Friday, February 10, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
US Defense and Intelligence Officials Brief Congress on Balloon Details. US officials held a closed door briefing with Congress on Thursday where they discussed what is known so far about the balloon according to multiple media reports that cite anonymous individuals familiar with the briefings. According to the reports, US lawmakers were told that the balloon’s payload had parts with English writing on them. US officials said earlier on Thursday that the US military had deployed a U2 spy plane which was able to take high-resolution photos of the balloon as it traveled across the US. The FBI is conducting the investigation into the balloon’s payload but told reporters on Thursday that its agents are still waiting to receive the main payload components, (Editorial note-possibly suggesting they are still being reviewed by the US intelligence community). This comes as lawmakers were also told during the briefing that the US believes that Chinese President Xi Jinping was unaware of the balloon program. However at least one expert in Chinese politics was quoted in a CNN report that said the US assessment was unlikely given Xi’s level of autocratic control, and that it could be the US was simply forwarding that message as a way of giving Beijing an opportunity to save face. Bloomberg CNN South China Morning Post
US Briefed 40 Nations on Chinese Balloon. At briefings in Washington and Beijing, the United States provided information on the downed Chinese surveillance balloon to diplomats from 40 countries. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman conducted the Washington briefing for almost 150 diplomats. According to diplomats attending the Beijing briefing,information was provided to demonstrate that the balloon was not a weather research device, as claimed by the Chinese, but an intelligence-gathering aerial platform. Reuters
US Sanctions MS-13 Gang in Nicaragua, Honduras. The Treasury Department has sanctioned two individuals in Nicaragua and Honduras linked to the MS-13 criminal gang. The Department accused the gang members of involvement in drug trafficking and murder in Central America and the United States. Previously, MS-13 leaders have been charged by the U.S. with terrorism and have pressured El Salvador to extradite gang members. Reuters
U.S. Sharply Rejects Accusation of Involvement in Nord Stream Pipe Destruction. The White House described as"utterly false and complete fiction" a blog report by investigative journalist Seymour Hersh that alleges that the U.S. was secretly responsible for the destruction of two Nord Stream pipelines last September. The denial was echoed by statements from the State Department and the Central Intelligence Agency. Moscow immediately seized an opportunity to advance the report by Hersh and called for the US to be held accountable for what it described as “facts’ that were presented. An investigation by Sweden and Denmark into the attacks has so far not publicly identified a responsible party, though experts and reports to date have widely suggested that the attack was a deliberate ‘act of sabotage’. Reuters Reuters South China Morning Post
Western Europe
Chinese Diplomat to EU Criticizes European Support for Ukrainian Victory. China’s top diplomat to the European Union (EU) Fu Cong criticized countries for supporting the idea of “complete victory” for Ukraine in the war against Russia. His comments came on the eve of Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky’s arrival in Brussels. Cong says that Beijing is worried about escalation in the conflict and that the security concerns of both countries, Ukraine and Russia should be considered. Cong also criticized the bloc for what he described as an “erosion” of the EU’s commitments on Taiwan, a country that Cong says is part of China. Cong called on EU leaders to stop visiting Taiwan and warned that if the EU were to negotiate a trade deal with Taipei, it would “fundamentally change” the relationship between Beijing and the EU. Politico
Macron Awards Zelenskiy France’s Highest Honor Award, Considers Stripping Putin of Same Award. French President Emmanuel Macron bestowed France’s highest award of honor, the Grand Cross of the Legion of Honor, to Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy. The award ceremony happened during Zelenskiy’s visit to Paris on Thursday. The move prompted some French lawmakers and activists to call on Macron to strip the award from Russian President Vladimir Putin, a previous recipient. Macron says he has not ruled out the idea, and noted that he has stripped previous awardees of the medal including Harvey Weistein and US cyclist Lance Armstrong. Macron says such a decision is serious and must be made at the correct time. France24
Central and Eastern Europe
Zelenskiy Tells EU that Ukraine Fights for European Way of Life. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy addressed European Union (EU) lawmakers in Brussels in what was described as an impassioned speech where he tied Ukraine’s future to Europe. Zelenskiy says that Ukrainians are defending against Russia, who he described as ‘the most anti-European force of the modern world’ and that Ukraine is fighting to preserve the European way of life. During the speech, which was reportedly interrupted by multiple rounds of applause, Zelenskiy said “this is our Europe” and he said his country’s home is with the EU. Politico Deutsche Welle
Missiles target Ukraine's East as Some Say Russian Offensive Has Begun. Russian missiles targeted sites in Ukraine’s east as some Ukrainian officials say that Russia’s awaited offensive has already begun. The acting Mayor of Zaporizhzia said that 17 missiles had hit and an official with a regional electrical grid operator said that electricity supplies across the country were down. Air raid alerts were heard in Kyiv, which reported some explosions near the capital and Kharkiv’s regional governor reported 10 explosions with electricity supplies affected in some areas. Ukraine’s air force reported that Russia had fired a total of 35 S-300 missiles, which are unable to be successfully destroyed in flight by Ukrainian air defenses. Reuters says it was unable to independently verify the battlefield reports. This comes as Ukraine’s governor of the Donetsk region, Pavlo Krylenko, said on Ukrainian TV that he believes the long awaited Russian offensive has begun. Reuters CNN
Russian Cruise Missiles Cross Moldovan and Romanian Airspace. Media reports say that Ukrainian and Moldovan officials confirmed that two Russian cruise missiles crossed through Moldovan airspace on Friday. Officials in Moldova’s capital of Chisinau reportedly summoned Russia’s ambassador over the incident. Ukraine's top general, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi also confirmed the incident and said that two Russian Kaliber missiles had crossed into Moldovan and Romanian airspace before entering Ukraine. CNN Deutsche Welle
SpaceX Limits Ukraine’s Ability to Use Starlink for Combat Operations. SpaceX says it has taken steps to limit Ukraine’s ability to use its Starlink internet service to conduct combat operations. The comments, from the company’s President Gwynne Shotwell came at an event in Washington DC where she added that Starlink was never designed for what she described as “offensive purposes”. The move drew sharp criticism from Ukrainian officials with presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak tweeting that the company should pick a side and either join Ukraine and the “right to freedom” or join Russia which he said was intent on killing and seizing territory. A Cipher Brief twitter poll asked if readers supported SpaceX’s decision, with almost 93% of respondents saying no. BBC The Cipher Brief
Investigators Find Evidence Suggesting Putin Approved Missile Supplies that Were Used in Downing of Flight MH17 in 2014. International investigators say there is evidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin approved military aid to Russian-backed separatists, including missiles that were used to shoot down Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 in 2014. Investigators say they did not find evidence however that Putin personally ordered the attack on the flight, which a previous Dutch court ruling convicted in absentia two Russians and a Ukrainian for the act. Investigators say that they have now exhausted all leads in the case and are unable to continue with any additional criminal proceedings. Moscow has consistently denied any involvement in the downing of the plane and dismissed the Dutch court ruling as politically motivated. BBC
Poland Closes Border Crossing with Belarus Citing Increased Tensions. Poland has announced a decision to close a border crossing with Belarus, a move that Minsk criticized as catastrophic. The two countries, which share a 250-mile border have seen relations strained amid the Ukraine war. Minsk says that the decision could lead to a total “collapse” on both sides of the border and accused Warsaw of attempting to escalate the situation along the border. Poland’s Prime Minister cited his countries increasing tensions with Belarus, a key Russian ally and says that additional border crossings may also be closed. Thousands of people of Polish origin reportedly live in Belarus, given that Belarus used to be Polish territory prior to the end of WWII. Reuters Politico
Russia Announces 500,000 bpd Oil Production Cut in March. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak says that Moscow will cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day (BPD) in March in response to the western price cap on Russian oil. The Kremlin says it held consultations with some OPEC members on Friday to discuss the move, and Reuters cites two OPEC officials as saying there are no planned actions on the part of OPEC over the Russian announcement. The price of Brent Sea Crude rose 2.5% on the news reaching $86.6 per barrel. Reuters
Rescue Operations Enter Fifth Day in Turkey and Syria. Media reports describe the situation in parts of Turkey and Syria as ‘catastrophic’ as the death toll from the earthquake has exceeded 21,000 people. The BBC says that rescue operations are continuing and that the first shipments of international aid have started to arrive. Rescue operations are now in their fifth day with hopes of finding new survivors beginning to diminish. The number of collapsed buildings combined with winter weather and challenging terrain have presented obstacles to rescue and recovery operations. Turkish President Recip Tayyip Erdogan has called the earthquake “the disaster of the century”. The numbers of people reported as injured and left homeless are in the tens of thousands according to reports. BBC Al Jazeera
Asia
China says it rejected an offer by the U.S. for Defense Minister Talks amid Balloon saga. The South China Morning Post reports cites Chinese Defense Ministry Spokesman Tan Kefei saying that the US offered a phone call between both countries defense ministers to talk about the shooting down of a Chinese balloon over U.S. territory and that China decided that the proposed call, “did not create a proper atmosphere for dialogue and exchanges between the two militaries”. South China Morning Post
Taiwan weapons firm test-fires missile that may be able to reach mainland China. The South China Morning Post reports that a Taiwan weapons company has test-fired a missile that a source they describe as a military analyst says is likely a Hsiung Sheng missile and could be capable of reaching parts of Mainland China. The paper reports that the government-funded National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology test-fired the missile from a base in Jiupeng, citing a notice issued by Taiwan’s Fisheries Agency. South China Morning Post
Pakistan Hosts 50 Nations for Naval Exercises. Pakistan’s navy is hosting 50 nations for four-day joint exercises starting Friday. The exercises occur regularly every two years and involve ships, aircraft and special operations forces. The Commander of the Pakistan Fleet, Vice Admiral Ovais Ahmed Bilgrami said the drills will focus on piracy, terrorism, anti narcotics trafficking and climate change. Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
Russian Foreign Minister Defends Wagner Group Operations in Sudan. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov concluded a two-day visit to Sudan with a press conference where he defended Wagner Group’s operations in the country and said he was optimistic about Moscow’s chances to build a navy base in the country. Lavrov, speaking to reporters said that Wagner group was helping to defeat terrorism and that they were in the country as part of an agreement with Khartoum. Lavrov also expressed optimism that a deal to allow Moscow to build a Red Sea port and Navy base would be approved by Sudan’s legislature. Envoy’s from the US, UK and the European Union were reportedly also in Khartoum at the time of Lavrov’s visit. Lavrov said that delegations from those western countries were attempting to disrupt relations between Russian and African countries. Middle East Eye
Cyber & Tech
U.S., UK announce joint sanctions against Russian ransomware hackers. Seven Russian citizens linked to the hacking group Trickbot were named in a joint action by the U.S. and Britain for cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, including hospitals in both countries. Politico reports that last year, Trickbot was identified as one of the hacking groups behind cyberattacks aimed at the Ukrainian government as well as the U.S. government and American companies.Politico
White House Considers Order to Restrict U.S. Investments in China for Advanced Tech. The White House is reportedly pondering options to impose further restrictions on U.S. investment in Chinese advanced technology. The New York Times cites officials familiar with the discussions as saying that the new restrictions would prohibit investment sectors such as quantum computing, advanced semiconductors and AI technologies that could be used for military or intelligence purposes.NY Times
Australian Defense Department to Remove Chinese-Made Cameras. Surveillance cameras made by Chinese companies with links to the Communist Party (CCP) will be removed from all Australian Defense Department buildings. The Associated Press reports that about 913 cameras, electronic entry systems and video recorders manufactured by Chinese companies are currently installed in Australian government and agency offices. Australia’s move follows similar actions by the United States and Britain.Associated Press
US Treasury Dept says Financial Sector Reliance on Limited Number of Cloud Services Poses Risks. A Treasury Department report points out that the dependence on many financial institutions on a small number of cloud computing providers could have “broad consequences” in the event of a large-scale disruption. The Wall Street Journal reports that a Treasury-led government group will examine cloud-computing services in the financial sector, possibly leading to new steps to better manage risks in the event of a broad system failure or data breach.Wall Street Journal
Chinese Drone Wing Design Advances “Stealthiness” of Unmanned Aircraft. Chinese researchers are testing a new wing design for unmanned aircraft they say can improve its radar-evading characteristics, according to reporting by The South China Morning Post. The paper reports that by operating without elevators or flaps, the test aircraft reduces the amount of radar reflecting surface areas, and lessens radar signatures. The drone maneuvers by directing a powerful, calibrated air stream across the its wings, allowing it to pitch or bank.South China Morning Post
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