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Monday, March 13, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Havana Syndrome Harkens Back to Past Russian Use of Microwaves to Target Americans.  A recently updated U.S. intelligence assessment, which concluded foreign adversaries were “very unlikely” to blame for illnesses known as Havana syndrome, is drumming reminders of when Soviet leadership bombarded American embassy staffers with elevated levels of microwave radiation. Starting in 1953, according to recently declassified documents reported by Politico, the US embassy in Moscow was the focus of targeted microwave radiation. A hypothesis later emerged that the radiation was not intended to harm staffers, but rather to activate a listening device hidden in a wooden carving of the US emblem that hung in the ambassador’s residence. Radiation stricken US embassy staff were comparably treated with skepticism, Politico reports, to those who generations later claimed to have suffered from Havana Syndrome, an alleged set of medical symptoms experienced mostly by US diplomats and military personnel that was first reported in 2016. (Editor’s note: The recent intelligence assessment seems to have only spawned more discussions and disagreement about the syndrome. The Cipher Brief spoke with former Senior CIA Officer and Cipher Brief expert Marc Polymeropoulos about his thoughts on the report.)   Politico ODNI The Cipher Brief

Western Europe

Britain Boosting Defense Spending Ahead of AUKUS Deal.  British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced Sunday that the UK will increase defense spending by 5 billion pounds ($6 billion pounds) over the next two years.  The boost to the UK’s defense budget will go towards replenishing ammunition stocks, modernizing nuclear capabilities, and bolstering the AUKUS deal with the US and Australia.  More widely, Sunak said he will work to increase British defense spending by 2.5 percent of GDP in the long term.  BloombergBreaking DefenseReuters

UK Increasing Submarine-Related Exports to Taiwan.  Taiwan’s navy received a significant boost from the UK last year thanks to a sharp increase in British exports of submarine parts and technology.  UK government export licensing data shows British submarine-related exports to Taiwan totaled 167 million pounds ($201.29 million) in the first nine months of last year, worth more than exports from the last six years combined.  Sources say the increase in exports show greater willingness by Britain to back Taiwan and increased demand from Taiwan for military support.  China’s foreign ministry condemned the reported transfers, saying they violate the one-China principle and escalate cross-Strait tensions and that the UK should cease providing military support to Taiwan.  A British government spokesperson said the UK has a long history of trade with Taiwan and continues to support a peaceful resolution to the Taiwan issue.  Reuters

European Arms Imports Increasing, US Maintaining Dominance in Arms Market.  The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reports that European countries increased arms imports despite a global fall in arms trade.  The report says Europe increased imports of major weaponry by 47 percent between 2017 to 2022, with NATO members increasing arms imports by 65 percent in that period.  SIPRI escalated tensions with Russia prompted the upward trend in arms trade.  The report also noted that US arms exports increased by 14 percent from 2013-2017 with the US accounting for 40 percent of global arms exports, while Russia fell from 22 percent to 16 percent.  Analysts say the Ukraine war will likely continue to limit the export of Russian weapons exports moving forward.  Reuters

UK’s Sunak Meets With France’s Macron.  British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak met with French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday in the first bilateral British-French summit in five years.  Both leaders talked up the summit as a “new chapter” in post-Brexit cooperation.  Most notably, Sunak and Macron agreed to a financial framework to jointly address the flow of undocumented migrants through the English Channel, which will include funding for a new detention center and police force in France.  Both sides also expressed unity in their positions to continue supporting Ukraine against Russia’s invasion, adding that they will start joint training of Ukrainian marines.  BBC France 24 New York Times Politico

Central and Eastern Europe

Casualties Mount in Bakhmut as Both Russia Claims Advances, Ukraine Claims Continued Defense.  Both Ukraine and Russia report continued, intense fighting in the embattled eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.  Ukrainian military commanders have vowed not to withdraw and say their forces are repelling Russian attempts to capture the city.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy claimed that Ukrainian defenders have killed over 1,100 attacking Russian soldiers in Bakhmut in recent days.  The Institute for the Study of War backed Ukrainian claims that defenses are holding with its latest assessment noting no confirmed advances by Russian forces in Bakhmut.  In contrast, the head of Russia’s Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, says his mercenaries are “advancing” but that fighting is “very difficult” as his forces approach the city’s center.  Prigozhin also noted that Russian troops are supplying Wagner fighters with ammunition.  The resupplies are coming after Prigozhin accused the Russian military of deliberately keeping promised munitions from his men.  Associated Press Reuters 

China’s Xi Possibly Visiting Russia, Speaking With Zelenskiy Next Week.  Reuters reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping is planning to meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow next week.  If true, the visit will take place earlier than expected as media reports previously said Xi would make the trip to Moscow in April or May.  China’s foreign ministry did not comment on the Reuters report and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow would announce details about the visit when Beijing is ready to jointly do so.  Xi’s trip to Moscow would come as China and Russia say they are strengthening ties while Beijing simultaneously presents itself as a peace broker in Ukraine.  The Wall Street Journal also reports that Xi could additionally hold a video meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksiy next week, which would mark his first engagement with the Ukrainian leader since Russia’s invasion.  Reuters Wall Street Journal

Moldova Arrests Individuals Suspected of Fomenting Unrest.  Moldovan police arrested seven members of an alleged Moscow-orchestrated network suspected of planning plots to destabilize the country.  Authorities say that the group, which was led by a Moldovan-Russian, were “seeking to cause mass unrest” at upcoming protests organized by opposition leaders.  The arrests come after the White House said the US intelligence community believes individuals linked to Russian intelligence are helping stage the anti-government protests to trigger an insurrection against the pro-Western Moldovan government.  The arrests appear to confirm that Moldova has taken this warning seriously.  CNN Deutsche Welle

Asia

New Chinese Premier Li Qiang Calls for Economic Recovery, Cooperation With US.  China’s new Premier Li Qiang held his first press conference on Monday.  Li mainly focused on discussing the recovery of China’s economy post-Covid, pledging that the Chinese government will push policies to boost demand and investment and support private businesses.  He noted China’s planned shift towards high-quality development and science and technology research and highlighted Hong Kong’s key role as a major financial and trade center.  He also said there are many areas for the US and China to increase cooperation, primarily on trade and economic issues, and added that “decoupling” is just hype and that “suppression” is negative for either side.  Li was appointed as the second most powerful man in China on Saturday as the country’s annual legislative gathering known as the “Two Sessions” ended.  While Li, the former Shanghai Communist Party chief, has not served in China’s central government, he is a steadfast, loyal ally to Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Al Jazeera BBC CNN South China Morning Post

China Appoints US-Sanctioned General as Defense Minister.  China appointed Li Shangfu, a military aerospace expert and US-sanctioned general, as defense minister on Sunday.  Li was sanctioned by the US in 2018 over his purchase of combat aircraft and equipment from Russian arms exporter Rosoboronexport.  Analysts say that while his post is largely ceremonial and an award for his long career, he will still be a key player given his operational and technical background and experience in military modernization programs.  Bloomberg CNN Reuters South China Morning Post

China Unofficially Offers Workaround to Potential McCarthy Visit to Taiwan.  China is looking back in time to unofficially suggest potential ways to manage tensions over a possible visit by US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to Taiwan.  Via “track two” channels of analysts and former officials, Beijing has referred to the precedent set by the 1997 visit of then-Speaker Newt Gingrich to Taiwan, which was coupled by a visit by then-Vice President Al Gore to China at around the same time.  The dual visits ensured the US could send a top official to Taiwan while allowing China to save face by conducting a higher profile engagement with a more senior US official.  This could be repeated with a McCarthy trip to Taiwan being mirrored by a visit by Vice President Kamala Harris to China.  This plan was reportedly considered before being grounded with the downing of the Chinese spy balloon, and analysts say the proposal is unlikely to come to fruition given US distrust of China.  However, Beijing’s informal “observation” of the idea could suggest it wants to make greater efforts to avoid a similar escalation in tensions that followed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taipei and more widely ease friction with Washington.  South China Morning Post

North Korea Fires Submarine Missile Ahead of US-South Korea Drills.  North Korea fired two strategic cruise missiles from a submarine on Sunday.  North Korean state media reported the launch and said it successfully tested the underwater offensive capabilities of North Korean submarine units.  The missile test came before the US and South Korea launched joint drills called “Freedom Shield 23” on Monday.  The drills will include a computer simulation designed to test response to nuclear North Korean nuclear threats and combined field training exercises.  Associated Press CNN Kyodo News Reuters

Outgoing Micronesia President accuses China of ‘Political Warfare.’  Outgoing President of Micronesia David Panuelo accused China of engaging in ‘political warfare’ in a 13-page letter obtained by CNN.  In the letter, Panuelo accuses China of preparing to invade Taiwan, as well as engaging in bribery, political interference, and “direct threats” to Micronesia to ensure the country stays neutral in the event of an invasion.  China has dismissed the allegations in the letter as “smears and accusations.” CNN

Middle East and Northern Africa

UN Envoy Says Elections in Libya are Possible.  UN Libya envoy Abdoulaye Bathily told reporters on Saturday that it is possible to hold national elections in Libya by the end of the year if a roadmap and election laws are established by June.  His positivity on the matter came after Libya’s legislative bodies agreed to form a joint committee to draft the electoral laws.  The progress follows Bathily’s move last month to start an initiative to break the deadlock from Libya’s stalled December 2021 elections by creating a steering committee to facilitate elections.  Africa News Reuters

Saudi Arabia Announces Launch of New National Airline.  Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced on Sunday that the kingdom is creating a new national airline dubbed Riyadh Air. The airline will be headed by Tony Douglas, an airline industry veteran. According to Saudi state news agency SPA, the airline aims to service more than 100 locations by 2030 and will add around $20 billion to the kingdom’s non-oil GDP growth.  Bloomberg Reuters Washington Post

US Denies Iran Claim that Countries Agreed to Prisoner Swap.  Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian told Iranian state media on Sunday that the US and Iran have agreed to a prisoner swap and that the US was working on final details.  A White House National Security Council spokesperson later denied the claim as a “cruel lie,” but said that the Biden administration is committed to the release of Americans imprisoned in Iran.  Al Jazeera Associated Press BBC Reuters

Iran to Buy Russian Fighter Jets. Iranian state media IRIB reported on Saturday that Iran has reached a deal with Russia to buy advanced Su-35 fighter jets. According to the report, which quotes Iran’s mission to the UN, Tehran has also inquired about buying military aircraft from other unnamed countries. Russia has not confirmed the deal.  Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

Ethiopian Government Seeking to Block UN Investigation into Tigray Massacres. Ethiopia is planning to propose a motion to terminate a UN investigation into alleged abuses committed during the Tigray war.  A draft resolution says the proposal would end the investigation six months early and block the publication of findings made to date.  Ethiopia has been against the investigation since it started, accusing it of being a politically motivated attempt aimed at blocking funding to Ethiopia.  Deutsche Welle

Islamist Militants Kill 19 in DRC Raid. Suspected Islamist Militants killed at least 19 people and burned a medical facility in a raid in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo on Sunday morning. The attack hit the village of Kirindera in the North Kivu province, which is close to a nearby village where 35 people were killed in a similar attack last week.  Both attacks have been attributed to the Ugandan armed group Allied Democratic Forces (ADF).  Reuters

Blinken Set to Travel to Ethiopia and Niger.  The US State Department announced that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will travel to Ethiopia and Niger next week.  This tour will include the first ever visit by a US Secretary of State to Niger.  The trips come amid continued concerns over the implementation of the Ethiopia-Tigray peace agreement and escalating competition with China over influence over Africa.  Reuters

Cyber & Tech

FBI, European Law Enforcement Collaborate in Malware Website Seizure. The FBI and Croatian and Swiss authorities announced the arrest of an individual and the seizure of servers allegedly behind a website selling Netwire RAT malware. The remote access trojan (RAT) malware allows for the unauthorized remote control of targeted devices. A Croatian national named Mario Zanko has been connected to the malware according to cybersecurity journalist Brian Krebs. The Record

India Tech Minister Concerned about Impacts from Silicon Valley Bank Failure. India’s State Minister for Technology Rajeev Chandrasekhar announced on Sunday that he would be meeting with start-ups starting this week to assess the impact of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). The fall of SVB marks the biggest bank failure in the US since the 2008 financial crisis.  New Delhi is raising concerns over the SVB situation as it has impacted and unsettled entrepreneurs in India, which has one of the largest start-up markets in the world.  Reuters

Biden, EU President Agree to Talks on Clean Technology Incentives. Talks are in the works between the European Commission and President Joe Biden over proverbial carrots for the clean technology industry. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said during a meeting Friday at the White House clean technology deals being discussed will include getting greater access for EU-sourced critical raw materials to the US market.  She also said that the European Union was roundly welcoming the US Inflation Reduction Act due to its investments in green energy transition.  Bloomberg Reuters

South Korea’s Alignment with U.S, Japan Weakens China in Global Chip Supply Chain. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol is set to visit Japan this week.  He is expected to use the trip to try and persuade Tokyo to remove export controls on chip-making materials to South Korea, also marking the first time in 12 years that a Korean head of state has visited Japan. The move is expected to help align superconductor supply chains between the two nations, which – analysts say – could further isolate China’s production of advanced chips across global supply chains. South China Morning Post

Western Technology Finding Way to Russia Via Sanctions-Skeptical Nations.  Western sanctions have crippled sales to Russia of critical semiconductors, which are used in communications, military systems, transportation, and a variety of other applications. But nations such as China and even NATO member Turkey have been filling the gaps, either by selling their own materials and equipment directly to Moscow or simply reshipping goods to Russia. In recent months, Turkey’s overall shipments to Russia have approximately doubled to about $1 billion a month, while shipments from China have increased by more than $2 billion since December. China delivered $179 million worth of integrated circuits to Russia in 2022, up from just $74 million in 2021.  Wall Street Journal

Facebook Exploring New Decentralized Social Media Network.  With those flocking to Twitter wavering, Mark Zuckerberg is hoping Meta is betta. The co-founder of the social media giant Facebook and its parent company Meta Platforms is exploring the creation of a new decentralized, text-based social network. Codenamed “P92,” according to the Tech newsletter Platformer which first reported the project, the app would be intended to compete with Twitter amidst controversial changes in publishing rules since Elon Musk took over the company. The future platform is thought to be a stand-alone app, which users would then log in using their Instagram credentials.  Washington Post

Google Threatens News Cutoff Over Canadian Draft Online News Act.  Google will stop preventing news articles from surfacing in some Canadian users' search results by March 16. The revelation came when Google's public policy manager Jason Kee addressed a parliamentary committee investigating the tests by the search giant, which began censoring certain articles in response to a Canadian bill that intends to compel platforms to pay publishers in Canada.  Reuters

North Korean Hackers Posing as Recruiters to Infect Targets With Malware.  Offered a security research job on LinkedIn? It could be North Korean hackers. A suspected hacking group is believed to be posing as recruiters for security research jobs and convincing would-be victims to engage, and then migrate to the messaging platform, WhatsApp, where malware can be employed to access the target’s corporate systems. The operation, which was reported by Google’s Mandiant, intersects with other maneuvers connected to the North Korean cluster known as the “Lazarus group.”  Bleeping Computer CyberScoop

Medusa Ransomware Rapidly Expanding Worldwide.  ​​A relatively new ransomware operation is lobbing million-dollar ransom demands at a host of corporate victims. Known as Medusa, the operation has been posting companies’ private data in a blog for those who refuse to pay. The operation began in 2021, but has swelled its activity with the launch of this blog in 2023. Researchers have since been probing the operation for potential weaknesses, hoping to recover stolen files.  Bleeping Computer

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