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5:30 PM ET, Monday, October 16, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

ISRAEL HAMAS WAR

Egypt Says Rafah Crossing Inoperable Due to Israeli Air Strikes.  Egypt says that the Rafah crossing with Gaza is not officially closed yet has been made almost entirely inoperable due to Israeli air strikes on the Gaza side.  Tons of humanitarian aid is reportedly stuck on the Egyptian side waiting to be transferred through the crossing into Gaza.  Egypt has accused Israel of not cooperating on opening the crossing.  U.S. officials had earlier said they hoped that Rafah would operate for a few hours late on Monday, noting that earlier hopes for opening the crossing had been dashed.  Al Jazeera Reuters Stratfor

Israeli Domestic Intelligence Chief Says Agency Failed in Preventing Hamas Attack.  Ronen Bar, the head of Israel’s Shin Bet domestic intelligence agency, took responsibility for failing to stop the Hamas attacks on Israel.  He said that despite certain actions by Shin Bet, it was “unable to generate sufficient warning” ahead of the attacks.  He added that investigations on the intelligence failure will take place in the future since for now, Israel’s security forces and intelligence are focused on the fight against Hamas.  Reuters Times of Israel

Iran Warns of Imminent ‘Preemptive Action.’  Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said on Iranian state TV that a “resistance front” capable of a “long-term war” with Israel will take a “preemptive action” in the next few hours.  He did not elaborate, saying only that Tehran “cannot be indifferent” to Israeli “war crimes” in the Gaza Strip.  Iran has said it was not involved in the attacks by Hamas, which is supported by Tehran.  However, the Iranian government has warned of regional escalation if Israel launches a ground offensive into Gaza.  Reuters

E.U. Launching Humanitarian Air Bridge to Gaza.  The European Union announced Monday that it will launch a humanitarian air bridge corridor to bring supplies to humanitarian organizations in Gaza.  The bloc said the first two flights will take place this week, sending UNICEF supplies like shelter items and medicine to Gaza.  European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters that the delivery of aid is vital since Palestinians in Gaza are in need and “cannot pay the price of Hamas' barbarism.”  The announcement about the flights comes as efforts to arrange a ceasefire to let aid reach the Gaza Strip have fallen through.  Reuters European Commission

Germany’s Scholz Visiting Israel. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will visit Israel on Tuesday and then make a trip to Egypt after.  Scholz will leave for the region after meeting with Jordan’s King Abdullah in Berlin.  Scholz said his trip will both demonstrate Germany’s solidarity with Israel and provide an opportunity for engagement aimed at preventing the conflict from spreading.  Western nations have been focused on ensuring the conflict in Israel does not escalate and spread across the region.  There is particular concern about Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which has been exchanging fire with Israeli forces on the Israel-Lebanon border in recent days.  Reuters Times of Israel

U.N. Security Council to Vote on Rival Resolutions on Israel and Gaza. The United Nations Security Council was due to vote on Monday on rival draft resolutions on Israel and Gaza that focus on the humanitarian situation.  The draft texts have been submitted by Russia and Brazil.  Russia’s draft calls for a humanitarian ceasefire and Brazil’s calls for humanitarian pauses to allow access to aid.  Both drafts have condemned the violence against civilians and called for the release of hostages.  The Brazilian draft condemns the Palestinian militant group Hamas for its attacks on Israel, while the Russian draft does not mention Hamas.  Israeli forces kept up their bombardment of Gaza on Monday after diplomatic efforts to arrange a ceasefire, aimed at allowing the transfer of aid to Gaza and letting foreign passport holders leave the territory, failed.  Reuters

Putin Speaks with Netanyahu, Other Middle East Leaders. Russian President Vladimir Putin entered the diplomatic fray regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict on Monday.  The Kremlin said Putin spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and said he wanted to help prevent a humanitarian disaster in Gaza and find a diplomatic solution to end fighting.  The Kremlin readout of the call did not mention Russia’s resolution in the U.N. Security Council calling for a ceasefire.  The readout did say that Putin briefed Netanyahu on earlier calls he had with leaders of Iran, Egypt, Syria and the Palestinian Authority.  Russia is trying to cast itself as a mediator and voice of restraint in the Middle East amid the Israel-Hamas conflict.  Moscow has also blamed the violence on Western, and specifically U.S., policy failures.  Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine Says Russia Focused on Ukrainian Defenses in Northeast.  General Oleksandr Syrski, commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, said Russia is aiming to break through Ukrainian defenses on the frontline in northeastern Ukraine to recapture territory liberated by Ukrainian forces.  Syrski’s assessment came at a meeting with troops posted on Telegram, where he said the fighting in the northeastern Kupiansk-Lyman sector had “significantly escalated.”  Ukrainian forces had recaptured the city of Kupiansk and the surrounding areas nearly a year ago, but Russian forces have gone on the attack in the region once again.  Elsewhere, Russia has launched a dayslong offensive around Avdiivka, a strategically important town located in the northern Donetsk region.  Reuters

U.S. Treasury Secretary Reiterates Ukraine Support Still a ‘Top Priority.’  U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen said Monday that support for Ukraine remains a “top priority” for the West.  She also reiterated that the Biden administration was committed to Ukraine for “as long as it takes” and would fight to ensure Congress passes “robust” and uninterrupted aid to Ukraine.  She highlighted the importance of ensuring Ukraine doesn’t “lose the war for economic reasons” since it has proven it can “succeed on the battlefield.”  These comments come as Yellen met with the Eurogroup eurozone finance ministers and as the Biden administration prepares to push through an aid package for Ukraine and Israel worth over $2 billion.  Reuters

Qatar Reportedly Helped Repatriate Ukrainian Children from Russia.  A Qatari official told reporters on Monday that Doha is helping four Ukrainian children return home from Russia this week under a mechanism that Qatar hopes will see the return of more children in the future.

The children were reportedly received by diplomats at Qatar’s mission in Moscow who are facilitating their return home.  Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, confirmed the repatriation of the children, saying, ““We are bringing home four Ukrainian children illegally deported to the Russian Federation.”  Kyiv claims that approximately 20,000 children have been taken to Russia without the consent of Ukrainian families or guardians since the start of the war, calling it a war crime of “unlawful transfer of population from occupied areas.”  Moscow denies this accusation and has said that it protected children from war zones.  Al Jazeera Reuters  

Ukraine Says 20 Russian FSB Officers Backed EuroMaidan Revolution Crackdown.  The Ukrainian State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) reported Monday that it had charged 20 officers of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) for aiding former Ukrainian President Vikor Yanukovych in suppressing the EuroMaidan Revolution. Those charged include Vikor Zolotov, the former head of the Security Service of the President of the Russian Federation and current commander of Russia’s National Guard. Additionally, three former senior officials of the Security Services of Ukraine (SBU) were also charged.  According to the investigations, Russian officers were present in Kyiv between December 13-15, 2013 and assisted Yanukovych in discrediting the EuroMaidan protesters.  DBR emphasized that this investigation proved the influence of Russia’s security services on the former leadership and FSB’s subversive acts against Ukraine.  Kyiv Independent 

CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

New Round of U.S. AI Chip Restrictions on Exports to China Expected This Week.  New U.S. rules governing exports of AI chips will be added to existing controls that limit supplies of advanced chips and equipment to China.  The additional controls are expected to be announced this week and will expand the technical parameters for AI chips impacted by restrictions and require chip manufacturers to report the shipment of other specified chips.  In response to prior controls, Nvidia released chip versions for the China market that met U.S. specifications.  The expected expanded guidelines to manufacturers will restrict certain advanced datacenter AI chips not currently covered, according to a the U.S. official.  It has been reported that Nvidia’s H800 Chinese market variant is among the chips the U.S. plans to block.  The export control updates will also cover future evolutions of AI chip technology.  Companies will be required to report the export of semiconductors that perform at just below current specifications before they are shipped.  The new rules may also take aim at a loophole allowing Chinese companies access to U.S. AI chips through subsidiaries located in foreign countries.  A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Monday that China opposes “the US politicizing, instrumentalizing and weaponizing trade and tech issues,“ adding that Beijing “will continue to monitor the developments, and firmly safeguard our rights and interests.”  Reuters South China Morning Post Bloomberg

Popular Israeli Missile Alert Android App Spoofed with Bogus Spyware Version.  An unidentified threat actor is targeting users of Israel’s “RedAlert” missile attack warning app with a malicious version of the popular alert service.  The tainted version offers the same functions as the “RedAlert – Rocket Alerts” app but operates spyware in the background.  The app has become a popular download from the Google Play store as timely and location-specific information about rocket attacks becomes ever more important.  Cloudfare researchers report that hackers of unknown origin exploited public interest to circulate a fake version of the app from the “redalerts[.]me” website, which was created several days after the Hamas attack.  The website offered downloads of the app for the iOS and Android platforms, with the Android option directly downloading an APK file providing alert functions but also requesting access to user contacts, numbers, SMS content, list of installed software, call logs, logged-in email and app accounts, and other data.  The malware triggers a background service that abuses these permissions to collect data, encrypt it with AES in CBC mode, and upload it to a hardcoded IP address.  Cloudfare reports that the fake site is now offline but that its operators probably will shift to a new domain.  BleepingComputer

Threat Actor Offers Personal Data on Israeli Defense, Security Personnel on Dark Web.  A threat actor identified as “blackfield” has been attempting to sell data about members of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and the Israel Security Agency (ISA) on a dark web forum.  The database reportedly contains personal information, images, and social media links for IDF and ISA personnel and is being offered through the RAMP site, a Russian-speaking cybercriminal forum.  The ZeroFox cybersecurity company reports that “blackfield” is offering the database for $15,000 and is probably aiming the sale at “geopolitically incentivized parties.”  Researchers described the asking price as above average for this amount of data, which probably was acquired through credential stuffing attacks against social media profiles.  ZeroFox noted that another threat actor on the forum dubbed “achillesec” has expressed an interest in the compromised data.  Cybernews

UN Body Launches AI-Enabled Analysis Project on Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.  The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) is turning to an AI application called “Palestine-Israel Virtual Outlook Tool” to help it gain insights into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.  Developed by the CulturePulse firm based in Slovakia, the UNDP is embarking on a five-month trial with the company to create “computational models of causal dynamics in the Palestine-Israel socio-ecological system.”  The project plan will test potential interventions by way of digital simulations before progressing to applications “in the real world.”  CulturePulse CEO Dr Justin Lane, who will lead the project with Prof. LeRon Shults of the Institute for Global Development and Social Planning, expressed optimism that the AI project can support conflict resolution in the long term.  Explaining that extremists experience what he called “identity fusion” often resulting from being victimized by terrorism themselves, Lane said that “AI modeling helps us to uncover the findings about the issue of identity fusion and extremism.”  He went on to explain that CulturePulse’s system “is uniquely capable of figuring out what the beliefs an individual holds in comparison to their social group,” which in turn can help identify the roots of radicalization, whether it is caused by outside influences or results from the effects of identity fusion, “when you're so tied to a social group that you're willing to fight and die for them.”  The AI conflict tracking application that he and Shuts have developed, Lane said, “understands these core issues of social and personal identities” and can lead to the crafting of messages “that can strategically address issues of extremism.”  Cybernews


ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

U.S. Reportedly Set to Ease Venezuela Oil Sanctions for Freer Elections.  The Biden administration has reportedly agreed to ease U.S. sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry in exchange for Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s government committing to holding a freer presidential election in 2024.  Sources said that under the agreement, Maduro’s government must first commit to a presidential election date and lift bans on opposition candidates.  The U.S. will then provide limited sanctions relief on Venezuelan oil businesses.  Further easing of restrictions will depend on further concessions by Maduro towards organizing free and fair elections under international standards.  Maduro’s government is expected to make its first commitments for the sanctions deal at political negotiations between Venezuela’s government and opposition this week in Barbados.  The talks will be the first between the two sides in nearly a year.  The White House, U.S. State Department and Maduro’s government did not immediately comment on the reports.  Reuters Washington Post

Belgium Raises Terror Threat Level After Two Swedes Shot Dead in Brussels.  Belgian police report that two Swedish nationals were shot dead in Brussels ahead of a soccer match between Belgium and Sweden on Monday evening.  Belgium has raised its terror alert to the highest level in response.  A man claiming to be the gunman posted a video on social media saying that he was from Islamic State.  The potential perpetrator, who called himself Abdesalem Al Guilani, said he killed three people instead of two.  Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo confirmed the victims were Swedish but did not confirm how many were killed.  The killings  come amid heightened security concerns due to the Israel- conflict.  Reuters Associated Press

OPINION

Nuclear Testing Bans Have Made Us Forget the Horror of Nuclear War.  Cipher Brief Senior National Security Columnist Walter Pincus writes that nuclear test ban treaties — including the Limited Test Ban Treaty, which banned atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons in 1963, and the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty, which instituted a complete testing moratorium in 1992 — have had unintended perverse effects.  Without testing, the public has forgotten the destructive power of nuclear weapons, which were previously seen through both news coverage of tests and their human health impacts.  Pincus argues that art can be used as a substitute to remind the public today about nuclear horrors.  He highlights the movie “The Day After,” which portrays a U.S.-Soviet nuclear exchange, as an effective form of media for demonstrating the destructive consequences of using nuclear weapons.  Washington Post

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Afternoon Report for Monday, October 16, 2023

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