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10:00 AM ET, Friday, October 6, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

THE TOP STORIES:

White House Planning for Biden-Xi Meeting.  The White House is reportedly planning for a face-to-face meeting between President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco in November.  One administration official said “it’s pretty firm” that there will be a meeting and that planning has begun, while a second senior administration official said Biden is looking forward to the meeting, but that “nothing has been confirmed yet.”    Officials added that plans will be clarified when Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits Washington in the coming weeks.  They also said that Hong Kong’s top government official, John Lee, who was sanctioned in 2020 along with other Chinese involved in the implementation of China’s national security law, will be barred from the meeting.  The Chinese Embassy in Washington did not immediately comment on the report.  Biden and Xi last met in-person at the Group of 20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, last November.  China has been non-committal about the potential meeting.  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in September that Xi’s attendance at the summit will be announced “formally in due course.”  China’s Ministry of State Security, its main spy agency, also indicated last month that a meeting would depend on if the U.S. “shows enough sincerity.”  Ties between Washington and Beijing frayed after the Chinese spy balloon incident in February, but the Biden administration has sent top officials to Beijing in recent months in a bid to re-engage.  High-level military communication remains frozen.  Bloomberg Washington Post

Pentagon’s No. 2 Says China’s Aggression Pushing Countries to U.S.  Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said in an interview on Thursday that China’s increasing assertiveness in Asia is leading other countries to form new partnerships with the U.S.  Rejecting China’s claim that the U.S. effort to strengthen ties with other countries in the region is destabilizing, Hicks said the U.S. effort “is helpful to deterrence, but also to creating stability in the region.” She cited in particular a new base-sharing agreement with the Philippines, increased defense cooperation with Japan and South Korea, and the AUKUS alliance with Australia and the U.K.  Hicks added that she wants to speed up shipments of weapons to Taiwan and that the Pentagon is working with defense contractors to fix supply chain problems.  Hicks also countered an argument made by some Republicans that American assistance to Ukraine’s defense comes at Taiwan’s expense. She said the increased demand for weapons in Ukraine “is helping to energize the U.S. industrial base in ways that will help us provision better for Taiwan” and other countries. Hicks went on to say that the possibility of a government shutdown and the current political dysfunction in Washington, which includes Congress’s leadership crisis and its hold-up of military promotions, are threatening U.S. military readiness and ability to provide support for Ukraine. Emphasizing her point, she said Moscow and Beijing “aren’t slowing down to let us get our house in order.”  Bloomberg Bloomberg

Pentagon Developing AI Tools to Support Indo-Pacific and Other Commands.  Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said on Thursday that the Pentagon has accelerated development of artificial intelligence (AI) tools for Admiral John Aquilino, commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, to counter threats from China.  She said the Pentagon is developing several AI platforms aimed at better connecting commanders and their forces and increasing the amount of data that can be analyzed at one time. Hicks said the war in Ukraine has shown the importance of sharing data with the military in near real-time.  She also said Central Command has made advances in AI that “will absolutely redound” to the benefit of other combat commands. According to Hicks, the Defense Department has 800 AI projects underway.  Bloomberg

Taiwanese Presidential Frontrunner Says Taiwan is Already Sovereign, Independent.  Taiwanese Vice President William Lai, the frontrunner to be Taiwan’s next president after elections in January, said in an interview with Japanese media today that Taiwan elects its own leaders and therefore already is “sovereign and independent.”  He added that the election is “absolutely not” a choice between war and peace, but is “a choice between democracy and dictatorship.”  Lai has recently said he will maintain the status quo if elected president, though he has previously made pro-independence comments, which have been criticized by Beijing.  Taiwan’s main opposition party, the Kuomintang, which favors close ties with China, has criticized Lai for touting Taiwanese independence and provoking mainland China.  China’s Taiwan Affairs Office did not immediately comment on the matter.  Reuters

U.S. Turning to Private Sector to Develop Critical Minerals.  The U.S. plans to announce a network of private companies to invest in 15 critical-minerals projects across five continents to create securer supply chains, Under Secretary of State Jose Fernandez told reporters in London on Thursday.  The consortium, which includes mining and technology companies, will provide information and investment for the Minerals Security Partnership, which is made up of 14 countries including the U.S., U.K., European Union and Japan.  Representatives of the partnership countries are scheduled to meet in London on October 10 to discuss financing of critical minerals projects and environmental concerns. The delegates reportedly will focus on minerals used in electric car batteries.  Bloomberg

THE UKRAINE UPDATE:

Ukraine Reports Success in the East, Intense Fighting Further North.  Ukraine said on Thursday that Ukrainian forces have made progress in their counteroffensive in eastern Ukraine but are under pressure further north.  A spokesperson for Ukrainian forces in the east said the Lyman-Kupiansk sector is “the most difficult” and has been subject to increasingly intense Russian assaults.  The spokesperson added that Ukrainian forces are, however, “repulsing enemy attacks and inflicting damage” on Russian forces.  Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are fighting to regain ground near the battered city of Bakhmut. The Ukrainian military said it has “achieved success” south of Andrivka, a village south of Bakhmut recaptured by Ukrainian forces last month. The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces also reported Russian forces tried unsuccessfully to regain lost positions further south and that Ukrainian troops are pressing their southward advance in the Zaporizhzhia region.  Reuters

Russian Missile Strike Hits Kharkiv, Drone Attack Hits Odesa.  A Russian missile attack hit residential buildings in Kharkiv city on Friday, killing two people.  Regional officials said at least 28 other people were injured in the strike and that two Iskander ballistic missiles were used in the attack.  The attack came a day after Ukraine said a Russian missile strike on the village of Hroza in the Kharkiv region killed 52 people.  Moscow denied claims it was behind that attack, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterating on Friday that Russian forces don’t target civilians.  His comments contrast Ukrainian officials reporting that only civilians were killed in Hroza and that there were no military targets in the village.  Separately, Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces reported a “massive” Russian drone attack that damaged border and port infrastructure on the Danube River in Odesa region.  The attack caused a large fire but there were no reported casualties.  Ukraine’s Air Force Command said Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 25 of 33 drones launched across Ukraine by Russia overnight.  Al Jazeera CNN CNN Reuters

Russia Says Ukraine Drone Attack Over Belgorod Thwarted.  The Russian Defense Ministry said Russian air defenses foiled a Ukrainian drone attack over the Belgorod region on Thursday.  The ministry said five Ukrainian drones were destroyed, while Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov claimed six drones were intercepted.  Belgorod has reported almost daily Ukrainian drone attacks in recent months as the Ukraine war spills over into Russia.  CNN

Biden Administration Considering Using U.S. State Department Grants for Ukraine Aid.  The Biden administration is reportedly weighing the idea of using a U.S. State Department grant program to transfer additional military assistance to Ukraine. The State Department has the ability to offer aid to foreign states for the purchase of American defense equipment and military training under the Foreign Military Sales program by offering Foreign Military Financing. It is a grant or loan program which helps allies bolster their purchasing power for security materials. U.S. officials told Politico that the program cannot fulfill all Ukraine aid needs and that Congress will still have to permit additional funding for Kyiv.  A senior Pentagon spokesperson reported that no decision has yet been made on steps to secure further support for Ukraine. The Foreign Military Financing program has been used before, including to provide military assistance to Taiwan in August. Reuters Politico

Sweden Pledges More Ukraine Military Aid, Considers Sending Fighter Jets.  Sweden is sending a new military aid package worth 2.2 billion crowns ($199 million) to Ukraine.  Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson said the package will consist mostly of artillery ammunition and include artillery shells, spare parts, infantry equipment and communication equipment.  He also said Sweden is considering sending Gripen fighter jets to Kyiv, as well as training Ukrainian pilots on the jets.  The Swedish military will report by November 6 on the potential transfer.  He noted that Sweden would need to become a NATO member before it can send jets, for domestic security reasons.  CNN Reuters

Germany Sending Another Patriot Air Defense System to Ukraine.  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that Germany will send another Patriot air defense system to Ukraine.  Speaking after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Spain, Scholz said the system will help bolster Ukrainian air defenses to protect Ukrainian infrastructure and cities in the coming winter.  Germany has previously supplied three Patriot air defense systems to Kyiv.  CNN

Analysis: Ukraine Heads Into Winter With Hobbled Energy System.  Ukraine faces another difficult winter of lengthy power outages as Russian airstrikes have left the country’s energy system more vulnerable than it was a year ago.  Engineers have worked during the warmer months to repair broken equipment, but there has not been enough time or money to complete the work.  Marcus Lippold, an energy team leader with the European Union, said this week “a big effort” has been made to repair what has been destroyed, but that he doubts more resilience has been built into the system. The U.N. estimated in June that Ukraine’s power generation capacity is now roughly half of what it was before Russia began its invasion. During the October to March period last year, the average Ukrainian living away from the front lines spent about 35 days without power, and some officials expect conditions to be worse this winter.  Reuters

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN:

New Controls on Chip Tool Exports to China Under Final Review.  The U.S. is reportedly finalizing a rule limiting exports of American chipmaking equipment to China.  Sources say the update to the rule would add restrictions and shut loopholes in restrictions first revealed in October last year.  On Wednesday, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) posted a regulation titled, "Export controls to Semiconductor Manufacturing Items, Entity List Modifications” on its website. A source with knowledge on the matter verified that the post is referring to the anticipated restrictions on sending Beijing on chip making tools, and former officials said that export control rules are usually not published by the OMB until the Departments of State, Defense, Commerce and Energy have agreed on their content. The government has not yet posted an expected companion rule, which updates curbs on exports of sophisticated chips used in artificial intelligence.  Sources say that Washington plans to publish both rules at the same time. Reuters South China Morning Post

Taiwan Probing Firms Over Business with China's Huawei.  Taiwan’s government is investigating four companies — Topco Scientific, L&K Engineering, United Integrated Services, and Cica-Huntek Chemical Technology Taiwan — which are reportedly conducting business with Huawei.  Taiwan’s Economy Minister Wang Mei-hua said her ministry is probing whether the companies’ activities “matched up” with their initial investment approval and that they could be fined up to $775,300 if they broke any rules.  Bloomberg reported this week that the companies were working with Huawei-linked firms on infrastructure for chip plants.  The companies all denied any wrongdoing.  Wang added that Taipei is considering tighter rules on “key technologies” without elaborating.  The U.S. has barred Huawei from obtaining U.S.-made equipment and technology without approval.  Taiwanese tech companies have operations in China, but Taiwan’s government watches those activities closely and bans the production of its most sensitive technology in China.  Reuters

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD:

China, Vietnam Reportedly Preparing for Xi Visit to Hanoi.  Vietnamese and Chinese officials are reportedly planning for a potential visit by President Xi Jinping to Hanoi at the end of October or in early November.  Sources said work is underway on a joint statement to be used during the visit and that logistical arrangements are being discussed, though they added that the visit has yet to be announced and could still be postponed.  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is also expected to visit Hanoi in mid-October to finalize the joint statement.  The Vietnamese and Chinese foreign ministries did not comment on the matter.  Vietnam upgraded ties with the U.S. in September, elevating Washington to the same tier as Beijing.  Reuters

Afghan Foreign Minister Promises To Combat Terrorist Threat To China.  Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi sought to reassure China on Thursday that his country is working to combat terrorism and that the Taliban will not tolerate terrorist activities aimed at China.  The Afghan foreign ministry said Muttaqi told Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during a meeting in Tibet that Afghanistan “has done a lot of work” to fight terrorism and that “we take security threats against China like a challenge to our own.” China said Wang expressed hope that the Afghan government will “completely eliminate the terrorist forces” of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, based in Afghanistan. The meeting between the two foreign ministers took place on the sidelines of the Trans-Himalaya Forum for International Cooperation.  South China Morning Post

North Korea Condemns France for Patrol Aircraft Deployment.  North Korea on Friday denounced France for deploying a patrol aircraft over water near the Korean peninsula, describing it as "outdated gunboat diplomacy.”  The condemnation comes in the wake of Japan’s announcement earlier this week that France will perform surveillance of illicit maritime operations, such as ship-to-ship transfers by North Korean-flagged vessels, using aircraft launched from Okinawa’s Futenma Air Base.  The Japanese foreign ministry said on Monday that this was the fourth time such activities have taken place since 2019.  Pyongyang criticized France several months ago for a joint air exercise with South Korea, labeling it as a "military provocation.” Reuters

Turkey Says 26 Militants ‘Neutralized’ As Conflict in Syria Escalates.  Turkish forces attacked Kurdish militants in eastern Turkey and northern Syria in the latest escalation in the conflict in the area.  The Turkish Defense Ministry said its forces “neutralized” 26 Kurdish militants in Syria overnight in retaliation for a rocket attack on a Turkish base on Thursday.  A Turkish police officer was reportedly killed, and seven officers and soldiers wounded in the rocket attack. The ministry also said Turkey conducted airstrikes that destroyed 30 militant targets elsewhere in Northern Syria. The Turkish Foreign Ministry said the “terrorist organization in Syria will continue to be destroyed in a systematic way.”  Reuters 

U.S. Extending Southern Border Wall, Restarting Direct Deportations of Venezuelans.  Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas announced Thursday that the U.S. is renewing direct deportations of Venezuelan nationals who cross into the U.S. unlawfully from Mexico, as part of efforts to stem migrant crossings.  Mayorkas said that Washington and Caracas have agreed to repatriate Venezuelans "who do not take advantage of the lawful pathways and instead arrive irregularly at our southern border and do not qualify for relief.”  Mayorkas asserted that these measures work to ensure there are "strict consequences" for illegal entry into the U.S.,and added that “we are a nation of laws." The policy, which takes immediate effect, was announced the same day that Biden said he would extend sections of the southern border wall, continuing a signature policy of the Trump administration.  Reuters New York Times Washington Post Wall Street Journal 

Venezuelan Authorities Issue Arrest Warrant for Opposition Leader Juan Guaido.  Venezuelan Attorney General Tarek William Saab on Thursday announced that the government has issued an arrest warrant for former opposition head Juan Guaido, who has been accused of using the state-owned oil enterprise PDVSA’s resources to pay his legal expenses and fund himself.  Saab alleged that Guaido’s actions “caused losses to the nation of $19 billion.” He also said that Caracas will ask Interpol for a red notice.  Guaido, who fled to Miami in April of this year, performed duties as the interim president of Venezuela’s transitional government from 2019 until 2022, when he was removed from his role.  Guaido called the allegations against him “false” and said Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro cannot “kidnap” him or silence his voice.  CNN France 24 Washington Post

Niger Says French Forces in Southwest First to Withdraw.  Niger’s military junta said on Thursday that 400 French soldiers in the southwestern town of Ouallam will be the first French forces to withdraw from the country.  Ouallam holds thousands of displaced people from surrounding villages amid insurgent and armed group violence.  The junta also said an air base in the capital Niamey, where most French forces in Niger are stationed, will be dismantled by the end of the year.  France did not immediately comment on the matter, but it announced French forces will begin pulling out from Niger this week and will withdraw by the end of the year.  Reuters

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