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5:30 PM ET, Friday, November 17, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:  

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Hamas Exploited Vulnerabilities in High-Tech Barrier Around Gaza in Attacks.  The Washington Post released a video detailing how Hamas exploited vulnerabilities on the “Iron Wall” barrier surrounding the Gaza Strip in their October 7 attack on Israel.  The video shows how Hamas exploited Israeli reliance on technology to secure the barrier, seen in the militant group’s take down of long-range cameras, sensors, and remote-control weapons to breach the fence.  Hamas reportedly called the tactic the “blinding plan.”  Washington Post 

Israel Letting More Aid into Gaza Amid U.N. Warnings.  Israel said on Friday that it will let fuel trucks enter Gaza and promised “no limitation” on further aid requested by the U.N. for the territory.  Israel also said it agreed to allow two truckloads of fuel into Gaza a day, or just under 37,000 gallons of fuel every two days, following requests by the U.S. for the fuel deliveries to help U.N. aid operations.  Israel had previously blocked fuel from Gaza over concerns that Hamas would use it for military purposes.  Israel has mentioned plans to set up field hospitals to treat wounded Gazans.  While Israel has promised to deliver aid to Gaza, its latest promises for more aid deliveries comes after U.N. agencies warned of rapidly deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Gaza, including a warning from the World Food Programme that Gazans face the “immediate possibility of starvation.”  In a potential sign that this has created divisions in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hardline cabinet, far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich criticized the decision, saying “it conveys weakness, it gives oxygen into the enemy.”  Israel still maintains that it will continue military operations in Gaza to eliminate Hamas.  Israeli military spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said Israeli forces “are determined to advance our operation… including in the south of the (Gaza) Strip.”  Hamas’s armed wing Qassam Brigades said it is fighting Israeli troops “from street to street” in Gaza.  Reuters The Guardian Al Jazeera

Bahrain Urges ‘Hostage Trade’ Between Israel and Hamas.  Bahrain’s Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa on Friday called for a “hostage trade” between Hamas and Israel to achieve a break in the fighting.  He said it is “time for straight talking” and that Hamas should release Israeli women and children it is holding hostage in Gaza with Israel releasing Palestinian women and children in Israeli prisons, who he called non-combatants, in exchange.  He said the exchange aims to allow a pause in fighting “so people can take stock, can bury their dead…. (and) finally start to grieve.”  He also said it would allow for a reflection on the “intelligence failure that led to this crisis in the first place.”  Prince Salman also highlighted red lines in the conflict — including the forced displacement of Palestinians, an Israeli reoccupation of Gaza, and a military threat from Gaza towards Israel — and emphasized the need for a two-state solution, which he said the U.S. is “indispensable” in helping to achieve.  Reuters 

Five Countries Jointly Request War Crimes Investigation in Palestinian Territories.  Five countries — South Africa, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Comoros and Djibouti — submitted a referral to the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate potential war crimes in the Palestinian territories.  ICC prosecutor Karim Khan said that his office is already conducting an investigation into the situation in the Palestinian territories, which began in March 2021 and is looking at possible crimes committed in Gaza and the West Bank since 2014.  Khan said that the investigation “extends” to violence since the Hamas attacks on October 7.  CNN Reuters Al Jazeera 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukrainian Energy Giant Calls for More AIr Defense Systems.  Maksym Timchenko, CEO of Ukraine’s largest private energy company DTEK, said on Friday that Ukraine needs more powerful air defense systems, like the Patriot and IRIS-T air defense systems, to better protect power facilities and other critical infrastructure from Russian attacks in the upcoming winter months.  Timchenko said that while DTEK is ready to respond to Russian assaults, “we cannot protect ourselves against ballistic missiles if we don’t have air defense systems.”  Reuters reports that all 13 of DTEK’s power stations, which service over seven million Ukrainian families, have been hit by Russian attacks.  Since April, eight of the 13 have been repaired and are operational, while another two are still being repaired.  Timchenko said about half of DTEK’s 2.4-gigawatt capacity has been destroyed, damaged, or is in Russian-occupied areas.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has likewise called for more air defenses.  However, while he said that he “does not believe that Russia will use fewer weapons” in its attacks compared to last winter, he asserted that Ukraine is now better prepared than last year.  Kyiv Independent Reuters

Zelensky says Kremlin Plotting Ukraine Destabilization Campaign, Potential Coup.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on Thursday that Russia is plotting a destabilization campaign against UKraine that he referred to as “Madian 3.”  Citing assessments from Ukrainian intelligence and information from Western countries, Zelensky said Maidan is aimed at sowing domestic dissent and chaos in Ukraine and ultimately fomenting a coup against his government.  Zelensky did not provide specific evidence in his assertion.  Maidan refers to the 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution that led to the ousting of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych.  That protest culminated on Kyiv’s Independence Square, known in Ukrainian as Maidan Nezalezhnosti.  The term Maidan came from the 2004 Orange Revolution that prevented Yanukovych from becoming president in his first run for office, which also primarily played out at the square.  Kyiv Independent Kyiv Post RFE/RL

Zelensky says Artillery Munitions Deliveries to Ukraine Decreased Since Israel-hamas War.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Thursday that the supply of Western artillery shells to Ukraine has decreased since the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict.  Zelensky highlighted that the delivery of critical 155mm artillery shells has “really slowed down.”  Zelensky said the U.S. has not formally said it would slow the flow of artillery munitions to Ukraine, describing the development as expected, saying “everyone is fighting for (stockpiles) themselves.”  Western officials have sought to reassure Kyiv that support for Israel will not impact aid for Ukraine, though there have been some signals of initial strains.  Axios reported on October 19 that Israeli officials said 155mm shells originally earmarked for Ukraine were being redirected to Israel.  E.U. foreign policy chief said last week that “the crisis in the Middle East is already having a lasting impact on our policy in Ukraine.”  Kyiv Independent 

Ukraine, U.S. to Hold Military Industrial Conference.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Friday that Ukraine and the U.S. will hold a military industrial conference in December.  He did not say where the conference will take place, only saying that both slides are “actively progressing” on joint arms production efforts.  Ukraine is seeking to bolster its domestic defense industry, in part through joint ventures with international arms makers, amid concerns about future military aid from the West.  In October, Ukraine and German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall AG agreed to a joint defense venture to service and repair Western weapons given to Ukraine.  In September, Ukraine hosted an international defense industry forum that over 250 Western weapons producers attended.  Reuters

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Lockbit Ransomware Gang Claims Hack of More U.S. Financial Firms.  The Lockbit ransomware gang claimed responsibility for attacks on the U.S. financial firms Chicago Trading Company (CTC) and Alphadyne Asset Management.  Lockbit said it gave the companies deadlines to pay ransoms of an unspecified amount and is threatening to publish stolen data if its demands are not met.  Alphadyne did not comment on the matter.  Sources say CTC was hacked at the end of October.  A representative of CTC said the firm’s operations were not affected and that “there was never any ransomware.”  However, the spokesperson also said the company is working with law enforcement on boosting the security of its networks.  It is unclear if the hacks are related to Lockbit’s recent attack on the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd.  Bloomberg

OpenAI Board Ousts CEO Sam Altman.  OpenAI, the parent company of the chatbot ChatGPT, fired its CEO and founder, Sam Altman, on Friday.  OpenAI’s board said it lost confidence in his ability to continue leading the company, saying that a review process concluded “he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities.”  OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati will serve as interim CEO.  Altman has been a key figure in shaping U.S. policy on artificial intelligence (AI).  He has pushed Congress to pass legislation minimizing risks from the new technology, specifically calling for license regimes on companies developing frontier AI models.  CNN New York Times Politico Washington Post Wall Street Journal 

U.S. and China Agree to Revisit Major Science and Technology Pact.  President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping have reportedly agreed to start negotiations on renewing a decades-old science and technology agreement (STA).  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced the decision after Biden and Xi’s meeting on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco.  The STA was the first major agreement between the U.S. and China when they first established relations in 1979.  It was set to expire in August but was extended by Washington for six months to allow for time to “renegotiate the deal” to address concerns about research reciprocity and military use of technologies.  South China Morning Post

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

Erdogan Visiting Germany.  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is in Germany for a tense visit amid the Israel-Hamas war.  Turkey has clashed with fellow NATO members over the conflict, calling Israel a “terror state” and saying Western countries, including Germany, are supporting the Israeli military’s “massacres” in Gaza.  He has also called Hamas “resistance fighters.”  In a joint new conference, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized Israel’s right to defend itself, saying Berlin’s “solidarity with Israel is not up for discussion.”  Erdogan said Turkey doesn’t “owe anything to Israel, so we can speak freely,” referring to the Holocaust.  Scholz’s spokesman said Germany and Turkey have always been “uncomfortable partners,” with Berlin long criticizing Erdogan’s clampdown on domestic dissent while also recognizing Ankara’s role in resolving key issues.  Erdogan and Scholz reportedly also discussed the Black Sea grain exports and migration.  Turkey is currently seeking improvements to its customs union with the E.U., as well as 40 Eurofighter Typhoon jets, which co-manufacturer Germany has not approved.  Al Jazeera ​Times of Israel 

Bulgarian Defense Minister Warns of Impact of Russian Disinformation.  Bulgarian Defense Minister Todor Tagarev warned that pro-Russian disinformation in Bulgaria is starting to “seriously affect the country’s ability to fight.”  The campaign is facilitated through pro-Russian opposition parties spreading disinformation alleging that Bulgaria’s support for Ukraine will lead to a direct military conflict with Russia.  Tagarev said the disinformation campaign is spreading fear among young men, discouraging them from entering the military.  He highlighted that the number of applicants to join Bulgaria’s military academies has dropped by 35% since the start of the Ukraine war and that there are currently 6,000 vacancies for military positions.  Tagarev emphasized that backing Kyiv is important since “Ukraine is protecting Europe from the Kremlin” by resisting Russia.  Bulgaria has grown increasingly supportive of Ukraine throughout the war, but pro-Russian voices remain.  Kyiv Independent 

World Court Says Azerbaijan Must Allow Ethnic Armenians Back to Nagorno-Karabakh.  The World Court on Friday ordered Azerbaijan to let ethnic Armenians who fled Nagorno-Karabakh when Azerbaijan took control of the region in September return and ensure their safety.  Azerbaijan’s seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh, which was controlled by its ethnic Armenian majority despite being internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, prompted the exodus of most of the region’s 120,000 ethnic Armenians to Armenia.  Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry said it has already promised to ensure the safety of all residents of Nagorno-Karabakh and that it has not forced ethnic Armenians to leave the region.  Armenia and Azerbaijan have competing legal disputes over the region at the International Criminal Court.  Both sides accuse the other of violating a U.N. anti-discriminatory treaty.  Reuters 

U.S. Convicts Two Men for Attempting to Sell Iranian Petroleum.  The U.S. Department of Justice said on Friday that a U.S. jury convicted two Texas men of trying to sell Iranian petroleum in violation of U.S. sanctions and conspiracy to commit money laundering.  The department said the pair sought to purchase petroleum from Iran, mask its origins, and sell it to a refinery in China.  The two men each face a maximum penalty of 45 years in prison.  Attorneys for the two men, one of whom was president of a Texas-based company that sells oil and gas mineral rights to investment funds and private equity groups, did not respond to requests for comment.  China is a major importer of Iranian oil despite U.S. sanctions on Tehran’s petroleum exports.  Reuters U.S. Department of Justice

Vietnam Increasing Island Expansion in South China Sea.  The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reports that Vietnam is accelerating its dredging and landfill activities in the Spratly Islands, having created another 330 acres of land at the disputed islands since December 2022.  The expansion was the most noticeable at Barque Canada Reef, called Bai Thuyen Chai by Vietnam, where 210 acres of land was created in the last year, according to satellite imagery.  The report said Vietnam has started using cutter suction dredgers to “accelerate its dredging efforts” and expanded dredging activities at South Reef and Central Reef.  Vietnam has yet to construct infrastructure on the island expansions.  The expansion marks a significant increase from the 120 acres Vietnam created at the Spratlys between 2012 and 2022 and makes Vietnam the second behind China in island building in the area.  CSIS reports that China created over 3,200 acres of land from 2013 to 2016 in the area.  Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not comment on the report.  Reuters CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative

The data cutoff for this product was 4:00p.m. E.T.

Ethan Masucol contributed to this report. 

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