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5:30 PM ET, Wednesday, November 1, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security.

THE TOP STORIES

AI Summit Declaration Expresses Unanimous Commitment to Contain AI Risks.  All 29 governments represented at the AI Safety Summit, including the U.S., China, and the European Union, have signed the “Bletchley Declaration,” acknowledging the special urgency of understanding potential risks of AI development and developing actions to address them.  The declaration, named after the summit site, Bletchley Park, expressed agreement that shared work is needed to capitalize on AI benefits and mitigate the technology’s risks.  Uncertainties in continued AI development led to the declaration’s caution concerning specific sectors “such as cybersecurity and biotechnology, as well as where frontier AI systems may amplify risks such as disinformation.”  The statement warned of the potential “for serious, even catastrophic, harm, either deliberate or unintentional” without safeguards on the technology’s advances.  The declaration reportedly removed phrasing from earlier drafts that raised alarm over AI systems’ abilities to “increase their own influence and reduce human control.”  UK Technology Secretary Michelle Donelan said the summit declaration is a “landmark achievement” that creates the foundation for the summit’s discussions over two days of meetings.  U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Wu Zhaohui, China’s representative at the summit, shared the stage at the summit’s opening.  The Telegraph Cybernews Reuters Washington Post

Following AI Executive Order, Vice President Unveils More Initiatives in London Speech.  Addressing an audience at the U.S. Embassy in London before participating in the UK’s AI Safety Summit at Bletchley Park on Thursday, Vice President Kamala Harris outlined several additional measures the U.S. will take to safeguard against risks arising out of continued development of AI.  She also drew attention to harms already emanating from AI applications, including faulty AI algorithms, deepfakes, and biased facial recognition.  Among the initiatives Harris announced to address AI safety concerns was the establishment of an AI Safety Institute, the release for public comment of the first-ever draft policy guidance on AI use by the Federal government, and the endorsement by 31 nations of the Political Declaration on the Responsible Military Use of Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy, which the U.S. initiated in February.  In addition, Harris announced a program bringing a network of philanthropic organizations together to jointly fund several AI-related priorities that include ensuring AI protects democracy and rights, empowering workers to thrive amid AI-driven changes, and supporting international rules and norms on AI.  New York Times Reuters The White House The Telegraph

Musk Sees Summit Creating Framework for ‘Third-Party Referee’ Over AI Development.  Elon Musk, the founder of SpaceX and owner of the X social media platform, told media covering the Bletchley Park AI summit, that a “third-party referee” is needed to safeguard against threats posed by unfettered development of the technology.  Speaking of the summit’s goals, Musk said the participants are creating a framework in which a “third-party referee” can monitor AI development and “at least sound the alarm if they have concerns."  Musk said he did not precisely what would constitute “fair rules,” but added “you've got to start with insight before you do oversight."  Musk remarked that many in the AI sector are concerned that governments will act prematurely to lay down regulations.  He noted, "I think that's unlikely to happen.”  Reuters

Biden Nominates Campbell to be Deputy Secretary of State.  President Joe Biden on Wednesday nominated Kurt Campbell as deputy secretary of state.  Campbell is currently coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs on the National Security Council and previously founded and led The Asia Group, a strategic advisory and capital management group.  Campbell is viewed as being an intellectual author of the Obama administration’s “pivot to Asia” strategy to commit more resources to the region.  Experts say having Campbell in the No. 2 position at the State Department will bolster confidence that the U.S. is still committed to addressing China in the Indo-Pacific despite other challenges, such as Ukraine and new Middle East turmoil.  Reuters Washington Post South China Morning Post 

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israel Claims to Kill Another Hamas Commander in Second Attack on Gaza Refugee Camp.  Israel’s military said it killed the head of Hamas’s anti-tank missile unit, Muhammad A’sar, in another attack on the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza.  The Israeli military said its fighter jets struck a Hammas command and control center in Jabalia to kill A’sar “based on precise intelligence,” adding that Hamas was attempting to shield itself by placing its fighters and infrastructure “around and within civilian buildings.”  There were no immediate reports on casualties from the strike, which came a day after another attack on the camp, which Israeli forces said killed another Hamas commander.  U.N. humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths denounced the Jabalia attack, calling for pauses in the conflict to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza.  E.U. foreign policy chief Josep Borrell likewise said he was “appalled” by civilian casualties from the Jabalia strikes.  Al Jazeera Reuters Wall Street Journal

Foreign Nationals Leave Gaza in Limited Evacuations.  Egyptian state media reporter that 361 foreigners and 45 injured Palestinians have left Gaza through the Rafah border crossing into Egypt.  Officials said there have been long, intense negotiations to secure the evacuations, with a Qatar-brokered deal finally breaking the deadlock.  Officials say evacuations will continue on Thursday.  The U.S. State Department said U.S. officials are in contact with 400 Americans who are seeking to leave Gaza.  Reuters Wall Street Journal Washington Post 

Jordan Recalls Ambassador Israel.  Jordan recalled its ambassador to Israel on Wednesday in protest of Israeli attacks on Gaza, saying that they have killed innocents and caused a humanitarian catastrophe.  Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi added that the move was also taken because of the Israeli blockade of Gaza following the Hamas attacks.  Safadi said Jordan’s ambassador would only return to Tel Aviv if Israel ceased its attacks and ended the “humanitarian crisis it has caused.” He also said the Israeli envoy to Jordan, who left two weeks ago amid protests over Israel’s military actions in Gaza, will only be allowed to return on the same conditions.  Jordan has been stepping up diplomatic pressure on Israel to end the Israel-Hamas conflict, in part over concerns that it will escalate and spread across the region.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Iran Warns of ‘Harsh Consequences’ if Israel Continues Gaza Attacks.  Tehran continued its threatening rhetoric against Israel, with Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian warning of “harsh consequences” if Israeli attacks continue on the Gaza Strip and an “immediate ceasefire” is not implemented.  U.S. forces in the region have been attacked by Iran-backed proxies since the Hamas attacks on Israel.  The U.S. and Israel have responded with retaliatory strikes against some of these armed groups.  Iran says it supports Hamas but did not have any part in the militant group’s attack on Israel.  Reuters

Expert Perspective: The Israel-Hamas Intelligence Failure and Need for a ‘Post-Hamas Plan’ for Gaza.  Former senior CIA officer and Cipher Brief Expert Daniel Hoffman discussed the intelligence failure ahead of the Hamas attacks and what is needed after the Israel-Hamas conflict.  Regarding the U.S. role, Hoffman said much intelligence collection on Hamas had been “outsourced,” noting that Israel has a “comparative advantage” in the region. However, he said that U.S. analysts should have been looking at the Israeli intelligence and asking key questions like whether Israeli-Saudi diplomatic engagement could trigger a response by Iran-backed forces or if the U.S. should have done a Red Cell to assess Israeli deterrence of Hamas. Hoffman added it may have been a policy failure to focus on working with Arab partners rather than focusing on the Palestinian issue.

Hoffman also said that the U.S. and its partners are “losing the information war” as Hamas and Iran “own the narrative.”  He suggested that a way to address this and “drive a wedge” between innocent Palestinians and Hamas is to have a post-Hamas plan for Gaza, which must involve regional powers.  Hoffman warned that lacking a post-conflict reconstruction plan could lead to consequences similar to those faced in Iraq.  Fox News

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine Reports Russia Dropped ‘Explosive Objects’ in Black Sea Corridor.  Ukraine said that Russian warplanes had dropped “explosive objects” in the expected paths of civilian vessels in Ukraine’s humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea on Wednesday.  Ukraine’s southern military command observed three drops in the last 24 hours and said that despite the attack, the corridor “continue to function.”  Russia’s defense ministry has not commented on the matter.  Ukraine opened the corridor in the western Black Sea as a route to export its grain after Russia withdrew from the Black Sea grain deal.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last week that the export corridor will remain in use despite threats from Russia.  He also said he discussed vessel insurance with at least one Western leader.  Kyiv Independent Reuters

Ukraine’s Army Chief Calls for New Military Capabilities for Attritional Fighting.

Ukraine’s top general Valery Zaluzhnyi writes in The Economist that the Ukrainian military needs new military capabilities and technology as the war with Russia moves to positional warfare with static and attritional fighting.  He emphasized the need for air power to break out of this stage of the war.  He also called on Ukraine to build up its army reserves and expand the categories of Ukrainian citizens who are eligible to be called up for training or to be mobilized.  Reuters The Economist

Russian One-Way-Attack Lancet Drones Proven to Be Highly Effective.  The UK’s Ministry of Defense reports that Russia’s Lancet one-way-attack uncrewed-aerial-vehicle (OWA UAV) is likely the most effective new capability Russia has used in its invasion of Ukraine over the last 12 months.  Lancets pilot over enemy territory and are designed to dive at targets and detonate.  They are used to attack priority targets and have especially been used for counter-battery strikes against Ukrainian artillery.  Lancets represent a shift in Russia’s use of small UAVs, which it normally uses for reconnaissance.  Ukraine also has experience using OWA UAVs.  UK Ministry of Defense X 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Chinese Research Team Reports Photon-Based Chip That Outperforms Nvidia AI Product.  A research team from China’s Tsinghua University has published an article describing their manufacture of a chip that is faster and more energy efficient than current advanced AI chips in image recognition and enabling autonomous driving.  Writing in the journal, Nature, the research team noted the new chip cannot replace those that power computers or smartphones, but may be appropriate for wearable devices, smart factories, and mass application of AI.  The All-Analogue Chip Combining Electronics and Light (ACCEL) chip uses photons, a type of elementary particle, for computing and transmitting information to accelerated computing speeds.  Laboratory tests of the new chip reached a computing speed of 4.6 PFLOPS, 3,000 times faster than Nvidia’s A100.  The Chinese chip also consumes 4 million times less energy.  China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) manufactured the chip,  using a cheap 20-year-old transistor fabrication process.  The researchers noted that photonic computing systems previously were a challenge due to noise and system errors, but they introduced an innovation into the computing framework “that fuses photonic and analogue electronic computing.”  Funding for the project was provided by the Chinese science ministry’s National Key Research and Development Programme and the National Natural Science Foundation of China.  South China Morning Post

DoD Official Describes Status of SOF-Cyber-Space Concept at NDIA Symposium.  Chris Maier, the assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low intensity conflict, told a National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA) symposium Tuesday that the modern triad concept integrating special operations, cyber, and space forces is still largely theoretical at the joint level.  Maier credited Army SOF commander Lt. Gen Jon Braga with “really leading within the Army“ to advance the concept.  Maier added that the concept needs to be further fleshed out in order to “really show what this means and show how [it] closes kill chains or solves problems for the joint force beyond just something that is unique.”  The assistant defense secretary noted that while SOF and cyber linkages are well established, space is “going to be the harder piece of this triad to bring in.”  The three communities involved, Maier said, have an appetite to advance the triad concept thanks to buy-in from their respective leaderships.  DefenseScoop

Microsoft Executive Warns of Israel-Hamas Conflict’s Impact on Israel’s Tech Sector.  Timer Simon, chief scientist at Microsoft Israel’s R&D Center, expressed concern over the future of Israel’s tech sector due to the Israel-Hamas conflict, warning multinational companies may close research and development activities for high tech in Israel.  Simon said he expressed his concerns in a letter to Israel’s head of the National Security Council, but never received a reply. "There is a great danger here,” Simon warned. “Israel cannot return to just producing oranges. Without high-tech we will return to being a third world economy.”  Simon called on leaders to send a clear message to Israel’s international partners and the global business community that Israel is committed to a prosperous and stable future.  Reuters

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Europe

Turkish Parliament Signals No Rush in Ratifying Sweden’s NATO Membership Bid.  The Turkish parliament’s foreign affairs committee chair Fuat Oktay said Turkey will discuss ratifying Sweden’s NATO membership bid in its regular agenda, signaling that Ankara is not in a hurry to complete the process.  Otkay described Sweden’s NATO membership as “just one of the international agreements on our agenda” and that Turkey will “discuss it when the time comes,” adding that “what is urgent for others is not necessarily urgent for (us.)”  The Sweden NATO membership bill must first be approved by the committee before being voted on by the full parliament to send to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.  Reuters Kyiv Independent 

Switzerland Buying Patriot Missiles.  Lockheed Martin announced on Tuesday that Switzerland signed a contract to buy the company’s Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (PAC-3 MSE) weapons, the most advanced version of the Patriot missile.  The company did not detail how many of the weapons Switzerland plans to buy, but the U.S. State Department previously approved the potential sale of up to 72 PAC-3 MSE missiles for around $700 million.  Switzerland’s military procurement agency Armasuisse said that the contract will have Switzerland pay $331 million for the weapons.  Switzerland reportedly wants the PAC-3 MSE missiles, which have a shorter range but are more maneuverable than the tactical variant, for intercepting short-range missiles, aircraft, and drones.  Armasuisse said core Patriot components from manufacturer RTX will start arriving in Switzerland in 2026, while the PAC-3 missiles from Lockheed will be delivered in 2028 and 2029.  Defense News

Asia and Oceania

China, Russian Energy Giants Discussing Joint Hydrocarbon Development, Trade.  Xie Jun, the vice president of China’s state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), said on Wednesday that China is in talks with Russia’s energy giants Rosneft, Gazprom and Novatek about joint development of oil and gas fields, pipeline projects and hydrocarbon trade.  Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Gas Forum, Xie said CNPC and Gazprom are looking at Russian gas supplies to China via the Far Eastern Route.  Russia has been supplying gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline since December 2019 with deliveries expected to reach 38 billion cubic meters (BCM) per year in 2025.  Gazprom has signed a second contract to supply 10 bcm per year through the Far Eastern Route in February 2022.  Russia is looking to China to make up for lost gas sales to Europe.  Industry experts warn of potential political risks, highlighting how such arrangements would be too dependent on one buyer.  Reuters 

Pakistan Starts Rounding Up Undocumented Immigrants Ahead of Deadline.  Pakistan has begun rounding up undocumented foreigners, most of them from Afghanistan, ahead of a midnight deadline for them to leave or be expelled.  The removal of people to temporary holding centers started a day earlier than previously stated.  The interior ministry announced that 140,322 people have already left voluntarily.  Pakistan has brushed off calls to reconsider the removal of undocumented immigrants by the U.N. and Western embassies.   Islamabad has said Afghan nationals were involved in 14 suicide attacks in the country this year, as well as other crimes.  Kabul has rejected these accusations.  Reuters

Africa

Suspected Boko Haram Attack Kills 40 in Nigeria.  Nigerian police report that suspected BOko Haram militants killed at least 40 people in Nigeria’s northeastern Yobe state between Monday and Tuesday.  Authorities said it was the first major attack on Yobe state in 18 months.  Boko Haram is most active in neighboring Borno state.  Reuters

The data cutoff for this product was 4:00p.m. E.T.

Ethan Masucol, Ken Hughes and Ryan Simons contributed to this report.

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