Report for Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Report for Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Leaked report says U.S. airstrikes may have set back Iran’s nuclear program only months

FBI shifting focus from immigration to terrorism amid Mideast Tension

Trump agrees to meeting with Zelensky

FBI Cyber leader warns that China’s ‘Typhoons’ remain threat amid mideast conflict

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Can Europe Really Defend Itself?As NATO leaders meet in The Hague, Europe faces growing pressure to defend itself amid doubts about the continued U.S. commitment. Since President Donald Trump’s re-election, the U.S. has distanced itself from NATO, prompting European allies to dramatically increase their defense spending, adopting a new target of 5% of GDP, up from 2%. While European militaries are beginning to adapt, including Germany's pledge to build the strongest conventional force and Poland nearing the 5% benchmark, experts warn that Europe still heavily depends on the U.S. for high-end military capabilities such as strategic airlift, intelligence, and missile defense systems. Trump’s statements and policy shifts have triggered urgent recalibrations across Europe. Initiatives include a €150 billion European Union defense fund, increased NATO exercises, and the Baltic states' exit from landmine treaties. However, logistical, political, and industrial barriers remain. Experts argue that it could take decades and nearly $1 trillion for Europe to match the U.S. military's support. Nonetheless, there is growing consensus that Europe must—and is beginning to—stand on its own.The Cipher Brief

Opinion: NATO’s Critical 1.5 Percent. Rear Adm. (Ret.) Mark Montgomery and Annie Fixler of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies argue that NATO’s proposed 1.5% of GDP spending on defense-related infrastructure and cybersecurity is as vital as the 3.5% traditional military spending target. They emphasize that military readiness relies on strong civilian infrastructure — power grids, transportation networks, and communications systems — which adversaries like Russia and China deliberately target through cyber operations. Montgomery and Fixler warn that without this dedicated spending, NATO’s ability to project force and sustain operations could be crippled in a crisis. They call for European governments to align national infrastructure priorities with NATO's operational needs, fund cybersecurity upgrades for vulnerable civilian operators, and eliminate Chinese-made components that pose systemic risks. Ultimately, they stress that tanks and planes are ineffective if critical infrastructure fails, making the 1.5% investment indispensable for genuine readiness. The Cipher Brief

Opinion: Could Iran's Judiciary Chief Be the Next Supreme Leader? Former Central Intelligence Agency senior analyst Steven R. Ward argues that Gholam-Hoseyn Mohseni-Ejei, Iran’s judiciary chief and former intelligence minister, is a strong contender to succeed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. With President Ebrahim Raisi dead and Khamenei's son sidelined, Mohseni-Ejei's deep roots in Iran’s intelligence and judiciary apparatus make him a pragmatic choice to preserve the Islamic Republic. Ward emphasizes Mohseni-Ejei’s operational credentials: decades of service in the intelligence-judiciary axis, close ties with key regime figures like Esmail Khatib, and loyalty to Khamenei. As Iran faces war, internal unrest, and economic failure, the regime increasingly values security expertise over religious stature. Mohseni-Ejei’s role in suppressing dissent, including during the 2009 Green Movement and 2022 hijab protests, reinforces his standing. Ward concludes that in a system prioritizing loyalty and control, Mohseni-Ejei may be the chosen successor to steer Iran through threats. The Cipher Brief

Opinion: Was Everyone Wrong About Iran’s Nuclear Program?Dr. Clément Renault of the French Institute for Strategic Research questions the intelligence rationale behind Israel’s massive airstrike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure—Operation Rising Lion. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Iran was months away from building a nuclear weapon. Yet, Renault highlights that this assessment contradicted long-held conclusions by the U.S. intelligence community and the International Atomic Energy Agency, which maintained that Iran had not decided to weaponize its nuclear program. Renault argues that either Israel and the U.S. uncovered game-changing intelligence—missed by every major agency—or the justification was built on politicized intelligence, echoing the pre-Iraq War narrative of 2003. He details Mossad’s covert sabotage efforts and the precision of Israeli strikes as evidence of operational brilliance, but warns that these tactical successes may have obscured a strategic manipulation of threat perception. Renault ultimately raises deep concerns about the credibility and politicization of Western intelligence.The Cipher Brief

ISRAEL- IRAN CONFLICT

Iran-Israel ceasefire holds, Trump envoy says talks with Iran 'promising.' A U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran appeared to be holding on Wednesday, following 12 days of intense conflict. Both nations declared victory, with Israel claiming to have killed Iran’s top military and nuclear leadership, and Iran touting its missile response as a success. Iranian authorities said 610 people were killed and nearly 5,000 injured in Iran; 28 people were killed in Israel. The U.S. joined two days before the ceasefire, targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities with bunker-busting bombs. President Donald Trump declared Iran’s nuclear program "obliterated," though U.S. intelligence suggested the damage may be limited. Despite harsh rhetoric, Trump ruled out regime change, seeking regional stability. Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, said late Tuesday that talks between the United States and Iran were "promising" and that Washington was hopeful for a long-term peace deal. Meanwhile, internal fallout in Iran included executions, arrests, and speculation over Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s succession. Israel and Iran remain cautious, but signs of tentative diplomacy have emerged, with Iran signaling openness to resolving differences with the U.S. and regional powers. Reuters

Leaked report says U.S. airstrikes may have set back Iran’s nuclear program only months. A preliminary classified assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) found that U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities—part of Operation Midnight Hammer—only delayed Tehran’s nuclear program by a few months, not “obliterated” it as President Donald Trump claimed. While the strikes damaged surface infrastructure and sealed some tunnel entrances, they failed to destroy Iran’s deeply buried nuclear facilities, and much of Iran’s enriched uranium was reportedly relocated beforehand. This finding contradicts public statements by Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who assert the operation crippled Iran’s nuclear capacity. The White House dismissed the DIA report as false and politically motivated. The gap between intelligence assessments and political claims raises serious concerns about the potential politicization of intelligence. If Iran retains enrichment capability and covert facilities, the strike may provoke escalation without neutralizing the core threat. Allies and lawmakers are pressing for transparency. ReutersReutersWall Street JournalNew York TimesCNN

THE AMERICAS

FBI shifting focus from immigration to terrorism amid Mideast Tension. The FBI is shifting focus from immigration enforcement back to counterterrorism amid heightened concerns of retaliation following U.S. airstrikes on Iran. On Monday, FBI Director Kash Patel warned of increased risks from lone attackers, sleeper cells, and foreign-backed plots, emphasizing the need to protect U.S. communities. A new Department of Homeland Security bulletin also flagged a “heightened threat environment” tied to Middle East tensions and the “lingering fallout” from the 2020 killing of Qassem Soleimani. The FBI had recently redirected agents to immigration raids as part of the Trump administration’s aggressive deportation push. Though the FBI hasn’t officially reversed this shift, Patel said terrorism tracking is now the top priority, particularly identifying suspected terrorists allegedly allowed into the U.S. The Bureau could potentially transfer thousands of agents away from immigration, to concentrate on cyber threats and counterterrorism. Patel also called on local law enforcement to help detect threats at the community level. BloombergNBC NewsABC NewsBBC

Trump Administration Restaffs National Security Council After Cutting Its Size.The White House is rehiring staff for the National Security Council (NSC) just weeks after President Trump drastically downsized it. The move, led by Secretary of State and acting National Security Adviser Marco Rubio, is part of a broader restructuring rather than a direct reaction to recent global crises. Still, it comes as Washington faces mounting foreign-policy challenges, including tensions with China, continued conflict in Gaza, fallout from strikes on Iran, and the war in Ukraine. Earlier this year, the Trump administration cut much of the NSC staff, aiming to reduce its influence on policy-making and focus it solely on implementing Trump’s directives. The downsizing was also spurred by loyalty concerns. The NSC, established in 1947, has traditionally advised presidents across a wide range of issues but has been sidelined in Trump’s second term in favor of personal allies. Bloomberg

Rage and mistrust course through Congress on Iran. Democrats are deeply skeptical of President Trump’s claims that U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities were fully successful, after media reports suggested the damage may have been overstated, fueling mistrust between the White House and Congress. Lawmakers have criticized the administration for postponing a classified briefing and failing to adequately inform them about the operation. Senators like Chuck Schumer voiced concerns about misrepresented intelligence, drawing parallels to the lead-up to the Iraq War. Sen. Chris Van Hollen expressed worries about the administration “distorting, manipulating and even lying about intelligence.” Democrats were excluded from early briefings that Republican lawmakers received and remain frustrated by delays in their scheduled updates. As doubts grow, Senator Tim Kaine is pushing a war powers resolution to formally challenge the president’s authority and hold him accountable for bypassing Congress in military decisions. Axios

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russian attack on Dnipro kills at least 18, injures almost 300.Russia launched one of its deadliest strikes of the war early Tuesday, hitting Ukraine’s industrial city of Dnipro with ballistic missiles, killing at least 18 and injuring 300, including 27 children. The attack damaged residential areas, schools, hospitals, and a passenger train. Nearby Samarske was also hit, adding to the civilian toll. Russia’s summer offensive, marked by intensified drone and missile attacks, has escalated since May. Compounding Ukraine’s vulnerability, the U.S. redeployed some aerial defenses to the Middle East amid the Iran-Israel conflict. At the NATO summit in The Hague, President Volodymyr Zelensky urged allies to tighten sanctions, warning that Russia relies on foreign components to sustain its missile production and military aggression. Kyiv IndependentPolitico EU

Trump agrees to meeting with Zelensky. President Donald Trump is set to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday during the NATO summit. Speaking at a press briefing at The Hague on Wednesday, Trump was asked by a reporter what he would be discussing during the meeting with Zelensky. "Obviously we'll be discussing his difficulties, he's got a little difficulty," Trump replied. "Zelensky is a nice guy, I'm going to meet him today. I don't know, I assume we're going to be discussing Ukraine. It seems the most likely.” Earlier this month, Zelensky traveled to the G7 summit in Canada, hoping to meet Trump, who left early without a meeting. On Tuesday, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he would “probably” meet with Zelensky. Their last in-person meeting was in April at the Vatican during Pope Francis’ funeral, following a tense Oval Office exchange in February. PoliticoKyiv Independent

Rubio says tougher sanctions on Russia might jeopardize peace talks. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Politico in an interview at the NATO summit that President Donald Trump will not immediately meet European leaders’ calls for new sanctions on Russia. Rubio explained that while Congress is preparing more sanctions, the administration wants to preserve diplomatic space for ceasefire talks with Moscow. Imposing harsher sanctions now, Rubio said, would signal that negotiations are effectively over: “If he does it, you’re almost admitting that this is not going to be negotiated anytime soon.” He added that Trump will act “at the right time and place” and is coordinating with Sen. Lindsey Graham on a bill to penalize trade with countries buying Russian energy if diplomacy fails. Rubio also noted that Russia believes it can secure its demands on the battlefield, a view Washington disputes. PoliticoVideo

How Russia prepares its strategic missile plant for ‘eternal war.’Russia has dramatically expanded its Votkinsk missile plant despite international sanctions, using Chinese, Taiwanese, and Belarusian equipment funneled through intermediaries. The plant, critical to both short-range Iskander and intercontinental missile production, tripled Iskander output in 2024 and is building a missile stockpile for prolonged war. Orders for ICBMs like Yars and Bulava—capable of striking U.S. cities—were issued shortly after the invasion of Ukraine. The plant added new buildings, recruited thousands, and acquired over 7,000 new machines, many from Chinese suppliers. Russia’s largest titanium producer also sources materials via China. The equipment, though used now for short-range missiles, is versatile and enables ICBM manufacturing. With over 10 Russian enterprises contributing to missile production, Votkinsk’s growth is part of a broader, long-term escalation. Despite sanctions, Russia is positioning itself for “eternal war” with an expanding arsenal that threatens Ukraine, Europe, and the U.S. alike. Kyiv Independent

Russian air defenses destroy dozens of Ukrainian drones, officials say. Russian officials reported intercepting and destroying over 40 Ukrainian drones in the Voronezh region and additional drones across Rostov, Belgorod, and Ulyanovsk on Tuesday. While no injuries were reported, drone strikes damaged a sports complex in Taganrog and a grain facility in Azov. Airports near the Volga River briefly closed due to the activity. Ukraine has increased drone attacks, including a recent operation targeting Russian bombers. Meanwhile, Russia continues heavy strikes on Ukrainian cities. Reuters

Drone debris found in Ukraine indicates Russia is using new technology from Iran. Ukrainian forces recently discovered debris from a new type of Russian drone containing advanced Iranian technology, including anti-jamming systems, AI-powered computing, and remote control capabilities. The drone, white and lacking typical Russian markings, bore labels consistent with Iranian manufacture. Experts believe it may have been sold by Iran to Russia for combat testing. Despite much of Russia’s Shahed drone production now being localized, key technologies—like anti-jamming units—still rely on Iranian supply, which may be disrupted by recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian facilities. Russia is also evolving its drone tactics, using altitude variation, swarming decoys, and upgraded tech to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses. As a result, drone strike effectiveness has increased, from 6% in late 2024 to as high as 50% on some nights in mid-2025. Yet analysts warn that Israeli strikes on Iran could hinder Russia’s access to critical components. The new Iranian-enhanced drone may mark a turning point in both technological escalation and Russia’s battlefield success. Associated Press

The Weapon That Terrorizes Ukrainians by Night. Russia’s long-range Shahed drones, based on Iranian designs but now domestically produced, have transformed nighttime warfare in Ukraine. These low-cost, mass-produced drones—coated in black—fly at 115 miles per hour and carry increasingly powerful, diversified warheads, including high-explosive, thermobaric, and tungsten-ball-laced charges. Their use has surged from 34 weekly launches in 2022 to over 1,000 per week by mid-2025. Built with foreign parts, including Western and Chinese components, they now feature enhanced GPS-jamming resistance and even Ukrainian SIM cards to navigate via cellular networks. Russia also deploys decoy drones like the “Gerbera” to confuse defenses. In response, Ukraine fields new drone-on-drone interceptors, such as those operated by the secretive Darknode unit. These Ukrainian drones cost only $6,000 and are piloted by gamers-turned-soldiers to destroy Shaheds over unpopulated areas. The accelerating technological arms race has made Shaheds a central, terrifying weapon in Russia’s evolving campaign of civilian-targeted psychological and physical warfare. New York Times

Ukraine to set up war tribunal with Council of Europe.Ukraine will establish a special war crimes tribunal with the Council of Europe to prosecute senior Russian officials for the crime of aggression related to the 2022 full-scale invasion. President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to sign the agreement with Alain Berset, chair of the Strasbourg-based human rights body. This marks the first such tribunal created by the CoE, operating independently of the European Court of Human Rights. It will target top Russian leaders, including the president, prime minister, and military commanders, holding them accountable for planning and executing the invasion. Unlike the International Criminal Court, which cannot prosecute for aggression, the tribunal can initiate cases even in the absence of the accused. Over 34,000 incidents of death, destruction, and displacement have been recorded to support future prosecutions. The court’s location has yet to be determined, but Ukraine will soon make legal and administrative preparations for its establishment. Financial Times

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, June 24. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned that Russia poses the greatest existential threat to NATO today and is preparing for a long-term war with the alliance, potentially ready to attack within three to seven years. The Kremlin is working to integrate troops from Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) allies under Russian command through a new protocol that enables rapid deployment and centralized control, thereby further enhancing Moscow’s military reach. Russian forces are increasingly relying on motorcycles for assault, transport, and reconnaissance operations along the Ukrainian front — a tactical innovation that may extend to future conflicts with NATO. Rutte also announced plans for NATO members to boost defense investments, including a five-fold increase in air defense and the development of Ukraine’s defense industrial base, aligning with U.S. efforts to shift more defense responsibility to Europe. European partners pledged major support to Ukraine at the NATO summit, including hundreds of millions of euros for drone procurement and joint production with the UK.

EUROPE

NATO summit commits to higher spending and collective defense. At the NATO summit in The Hague on Wednesday, alliance leaders committed to dramatically increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, responding to U.S. President Donald Trump’s pressure and growing concerns over Russia’s threat since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The 32-member bloc reaffirmed Article 5’s principle of collective defense despite Trump’s earlier comments casting doubt on its clarity. The new target splits spending between 3.5% for core defense and 1.5% for broader security infrastructure. Spain pushed back against the target, but a compromise was reached to maintain unity. The summit was intentionally short to avoid friction. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte emphasized there’s “no alternative” given the current threat landscape. Reuters

NATO chief Rutte defends Trump as the U.S. president seeks to reassure on mutual defense. At the NATO summit in The Hague on Tuesday, Secretary General Mark Rutte expressed full confidence in the U.S. commitment to NATO’s mutual defense clause despite President Trump’s ambiguous remarks suggesting there are “numerous” interpretations of Article 5. However, later, speaking to journalists before the summit opened, Trump downplayed concerns over his commitment to mutual defense among allies, saying, "We're with them all the way." The summit is focused on raising NATO’s defense target to 5% of GDP, sparking criticism from Spain and condemnation from Russia, which accused NATO of militarization and demonizing Moscow. President Volodymyr Zelensky warned NATO members of potential Russian attacks if Ukraine is not fully supported and urged expanded weapons support, particularly in drone and air defense systems. ReutersReuters

THE MIDDLE EAST

The war that will remake Iran’s Islamic republic. The recent war between Israel and Iran, though short of regime change, is expected to catalyze major transformations in Iran’s Islamic Republic. Despite declaring “victory,” Iran suffered devastating losses: key military figures were killed, air defenses were crippled, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei narrowly escaped Israeli assassination threats. Analysts believe this moment rivals the significance of the 1979 revolution. The regime, long resistant to reform, now faces mounting pressure to evolve, accelerated by both military trauma and internal discontent. Speculation surrounding Khamenei's succession has intensified, with the possibility of a shift from clerical to military leadership. While Iran’s core institutions endure, a more nationalistic and potentially pragmatic political structure is likely to emerge. Financial Times

Iran’s parliament greenlights bill suspending cooperation with UN nuclear watchdog. The Iranian parliament has approved a bill to suspend cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog (IAEA), pending final approval from the Supreme National Security Council. The decision follows recent Israeli airstrikes and U.S. bombings targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, actions the Islamic Republic claims were enabled by a recent IAEA resolution accusing Tehran of breaching non-proliferation obligations. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf criticized the IAEA for not condemning the attacks and announced plans to accelerate Iran’s civilian nuclear program. The bill would halt surveillance camera installations, inspections, and reporting to the IAEA. Iran insists its nuclear efforts are peaceful but has signaled a potential shift in its stance on the non-proliferation regime. Reuters Times of Israel

Iran hangs three men for spying for Israel. Iran executed three men on Wednesday for allegedly collaborating with Israel’s Mossad spy agency and smuggling equipment used in an unspecified assassination, according to the judiciary’s Mizan news agency. While details about the victim were not disclosed, the report stated the equipment had been instrumental in the killing. Iran has long accused Mossad of orchestrating sabotage and assassinations within its borders, particularly targeting its nuclear program. This latest execution continues a pattern of harsh crackdowns on individuals accused of aiding Israel amid the ongoing covert conflict between the two countries. ReutersTimes of Israel

Netanyahu sees redemption in Iran war, but Gaza looms large. After months of political turmoil and declining approval, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bold 12-day military campaign against Iran has potentially reshaped his legacy, and boosted his political standing. The strikes drew broad support among Jewish Israelis and shifted public focus away from the October 7 Hamas attack, which had severely damaged Netanyahu’s reputation. Some allies now frame that attack as a wake-up call that spurred decisive action against regional threats. Despite the boost, Netanyahu still faces mounting pressure to end the Gaza war, which has killed tens of thousands and drawn international condemnation. Critics accuse him of dragging out the conflict to avoid political fallout. While Netanyahu's Iran campaign earned rare U.S. military support from President Trump, his far-right coalition resists compromise, setting up tense negotiations over Gaza’s future, hostages, and potential elections. Reuters

How Netanyahu’s Move Against Iran Gives Him Room to Maneuver on Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has gained significant political momentum after launching strikes on Iran and persuading the U.S. to join in targeting its nuclear facilities. This success has boosted his popularity, giving him greater leverage to maneuver on Gaza policy. While he continues to demand Hamas’s surrender and exile before ending the war, analysts note that Netanyahu now has the political capital to shift course without risking his coalition's collapse. Some Israeli negotiators have been given expanded authority in cease-fire talks, suggesting flexibility. However, Netanyahu may delay major moves until parliament recesses in July to avoid triggering a no-confidence vote. Despite hardliner resistance and Hamas’s own demands, Netanyahu may now be better positioned to reach a truce — and potentially call early elections based on his perceived victory over Iran. Still, the durability of this political advantage depends on whether Israel’s military gains against Iran prove lasting or short-lived. New York Times

US to provide $30 million to Gaza aid operation, in spite of concerns over violence. The U.S. has granted $30 million to the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), marking its first direct financial support for the group delivering aid in Gaza. The funding, approved under a White House and State Department directive, bypassed typical audits and vetting procedures. GHF uses private U.S. logistics and military contractors to transport and distribute aid at so-called secure sites, some of which have been linked to recent violence. Since Israel partially lifted its blockade in May, over 400 Palestinians have died seeking aid, many shot or shelled near militarized distribution zones. Critics, including U.N. officials and some U.S. insiders, question GHF’s inexperience and its use of armed contractors. GHF defends its record, claiming it has securely delivered 40 million meals and is open to collaboration. Washington may approve further monthly funding. ReutersThe TelegraphAssociated Press

At least 40 more Palestinians killed seeking aid in Gaza, say medics and officials. Israeli forces killed at least 40 Palestinians in Gaza on Tuesday, shortly after a ceasefire was reached between Israel and Iran. Among the dead were 19 civilians seeking food aid at a U.S.-backed distribution site, with medics reporting gunfire as the cause. Gaza residents expressed frustration that the Iran truce excluded them, while deadly airstrikes and evacuations continued. Israel defended its actions, citing militant activity in civilian zones, though groups like Hamas deny using such cover. The controversial Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, through which Israel channels aid, has drawn United Nations criticism as unsafe and biased. Meanwhile, Hamas signaled openness to new ceasefire talks, but key differences remain: Hamas demands Israeli withdrawal and is willing to negotiate hostage releases, while Israel insists on Hamas’s disarmament and dismantling. The Gaza war began after the October 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel and has since claimed over 56,000 Palestinian lives, according to Gaza's health ministry. ReutersThe GuardianAustralian Broadcasting CorporationAssociated Press

Blast in Gaza kills 7 Israeli soldiers inside an armored vehicle. Seven Israeli soldiers were killed in Khan Younis, southern Gaza, when an explosive device detonated under their armored vehicle, marking one of the deadliest incidents for Israel in the war. Hamas’s Al-Qassam Brigades claimed responsibility, saying they used missiles and machine guns in an ambush. The overall Israeli military death toll since the war began on Oct. 7, 2023, now exceeds 860, including over 400 in Gaza. Meanwhile, Gaza’s Health Ministry reports 56,077 Palestinians killed, more than half women and children. Separately, a 66-year-old Palestinian woman was shot dead during an Israeli raid in East Jerusalem, further escalating tensions in the region. Associated PressReutersTimes of Israel

Merz rejects review of EU economic pact with Israel.German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has firmly rejected calls to suspend or reexamine the EU-Israel Association Agreement, despite an ongoing European Commission investigation into possible Israeli human rights violations in Gaza. Speaking in the Bundestag on Tuesday, Merz stated that terminating the agreement was “out of the question” for Germany. This puts Berlin at odds with countries like Spain and Ireland, which have pushed for an immediate suspension amid Gaza’s humanitarian crisis. Although Merz has criticized Israel’s Gaza offensive more strongly than past German leaders, he continues to back Israel, including its recent strikes on Iran. He did, however, call for a Gaza ceasefire and humane treatment of civilians. Politico EU

ASIA & OCEANIA

China Calls Them Fish Farms. South Korea Fears They Have Another Use. China's installation of large offshore structures in the Yellow Sea, which Beijing frames as fish farms, has alarmed Seoul amid fears they may serve dual civilian-military purposes. The structures, including repurposed oil rigs and giant steel cages, sit in a contested maritime zone and resemble tactics China has used in the South China Sea, where civilian outposts like artificial islands later became military installations. A Tuesday report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies supports these concerns, warning the platforms may already be collecting strategic data. South Korea's National Assembly has condemned the installations as threats to maritime safety, and tensions flared earlier this year when Chinese vessels blocked a South Korean survey ship. The standoff poses an early foreign policy test for President Lee Jae Myung. Lawmakers are urging countermeasures, including deploying aquaculture structures and boosting maritime surveillance. New York Times

Japan lodges protest with Beijing over new Chinese construction in East China Sea. China is accelerating the construction of offshore platforms for resource extraction and aquaculture in disputed maritime zones, prompting strong protests from Japan and South Korea. Japan recently lodged a protest after spotting a new Chinese structure in the contested East China Sea gas fields, with China rejecting concerns and claiming it operates within its sovereign rights. South Korea has also condemned similar platforms in the Yellow Sea, built despite a 2001 agreement prohibiting permanent construction there. Ongoing disputes are fueled by unresolved maritime boundaries, with Beijing using infrastructure to assert de facto control. Japan, concerned about Chinese patrols near the Senkaku Islands and increasing maritime militarization, is bolstering its defenses. Despite previous agreements, diplomatic talks over joint development or boundary resolution remain stalled. Bloomberg Reuters

China, Taiwan clash over history, Beijing says can't 'invade' what is already Chinese territory. China and Taiwan are locked in a heated dispute over historical narratives, sovereignty, and national identity. Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te has declared that the island is “of course a country,” rejecting China’s claim that it has historical or legal rights. In response, Chinese officials insist Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, citing post-WWII agreements like the Cairo and Potsdam Declarations. Beijing, which considers Lai a separatist, has ramped up military pressure, frequently flying warplanes near Taiwan. Chinese officials argue that any military action would not be an invasion, as Taipei is already Chinese territory. Taiwan's defense minister on Wednesday accused China of distorting history, asserting that the Republic of China led the anti-Japanese war effort, not the People's Republic. Reuters

Israel-Iran Conflict Spurs China to Reconsider Russian Gas Pipeline. The recent Israel-Iran conflict has revived Chinese interest in the long-stalled Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which would transport Russian natural gas to China. Previously delayed by disputes over pricing, ownership, and Beijing’s reluctance to over-rely on Russian energy, the project is gaining traction as China reassesses the reliability of gas imports from the Middle East, especially via the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz. The war highlighted risks to China’s LNG supply, much of which comes from the Gulf region. Moscow, in desperate need of new buyers after losing European markets, has pushed the pipeline to deepen ties with Beijing. China, balancing energy security and geopolitical interests, may now be more open to advancing the deal. However, significant hurdles remain, including pricing disagreements and China's demand for equity stakes. Even if approved, the pipeline would take at least five years to build. Wall Street Journal

Japan carries out first missile test on its own territory amid military buildup efforts. Japan conducted its first-ever domestic test of a missile on Tuesday, launching a Type 88 surface-to-ship missile from Hokkaido as part of its growing military buildup aimed at deterring China. The test marks a shift toward greater self-reliance in defense and comes amid rising concerns over Chinese and Russian military activities near Japanese waters. Historically, Tokyo conducted such tests abroad due to space and safety constraints. This move follows Japan’s 2022 security strategy overhaul, which identified China as its top strategic challenge and committed to closer U.S. ties and enhanced strike capabilities. Japan is now deploying long-range cruise missiles, including U.S.-made Tomahawks, and developing domestic missiles with significantly expanded range. Meanwhile, Japan plans to build a missile range on Minamitorishima island. Associated PressArmy RecognitionThe Defense PostEuronews

AFRICA

At least 120 children have been kidnapped by insurgents in Mozambique. In recent days, at least 120 children have been abducted in northern Mozambique by jihadist insurgents linked to the Islamic State, Human Rights Watch reported on Tuesday, highlighting a surge in kidnappings in the Cabo Delgado province. Islamist militant group al-Shabab has reportedly been using the children for forced labor, to transport looted goods, and in some cases, as child soldiers or forced brides. Mozambique has battled this insurgency since 2017, relying heavily on foreign military support. The conflict has displaced over 600,000 people and expanded into neighboring provinces. Human Rights Watch urged the government to step up efforts to locate the missing children and prevent further kidnappings. The crisis has been exacerbated by climate disasters, deepening hunger, and reduced foreign aid following U.S. funding cuts. The Norwegian Refugee Council described Cabo Delgado as a neglected emergency, with over 5 million people facing severe food insecurity. Associated Press

Over 40 people, including children, killed in brutal attack on Sudanese hospital. The World Health Organization has denounced a deadly attack on al-Mujlad hospital in Sudan’s West Kordofan province, which killed over 40 civilians, including six children and health workers. The hospital lies near the frontline of Sudan’s civil war between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which erupted in April 2023. The RSF blamed the Sudanese military for the hospital strike, calling it a violation of international law, while the army denied responsibility, asserting that it targets only legitimate military sites. The UN and UNICEF also condemned the violence, warning it hampers life-saving aid. The conflict has seen atrocities by both sides, and UN officials say the risk of genocide and war crimes remains high, particularly against non-Arab ethnic groups in Darfur. Over 12 million people have been displaced, tens of thousands killed, and more than 20 million are now in need of food aid. The GuardianReutersBBC

Funding crisis stalls UN probe into possible war crimes in Congo. A funding crisis in the U.N. human rights office (OHCHR), caused by unpaid contributions and U.S. aid cuts, has stalled a U.N. commission investigating suspected war crimes in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. The commission, approved in February to probe atrocities by Rwanda-backed M23 rebels in North and South Kivu, cannot proceed without $3.9 million in funding. Preliminary findings already indicate summary executions have been carried out, in addition to severe sexual violence, possibly constituting war crimes. OHCHR says its reserves are exhausted after allocating $1.1 million to a related fact-finding mission. Officials warn the delay undermines accountability and victims' justice. Reuters

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

FBI Cyber leader warns that China’s ‘Typhoons’ remain threat amid mideast conflict. Despite rising concerns over potential Iranian cyber retaliation following U.S. strikes, the FBI warns that China remains the most persistent and strategically damaging digital threat. Brett Leatherman, the new head of the Bureau’s Cyber Division, stressed that Chinese cyber activity often “unfolds in silence,” going unnoticed but accumulating significant long-term harm. He cautioned against complacency, noting that China’s goal is to quietly erode U.S. national security and economic advantage. While federal agencies remain alert for Iranian cyberattacks, China’s hacking groups—like Salt Typhoon—continue to target U.S. critical infrastructure, telecoms, and third-party vendors. Nine U.S. firms have been compromised so far, and Canadian telecom networks have also been breached. Leatherman said the intrusions are part of China’s strategy to gather intelligence and map infrastructure. Former cybersecurity official Chris Painter echoed the concern, highlighting China’s sustained capabilities and intent. The Record

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