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10:00 AM ET, Thursday, September 14, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

The Americas

U.S.-Saudi Arabia Military Deals Stymied by Riyadh’s Links With China, Russia.  Saudi Arabia is reportedly facing issues developing its military industry with U.S. support due to Riyadh’s ties with China and Russia.  Officials say that Saudi Arabia’s business with Russia and China undermine U.S. efforts to financially pressure Beijing and Moscow, potentially putting Western companies at risk of sanctions, and poses national security risks, especially in deals involving the transfer of sensitive U.S. military technology.  In an example of this challenge, a potential multibillion-dollar deal between Raytheon Technologies (RTX) and Saudi weapons firm Scopa Defense to develop air defense systems was abruptly called off earlier this year after RTX flagged the Saudi company’s ties to sanctioned Chinese and Russian entities.  Scopa Defense maintains that its transactions with Chinese firms are limited to deals for raw materials like copper and rubber and that it does not do business with Russian companies or sanctioned entities in general.  Despite this reassurance, reports of contact between the company and sanctioned Chinese, Russian and Belarusian entities were enough to drive off RTX and other Western partners.  Wall Street Journal

Maduro Vows to Send Venezuelan to Moon on Chinese Spacecraft.  Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro vowed on Wednesday to send “the first Venezuelan man or woman to the moon” in a Chinese spacecraft.  Maduro said “Venezuelan youth” will train to be astronauts in “Chinese schools” as part of a “new era” of collaboration between Beijing and Caracas.  His comments came as he met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing to sign several bilateral cooperation agreements in oil, trade, finance, mining, space exploration and other areas.  China said that the deals mark an upgrade in its ties with Venezuela to an “all-weather strategic partnership.”  Venezuela is China’s biggest Latin American borrower with $60 billion in state loans.  Washington Post

Brazil Formally Requests U.S. Help in Investigations of Bolsonaro.  Brazil has formally requested U.S. law enforcement assistance into investigations of former President Jair Bolsonaro, according to Brazilian Federal Police sources.  The sources say Brazil is requesting help to corroborate statements from Bolsonaro’s former aide Mauro Cid about his role in criminal probes involving Bolsonaro, including falsification of vaccine records and the sale of gifts from foreign governments.  Bolsonaro, who could potentially face jail time over the criminal probes, denies any wrongdoing.  Lawyers for Bolsonaro and Cid did not immediately comment on the request for U.S. help.  Reuters

Western Europe

Russian Pilot Tried to Shoot Down British RAF Plane in 2022.  The BBC reports that a Russian pilot tried to shoot down an RAF surveillance plane over the Black Sea last September after believing he had permission to fire.  In the incident, the RAF plane encountered two Russian Su-27 fighter jets.  The pilot of one jet reportedly fired two missiles.  Russia said at the time the launches were due to a “technical malfunction,” which the British Ministry of Defense publicly accepted.  Western defense sources now say intercepted Russian communications show the pilot thought he was given permission to target the British plane after receiving an ambiguous command from a Russian ground station controller.  The second pilot did not believe the order to fire was given and remonstrated and swore at his fellow pilot when he fired the first missile.  Sources said the loose language leading to the confusion shows a high level of unprofessionalism.  They also said the first missile fired in the incident missed its target, rather than malfunctioned.  Despite Britain’s initial acceptance of the Russian explanation, the U.S. reportedly believed the incident was “far more serious” and “could have amounted to an act of war.”  The British defense ministry told the BBC it was secretive about the incident to not publicize its intelligence gathering activities and avoid escalation.  BBC Associated Press

Central and Eastern Europe

Ukraine Reports Russian Drone, Shelling Attacks.  Ukraine on Thursday said it shot down 17 out of 22 Russian drones across its territory and that Russian shelling hit southern Ukraine.  Ukraine’s air force said the drones were intercepted in several regions in Ukraine’s north and south.  The governor of Dnipropetrovsk, Serhiy Lysak, said that three drones damaged several buildings in the region, and another part of the region was struck overnight by artillery and rockets.  Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s office said Russian shelling in the village of Novodmytrivka in the Kherson region killed a child and injured four other people.  Reuters France 24

Ukraine Reportedly Destroys Air Defense System in Crimea.  Ukraine reportedly launched another strike on Russian-occupied Crimea that destroyed Russian air defense systems.  A Ukrainian intelligence source said the attack, which was a joint operation of the Security Service of Ukraine and navy, destroyed a “Triumf” air defense system near the town of Yevpatoriya.  The source added that drones first “blinded” the air defense system by targeting its radar and antenna and then two Ukrainian-made Neptune cruise missiles attacked the system’s launchers.  Russia’s defense ministry claimed its air defenses shot down 11 drones over Crimea and did not mention any damage from the attack.  Reuters could not verify the accounts.  Reuters RFE/RL

Putin Accepts Kim’s Invite to North Korea.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has accepted Kim Jong Un’s invitation to visit North Korea.  Kim offered the invitation after the two leaders met in eastern Russia, according to North Korean state media.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Putin “gratefully” accepted the invite and added that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will visit Pyongyang in October for more talks.  Kim and Putin had met at the Vostochny Cosmodrome and toured the space launch facility on Wednesday.  Putin said Kim is due on Thursday to visit military and civilian aviation facilities in the city of Komsomolsk-on-Amur and inspect Russia’s Pacific fleet in Vladivostok.  Kim’s visit comes amid warnings from the U.S. that the two countries are advancing towards an arms deal in which Pyongyang will send weapons possibly in exchange for Russian military technology.  South Korea expressed “deep concern and regret” that Kim’s visit has so far focused on expanding military cooperation.  Washington has warned that it “won’t hesitate” to impose more sanctions on Russia and North Korea if they agree to new arms deals.  Associated Press Al Jazeera Reuters

Asia and Oceania

Top Admiral Says US Considering Seeking Access to More Bases in Philippines.  Admiral John Aquilino, the head of the US Indo-Pacific command, said Thursday that Washington may aim to access more military bases in the Philippines under a bilateral defense deal.  This year, Manila has extended the number of bases accessible to the American military from five to nine, an act that has strained relations with China.  Aquilino said that he and the Philippines' military chief, Lieutenant General Romeo Brawner, had spoken about further increasing the number of bases U.S. soldiers could access under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), saying that the two have made recommendations for additional sites.  He also emphasized that the Philippines had invited the U.S. to operate in the country.  Brawner said that the objective of the EDCA was not related to security threats but more focused on training drills and disaster and humanitarian and response, stressing that the operations have “nothing to do with the other countries in the Indo- Pacific region,” apparently referencing anger from China about U.S.-Philippine military cooperation under the deal.  Aquilino also noted that Washington and Manila seek to complete a pact on bolstering their intelligence sharing.  Reuters

Taiwan Detects 40 Chinese Warplanes in Air Defense Zone as China Conducts new Western Pacific Military Drills.  The Taiwanese defense ministry reported Thursday that in the past 24 hours it had detected 40 Chinese air force aircraft entering the island’s air defense zone.  The ministry said most of the Chinese warplanes flew south of Taiwan through the Bashi Channel and that at least four of the Chinese aircraft crossed the unofficial median line of the Taiwan Strait northwest of the island.  The flights come as China appears to be staging military drills in the western Pacific led by the Shandong aircraft carrier.  At least 20 other Chinese naval vessels have been seen in the area since Tuesday, and some Chinese warplanes detected around Taiwan have reportedly joined the exercises.  Analysts said the exercises aim to test China’s ability to maintain coordinated air and naval operations far from its shores and could also potentially be a simulation of a blockade of Taiwan.   Reuters New York Times

Taiwan Condemns Elon Musk Over Latest China Remarks.  Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu on Wednesday strongly criticized Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s comments that Taipei is “an integral part of China.”  Speaking at a summit in Los Angeles, Musk said that Beijing’s “policy has been to reunite Taiwan with China'' and said that the island “is analogous to Hawaii” to China.  Wu countered that Taiwan is not part of China and “not for sale.”  Wu added that Musk should ask China to "open X to its people,” as Beijing has banned X, formerly known as Twitter, and other major Western social media.  Wu then said that “perhaps he [Musk] banning it is a good policy, like turning off Starlink to thwart Ukraine's counter strike against Russia,” referencing Musk’s refusal of a Ukrainian request to activate Starlink to help an attack on Russia’s fleet in the occupied Crimean port of Sevastopol last year.  Musk, whose company Tesla has a massive factory in Shanghai, similarly provoked Taiwan last October when he suggested that the strain between Taipei and Beijing could be settled by giving up some control of Taiwan to China.  Reuters

Australia Further Restricts Training 'Certain Foreign Militaries' Over Security Risks.  Australia proposed legislation preventing former defense staff from training "certain foreign militaries” to curb national security risks.  Defense Minister Richard Marles introduced the measure on Thursday, saying that the law will aim to block “individuals with knowledge of sensitive defense information from training or working” for governments that potentially pose a national security risk.  The measure will institute a penalty of 20 years in prison for Australians who provide military training to foreign government entities, including hybrid civilian and military organizations, and state-owned companies without authorization from the defense minister.  This clampdown came after reports that former military pilots residing in Australia were employed by a South African flight school that instructs Chinese pilots, which the U.S. alleges are Chinese military pilots.  Australian officials said that the only states exempt from the law are Australia's "Five Eyes" intelligence partners of Britain, the U.S., New Zealand and Canada.  Training with other countries will only be approved if authorized by the defense minister or if it relates to humanitarian relief or UN duties.  Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa

Syria Reports Israeli Air Strikes on Mediterranean Coast, Hama Region.  Syrian state media reported on Wednesday that Israeli air strikes on the Mediterranean port city of Tartous killed two Syrian soldiers and wounded six others on Wednesday.  The Syrian army added later that Israeli missiles hit the outskirts of Hama, causing material damage.  Israeli officials did not comment on the reported attacks.  Israel has launched hundreds of missiles against alleged Iranian targets in Syria, but it has mostly avoided Syria’s Mediterranean coast where Russian military assets are concentrated.  The Russian navy’s only Mediterranean base is in Tartous.  Reuters

Israeli Finance Minister’s Control Over West Bank Expands.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has quietly strengthened control over the occupied West Bank mainly by elevating Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.  Smotrich has assumed new powers over the occupied territory, approving thousands of new settler homes, legalizing previously unauthorized outposts, and further complicating Palestinains’ ability to build homes and move around.  Smotrich has led the settler movement and is positioned as finance minister to funnel funds to West Bank infrastructure projects.  Observers say the move makes Smotrich the first Israeli government minister to oversee civilian life in the West Bank, suggesting that Israel’s occupation is not temporary but permanent.  Smotrich has not commented on the matter.  Experts say Smotrich’s positions have emboldened settlers and made it increasingly difficult for Palestinians in the West Bank.  Some security officials also say they are worried that Smotrich’s rapid expansion of settlements is destabilizing the territory.  Associated Press

Sub Saharan Africa

U.S. Resumes Counterterrorism Drone Operations in Niger.  General James Hecker, the top U.S. Air Force commander for Europe and Africa, said Wednesday that the U.S. has resumed surveillance operations involving drones and manned aircraft for its Niger counterterrorism mission.  The U.S. suspended counterterrorism operations in Niger after the military coup in July.  Diplomatic efforts with the junta have now allowed the U.S. to restart the flights, though there are fewer than before the coup.  The U.S. has spent around $500 million to bolster Niger’s military, including with a $110 million drone base in the city of Agadez, and stationed around 1,100 American troops in Niger as part of efforts to counter Islamist militants in the region.  Training of Niger’s forces is still suspended, and the Pentagon said earlier this month that some U.S. troops stationed near the capital of Niamey have been moved to the Agadez base as a precaution.  Hecker said the U.S. still feels its troops in Niger are safe and can easily evacuate if needed, though he noted that the U.S. has been talking to countries in the region in case it needs to move drone operations elsewhere.  Wall Street Journal Al Jazeera 

Niger Coup Leaders Release Detained French Official.  The French Foreign Ministry said Thursday that Niger on Wednesday released French official Stephane Jullien after detaining her for five days. The ministry did not say why Jullien, a counselor for French citizens abroad, was arrested, or give details about his release.  France had called for his release after his arrest.  Niger has demanded that France’s ambassador leave the country.  Paris says the country’s military leaders do not have the authority to make such an order.  Associated Press ABC News

Cyber and Tech

China Claims NSA Operative Behind Chinese University Cyberattack.  China’s National Computer Virus Emergency Response Center and Chinese antivirus company 360 Total Security claim to have identified U.S. National Security Agency operatives linked to a recent cyberattack on Northwestern Polytechnical University.  Chinese state media said the investigation identified the operatives after extracting “multiple samples” of the “Second Date” spyware at the university’s systems.  Engineers at the center said the spyware — which allows attackers to take control of target network devices and use them as a “forward base” for future attacks — was developed by the NSA’s Office of Tailored Access Operations (TAO), a cyberwarfare intelligence-gathering unit now renamed Computer Network Operations.  The engineers added that “thousands of network devices” in China remain infected by the spyware and claimed that global tracing showed NSA springboard servers in other countries.  China’s state security ministry said the country has been “a major victim of high-level persistent threats online” from dozens of intelligence agencies it did not specify, adding that government agencies, companies, infrastructure and academic institutions are all under threat.  The U.S. has likewise accused China of stepping up cyberattacks against American targets, linking Chinese hackers to the recent breaches of top U.S. officials’ email accounts, cyber-espionage campaigns against U.S. critical infrastructure, and financially motivated data breaches that stole U.S. Covid-19 relief funds.  South China Morning Post

U.S.-Canada Water Commission Hit by Cyberattack.  The International Joint Commission (IJC), which is tasked with managing lakes and rivers along the U.S.-Canadian border, announced Wednesday that it was hit by a cyberattack.  ICJ said it is taking measures to resolve the issue but did not say if it has contacted law enforcement or if the organization was facing operational issues from the attack.  The NoEscape ransomware group on Monday claimed it attacked the organization and stole 80 GB of data including contracts, geological files, and conflict of interest forms.  The U.S. has focused attention on cybersecurity regulations for water systems over the past year.  State lawmakers and federal regulators are in court over a rule from the Environmental Protection Agency that adds cybersecurity to annual audits of public water systems.  CISA announced this week that it will provide free vulnerability scanning services to drinking water and wastewater systems.  The Record

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