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5:30 PM ET, Wednesday, November 22, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:  

THE TOP STORIES

Rainbow Bridge Connecting U.S. and Canada Closed After Vehicle Explosion.  A vehicle exploded on the Rainbow Bridge connecting Canada to Niagara Falls, New York on Wednesday, killing two passengers inside the vehicle and injuring a U.S. Customs and Border Protection officer.  Eyewitnesses said the car was speeding and swerving as it approached the border from the U.S. side.  They said the vehicle then hit a fence and crashed at the security checkpoint.  The FBI, ATF, and federal border agents are investigating the incident.  Officials familiar with the investigation said there was no immediate evidence of terrorism, but they emphasized that investigations are ongoing.  Authorities have closed Rainbow Bridge and three other U.S.-Canada bridge crossings in western New York.  The crossings are among the busiest in the world.  Buffalo Niagara International Airport is also currently closed to departing and arriving international flights, and travelers there will undergo increased security checks and screenings.  The explosion occurred on one of the U.S.’s heaviest travel days, ahead of Thanksgiving Day.  New York Governor Kathy Hochul is traveling to Buffalo to meet with law enforcement and emergency responders on the incident.  The White House and Canadian officials say they are monitoring the situation.  CNN New York Times Reuters Washington Post 

Iraq Condemns U.S. Airstrikes Against Iran-backed Militias as Violation of Sovereignty.  The Iraqi government on Wednesday condemned the U.S. for airstrikes against Iran-backed militias south of Baghdad.  Iraq government spokesman Bassem al-Awadi said the strikes were not coordinated with Iraq and constitute an “unacceptable violation of Iraqi sovereignty.”  Pro-Iran militia Kataib Hezbollah confirmed that the U.S. strikes killed eight of its fighters and vowed that the attacks “will not go unpunished.”  U.S. Central Command said the strikes were in retaliation for attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq.  Most recently, the Ain-al Asad airbase south of Baghdad was hit by a “close-range ballistic missile” on Monday night, causing eight injuries to U.S. military personnel.  Iraqi spokesperson al-Awadi denounced the Iran-backed groups for attacking U.S. forces, saying they are engaging in “unlawful” activity and “jeopardizing the national interest.”  The U.S. has conducted recent strikes against Iran-backed groups in Syria, but has avoided combat action in Iraq until now due to the country’s delicate political situation.  The Pentagon says at least 62 U.S. personnel in the region have been injured in attacks by Iran-backed groups since the Hamas attacks against Israel on October 7.  Al Jazeera Barron’s

North Korea Fires Missile After Claiming Successful Spy Satellite Launch.  South Korea’s military said North Korea conducted a suspected failed missile test on Wednesday night.  South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the missile was fired from the Pyongyang capital region toward North Korea’s eastern waters but appears to have failed.  South Korean and U.S. authorities are reportedly analyzing the North Korean launch, which was Pyongyang’s first weapons firing in over two months.  The launch came hours after South Korea said it is suspending part of an inter-Korean agreement and restarting aerial surveillance along the border of the two Koreas.  The move was in response to North Korea claiming that it successfully launched its first spy satellite into orbit.  South Korea’s military assessed that a North Korean satellite is in orbit but it is still analyzing whether it is operational.  Earlier, Japan said it was still confirming whether the satellite was in orbit and the Pentagon said it was assessing the launch.  North Korean state media claimed that the spy satellite gathered imagery of military sites in Guam, but it did not publicize the photos.  Analysts remain skeptical about whether the satellite is advanced enough to conduct meaningful military reconnaissance.  Associated Press 

Uruguay, China Upgrade Ties.  Uruguay and China upgraded their bilateral ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership on Wednesday.  Chinese President Xi Jinping and Uruguayan President Luis Lacalle Pou elevated their countries’ relations at a meeting in Beijing.  The move sets the conditions for greater trade and investment and  puts Uruguay-China relations on the same level as Beijing’s relations with Argentina and Brazil.  Lacalle Pou had proposed a free trade agreement with China in 2021 but has faced pushback from fellow members of the Mercosur trade bloc who are seeking an FTA with Eurrope instead.  Uruguay is one of the few countries to have a trade surplus with China, which doubled to $1.5 billion last year from $766 million in 2021.  Reuters 

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israel Displays Tunnel Under Al Shifa Hospital it says was a Hamas Hideout.  The Israeli army on Wednesday showed a reinforced tunnel beside Al Shifa Hospital in northern Gaza that it said was a command post for Hamas.  The tunnel was accessed through an outdoor shaft in hospital grounds.  Colonel Elad Tsuri, commander of the Israeli armored brigade that found the tunnel, reiterated that the tunnel shows how Hamas used the hospital “as a human shield.”  He added that Hamas fighters could stay in the tunnel “for a long time.”  Israeli army escorts confirmed this to journalists by showing them a kitchen, bathroom, and air-conditioned meeting room at the tunnel.  Tsuri added that the Israeli army is aware that the tunnel leads to another opening in a kindergarten in Gaza.  The finding of the tunnel comes after Israeli forces entered Al Shifa to find Hamas fighters or hostages held by the group.  Israel has said that Hamas uses the hospital as a command center and that it operates in tunnels underneath the medical facility.  Hamas and hospital officials have denied this.  Reuters

U.S. Sending Data on Aid Groups in Gaza to Israel to Prevent Strikes Against Them.  The Biden administration has reportedly been providing Israel with data about the location of humanitarian groups’ operations in Gaza for at least a month to prevent strikes against them.  Sources said the information included GPS coordinates of medical facilities, including the Al-Shifa Hospital, which Israeli forces entered on November 15, and data on movements of aid groups in Gaza.  It is unclear if the U.S. has given Israel a formal “no-strike” list or if it is providing one-off deconfliction guidance.  Despite the transfer of information, Israeli forces have reportedly continued to conduct operations in or near aid sites.  Aid groups have said that Israeli military actions are making it nearly impossible to continue operations in Gaza.  U.S. officials have emphasized that aid groups are struggling to operate in Gaza because Hamas uses civilians and civilian facilities as human shields.  Both humanitarian organizations and U.S. officials say that the U.N. Humanitarian Notification System, which aims to prevent incidental attacks on civilians, needs to be improved.  Politico

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukrainian Strike Kills Russian Marines at Donetsk Award Ceremony.  Ukraine’s military reported on Wednesday that a Ukrainian strike killed dozens of Russian marines at an awards ceremony in the Donetsk region on Sunday.  Robert “Magyar” Brovdi, a commander at Ukraine’s 59th Brigade, said on Tuesday that the attack killed 25 Russian marines and injured over 100 more.  Members of Russia’s 810th Marine Brigade were reportedly attending the awards ceremony at the village of Kumachove to mark a Russian military holiday when the attack occurred.  Russian actress Polina Menshikh was performing for the soldiers at the ceremony and was killed in the attack, according to Russian state media and her theater.  Brovdi said the attack was “payback” for the Russian missile strike that killed 19 soldiers at an awards ceremony attended by Ukraine’s 128th Mountain Assault Brigade in early November.  Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said that the attack was caused by basic security measures being ignored.  BBC Kyiv Independent 

Ukraine Military says it Repelled Russian Armored Vehicle Attacks Near Avdiivka.  Ukraine’s military said it repelled Russian attacks involving armored vehicles near Avdiivka on Wednesday.  A spokesperson for Ukrainian military’s Tavria group said Russian forces lost almost 80% of equipment used in 13 unsuccessful attacks in and around the town.  Ukraine has said its defenses are holding at Avdiivka and other areas on the eastern front as it continues counteroffensive operations in southern Ukraine.  Kyiv Independent 

Russian Strike on Southern Ukrainian Hospital Kills Three.  A Russian strike on a hospital in Ukraine's southern town of Selydove has killed three people on Tuesday.  The strike damaged two buildings of the hospital, injuring eight people, and damaged a coal mine, authorities said. Last week, Selydove was hit by a missile that struck an apartment block.  Russia has denied deliberately targeting civilians, though many have been killed in its air strikes in Ukraine.  Reuters

E.U. Sends 1.5 Billion Euros in Macro-Financial Assistance to Ukraine.  European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Thursday that the E.U. has sent its latest 1.5 billion euro ($1.6 million) tranche of macro-financial assistance to Ukraine.  The support is part of the wider 18 billion euro ($19.6 billion) Macro-Financial Assistance (MFA) package for Ukraine for 2023.  The aid aims to help Ukraine pay for essential public services, maintain macroeconomic stability, and restore critical infrastructure damaged in Russian attacks.  Kyiv Independent 

Putin says Time to Think About How to Stop the ‘Tragedy’ of the Ukraine War.  Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that it is necessary to start thinking about how to stop “the tragedy” of the Ukraine war.  Putin also notably described the conflict as a “war,” rather than using the Kremlin term of “special military operation.”  He then asserted that the Ukrainian government has persecuted people in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine and also blamed Kyiv for the lack of peace talks, saying that Russia is “ready for talks” and has never said it would refuse peace negotiations.  His remarks came at a virtual meeting of Group of 20 leaders, some of whom expressed concern and shock about Russia’s continued “aggression” against Ukraine.  Putin’s comments were among his most dovish on the war and were clearly intended for international consumption.  (Editor’s Note: The U.S. and other Western partners have said that Putin could stop the unnecessary war in Ukraine by simply withdrawing Russian forces from Ukrainian territory.  Ukraine’s peace plan likewise calls for the pullback of Russian troops from Ukraine.)  Reuters The Guardian 

Poland Arrests 15 in Investigation of Russian Spy Network.  Polish media reports that Poland has arrested 15 people as part of an investigation into a Russian spy network.  Sixteen foreign nationals are suspected of participating in an organized criminal group and acting against Polish interests for foreign intelligence for their alleged involvement in the network.  The suspects, who Polish authorities said are from “beyond our eastern border,” face up to 10 years in prison.  The network is suspected to have operated between January and March in cities near the borders with Belarus and Ukraine and in other areas of Poland.  Officials say members of the network were paid by Russian security services to identify critical infrastructure in Poland and install surveillance cameras on transport routes used to ship military equipment to Ukraine.  Kyiv Independent

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Cybersecurity Experts Warn of Sharp Rise in Holiday-Related Online Shopping Scams.  Phishing attacks are among the likeliest online scams to be aimed at consumers in the holiday shopping sprint that begins on Black Friday.  Cybersecurity experts have observed a surge in phishing campaigns as the online retail season kicks into high gear.  The experts warn, in particular, against online lures of “too good to be true” deals, along with hackers masquerading as well known brands that lead unwary consumers to fake URL’s.  Malware attacks executed through downloads from seemingly benign holiday-themed advertising are another common avenue for scams. Lynette Owens, an executive with the Trend Micro cybersecurity firm, noted that the company observed “nearly 35,000 Black Friday scam-related sites looking to lure victims" in October. Trend Micro reports a 9.46 percent increase in Black Friday scam URLs concentrating on California shoppers.  A security expert with the Sift company pointed to gift card fraud as another significant risk in the holiday season as scammers take advantage of consumer tendencies to not redeem the cards quickly, “which allows time for fraudulent activity.”  Overall, the advice to shoppers is to confirm source identities before clicking on email links from unknown senders and links in social media ad campaigns. Cybernews

U.S. Researchers Say Chinese Space Debris Left ‘Unusual Crater’ After Moon Impact.  A U.S. university study reports that remains of a Chinese rocked that impacted the moon’s surface last year showed signs of having unusual devices on board.  The research team said the spacecraft left a “very unusual” double crater on impact, indicating the possibility it was carrying an “undisclosed, additional payload.”  Using ground-based telescopes, the researchers from the University of Arizona, the Planetary Science Institute, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Project Pluto, said they had determined “conclusively” that the space junk was from the Long March 3C rocket booster used for China’s 2014 Chang’e-5 T-1 mission.  In February 2022, the Chinese Foreign Ministry denied the Long March rocket had hit the moon, claiming that the upper stage of the Chang’e-5 mission rocket had safely entered Earth’s atmosphere and burned.  The research team observed that its work underscored the importance of tracking “space junk.”  South China Morning Post

Nvidia Reports Record 3^rd-Quarter Earnings, Decline in China Chip Sales.  The world-leading AI chip company, Nvidia, reported record earnings in the third quarter of the year, although the company warned that Chinese sales will “decline significantly” in the final quarter when new U.S. export curbs take full effect.  Sales in the Chinese market usually amount to 20-25 percent of company data center revenues.  Nvidia has reported it is developing new chip products that will comply with the expanded U.S. restrictions.  The company’s third-quarter earnings totaled $18.12 billion, a 206 percent increase from last year.  Colette Kress, Nvidia’s chief financial officer, said during an earnings call that the company expects declines in China sales “will be more than offset by strong growth in other regions."   Kress added that "new, regulation-compliant" products for restricted markets may become available in "the next coming months."  Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said in a statement that the company’s growth “reflects the broad industry platform transition from general-purpose to accelerated computing and generative AI.”  Huang added following on the deployment of multiple large language models, new waves of investment will follow as nations and companies invest in AI cloud services with software firms “adding AI copilots and assistants to their platforms, and enterprises are creating custom AI to automate the world’s largest industries.”  Nikkei Asia VentureBeat Reuters

New House Bill Proposes AI Working Group To Propel ‘Five Eyes’ Technology Strategy.  A bipartisan bill has been introduced in the House that would require creation of a new working group within the Five Eyes intelligence alliance leading to a strategic initiative to accelerate AI collaboration and development.  While the “Five AI’s Act” is viewed as a stepping stone to a broader initiative, it directs the DoD to form the working group explore issues impacting alliance-wide issues such as AI defenses, innovation, and ethics. The bill proposes that the working group seek out ways to “to advance and accelerate the interoperability of artificial intelligence systems used for intelligence sharing, battlespace awareness, and other covered operational uses.”  One of the goals of the effort would be to develop channels for sharing information in Five Eyes command-and-control systems.  If enacted, the bill would create a “Five AIs Strategic Artificial Intelligence Working Group” with a term extending to 2028.  The bill envisions the participation of members of the independent, Five Eyes Intelligence Oversight and Review Council.  The newly introduced bill has been referred to the House Committees on Foreign Affairs, Armed Services, and Intelligence.  DefenseScoop BreakingDefense

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

Asia and Oceania

Xi says China Seeks to Strengthen ‘Everlasting’ Good Ties with Russia.  Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Wednesday that Beijing want to strengthen its “everlasting” good relationship with Russia.  Xi made the comments when meeting Vyacheslav Volodin, chairman of the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament, in Beijing.  Xi’s remarks echo Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent comments calling for deeper Sino-Russian ties.  Most recently, he said at a forum in St. Petersburg on Friday that Chinese-Russian relations are “truly unique” and have “never reached such a height and quality in the history of our states.”  China and Russia have committed to a “no limits” partnership.  Cipher Brief experts have called this a relationship of convenience for China, which is the more dominant player and is motivated to work closely with Russia due to tensions with the U.S.  South China Morning Post 

Europe

Finland Closes All But One Border Crossing with Russia.  Finland is closing all but one remote borders crossing with Russia after accusing Moscow of creating an artificial migrant crisis at the border by sending hundreds of asylum seekers there in recent weeks.  Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said the border closures will start at midnight on Friday.  The Raja-Jooseppi crossing, the far northern Lapland region, will be the only crossing to remain open to process asylum applications.  The Institute for the Study of War has assessed that Russia facilitating the movement of asylum seekers to the border is part of its hybrid warfare efforts to destabilize neighboring NATO countries.  The Guardian Kyiv Independent Reuters 

Switzerland Approves Transfer of Leopard 2 Tanks to Germany.  Switzerland has approved the export of 25 decommissioned Leopard 2 battle tanks back to Germany, re-selling them to the original manufacturer Rheinmetall.  Switzerland approved the transfer on the condition that the tanks must only be used to fill gaps in E.U. or NATO member states, meaning that they cannot be sent to Ukraine.  Switzerland’s long-standing neutrality policy prevents the delivery of Swiss weapons to combat zones, even when given to an intermediary country.  Germany and other European militaries have been working to acquire new Leopard 2 tanks as they have sent some units from their own stocks to Ukraine.  Deutsche Welle Kyiv Independent 

Spanish Politician Shot in Madrid Accuses Iran of Being Behind Attempted Assassination. A Spanish politician shot in Madrid earlier this month has accused Iran of being behind his attempted murder.  Alejo Vidal-Quadras, founder of Spain's far-right Vox party and former head of its center-right People's Party in Catalonia, addressed the matter at a conference organized by Iranian opposition supporters. He was shot in the face on a sidewalk in the wealthy Salamanca neighborhood of central Madrid on November 9th. Vidal-Quadras was European Parliament vice-president between 2009 and 2014, and has been described after the shooting as a "staunch supporter" of Iran's opposition movement and the campaign for human rights in Iran over 25 years.  Reuters

Africa

Mali, Russia Agree on Deal to Build Gold Refinery.  Mail’s military junta signed an agreement with Russia to build a gold refinery in Mali’s capital Bamako.  Mali minister Alousenni Sanou said the agreement, a non-binding memorandum of understanding, provides for the construction of a 200-tonnes-per-year refinery.  The memorandum is valid for four years and does not outline a timeline for the construction of the refinery.  If constructed, it would be Mali’s largest gold refinery.  The deal is the latest sign of Russia’s growing influence in Mali.  Sanou said Mali has also signed a deal with a Russian firm to build a 200- to 300-megawatt solar power plant by mid-2025.  Russia’s state nuclear energy company Rosatom signed a deal with Mali in October on mineral exploration and nuclear energy production.  Reuters

The data cutoff for this product was 4:00p.m. E.T.

Ethan Masucol, Ken Hughes, and Ryan Simons contributed to this report. 

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