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Wednesday, February 2, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

Americas

Chinese Spy Balloon in US Airspace.  The Pentagon said Thursday that the US military has been tracking a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon over the US for several days.  President Biden reportedly asked for military options to destroy the balloon, which was originally reported by a civilian aircraft, but the Pentagon balked on the option of kinetic action over fear of civilian casualties. A US official told the Wall Street Journal that the State Department had summoned the “most senior” Chinese embassy official to deliver what was described as a “stark” message.  Pentagon Spokesman Brigadier General Pat Ryder says that once the balloon was detected the US government acted immediately to protect against the collection of sensitive information.  Pentagon officials have also said that similar balloons have been spotted over other parts of the US in the past.  China’s Foreign Ministry released a statement that said the balloon was a research vessel that had strayed far from its intended course due to winds, and that China regretted that the balloon had entered US airspace.  Multiple media reports highlight that this incident comes at a time of heightened tension between Washington and Beijing. US officials said Friday morning that Antony Blinken’s upcoming trip to China has now been postponed.  Reuters Washington Post  Wall Street Journal  CNN

Don’t Underestimate Xi’s Ambitions on Taiwan- CIA Director Burns.  CIA Director William Burns says that the US knows “as a matter of intelligence” that Chinese President Xi Jinping has instructed the military to be ready to conduct an invasion of Taiwan by 2027.  Burns, who spoke at Georgetown University also says that Xi is closely observing the Ukraine war and has likely been ‘sobered’ by the poor performance of Russia’s military.  Burns cautioned however that we should not underestimate Xi’s ambitions on taking Taiwan, and called China the most significant “geopolitical challenge” currently facing the US.  Reuters

US Releases ‘High Value’ Prisoner from Guantanamo Bay.  The US released Majid Khan, a longtime detainee at Guantanamo Bay, in Belize on Thursday.  Khan’s attorneys said that his resettlement marks the first release of a “high-value” prisoner sent to Guantanamo.  Khan was first captured by the CIA in Pakistan in 2003.  He entered into a cooperation agreement with the US in 2012, promising to provide testimony in other cases in exchange for a reduced sentence of 10 years in prison.  His sentence concluded in March 2022 and he was freed accordingly.  With his release, thirty-four inmates now remain at Guantanamo.  Washington Post

Brazil Senator Says Invited to Election Conspiracy Meeting with Bolsonaro.  Brazilian Senator Marcos do Val told reporters on Thursday that a former colleague invited him to a meeting with former President Jair Bolsonaro on a conspiracy to overturn the results of Brazil’s most recent presidential election.  Val said that the former lawmaker Daniel Silveira, who is a close ally of Bolsonaro, attempted to persuade Val to get the head of Brazil’s electoral court, Justice Alexandre de Moraes, to make compromising comments in a recorded conversation which could potentially lead to his ousting.  Moraes has been investigating Bolsonaro over his role in a possible election conspiracy and eventually issued an arrest warrant for Silveira for his attacks on the judiciary.  Val’s comments about his alleged meeting with Bolsonaro are the strongest evidence that the former president sought to overturn his defeat in last year’s presidential election.  Reuters The Guardian

Western Europe

EU Lawmakers Agree on Stronger Rules Limiting Political Ads.  Lawmakers in the EU have agreed on a set of new rules meant to reign in the use of targeted political advertising on tech platforms.  The move is part of a larger effort to counter misinformation during elections.  Among the new measures are restrictions that prevent the use of “microtargeting”, an advertising strategy that uses specific individual data to personal ads.  Also included is a blanket ban on non-EU entities financing political advertisements in the EU, and a requirement that tech companies provide more information about political advertisements with significant financial penalties for violations.  Reuters

US Senators Publicly Link F16 Sale to Turkey with Sweden/Finland NATO Bid. A bi-partisan group of 29 US senators sent a letter to President Joe Biden this week where they said that a pending $20 billion sale of F16 fighter aircraft to Turkey should be contingent upon Turkey’s approval of Sweden and Finland’s NATO applications.  This marks the first time that Congress has publicly linked the two deals together, something the Biden administration has been reluctant to do. Of the 30 nations that are members of NATO, only Turkey and Hungary have not ratified the applications for the two countries.  Turkey has signaled that it could move forward with approving Finland’s bid, but has held out giving support to Sweden over disagreements with what Turkey says is Swedish support for Turkish dissidents inside of Sweden.  Reuters CNN

Central and Eastern Europe

Ukrainian Intelligence Official Says Putin Orders Military to Launch Major New Offensive.  Multiple analysts and media reports suggest that the Russian military is preparing to launch a significant new offensive in an attempt to retake the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.  The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) cites a Ukrainian intelligence official who says that Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the Russian military to take all of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts by March 2023.  This comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warns that Moscow is mobilizing for what he calls a “revenge” attack against the west and as CIA Director William Burns, speaking at Georgetown University says that he believes the next six months on the battlefield will be critical.  Ukrainian officials and western analysts say that despite threats by Russian officials and what is clearly an effort by Russia to mobilize a large number of forces, that Russia’s military likely does not have the capability to achieve its goals in Ukraine’s east and south in the near term.  Reuters CNN ISW 

EU Leaders to Announce Further European Integration for Ukraine.  EU Commission Head Ursula Von der Layen says that the future of the European continent is being written in Ukraine, and called the war a “fight of democracies against authoritarian regimes”.  Her comments came during a visit to Kyiv where she met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and said the two leaders discussed increasing sanctions on Moscow.  The EU also recently announced a decision to increase the number of Ukrainian troops that are being trained to 30,000 this year and increased funding for de-mining operations in Ukraine.  A summit is set for today that will include Von der Layen, Zelenskiy and President of the European Council Charles Michel.  Analysts say that despite progress on reigning in corruption, that Ukraine’s hopes of a rapid accession to the European union are not likely, but EU leaders are working on a draft statement, seen by Reuters where they will announce “further European integration” with Ukraine, and a new package of tougher sanctions on Moscow.  Reuters Al Jazeera France24

Asia

China’s Military Reveals Capabilities of Hypersonic Anti-Ship Missiles for the First Time.  China’s military has, for the first time, publicly revealed the capabilities of its most advanced hypersonic anti-ship missile in a move that Chinese analysts say is a clear message to the US.  Details of the missile, known as the YJ-21, or “Eagle Strike- 21” were posted on the official Weibo account of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Strategic Support Force on Thursday.  China says the missile has a terminal velocity of Mach 10 and cannot be defeated by any current anti-missile defense.  One Chinese analyst says that the PLA’s move to publicly reveal the capabilities of the ship was viewed as necessary to send the US a “warning”.  South China Morning Post 

Middle East and Northern Africa

Israel, Sudan Normalizing Ties.  The Israeli and Sudanese foreign ministries said Thursday that Israel and Sudan have finalized a deal to normalize relations.  A signing ceremony to finalize the agreement will take place after Sudan transitions from military rule to a civilian government.  The deal builds upon deals for both countries to pursue recognition to build on Israel’s normalization of relations with several Arab states in the Abraham Accords.  Reuters

Cyber and Tech

Members of National Security Panel Urging Justice Department to consider espionage charges against self-driving truck firm.  Anonymous sources speaking to The Wall Street Journal say members of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS) are urging the Justice Department to consider espionage charges against a self-driving truck company over ties to China.  TuSimple company spokeswoman Megan Strader told the paper that CFIUS hasn’t raised any allegations of economic espionage with company officials and says the company has been communicating and cooperating with the committee’s requests. The paper reports that a recommendation for criminal charges was made last year over concerns that company executives were transferring technology to a Chinese start-up.  The Wall Street Journal 

DARPA is looking for a new kind of seaplane.  The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the development arm of the Pentagon, has tapped two private sector companies to develop a seaplane that can carry a lot of heavy equipment - including Abrams tanks - and would be able to both take off and land in rough sea waters.  The heavy lift has been tasked to General Atomics and Aurora Flight Sciences - which is a subsidiary of Boeing. Defense News

 Ransomware Attack Hits UK Trading Firm ION.  ION Trading UK, a financial software and data firm, says it has been hit by a ransomware attack.  The firm’s parent company ION Group said the attack has been ongoing since Tuesday and disrupted all processing of clients’ financial trading.  An ION official says the attack does not pose a wider threat to the financial sector as a whole.  The FBI says it is monitoring the situation and agrees that there is no “systemic financial risk” from this incident.  LockBit ransomware gang has since claimed responsibility for the attack.    Bloomberg Reuters TechCrunch 

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