by country.  According to a Bitdefender researcher, the malware targets Microsoft Exchange servers.  It is designed so that after initial intrusion, the malware “can turn into almost like a stealth mode. It doesn't do anything until they are ready to weaponize their access.”  TheRecord

 Russian Hackers Use Fake ‘Windows Updates’ Against Ukrainian Government Targets.  The Ukrainian emergency response team has reported on a new Russian spoofing campaign that employs targeted emails to distribute bogus Windows security updates to government entities.  If the link is activated by an email recipient, a PowerShell script is loaded on the computer, simulating a Windows updating process.  As that process proceeds, a second PowerShell payload is downloaded in the background.  According the Ukrainian CERT, the second-stage payload is an information harvesting tool that gathers data and relays them to a designated service.  BleepingComputer

 U.S. Cyber Envoy Says Enemies Exploit Lack of Clarity in NATO Stance on Cyber Warfare. U.S. Cyberspace Ambassador Nathanial Fick told the RSA conference last week that NATO’s adversaries attempt digital actions against the alliance “they would never do to us using kinetic means because of the clarity of the response policies.”  Fick said clarification of NATO’s view of digital attacks on member states and how responses would be enforced would be to NATO’s “collective advantage.”  Another participant on the RSA panel, Nathalie Jaarsma, Netherlands ambassador at-large for security policy and cyber, said some countries have pushed for “an accumulation” of cyberattacks to be factored into Article 5 considerations.  TheRecord

 China Telecom Joins Generative AI Race Alongside Baidu, Alibaba. State-owned China Telecom has entered the competition against Chinese tech giants Alibaba and Baidu with the announcement that it is developing its own generative AI tool.  The telecommunications firm’s cloud unit, CTYun, said it will launch its rival application “in the near future.”  CTYun reportedly is testing pre-trained large language models, the technology that underpins generative AI technology.  China Telecom also has emerged as a rival to Alibaba, China’s largest cloud services operator, with the announcement that CTYun will reduce its prices, mirroring a move recently undertaken by Alibaba.  South China Morning Post