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Friday, March 10, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Biden Proposes Fiscal 2024 Budget Boosting Cyber, Defense Capabilities.  President Joe Biden released his $842 billion fiscal 2024 budget request on Thursday.  The budget proposes a more than 3 percent increase in defense spending, including $170 billion for weapons procurement and $145 billion for Pentagon research and development.  The budget also calls for $37.7 billion for the modernization of US nuclear forces.  The request includes $9.1 billion for the Pentagon's Pacific Deterrence Initiative, designed to boost the US military’s presence in the Indo-Pacific to counter China.  And the request calls for $6 billion in unspecified support for Ukraine.  Generally, the budget highlighted commitment to modernizing US naval shipbuilding, support for the US submarine fleet, and investments in key technologies.  Regarding cyber, the budget would give $3.1 billion for CISA, including $425 million for a new Cyber Analytics Data System.  The budget would also give $63 million to the Justice Department for better intelligence collection, analysis and response capabilities.  The budget also includes $395 million for the State Department to support global cyber collaboration initiatives.  CyberScoop DefenseNews The Hill The White House Wall Street Journal Washington Post 

Mexico’s Lopez Obrador Condemns Calls for US Military Action Against Cartels.  Mexican President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador on Thursday criticized calls for US military action against drug cartels in Mexico.  Some US lawmakers are seeking military force against the cartels in response to a recent kidnapping of four Americans – in which two were killed – in northern Mexico.  Lopez Obrador said such calls are “irresponsible” and “an offense to the people of Mexico,” adding that Mexico “does not take orders from anyone” and will not allow a foreign government to intervene in its territory.  Lopez Obrador added that he will start a public information campaign aimed at Mexicans in the US about the proposal for US military action.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Mexican Gang Apologizes, Turns in Members for Kidnapping of Americans.  The Gulf Cartel in Mexico reportedly issued a letter on Thursday apologizing for the kidnapping of four Americans last week in which two of the Americans and a Mexican civilian were killed.  The Gulf Cartel said in the letter that it condemns the incident and has turned in the members of the group directly involved in the armed kidnapping, saying they acted “under their own determination and indiscipline” and against the Gulf Cartel’s rules.  Reuters reports that internal law enforcement documents suggest the gunmen responsible for the kidnappings may have mistaken the Americans for rival cartel members.  Associated Press BBC CNN

President Joe Biden to Visit Canada on March 23. US President Joe Biden is expected to make a two-day trip to Ottawa, Canada starting March 23 according to The White House. During his visit, President Biden is expected to meet with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and address the Canadian Parliament. This is President Biden’s first trip to Canada since taking office, and topics such as Haiti, clean energy, supply chains, climate change, and defense will be priorities according to the statement from The White House.  Politico

AUKUS Submarine Deal Faces Tech Sharing, Construction Challenges.  The leaders of the US, UK and Australia will meet in San Diego on Monday to discuss plans to build nuclear-powered submarines for the Australian navy under the AUKUS deal.  The arrangement will come in stages, with Australia first serving as a forward base for some US submarines, followed by Canberra purchasing up to five US-made Virginia-class nuclear submarines from the US in the 2030s, and ending with the joint construction by the UK and Australia of nuclear-powered submarines with US technology.  Challenges to the deal include the need to change export control rules to facilitate the transfer of sensitive technologies, as well as the burden on American and British shipyards.  Securing long-term commitment to the plan, especially regarding costs, is also a major concern.  Politico

DoD Funding Experiments on Animals to Investigate Havana Syndrome Cause.  Politico reports that the Pentagon is funding experiments on animals to determine the source of anomalous health incidents (AHIs) caused by the mystery illness Havana Syndrome.  According to public documents and sources, the US military funded research on the effects of radio frequency waves on ferrets and primates to test if they cause similar symptoms to victims of Havana Syndrome.  The report on the experiments suggest the Pentagon is still investigating if a deliberate attack caused Havana Syndrome cases despite a recent assessment released by US intelligence agencies that says there is no evidence a foreign adversary used a weapon to cause the AHIs.  Politico

Western Europe

Eight Dead in Shooting at Jehovah's Witness Church in Hamburg.   A gunman killed seven people in the Kingdom Hall of Jehovah’s Witness church in Hamburg, Germany late Thursday night. Authorities killed the gunman in the attack and say the shooter was not known to them as an extremist. Investigations into the shooting are ongoing.  Associated Press BBC Deutsche Welle Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Ukraine War Update.  Following the massive missile strike on Thursday, Russian forces are likely to continue offensive operations in the Vuhledar but pervasive logistics challenges will likely constrain any efforts significantly according to the latest update from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).  ISW assesses that claims of recent incremental gains made by Yevgeny Prigozhin are true, but says that Russian forces would need to advance approximately 24 km beyond the current front lines in order to leverage their recent gains for further offensive operations in the Donbass region.  Russian officials are also reportedly working to establish volunteer-based military units, under the leadership of state owned energy companies in a move that may be designed to reduce the financial burden on the Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD), broaden responsibility for recruiting and provide a hedge against the influence of Wagner Group.  ISW 

Ukrainian Official Says Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Will Start in Two Months.  An aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says that Ukraine’s counter-offensive will likely begin in two months. Mykhailo Podolyak says that Ukraine’s strategy to defend Bakhmut has been designed to deplete Russian forces and allow Ukraine’s military time to prepare for the coming offensive.  His comments came during an interview published in the Italian press where he added that Russia’s military is losing five to seven times as many personnel as Ukraine’s military.  Kyiv Post 

Russia Reportedly Sending Captured Western Weapons to Iran.  CNN reports that Russia has been capturing US and NATO-provided weapons from the battlefield in Ukraine and is sending them to Iran for suspected efforts to reverse-engineer the systems.  Sources said there have been several reports of Russian forces taking smaller, shoulder-fired weapons like Javelin anti-tank and Stinger anti-aircraft systems sometimes left by Ukrainians on the battlefield and then sending these systems to Iran.  It is unclear if Tehran has successfully reverse-engineered any of these weapons, though it has a record of doing so.  The Russian and Iranian governments have not commented on the report.  CNN

Lithuania Intelligence Chief Says Russia Can Continue Ukraine War for Two Years.  Lithuania’s military intelligence chief Elegijus Paulavicius told reporters on Thursday that Russia currently has enough resources to continue the Ukraine war “at the present intensity for two years.”  He added that Russia’s ability to maintain its invasion will also depend on military support from countries like Iran and North Korea.  Regarding Russian threats to Lithuania, Paulavicius said Moscow’s priority is “continuous long-term collection of information,” though he did not say if relevant hacking attempts have been successful.  Reuters

Former NATO Official Sworn in as Next Czech President.  Former Chairman of NATO’s military committee Petr Pavel was sworn in as the next president of the Czech Republic on Thursday.  Pavel defeated former Prime Minister Andrej Babis for the presidency after pledging during his campaign to cement the Czech Republic in NATO and the EU, as well as boost relations with the US.  In contrast, Pavel’s predecessor, Milos Zeman, had sought to form stronger relations with Russia and China. Deutsche Welle

Asia

China’s Xi Appointed President for Third Term.  China’s National People’s Congress unanimously voted on Friday to confirm Xi Jinping for an unprecedented third term as China’s president.  Xi will be backed by key allies and loyalists who will be appointed to top government positions over the next few days.  While Xi’s power mostly comes from his position as head of China’s Communist Party and the country’s military, he uses the largely ceremonial presidency to present himself as China’s face to the world.  Analysts say Xi will face significant challenges in his next five-year term as president, including economic recovery post-Covid, competition with the US, tensions over Taiwan and demographic concerns over China’s aging population.  New York Times Nikkei Asia South China Morning Post Wall Street Journal

US Sanctions Chinese Firms for Business With Iranian Company Selling Drones to Russia.  The US Treasury Department added five Chinese companies and one Chinese individual to its Specially Designated Nationals list for allegedly selling parts to the Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industrial Company, an Iranian manufacturer accused of selling Shahed-136 drones to Russia for use in its invasion of Ukraine.  The sanctions freeze the Chinese entities and individuals’ US assets and bars Americans from doing business with them.  Separately, the Treasury Department also sanctioned 17 Hong Kong-based firms for their suspected role in a “shadow banking” system for Iranian companies.  South China Morning Post US Department of the Treasury

Afghanistan Blast Kills Taliban Provincial Governor.  An explosion killed the Taliban governor of Afghanistan’s Balkh province in his office on Thursday.  Authorities say that the blast killed another person and injured several others.  Officials say the cause of the explosion is still under investigation, though Al Jazeera reports that the blast was a suicide bombing that ISIL claimed responsibility for.  The killing of the governor, who was known for countering ISIL in the area, came after he visited the capital Kabul for talks with top officials.  Al Jazeera CNN Reuters RFE/RL

Middle East and Northern Africa

Saudi Arabia, Iran Agree to Re-Establish Diplomatic Ties.  Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to re-establish diplomatic relations and re-open embassies within two months.  Both sides announced the agreement in a joint statement which says Riyadh and Tehran agreed to respect each other’s sovereignty and not interfere in each other’s internal affairs.  State media from both countries say the agreement came after talks in the Chinese capital of Beijing.  Saudi Arabia broke off ties with Iran in 2016 after protesters in Tehran stormed the Saudi embassy to protest the execution of a Shi’ite cleric in Saudi Arabia.  Al Jazeera Associated Press CNN

Hamas Gunman Injures Three in Tel Aviv.  A Palestinian gunman injured three people in a shooting in Tel Aviv on Thursday.  Israeli police killed the shooter in the attack.  The Islamist militant group Hamas claimed the gunman as a member.  Hamas added that the attack was in response to a shootout earlier in the day in the northern West Bank town of Jaba where Israeli forces killed three gunmen from the militant group Islamic Jihad.  The incidents add to a recent escalation of violence in the West Bank and Israel.  Al Jazeera Reuters Wall Street Journal

Israel’s President Condemns Proposed Judicial Overhaul. Israeli President Isaac Herzog on Thursday criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu’s plan to overhaul the country’s judicial system. In the speech to Israeli lawmakers, Herzog said that the legislation “must pass from this earth.”  The plan, which will weaken Israel’s top court, has sparked protests involving hundreds of thousands of demonstrators which have lasted for 10 weeks.  Critics of the proposal say that the plan would be damaging to Israel’s democracy.  Wall Street Journal 

Sub Saharan Africa

NSTR

Cyber & Tech

U.S., India to Sign Memorandum of Understanding on Semiconductors. US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo announced on Thursday that the US and India will sign a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in semiconductor investment and production.  Raimondo announced the agreement during her four-day trip to India, where she was accompanied by the CEOs of 10 top US companies.  Raimondo said that moving forward, the US and India are expected to jointly evaluate semiconductor supply chains to look for opportunities for joint ventures and technology partnerships. Reuters 

Iran-Linked Hackers Used Atlantic Council Persona Against Human Rights Researchers.  Cybersecurity firm Secureworks released a report on Thursday that identifies an Atlantic Council linked persona being used by an Iranian hacker group. The report says that the hacking group – known as COBALT ILLUSION, Charming Kitten and APT42 – has used the persona, known as Sara Shokouhi, in phishing attacks where the group reaches out to researchers and ask them if they would be willing to contribute to an Atlantic Council report. It is not clear whether or not this has resulted in any successful attacks. Cyberscoop

Belgium, Slovenia Join EU Cyber Force to Bolster Crisis Response.  The Lithuanian Ministry of National Defense announced that Belgium and Slovenia are joining the EU cyber rapid response force.  The EU's Permanent Structured Cooperation Cyber Rapid Response Teams and Mutual Assistance In Cyber Security project was launched in 2018 and is being spearheaded by Lithuania.  Currently, the team consists of 8-12 cyber security experts from six EU member states, and provides preventive cybersecurity support and cyber incident response. Baltic Times

Israeli Cyber Agency Says Iran Group Behind University Hack. Israel’s National Cyber Directorate has linked a February cyberattack on the Technion University in Israel to an Iranian affiliated hacking group known as MuddyWater. According to a statement from the agency, the group used malware designed to encrypt the university’s operating systems. MuddyWater has a history of attacks dating back to 2015 and has been publicly linked to the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security by the US government.  In its statement on MuddyWater, Israel’s National Cyber Directorate also warned that the upcoming month of Ramadan will likely see more cyberattacks targeting Israeli entities.  CyberScoop

Cyber Researchers Warn of Escalation in AI-Enhanced Scams.  Cybersecurity firm Darktrace warns that since the release of the generative AI ChatGPT, cyber criminals have been increasingly using AI in extortive cyberattacks.  The company said AI has empowered threat actors to produce more sophisticated social engineering scams, relying less on tricking victims into clicking malicious links and more on launching campaigns with greater linguistic complexity to gain victims’ trust.  Darktrace added that the use of AI in these scams has not led to a wave of new threat actors but has instead prompted existing cybercriminals to shift tactics and methods.  The Guardian

Air Force Creates Directorate of Digital Transformation.  The Air Force Research Laboratory has formed a new Digital Capabilities Directorate (DCD) and an associated “labverse” designed to accelerate and support the Air Force’s modernization and technology development efforts.  Officials say the DCD will work to leverage best practices in the private sector to streamline research and business operations and that the “labverse” will work towards building a future information technology architecture.  DefenseScoop

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