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5:30 PM ET, Thursday, October 5, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

THE TOP STORIES:

Putin Claims Russia Successfully Tested Nuclear-Powered Missile.  Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed on Thursday that Russia successfully tested an experimental nuclear-powered cruise missile.  Putin did not say when the test of the missile, named the Burevestnik, occurred or how far the missile flew.  The New York Times reported on Monday that Russia was either preparing to test or already tested the Burevestnik, which reportedly has a designed range of over 10,000 miles.  The report cited satellite imagery from late September of activity at a launchpad at a remote Russian base in the Arctic, including the presence of a trailer with the reported dimensions of the Burevestnik.  Putin announced the program to develop the Burevestnik in March 2018.  The Nuclear Threat Initiative reported that there were at least 13 failed trials of the missile between 2018 and 2019.  Experts say that even with a successful test, the Burevestnik is likely years from operational development.  Separately, Putin added that there is “no need” to alter Moscow’s nuclear doctrine, noting that he does not think the Russian state is under threat since “no person of sound mind and clear memory” would think of launching a nuclear attack against Russia.  However, he said it is possible that Moscow could revoke its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, suggesting that Russia could resume nuclear testing.  Associated Press CNN New York Times Reuters Reuters

U.S. F-16 Downs Turkish Drone Over Syria.  A U.S. F-16 fighter jet on Thursday downed an armed Turkish drone in northeastern Syria.  It is believed to have been the first time the U.S. has shot down an aircraft of NATO ally Turkey.  Pentagon spokesperson Brigadier General Pat Ryder said the drone came within 0.3 miles of U.S. troops and was determined a threat to U.S. forces.  He added that the there was “no indication” that the drone was intentionally targeting U.S. forces.  He also said that U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had a “fruitful” conversation with his Turkish counterpart following the incident.  A Turkish defense ministry official said the drone did not belong to the Turkish armed forces but did not say who operated it.  Sources say Turkey’s National Intelligence Agency has been carrying out strikes in Syria against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) after it claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing in Ankara on Sunday.  CBS News Politico Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE:

Ukraine Says Russian Missile Strike Kills At Least 51 Near Kupiansk.  Ukrainian officials say that a Russian missile strike on the village of Hroza in the northeastern Kharkiv region killed at least 51 people on Thursday.  Interior Minister Igor Klymenko said the attack hit a shop and cafe, where about 330 people were holding a memorial service.  A spokesperson for the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office said the cafe was hosting a wake for a fallen soldier.  Officials added that an Iskander missile was used in the attack.  The strike appears to have been the deadliest against Ukraine’s civilian population since the attack on Kramatorsk railway station in early 2022.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated calls for more air defenses to protect Ukrainians from such attacks, highlighting the Patriot system as “the only system that can withstand such threats and massacres.”  Zelensky, who is meeting European leaders, added that Spain has committed six Hawk systems for Ukraine and that Germany is working to send another Patriot system to Kyiv.  CNN Reuters 

Zelensky Calls for Continued Support, Warns Russia Could Target Others.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday warned European leaders that if they do not support Kyiv in its resistance against Russia, Moscow could rebuild its military capabilities and attack other countries.  He said Russia, its military, and its proxies pose “a threat to all of us” and that European powers should realize their potential and work together to counter Russia.  His appeal to Europe comes amid concerns about further aid from the U.S. due to what Zelensky called the “growing political storm” concerning the leadership crisis in the U.S. Congress.  Zelensky emphasized that despite current uncertainty about U.S. support, Ukraine has been resilient throughout the war and is “ready for any tough period.”  CNN Reuters

Putin Claims Russia Did Not Start War in Ukraine, Touches on Prigozhin Plane Crash.  Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered his annual speech to the Valdai Discussion Club, being held in Sochi, on Thursday.  He reiterated his assertion that Russia did not start the war in Ukraine and is “trying to finish it,” adding that Russia launched its “special military operation” into Ukraine due to “increasing military and political pressure” from the West, which he argued has lost its “sense of reality.”  Moscow has long claimed it was forced to take military action in Ukraine to counter supposed NATO expansion, while the West has seen the war as part of his imperial ambitions to restore the Russian empire.  Putin also said that Ukraine would last “a week” without foreign support, in an apparent reference to concerns about further aid from the U.S.  Regarding the plane crash that killed Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin in August, Putin said investigators found hand grenade fragments in the remains of victims from the crash and said investigators found “no external influence” downed the plane.  He added that the probe into the crash is ongoing.  Ukraine and the U.S. have suggested Russia was behind the crash.  Moscow denies any involvement.  Barron’s CNN Reuters

Russia Planning Naval Base in Georgia’s Breakaway Region of Abkhazia.  Russia has signed a deal to establish a permanent naval base in Georgia’s breakaway region of Abkhazia.  The Russia-backed region’s leader, Aslan Bzahnia, told Russian media that the base will be located in the Ochamichra district and will increase the defensive capabilities of both Russia and Abkhazia.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov referred questions about the base to the Russian defense ministry and Abkhaz authorities did not respond further.  Georgia’s foreign ministry said the base would be a “flagrant violation of Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”  Analysts say the base raises the prospect of Russia launching attacks from Georgian territory and Ukrainian attacks targeting Georgian soil.  Experts added that Russia’s pursuit of a base in Abkhazia suggests it is looking for places to relocate Black Sea naval operations as Ukraine increasingly targets occupied Crimea.  The West accused Russia of effectively annexing Abkhazia and South Ossetia, another breakaway region, when Moscow recognized the regions as independent states and repelled a Georgian attempt to retake South Ossetia in 2008.  BBC Reuters 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN:

State-Backed Hacking Operations Growing Increasingly Sophisticated, Aggressive.  Microsoft published a report on Thursday describing the global cybersecurity landscape and highlighting how state-backed cyber operations have changed.  The report concludes that state-backed cyber actors are engaging in more sophisticated and aggressive operations and are increasingly pairing efforts to breach systems with information operations to spread propaganda.  The report’s findings on Iranian cyber operations demonstrates this trend, noting how Iranian cyber actors are comingling offensive cyber capabilities with influence campaigns to create geopolitical effects, especially in the Global South.  Microsoft’s researchers said the operations are part of a response to perceived efforts to foment unrest in Iran.  The report also found that government-backed spying and influence operations are shifting from high-profile cyberattacks to espionage.  This conclusion aligns with report from Ukrainian cyber authorities about how Russian cyber actors are increasingly turning to espionage and intelligence gathering, especially against law enforcement targets.  The report also notes the over 200% increase in human-operated ransomware incidents over the last year, pointing to more damaging attacks.  Additionally, the report found that while dwell time, or the time between a breach and when the breach is detected, has decreased, attackers are also acting more quickly in carrying out ransomware attacks.  Cyberscoop Microsoft

Chip Giants Pushing Back on U.S. Crackdown on Semiconductor Technology Sales to China.  Top U.S. chip companies — including Nvidia, Intel and Qualcomm — are pushing back against the Biden administration’s plans for more restrictions on the sale of semiconductor technology to China, saying that further cutting sales to China will ruin their businesses, which will impact plans to build new chip factories in the U.S.  Officials say the chipmakers are also warning that a U.S. crackdown could push China to develop an independent chip industry which could flood markets with Chinese-created chips that would compete with American-designed chips.  The resistance from the companies has delayed the rollout of new restrictions and narrowed the list of limits the Biden administration wants.  Some officials have criticized the pushback from the chipmakers, especially after the U.S. pledged $50 billion in support for the industry through the CHIPS and Science Act.  Experts say the tensions point to the challenge the Biden administration faces in balancing the economic interdependence of the U.S. and China with national security concerns.  New York Times

China Doubling Space Station as Alternative to ISS.  China is planning to double the size of its Tiangong space station from three modules to six in the coming years.  The expansion aims to offer an alternative platform for other nation’s astronauts to conduct near-Earth missions as the International Space Station (ISS) reaches the end of its lifespan.  The China Academy of Space Technology (CAST), a unit of China’s space contractor, added at the 74th International Congress in Baku, Azerbaijan that Tiangong’s operational lifetime will be over 15 years, marking an increase from the more than 10 years previously announced.  Tiangong has been operational since late 2022 and currently hosts a maximum of three astronauts.  The ISS is set to be decommissioned after 2030, when Beijing says it wants to become a “major space power.”  Reuters

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD:

Drone Attack on Syrian Military College Kills at Least 80.  A drone attack killed at least 80 people at a military academy in the central province of Homs, Syria on Thursday, according to Syria’s health minister.  The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said as many as 100 people were killed.  Syria’s defense ministry said both military personnel and civilians were killed in the attack, which it blamed on unspecified “terrorist” groups.  No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack.  Officials and the SOHR said weaponized drones bombed the academy minutes after the Syrian defense minister left a graduation ceremony there.  It was one of the deadliest attacks against a Syrian military installation and an unprecedented use of weaponized drones in the country.  Syria’s defense and foreign ministries vowed to respond “with full force.”  Syrian forces later conducted heavy bombing attacks on the opposition-held zone of Idlib.  Al Jazeera BBC Reuters

Somali Forces and Al Shabaab Militants Killed in Forest Combat.  A Somali army officer and a clan leader report that at least 30 pro-government fighters and dozens of al Shabaab militants were killed in intense fighting in the Shabellow forest on Wednesday.  The clashes were reportedly some of the bloodiest fighting in Somalia’s year-long offensive against the al Qaeda-linked group.  Reuters

Bangladesh Receives First Russian Uranium for Nuclear Power Plant.  Bangladesh received its first shipment of uranium fuel for Russia on Thursday for its debut nuclear power plant.  The facility is the first of two nuclear power plants that Bangladesh is building in collaboration with Russian state-owned atomic company Rosatom.  Ninety nine percent of the project is being financed through a Russian loan repayable within 28 years with a 10-year grace period.  Construction of the plant has been delayed due to the Covid-19 pandemic and sanctions on Russia over its war in Ukraine.  The first unit of the plant was set to start operation in July but is facing setbacks related to loan repayments.  Associated Press France 24 Reuters

The data cut-off for this product was 4:00p.m. E.T.

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