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10:30 AM ET, Tuesday, October 10, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

THE TOP STORIES

Israel Says Gaza Border Secured after Another Night of Air Strikes.  Israel said today it has reclaimed control of its border with Gaza. Israeli forces conducted the heaviest air strikes on Gaza in Israel’s 75-year history despite a threat by Hamas to execute an Israeli captive for every home hit without warning.  Israeli news media said the death toll from Hamas attacks has reached 900. Gaza officials say over 700 Palestinians have been killed in the Israeli air strikes. The U.N. said 180,000 Gazans have been displaced from the attacks. Meanwhile, Israeli media reported Israel has expanded its mobilization of reservists to 360,000. It is not yet known whether Israel will follow up with a ground assault, which would be the first in Gaza in nine years. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an address to the nation yesterday that Israel has “only started striking Hamas” and that what it will do in the coming days “will reverberate with them for generations.”  Reuters Associated Press

Analysis: “Low-Tech” Communications, Israeli Overconfidence Seen as Key Factors In Hamas Surprise Attack.  A clearer picture of how Hamas was able to launch such a large-scale surprise attack on Israel is beginning to emerge. According to current and former intelligence officials in the U.S., Israel and elsewhere, Hamas avoided detection in one of the most heavily surveilled areas of the world by going “low tech.”  Former Deputy Director for National Intelligence Beth Sanner said she believes planners “went very old school,” avoiding discussing plans electronically.  A source familiar with Israeli military intelligence said it also is likely that Israel lacks high-quality human resources inside the Hamas leadership.  Former U.S. National Counterterrorism Center Group Chief Andrew Borene added that it is also possible that Hamas planners made use of encryption technology to communicate.  Other factors cited include Hamas’ success at hiding weapons stockpiles underground and the increasing sophistication of its own intelligence apparatus.  Meanwhile, the Israeli government faces accusations that it has become overconfident and too distracted by domestic issues.  The Times of Israel reported that Egyptian intelligence had been warning Israel that Hamas was planning “something big,” but that Israeli officials were focused instead on the West Bank. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denied the report.  Bloomberg

Chinese Coast Guard Says It Chased Off Philippine Naval Vessel Near Disputed Scarborough Shoal.  China’s coast guard said on Tuesday it chased off a Philippine naval gunboat near the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea after the Philippine vessel failed to heed verbal warnings.  The Chinese coast guard said the ship violated Chinese sovereignty. Philippines Armed Forces Chief of Staff Romeo Brawner denied that China drove the ship away.  Both sides claim sovereignty over the waters in the area and have clashed in recent weeks.  South China Morning Post

China, Saudi Arabia Begin Joint Maritime Counterterrorism Exercise.  China and Saudi Arabia have begun a joint naval exercise focused on “maritime terrorism and piracy,” the Chinese military’s official newspaper PLA Daily reports.  The opening ceremony for the Blue Sword-2023 training operation, which includes about 100 personnel from the two militaries, was held at a naval station in Zhanjiang in Guangdong province.  The two countries held their first joint exercise, Blue Sword-2019, at Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Jeddah.  South China Morning Post

IMF Cuts China Economic Growth Projections.  The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday downgraded growth projections for China’s economy in 2023 and 2024.  The outlook was changed to project Chinese economic growth 5% this year and 4.2% in 2024.  The IMF cited China’s real estate crisis and weakened consumer and business confidence as key areas of concern.  Nikkei Asia Reuters 

Finland-Estonia Pipeline and Telecommunications Cable Damaged in Potential Deliberate Act.  The Finnish government said on Tuesday that a subsea gas pipeline and telecommunications cable in the Baltic Sea connecting Finland and Estonia was damaged from potential “outside activity.”  The Balticconnector gas pipeline was shut on Sunday over a reported leak from a hole in the pipeline.  Finnish gas operator Gasgrid said it may take several months to repair.  NATO, Finland and Estonia are investigating the cause of the leak.  The pipeline was opened in December 2019 to help integrate gas markets in the region to offer flexibility in supplies for Finland and Baltic states.  Reuters

Russia Reports Coolant Leak on ISS.  Russia’s Roscosmos space agency said one of its modules on the International Space Station sprang a coolant leak.  The agency said the leak occurred on an external, backup radiator that was delivered to the station on a space shuttle mission in 2010.  NASA says the primary radiator is functioning normally and that the ISS crew is not in danger.  It was not immediately clear what caused the leak.  CNN

Putin Blames Israel-Hamas Conflict on Failure of U.S.  Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed the violence between Israel and Hamas on the “failure of the U.S. policy in the Middle East.”  In a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, Putin said the U.S. sought to “monopolize” the Middle East peace process, failed to seek solutions acceptable to all parties, and neglected the interests of Palestine.  He did not mention Russia’s own role in the Middle East peace process and presence in the region, such as its military support of Syria.  Russia has been angling to appear as an even-handed mediator that has strong relations with both Israel and Palestinians, including Hamas.  Reuters

Ukrainian Troops See ‘Partial Success’ Near Andriivka.  A spokesperson for Ukraine’s eastern forces reported that they were making progress in their counteroffensive, seeing a “partial success” close to Andriivka, which they reclaimed in September along with Klishhiivka.  The spokesperson added that troops were “making headway” in Bakhmut, adding that it is a slow process since “we are talking about hundreds of meters at a time that we are liberating … strengthening our positions.” The spokesperson also said that it is “too early to talk about achieving concrete goals.” Meanwhile, Ukrainian prosecutors in the region of Donetsk said one person was killed after Russian forces shelled eastern parts of the city of Donetsk. Avdiivka was also targeted. Al Jazeera

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Threat Analysts See Killnet Leading Pro-Russian Hacktivist Campaign Against Israel.  The pro-Russian hacktivist group, Killnet, is leading the way for cyberattacks on Israeli targets, unleashing a string of subgroups to join the campaign.  According to Nataliiia Zdrok, a threat intelligence analyst with Binary Defense, the Legion – Cyber Special Forces RF (Russian Federation) and affiliates like Anonymous Sudan are participating in denial-of-service attacks and anti-Israel posts on government and private sector sites.  Zdrok noted that “KillNet accused the Israeli government not only of the ongoing conflict,” but also claimed that Israel cooperates with NATO members.  Karim Hijazi, CEO of Vigilocity, said that Killnet’s disruption of an Israeli government website “did not have a material impact, it did send a message to other hacktivist groups to join the fight.”  Hijazi believes that Killnet’s leadership probably led Libyan Ghosts and Anonymous Sudan to join the online fray.  Cybernews Bloomberg

PLA Newspaper Describes Chinese Navy Advances in Foreign Data Collection.  The People’s Liberation Army newspaper published a lengthy article Monday on steps being taken by the Chinese navy to modernize older ships so that they can participate in data collection on foreign vessels.  The article describes how data analysts aboard the Yancheng guided-missile frigate have been collaborating with radar operators to gather foreign sonar data.  Since the addition of a sonar system to the Yancheng, it can participate in anti-submarine operations and can use anti-missile data previously collected to simulate a multi-drone attack.  The PLA newspaper added that the Nanchang, China’s most advanced destroyer, since 2020 has collected substantial amounts of reference data from other warships in joint operations. Li Jie, a naval analyst based in Beijing, said “the PLA has lagged behind [the U.S.] in terms of real combat training.  The U.S. has many opportunities to organize joint naval exercises with its allies and partners in the region, which will also help enrich the military’s big data in hydrology that is very useful in a sea battle.”  South China Morning Post

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

Driver of Car that Plowed Through Chinese Consulate in San Francisco Killed by Police.  Police fatally shot the driver of a car that crashed into the Chinese consulate in San Francisco on Monday, plowing into the lobby of the consulate’s visa office.  Police Sgt. Kathryn Winters said the suspected driver, who has not yet been identified, died at the hospital, and added that the investigation into the incident is “open and active.” Police are reportedly collaborating with investigators from the U.S. State Department, though the department did not comment on the matter.  The Chinese Consulate general condemned the “violent attack” and called on the U.S. to swiftly investigate the incident and ensure the safety of Chinese diplomatic staff elsewhere in the U.S.  Reuters Associated Press

U.S. Aircraft Carrier Headed to South Korea.  The South Korean defense ministry said Tuesday that the U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan is due to arrive at the port of Busan on Thursday, where it will remain until October 16. The Ronald Reagan docked in South Korea last year for the first time in around four years, joining other military vessels in a show of strength aimed at North Korea. The South Korean navy added that the South Korean and American navies conducted joint maritime exercises with Japanese forces near Jeju Island on Monday and Tuesday.  The navy said that the trilateral drills are part of efforts to deter and retaliate against the North’s "advancing nuclear and missile threats.” Reuters

Taiwanese President Says Nation Seeks Peaceful Coexistence with China.  Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen said during a National Day speech on Tuesday that the self-governing island seeks "peaceful coexistence" with China amid growing political and military pressure. She said that Taipei aims for "free, unrestricted, and unburdened interactions" between Taiwan and China, though she maintained that it is her responsibility to protect the island’s sovereignty.  In response to her remarks, the Chinese foreign ministry referred to the officials of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) as the "greatest threat" to peace in the Taiwan Strait because they seek “independence and provocation.”  A ministry spokesperson added that the DPP “cannot change the fact that Taiwan is a part of China.” Reuters

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis and opinion in The Cipher Brief