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Friday, February 24, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

UN Condemns Russia Over Ukraine War. The UN General Assembly voted overwhelmingly to back a resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the one-year mark of the war.  The resolution called for an immediate end to the fighting and the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. 141 countries voted in favor of the resolution, 32 abstained and seven voted against. The seven countries who voted against the measure are Russia, Belarus, North Korea, Syria, Mali, Eritrea and Nicaragua.   Al Jazeera BBC Reuters

US Sends Two Guantanamo Bay Detainees to Pakistan.  The Pentagon announced Thursday that the US transferred two detainees from the Guantanamo Bay US detention facility in Cuba to Pakistan.  The two detainees were Pakistani brothers who were arrested in 2002 for supporting al Qaeda.  Their repatriation to Pakistan brings the number of people held at Guantanamo down to 32.  Al Jazeera New York Times Reuters

Canada Investigating TikTok Over Data Collection, Use.  Canada is launching a joint federal and provincial investigation into TikTok over concerns about the Chinese-owned social media platform’s “collection, use and disclosure” of user information.  The Office of the Privacy Commissioner of Canada said the investigation will examine if TikTok complies with Canadian privacy laws and if the platform obtains proper consent to collect and use users’ personal information.  Canada is the latest country to scrutinize TikTok on security and privacy grounds.  TikTok maintains it respects data privacy and protection of its users.  CBC Reuters

Western Europe

Hungary Says More Talks Needed on Sweden, Finland NATO Membership.  Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Friday that some Hungarian parliamentary groups still need time to further discuss before voting on Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership bids.  Speaking on public radio, Orban said he asked members of his nationalist Fidesz party to support their bids but that some lawmakers were “not very enthusiastic” due to issues like Finland’s long land border with Russia and Finland and Sweden’s criticism of the health of democracy and rule of law in Hungary.  Orban reiterated that Hungary has the “moral obligation” to back the inclusion of the Nordic countries in the alliance but said that he will consider the doubts of his parliament.  He also said that Turkey’s grievances against Sweden should not be dismissed.  Hungary is currently scheduled to vote on ratifying Sweden and Finland’s membership applications on March 6.  Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Ukraine Pledges Victory at One-Year Mark of War.   Ukrainian President Volodymry Zelensike marked the somber one year mark of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with a defiant tone and a commitment to victory.  Calling February 24, 2022 Ukraine’s longest day, Zelenskiy hailed Ukrainians resilience after a year of war, and promised that 2023 will be the year of Ukraine’s victory.  Victory for Ukraine is a message that has been echoed by other Western leaders and comes amid new commitments of military and economic aid and fresh sanctions on Russia. Associated Press Wall Street Journal CNN   

Poland Delivers First Leopard Tanks to Ukraine.  Poland has become the first NATO country to deliver advanced main battle tanks to Ukraine. Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki was in Kyiv to mark the one-year mark of the war, where he said that four Leopard tanks had been delivered to Ukraine’s military.   Morawiecki says that Poland will support Ukraine until it defeats Russia and that more tanks would be delivered. He also said that Warsaw stands ready to train Ukrainian pilots on F16, but underscored that such a decision should be carried out with the broader NATO coalition.  NY Times Deutsche Welle 

Zelenskiy Open to Talks With China.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has shared that he is open to dialogue with China at a press conference in Kyiv. China, a close Russian ally, recently released a document on how the country plans to help resolve the Ukraine crisis through political means.  Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said earlier this week that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had shared some of the plan with him during a meeting in New York.  Zelenskiy added that the more that societies of large, influential countries engage to end the war, the sooner it will happen.  Reuters 

US, Allies Impose New Russia Sanctions.  The US and its allies have announced new sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.  The White House is set to raise tariffs on Russian products that the US imports, including metals, minerals and chemical products worth around $2.8 billion to Russia.  The US Commerce Department is also imposing export controls on 90 companies in Russia and “third-country” supporters of Moscow, including China, for supporting Russia’s defense sector and engaging in sanctions evasion.  The UK issued export bans on every item Russia has used in the Ukraine war and import bans on iron and steel goods from Russia and third-countries.  Britain is also sanctioning 92 individuals and entities in Russia.  The G20 is also planning sanctions that will target 200 individuals and entities in Russia and “third-country actors” as well as a dozen Russian financial institutions.  The G20 also plans to form an “Enforcement Coordination Mechanism” to counter Russian sanctions evasion.  BBC CNN Politico Reuters UK Government US Department of the Treasury

Russia’s Medvedev Suggests Pushing Back Polish Borders.  Former Russian President Dmitri Medvedev said Friday that Russia will only have lasting peace with Ukraine if it pushes back the borders of hostile states, including the borders of NATO member Poland.  He said that there will be “some kind of agreement” with Ukraine and the West following the Ukraine war, but that there will be a “fundamental agreement on real borders” and that Russia must extend its borders now to avoid a pact that includes European overreach.  Poland shares long eastern borders with both Ukraine and Russian ally Belarus.  Russian encroachment on Polish territory would mark the first direct conflict between Moscow and NATO, and comes as President Biden again pledged to defend “every inch” of NATO territory in a speech this week in Warsaw.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Blinken Says India, South Africa On Slow Path Away from Russia.  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in an interview with The Atlantic on Thursday that countries like India and South Africa are slowly shifting away from Russia but will not turn away “in one fell swoop.”  Blinken says that such countries have long-standing ties with Russia, with some going back to the Soviet Union, and that having these countries distance themselves from Moscow is “not flipping a light switch, it’s moving an aircraft carrier.”  India has maintained ties with Russia for trade, oil and weapon supplies.  South Africa, which recently held joint naval drills with Russia and China, had strong ties with the Soviet Union, which supported anti-apartheid activists in the Cold War.  Reuters The Atlantic

Russia Launches Rescue Capsule to ISS.  Russia on Friday successfully launched a rescue capsule from Kazakhstan which will return three astronauts on the International Space Station back to Earth.  The astronauts – a US astronaut and two Russian cosmonauts – were unable to return as planned when their original return capsule was punctured by a suspected micrometeorite.  While the rescue capsule will dock with the ISS in the coming days, it will not bring the astronauts back until September when a replacement crew is ready for launch.  Bloomberg Deutsche Welle

Asia

China Calls for Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire.  Beijing has released a 12-point plan to end the war in Ukraine according to media reports and the Chinese Foreign Ministry.  China says that dialogue and negotiations “are the only feasible” solution to end the war. China is calling for a cease fire and discussions on prisoners of war, ceasing attacks on civilians, resuming grain shipments and limiting the threats of nuclear war.  Notably, the paper takes a negative view of Russian sanctions and says that China opposes such moves which it says are not authorized by the UN Security Council.  The proposal was met with skepticism by western leaders who acknowledge that the ideas presented have merit, but that Russia could end the war immediately if it chooses, and that China’s recent “no limits friendship” and failure to condemn the war compromise its position on solutions to end the conflict.  (Ed. Note- in yesterday’s Subscriber+ briefing the DIA’s Director of Analysis Dr. Trent Maul noted that the Russian military’s strategy is now to ‘play for time’, betting that western political support for the war will start to fray and that Russia’s larger size will allow it to outlast and defeat Ukraine through attrition).   Deutsche Welle Associated Press Bloomberg

China to Launch Network of 13,000 Satellites to Compete With Starlink.  Researchers at the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Space Engineering University in Beijing say China is planning to launch a massive satellite network in near-Earth orbit to provide global internet services and “suppress” Elon Musk’s Starlink network.  The researchers said the project, codenamed “GW,” will include 12,992 satellites owned by China Satellite Network Group Co.  The specific launch schedule for the GW constellation is unknown, but the researchers say it will be deployed quickly to compete with the planned Starlink network of 12,000 satellites in 2027.  South China Morning Post

Chinese Drone Maker Reportedly Considering Shipments to Russia.  German newspaper Der Spiegel reports, without citing specific sources, that Chinese drone manufacturer Bingo Intelligent Aviation Technology has agreed to produce and test 100 ST-180 prototype drones and send them to the Russian Defense Ministry by April.  The newspaper said the Chinese drones can reportedly carry a 35-50 kilogram warhead and are similar to Iran’s Shaheed-136, which Russia is already using in Ukraine.  The report comes after the US, Germany and others warned China against providing lethal support to Russia.  In response to the report, China’s foreign ministry said it was not aware of the alleged drone deal, adding that there is “too much disinformation spread about China” and that Beijing does not export arms to conflict areas.  Bingo Intelligent responded by rejecting the deal outright, saying it “has no commercial contact with Russia.”  Reuters Vice

North Korea Fires Cruise Missiles as US, South Korea Hold Nuclear Tabletop Drill.  North Korea test-fired four cruise missiles on Friday.  North Korean state media said the missiles were launched towards the Sea of Japan in a demonstration of Pyongyang’s “war posture” and “nuclear combat force.”  It is the first time North Korea has tested long-range cruise missiles since September 2021.  The launches came as the US and South Korea conducted a “table-top” exercise in Washington that simulated the scenario of North Korea using a nuclear weapon.  Both sides said they used the drill to reaffirm readiness to respond to aggression from Pyongyang.  Deutsche Welle Reuters 

US Planning to Expand Taiwan Military Training.  The US is reportedly planning to increase the number of US troops in Taiwan to train their forces in the coming months.  Officials familiar with the plan said it is unclear what this increase would look like but maintained that it is not in response to tensions from the Chinese spy balloon incident.  The Pentagon and Taiwan’s defense ministry did not provide specifics or directly confirm an expansion in the US training mission.  Taiwan’s official Central News Agency reported earlier this week that around 500 Taiwanese soldiers would be headed to the US for training, which Taiwan’s Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng indirectly confirmed.  Reuters Wall Street Journal

Middle East and Northern Africa

Oman Opens Airspace to Israeli Carriers.  Oman opened its airspace to all airlines on Thursday, including the national carriers of Israel.  The move builds upon Saudi Arabia’s decision last year to allow Israeli overflights of Saudi territory.  The development means that Israel now has a direct air corridor to Asia and Australia via Oman and Saudi Arabia, which both still do not formally recognize Israel but have signaled tacit support of regional diplomatic breakthroughs between Israel and Arab neighbors.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

NSTR

Cyber & Tech

Researchers Say Russian Influence Operations Weak, Favor Quantity Over Quality.  Meta and other social media researchers have released findings on Russian media influence operations that suggest they are becoming less sophisticated, favoring quantity over quality.  Meta’s report described takedowns of relatively unsophisticated Facebook accounts that were pushing pro-Russian propaganda which the company’s automated systems were able to easily identify.  Meta said the operatives of these campaigns are still trying to rebuild their networks.  Meta researchers said the high-volume, low-quality nature of such Russian information campaigns today may come from wartime pressures and an understanding that more sophisticated campaigns will also be caught anyway.  Other researchers have made similar conclusions, pointing to the rapid de-platforming of Russian state media.  These findings add to evidence that Russian information operations are not as effective as predicted.  CyberScoop

Ukraine Says New Russian “Backdoor” Hacks Planted as Early as 2021.  The Computer Emergency Response Team of Ukraine (CERT-UA) says Russian state hackers breached state websites this week using backdoors created as far back as December 2021.  Ukrainian cyber authorities said the breaches did not cause “essential system failures or disruptions” that would affect Ukrainian government operations, but the incidents underscore the long-term threat of Russian attacks in cyberspace.  BleepingComputer

Google Claims Quantum Error Correction Breakthrough.  Google claims it has made a breakthrough in correcting errors inherent in quantum computing.  The errors come from the fact that in current quantum machines, quantum bits (qubits) only hold quantum states for fractions of a second, thus losing encoded information before calculations are completed.  Google’s breakthrough reportedly involves spreading the information across qubits to allow the system as a whole to retain enough encoded information to complete calculations.  Google’s testing of this process so far only produced a reduction of 4 percent in calculation error rates , but it could mark a first step to refining the computing enough for practical purposes.  Computing Financial Times

Food Giant Dole Suffers Ransomware Attack.  Produce giant Dole Food Company says it recently suffered a ransomware attack.  The company says the attack had a limited impact but that it did have to temporarily shut down production plants in North America to isolate the hack.  Dole said the attack also forced it to halt some food shipments and that an investigation is ongoing.  CNN BleepingComputer Bloomberg

Netherlands Says Not All Russian Cyberattacks Known.  Dutch intelligence released a report this week warning that not all Russian cyber operations against Ukraine and its allies have been made public.  The report says that while many private sector entities have reported Russian cyberattacks, not all activity has been disclosed.  The report blamed the massive scale of Russian cyber operations and the secrecy of certain targeted organizations, like military and diplomatic bodies, as the reason for this discrepancy.  Despite this, the report praises Ukrainian and Western cyber defenses as being effective in limiting the success of Russian cyber operations.  The Record

Coming US Cyber Strategy Compels Large Firms To Embed Product, System Security.  Camille Stewart Gloster, the deputy national cyber director for technology and ecosystem security, told audience members at a CyberScoop event on Thursday that the highly anticipated White House cybersecurity strategy document will include elements to compel large companies to strengthen security of their products and digital systems.  Her comments back media reports that say an early draft of the document includes mandatory regulations for US critical infrastructure companies to strengthen their cyber defenses.  The strategy is expected to mark a shift from previous voluntary approaches to US cybersecurity policy in favor of regulation.  CyberScoop

RT YouTube Videos Spreading Ukraine Disinformation Despite Ban.  US disinformation watchdog Newsguard released a report saying it has found hundreds of videos from Russia Today (RT) uploaded on YouTube despite the video platform’s ban on all Russian state-funded media.  YouTube imposed the ban in March 2022 to counter Russian narratives denying and minimizing the destruction from Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.  Despite this, Newsguard found 250 uploads of 50 RT-created videos about the Ukraine war across over 100 YouTube channels since the ban.  The report underscores the continued prevalence and difficulty in monitoring Russian disinformation and propaganda.  The Guardian

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