Report for Monday, June 16, 2025

Report for Monday, June 16, 2025

• Iranian missiles hit Tel Aviv as Israel targets Iranian command centers as conflict expands
  
  
• Israel Takes Control of Iran’s Skies—a Feat That Still Eludes Russia in Ukraine
  
  
• Russia’s Summer Offensive in Ukraine Gains Ground With New Tactics
  
  
• Nations Head to G-7 Hoping to Reach Trade Deals With Trump
  
  
• US-China trade truce leaves military-use rare earth issue unresolved, sources say

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

The Attack that Knocked Back Iran’s Nuclear Program.In a Cipher Brief interview, Norm Roule—former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) and a 34-year Central Intelligence Agency veteran—analyzed the strategic implications of Israel’s recent strikes on Iran. Roule emphasized that Israel has demonstrated air superiority and intelligence dominance, highlighting Iran’s vulnerability. He noted that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, advanced centrifuges, and ICBM development now pose unprecedented threats. Roule explained that Iran’s retaliation options are limited due to leadership losses and degraded missile capabilities. Proxy responses from Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, or the Houthis are expected to remain minimal for now. He warned that further escalation could draw the U.S. into the conflict if Americans are harmed. Roule also outlined Israel’s strategic goals: either forcing Iran into a deal, weakening internal regime control, or deterring future nuclear ambitions. He stressed that the strikes may reshape regional power dynamics, potentially emboldening Gulf states and undermining Iran’s influence. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS

Nations Head to G-7 Hoping to Reach Trade Deals With Trump. At the 51st G7 Summit in Kananaskis, Canada, leaders including Japan, the EU, Canada, and Mexico are pressing President Trump for relief from his steel, aluminum, and auto tariffs. They hope that direct meetings will encourage him to ease trade barriers in exchange for concessions—ranging from increased military spending by Canada to expanded market access for U.S. businesses. While Trump has set a July 9 deadline for potential agreements and remained noncommittal about specific outcomes, negotiators are cautiously optimistic that momentum can be built. The summit emphasizes bilateral and small-group discussions, with no expectation of a traditional joint communiqué due to divisions among members. Wall Street Journal

'We knew everything,' Trump says about devastating Israeli strikes on Iran. President Donald Trump told Reuters on Friday that he had known about Israel’s plans to strike Iran, and had worked to prevent them by pushing for a nuclear deal. "We knew everything,” the president said, “and I tried to save Iran humiliation and death.” While urging Israel to delay military action, he ultimately praised the strikes as “excellent” and affirmed U.S. support. The strikes targeted Iran’s nuclear and long-range missile capabilities, and killed several of the country’s top military brass. Trump said he gave Iran 60 days to agree to halt uranium enrichment, but the deadline passed without a deal. He also suggested that the Israeli strikes may have destroyed Iran’s nuclear capabilities, but that "nobody knows. It was a very devastating hit.” It was not yet clear if Washington sanctioned the attacks, or was just given advance notice by Israel, though on Thursday Secretary of State Marco Rubio maintained that the White House was not involved in the “unilateral” military operations. U.S. officials have said they are deploying warships and other military assets in the region to safeguard Israel and American troops in the region. ReutersFinancial TimesPoliticoNew York Times

Trump reportedly vetoed Israeli plan to eliminate Iranian supreme leader. President Donald Trump reportedly rejected an Israeli plan to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, fearing it would escalate the conflict and destabilize the region. According to a source, Washington opposed the plan and stressed the importance of containing the military campaign, though Israel presented it as credible. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu avoided confirming the plan publicly, while a spokesperson dismissed the reports as false. Despite rising tensions, Trump issued a stern warning that any Iranian attack on U.S. targets would trigger a massive military response, yet he also expressed hope for a future deal between Iran and Israel. As Trump prepared for the G7 summit, he claimed he could help broker peace, citing his role in past international conflicts. Meanwhile, opinions within Trump’s political circle remain divided—some urging restraint, others advocating full support for Israel’s military objectives if diplomacy fails. Associated PressBloombergReuters

Trump sees peace between Iran and Israel soon, eyes Putin role. Despite ongoing violence between Israel and Iran, President Donald Trump on Sunday expressed confidence that peace is near, even suggesting that Russian President Vladimir Putin could help mediate. On social media, Trump posted that “many calls and meetings” were underway, and predicted a deal would happen soon, though he provided no details. In an ABC News interview, he claimed the recent escalation might actually accelerate negotiations. This optimism contrasted with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s statement that Israel’s campaign against Iran would intensify. Trump also revealed he had spoken with Putin about the conflict, saying the Russian leader was willing to assist. A planned round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks was canceled due to the strikes. Reuters

Trump and Putin discuss Middle East tensions in hour-long call. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin spoke for about an hour on Saturday to discuss the growing conflict between Israel and Iran. Trump, in a Truth Social post, shared few details but said both leaders agreed the war should end. He also told Putin that Russia’s war in Ukraine should end as well. Trump noted that the Russian leader had called to wish him a happy 79th birthday, and described the gesture as “very nice.” According to Russian state media, Putin condemned Israel’s military actions and warned of the risk of broader regional instability. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Trump indicated he might reopen U.S. talks with Iran on its nuclear program. However, U.S.-Iran negotiations scheduled for Sunday in Oman were canceled. BloombergReutersReutersNew York TimesPolitico

How a Once-Resistant Trump Decided to Back Israel’s Attacks on Iran. President Trump told Senator Lindsey Graham last Wednesday evening that while the U.S. was still pursuing diplomacy with Iran, “sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do”—a comment Graham took as foreshadowing Israeli military action. Trump had started the week trying to delay an Israeli strike to allow more time for diplomacy but shifted course as hopes for a nuclear deal with Iran faded. After multiple warnings and a missed deadline set by Trump himself, Israel launched a major airstrike campaign against Iranian nuclear facilities and military leaders, killing dozens. Although Washington was not involved militarily, Trump had been informed of the plans and did not oppose them. The abrupt turn reflected mounting pressure from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and growing skepticism within the Trump administration that Tehran would negotiate. Trump later defended the Israeli strikes as potentially making a deal more likely and urged Iran to negotiate “before there is nothing left.” Wall Street Journal

Trump shifts focus of ICE campaign, halting controversial raids on farms, hotels and eateries. The Trump administration has informed Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to scale back raids targeting key industries like agriculture, meatpacking plants, hotels, and restaurants, according to officials, and internal ICE guidance. The pause comes amid backlash from protests, and concerns that aggressive deportation efforts are disrupting industries reliant on immigrant labor—sectors Trump has ties to and seeks to protect politically. An internal email instructed ICE agents to halt arrests of “non-criminal collaterals” at these worksites, though investigations into crimes like trafficking or smuggling may continue. Trump publicly acknowledged that his immigration policies were making it difficult for farmers and hospitality businesses to retain "very good, long time workers." The move contrasts with earlier efforts, including a surge in arrests following demands from top White House adviser Stephen Miller. While the change may ease industry concerns, ICE agents were caught off guard and are uncertain about how it will affect long-term enforcement goals. The administration has not clarified if similar pauses will extend to other sectors. New York TimesAxios

Trump hosts military parade amid nationwide ‘No Kings’ protests. On his 79th birthday, President Donald Trump presided over the largest military parade in Washington in decades. The event, commemorating the Army’s 250th anniversary, featured tanks, drones, helicopters, robotic quadrupeds, and troops in both historical and modern uniforms, capped off by fireworks and patriotic fanfare. Trump delivered a disciplined speech praising the military and warning adversaries of America’s strength, while avoiding direct mention of ongoing conflicts in Ukraine or the escalating war between Israel and Iran. Though supporters viewed the parade as a tribute to the armed forces, critics likened it to authoritarian displays, citing high costs and political overtones. Protests under the “No Kings” banner unfolded nationwide, accusing Trump of embracing dictatorial tendencies. Organizers said millions of participants flooded the streets in cities like New York, Philadelphia, Houston, and Los Angeles. AxiosPoliticoNPRNew York TimesBBC

Minnesota manhunt ends as police arrest suspect in lawmaker’s shooting death. Vance Boelter, the 57-year-old man suspected of killing former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband, and wounding State Sen. John Hoffman and his wife, was captured Sunday evening in a rural field after a nearly two-day manhunt—the largest in state history. Authorities say Boelter, acting alone, posed as a police officer and used a fake patrol car to carry out the shootings early Saturday at the Hoffmans’ and Hortmans’ homes. Boelter exchanged gunfire with police before fleeing the scene. A criminal complaint charges him with two counts of second-degree murder and two of attempted murder. Authorities recovered writings from a vehicle listing about 70 names—including lawmakers and abortion rights advocates—but no clear motive has been disclosed. The attacks, which appear politically targeted, have shaken the state and prompted increased security measures. Both Hoffman and his wife survived multiple gunshot wounds. Hortman, a longtime Democratic leader and abortion rights advocate, is being widely mourned for her political legacy. Boelter is expected to appear in court on Monday. Washington PostAssociated PressBBCCNNWall Street Journal

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russia is shifting tactics again, assaulting Ukrainian cities with swarms of killer drones. Russia has intensified its drone warfare against Ukraine, launching swarms of Iranian-designed Shahed drones—up to 479 drones and missiles in a single night—often including decoys to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses. These aerial assaults, increasingly concentrated on key cities like Kyiv, Odesa, and Kharkiv, now occur at higher altitudes (1–3 miles), making them harder to shoot down with conventional weapons. Russia's domestic drone production has surged to 2,700 Shahed drones and 2,500 decoys monthly. Ukrainian air defenses, which once intercepted 95% of drones, now manage around 80% amid a growing strain and missile shortages. Volunteers, like rooftop gunners in Kyiv, are struggling to keep up. Ukrainian families are sheltering regularly in garages and bunkers. While Kyiv is relatively well protected, smaller cities endure constant attacks with little defense. President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia’s drone output vastly exceeds Ukraine’s due to a lack of Western financial support. CNN

Russia’s Summer Offensive in Ukraine Gains Ground With New Tactics. Russia has opened a new front in its summer offensive by advancing into Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy Oblast, seizing over 200 square kilometers near the border and pushing within 12–20 kilometers of the regional capital of Sumy. Moscow claims the operation is aimed at establishing a 100-kilometer “buffer zone,” not to capture the city, which analysts say is beyond Russia’s current capabilities. Still, the assault ties up Ukrainian troops, who are already stretched thin and suffering from manpower shortages. Russia employs wave tactics—sending lightly equipped infantry followed by more trained units—while saturating the battlefield with drones. Ukrainian defenses are hampered by poorly constructed fortifications and limited reserves. President Volodymyr Zelensky says Ukraine has stopped Russia from penetrating deeper than 7 kilometers inside the border and recaptured the village of Andriivka. However, Russia’s drone and artillery reach continues to expand. New York TimesWashington PostReutersKyiv Independent

Ukrainian military denies New York Times claims about Russian presence in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.Ukrainian military officials denied New York Times claims that Russian troops had entered Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Spokespersons for the Khortytsia group of forces told Suspilne on Friday that there was no confirmed enemy incursion, disputing both the newspaper’s report and a map by the Institute for the Study of War that suggested a Russian foothold. Ukraine’s DeepState monitoring group also found no evidence of Russian entry. Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed a Dnipropetrovsk advance on June 8. Kyiv Independent

Zelensky Says US ‘Decisiveness’ Key to Pressuring Putin.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters Friday in Kyiv that U.S. “decisiveness” is essential to pressuring Russia toward a ceasefire. Speaking ahead of the G7 summit in Canada, where he hopes to meet President Donald Trump, Zelensky stressed the need for U.S. sanctions and strong steps to unite Europe behind Ukraine. Without firm U.S. backing, Zelensky warned, European support wavers. He also emphasized Ukraine’s desire for a foreign security presence following any ceasefire to deter further Russian aggression. Zelensky acknowledged that Ukraine is unable to restore its 1991 borders through military force. Bloomberg

Putin tells Trump Russia is ready for the next round of Ukraine talks. Russian President Vladimir Putin told U.S. President Donald Trump that Moscow is ready to resume peace talks with Ukraine after June 22, once ongoing exchanges of prisoners and war dead are completed. The statement came during their fifth phone call since Trump took office, signaling a continued effort to reset U.S.-Russia relations. The Kremlin described Saturday’s conversation as productive and solution-focused. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized the U.S. for adopting what he called an overly warm tone with Russia, warning it undermines efforts to end the war. The Japan Times

Trump gave Putin a ‘two-week’ deadline to consider peace in Ukraine. Instead, Russia just launched more drones. President Donald Trump’s self-imposed two-week deadline for Russia to show seriousness about peace in Ukraine has passed without progress. Instead, Moscow escalated attacks, launching record-breaking drone barrages—up to 479 drones and 20 missiles in a single night. Since May 28, when Trump set the deadline, Russia has repeatedly targeted civilians, breaking previous drone assault records. Despite earlier hints at sanctions, Trump has taken no action. On June 6, he even suggested Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb provoked Russia’s attacks. Critics note Trump’s inaction and soft stance, including his administration’s congratulatory message on Russia Day, as enabling Russia’s aggression. Ukrainian civilians continue to suffer near-nightly bombardment, while U.S.-led diplomacy has produced little. Analysts warn that Moscow sees no incentive to halt its assaults. Kyiv Independent

With no new US aid packages on the horizon, can Ukraine continue to fight Russia? With no new U.S. military aid announced in nearly five months, Ukraine faces mounting pressure as Russian forces intensify their eastern offensive. President Donald Trump’s administration has adopted a passive stance, expecting Russia to cease hostilities without direct pressure, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that aid cuts would begin in 2026. The U.S. previously provided nearly $74 billion in military aid—about 30% of Ukraine’s total supply—but delays and redirection of shipments have left Kyiv scrambling. European allies aim to compensate with the €842 billion ReArm Europe plan, though they are currently unprepared to match U.S. support levels. Ukraine is pursuing direct arms purchases and increasing domestic weapons production. However, experts warn that the Patriot air defense system remains irreplaceable. Ukrainian cities, not just the military, depend on U.S. support for protection. Intelligence cooperation is also at risk. Kyiv Independent

These Patriot Missiles Are Israel’s Trash And Ukraine’s Treasure. Older MIM-104 Patriot missile systems from Israel’s inventory may have quietly reached Ukraine, bolstering its air defenses amid record Russian drone and missile attacks. While Israel officially denied transferring Patriot systems, its ambassador to Ukraine, Michael Brodsky, stated on June 8 that retired Israeli Patriots were now in Ukrainian service. U.S. and Israeli coordination on Patriot transfers has been reported since 2024, with shipments of missiles and systems routed through Poland. Israel’s reluctance to publicly acknowledge the aid likely stems from its desire to avoid provoking Russia, given strategic concerns in Syria. Israel retired its Patriots in 2024, having long questioned their effectiveness, especially after poor performance during the Gulf War. Though largely unused in Israeli defense, these PAC-2 systems are seen as valuable additions to Ukraine’s layered air defense, especially against drones and Russian aircraft. Their deployment highlights Ukraine’s urgent need and Israel’s willingness to offload obsolete inventory discreetly. Forbes

Ukraine's Sapsan ballistic missile to enter serial production following successful combat testing.Ukraine’s domestically developed Sapsan short-range ballistic missile has entered serial production after successful combat testing in May, where it struck a Russian military target nearly 300 km away. With a 480 kg payload, Sapsan marks a significant step in Ukraine’s effort to boost self-reliant defense capabilities amid limited Western arms deliveries. President Zelensky has emphasized increased domestic production, stating that over 40% of frontline weapons and 95% of drones now originate from Ukrainian factories. Other weapons include the Neptune cruise missile and the Palianytsia missile-drone. The announcement comes as Russia intensifies its missile attacks and increases production by over 66%, while U.S. aid to Ukraine faces budget cuts and Germany declines to provide Taurus missiles. Kyiv Independent

Hegseth confirms US redirected Ukraine’s anti-drone systems to the Middle East. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed on Fox News Saturday that the United States had redirected anti-drone systems originally intended for Ukraine to the Middle East. Speaking about a recent congressional hearing, Hegseth stated he was asked directly whether counter-unmanned aerial systems had been moved from Ukraine, to which he replied, “Yes we did.” The decision was made to protect U.S. forces in the region amid shifting global security priorities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously told ABC News on June 8 that 20,000 anti-Shahed missiles promised under the Biden administration had been diverted, catching Kyiv by surprise. NV

Russia Says It Struck Kremenchuk Oil Refinery in Ukraine. Russia launched an early Sunday large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine’s Kremenchuk oil refinery in the Poltava region, which was previously targeted in 2022. The overnight strike, lasting from 11:30 p.m. to 4 a.m., damaged energy and agricultural infrastructure, residential buildings, and vehicles. No injuries were reported, and Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepted most of the missiles and drones. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry condemned the assault and urged the international community to impose the harshest sanctions on Russia and bolster Ukraine’s defenses. BloombergUkrinform

Russia air attack damaged Boeing offices in Ukraine. In a recent massive aerial assault, Russia launched a massive aerial assault on Ukraine, damaging a building used by U.S. aerospace giant Boeing in Kyiv. The attack was part of one of the most intense barrages of the war on June 9-10, involving 315 drones and multiple missiles. Boeing, which partners with Ukraine’s Antonov on defense projects, reported no injuries or operational disruptions. Ukrainian officials believe the strike deliberately targeted the U.S. company, highlighting a broader pattern: over 30% of American Chamber of Commerce members in Ukraine have reported damage, and several U.S. firms—including Coca-Cola and Cargill—have suffered facility destruction since 2022. Financial Times

Ukrainian Drones Wipe Out Russian Air Defense Systems in Zaporizhzhia Region. Ukrainian drones destroyed key Russian air defense systems in the occupied Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence said Sunday. The targeted strike eliminated a Buk-M3 missile system, an Imbir radar, and a Pantsir-S1 system. Video footage shows a Ukrainian drone evading enemy fire before striking its targets. This operation adds to the 1,185 Russian air defense systems reportedly lost since the full-scale invasion began, highlighting continued Ukrainian success in precision drone warfare. Defense Express

Russia hands over 1,200 war dead bodies to Ukraine. Ukraine received the bodies of 1,200 fallen soldiers from Russia, marking the fourth such transfer this month under agreements reached during recent talks in Istanbul. According to Ukrainian officials on Sunday, over 4,800 bodies have been repatriated in total. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said a complex identification process is now underway. The agreement also includes the exchange of sick, wounded, and under-25 prisoners of war. Russia claims it has received only 27 of its war dead in return. Exact POW exchange numbers remain undisclosed. ReutersReuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Friday, June 13- Sunday, June 15.

SUNDAY–Russian President Vladimir Putin is leveraging the Iran-Israel conflict to present Russia as a vital U.S. partner, offering to mediate peace during a June 14 call with President Trump that focused more on Middle East tensions than on Ukraine, likely aiming to divert attention from Russia’s ongoing war. SATURDAY–Russian forces made incremental gains east of Novopavlivka, advancing from three tactical directions into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and reportedly seizing Horikhove with elements of the 80th Tank Regiment and 41st Combined Arms Army. Russian troops also pushed into southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast near Dachne, with the 51st Combined Arms Army advancing westward while Ukrainian forces counterattacked in eastern Oleksiivka. South of Novopavlivka, Russian forces seized Fedorivka and advanced near Komar and along the Mokri Yaly River, supported by redeployed naval infantry and mechanized brigades. Ukrainian forces struck Russia’s defense industrial sites, including the Nevinnomyssk Azot Plant in Stavropol Krai and petrochemical facilities in Samara Oblast, targeting materials used in explosives and fuel. FRIDAY–Russian officials condemned Israeli airstrikes on Iran, with President Vladimir Putin offering to mediate nuclear talks between Iran and Israel and calling for a diplomatic resolution. The Russian Foreign Ministry denounced the strikes as violations of international law and warned of destabilizing effects, while also blaming Western nations for anti-Iran sentiment. Russian lawmakers praised closer military ties with Iran and criticized Western actions as global injustice. Oil prices surged over 5% following the Israeli strikes, potentially boosting Russia’s war funding. Putin convened discussions on a new rearmament program to modernize Russia’s defense sector, with a focus on air defenses, drones, artificial intelligence, and space assets.

EUROPE

Starmer confirms military buildup in Middle East as Europe urges restraint. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed Sunday the UK is deploying military assets, including jets, to the Middle East amid escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. Speaking en route to the G7 summit, Starmer emphasized the move is precautionary and urged both sides to de-escalate. His remarks followed Iran’s threat to strike U.S., UK, and French forces if they defend Israel. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul called for urgent talks within a week to address Iran’s nuclear program, with France and Britain offering to mediate. Amid ongoing missile exchanges, European support for Israel has softened due to worsening conditions in Gaza. The Israel-Iran conflict will be a key topic at the G7 summit. Politico EU

Germany wants the next EU budget to focus on defense. Germany is pushing for the next European Union seven-year budget to prioritize defense spending without increasing overall national contributions, according to a position paper seen by the Financial Times. Citing Russia’s continued threat and aligning with U.S. President Donald Trump’s calls for greater European self-reliance, Berlin advocates for funding joint arms procurement, dual-use technologies, and military transport infrastructure. To free up resources, Germany proposes cutting administrative costs, simplifying budget structures, and maintaining but reforming key areas, such as farm subsidies and cohesion policy. Berlin firmly opposes extending the €800 billion Covid-era joint borrowing program and suggests exploring new EU-level revenues, such as carbon levies or corporate taxes, to manage upcoming debt repayments. Financial Times

Europe Set to Move a Step Closer to Halting Russian Gas Imports. On Tuesday, the European Commission will propose a regulation to phase out all Russian pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports by the end of 2027, aiming to sever energy ties with Russia following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Starting January 1, 2026, the measure will gradually ban Russian gas imports and prohibit services to Russian firms at European Union LNG terminals. Short-term contracts signed before June 17 will be exempt for one year; long-term contracts will be banned from 2028. The regulation, which can be approved by qualified-majority vote, avoids full sanctions to bypass opposition from Hungary and Slovakia. The plan also includes stricter customs reporting and mandates that EU states submit diversification plans by March 2026. Bloomberg

US Opposes European Push to Lower G-7’s Russia Oil Price Cap. The U.S. is opposing a European push to lower the G-7’s $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian oil, despite efforts by the European Union and UK to reduce it to $45 to curb Russia’s war funding. While the cap reduction is part of the EU’s latest sanctions package, no shift in Washington’s stance has emerged ahead of the G-7 summit in Canada. Officials say a final decision rests with President Donald Trump. Although the EU and UK could act independently, a united G-7 move would be more effective, especially given the U.S.'s enforcement power. Recent oil price surges, fueled by Israeli strikes on Iran, have further complicated talks, raising concerns among some European nations about acting without U.S. support. Bloomberg

Baltic countries team up on mass evacuation plans as Russian threat grows. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia signed an agreement Friday to jointly plan mass evacuations amid growing concerns over Russian aggression and the upcoming Zapad 2025 military exercises in Belarus. The interior ministers pledged to coordinate evacuation procedures, share data on routes and border crossings, and ensure vulnerable populations are not left behind. Lithuanian Interior Minister Vladislav Kondratovič emphasized the need for clear, unified procedures to avoid panic in crises. The move follows a broader declaration in May by eight European Union countries, which called for enhanced civil preparedness and resilience across Europe. This recognition underscores that national security depends not only on military readiness but also on the ability to manage large-scale emergencies and hybrid threats effectively. Politico EU

Finland accuses senior crew of a Russia-linked vessel in damage of undersea power cable in the Baltic Sea. Finnish authorities have accused senior crew members of the Russia-linked oil tanker Eagle S of damaging undersea infrastructure between Finland and Estonia on December 25, 2024. The vessel allegedly dragged its anchor for nearly 100 kilometers, damaging the Estlink-2 power cable and communication lines. The ship, flagged in the Cook Islands, is part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” used to evade Western sanctions. Finnish police suspect the master, chief mate, and second mate of aggravated criminal mischief and interference with telecommunications. The case has been forwarded to prosecutors. Although the damage didn’t interrupt power supply, it raised regional energy costs and heightened concerns over Russian-linked sabotage in European waters amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. Associated Press

In a German City Long Home to American Troops, Trump Era Tests Ties. In Kaiserslautern, Germany—home to the largest U.S. military community overseas—residents and American personnel maintain deep personal and economic ties despite growing political tension under President Trump. The U.S. presence, dating back to the post-World War II era, contributes $2.5 billion annually to the local economy, and shared traditions reflect enduring friendship. However, Trump’s skepticism of NATO and past threats to withdraw troops have unsettled locals, with German trust in the U.S. declining. While some, including real estate agents and teachers, express confidence that the American presence will remain, others worry about a shift from partnership to occupation. Despite political uncertainty, many in Kaiserslautern remain committed to preserving German-American relations through community events and shared history. New York Times

Macron visits Greenland to show European solidarity after Trump's annexation threats. During his visit to Greenland, French President Emmanuel Macron declared on Sunday that Greenland “is not to be sold, not to be taken,” directly opposing past U.S. threats to annex the island. Speaking alongside Denmark’s and Greenland’s prime ministers, Macron emphasized that his visit symbolized European solidarity and warned against "predatory ambition" in the Arctic. He said Greenland's situation should serve as a wake-up call for Europe and emphasized the need for cooperation, rather than confrontation. Macron added that while he doubted the U.S. would actually invade, he reaffirmed the importance of respecting allies, expressing confidence in the continued transatlantic partnership and NATO unity. Reuters

THE MIDDLE EAST

Iranian missiles hit Tel Aviv, Haifa as Israel targets Iranian command centers in fourth day of strikes.Iran launched a major missile attack on Israel early Monday, striking Tel Aviv, Haifa, and nearby cities. The latest strikes killed at least five people, raising Israel’s total death toll to 18 since Friday. Over 100 others were injured, with missiles hitting Israel’s largest oil refinery, residential buildings, a school in Bnei Brak, the popular Shuk HaCarmel market, and a power facility near Haifa. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed they used a “new method” that disrupted Israel’s air defense systems. In response, Israel continued airstrikes targeting Iranian military and Revolutionary Guard command centers. Israel said on Monday that it had struck the command center of Iran’s Quds Force, a special military unit that coordinates support for Iranian allies in the Middle East and reports directly to the country’s supreme leader. The strike was the latest by Israel since it began a series of relentless attacks on Iran’s nuclear and military sites on Friday, killing at least 10 generals, including the nation’s second most powerful person after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader. The Iranian Health Ministry reported at least 224 deaths inside Iran, including six top security chiefs, and 1,400 injuries since Israeli strikes began late last week. ReutersNew York Times

Iran rejects ceasefire negotiations while under Israeli attack, official says. Iran informed Qatari and Omani mediators it would not consider a ceasefire while Israeli attacks continued, Reuters reported on Monday, citing an official familiar with the matter. The official said that Iran made clear it would only engage in serious negotiations after completing its military response to Israel’s strikes. This contradicts media reports suggesting Iran had appealed to the U.S. via Oman and Qatar to broker a ceasefire or restart nuclear talks. Iran’s foreign ministry and the governments of Qatar and Oman did not comment. ReutersJerusalem Post

Israel Takes Control of Iran’s Skies—a Feat That Still Eludes Russia in Ukraine.Within 48 hours of launching its war against Iran, Israel achieved air superiority over western Iran, including Tehran—a level of dominance Russia has failed to achieve in over three years of war in Ukraine. Israeli warplanes are now operating directly over Iranian airspace, striking targets with precision and using less costly short-range guided bombs. Israel’s initial stealth attacks eliminated much of Iran’s air defenses and military leadership. Experts credit Israel’s advanced air force, superior intelligence, and integration with cyber operations for the success. Unlike Ukraine, Iran lacked a well-organized air defense system and was caught off guard. Analysts say Israel is leveraging its aerial advantage to destroy Iranian missile systems before launch, reducing threats to Israeli cities. The Israeli campaign underscores the critical importance of air superiority in modern warfare, with military leaders highlighting the contrast in capability between Israel and Russia, and between Iranian and Ukrainian defenses.The Wall Street Journal

Israel Has Struck a Blow to Iran’s Nuclear Program—But It Isn’t Yet a Knockout. Israel has inflicted major damage on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure but has not yet neutralized the program. Airstrikes have destroyed centrifuges at Natanz, hit key facilities at Isfahan, and reportedly killed up to 10 nuclear scientists. The uranium conversion and fuel fabrication plants—critical to the production of nuclear bombs—were among the targets. However, Iran’s most fortified facility, Fordow, remains operational. Experts say disabling Fordow and eliminating Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile are essential to preventing a near-term nuclear breakout. While the attacks have set Iran back, Tehran retains expertise, possibly hidden centrifuge stockpiles, and enough enriched uranium to build several bombs. Some analysts warn Israel's strikes could accelerate Iran’s covert nuclear ambitions. Israel’s long-term success depends on whether it can sustain pressure and deny Iran both material and technical capacity to resume weapons development. The situation remains fluid, with risks if Iran chooses to expel inspectors or disperse assets further. Wall Street JournalBloomberg

Where Israel Struck Iran’s Nuclear Program: A Visual Breakdown.The Wall Street Journal is publishing a periodically updated graphic on Iranian nuclear program sites struck by Israeli attacks and the extent of known damage. Wall Street Journal

Two Major Energy Facilities in Tehran Hit in Israeli Strikes. Israeli airstrikes severely damaged two major energy facilities in Tehran on Saturday. The Shahran fuel and gasoline depot in northern Tehran, holding about 8 million liters daily and supplying three days' worth of the capital’s fuel, was set ablaze after being hit. Massive explosions followed. In the city’s south, the Shahr Rey oil refinery—one of Iran’s largest—was also struck, with flames visible for miles. Earlier, Israel also targeted a section of the South Pars Gas Field, vital to Iran’s energy exports. The strikes hit critical infrastructure tied to both domestic supply and foreign revenue.New York TimesAssociated Press

How Israel’s Mossad Smuggled Drone Parts to Attack Iran From Within.Israel’s Mossad executed a long-planned covert operation inside Iran, smuggling parts for hundreds of explosive-laden quadcopter drones through commercial shipments, including suitcases, trucks, and shipping containers. These drones were pre-positioned by small, trained teams near Iranian air-defense sites and missile launchers. When Israel’s airstrikes began, these operatives launched surprise attacks, disabling interceptors and destroying missiles before they could be fired. The campaign aimed to secure air dominance for incoming Israeli jets and severely degrade Iran’s missile capabilities. The tactics mirror Ukraine’s recent drone infiltration of Russian bases and mark a shift in warfare: combining low-cost, hard-to-detect drones with advanced human intelligence. Israeli officials say dozens of missile transport trucks and missiles were destroyed, reducing Iran’s response capacity. The psychological impact has also been significant, highlighting Israel’s deep intelligence reach inside Iran and forcing Tehran to consider internal threats as well as external ones. The operation remains ongoing, with teams still reportedly active inside Iran. Wall Street Journal

After Sitting Out the Iran Attack, U.S. Steps In to Help Israel Intercept Missiles. While the U.S. did not participate in Israel’s initial strike on Iran, it has played a significant defensive role in the aftermath. As Iran launched more than 200 ballistic missiles and over 200 drones at Israel, U.S. forces stepped in to intercept many of them. U.S. jet fighters, Navy destroyers, and ground-based interceptors—including Patriot and THAAD systems—were deployed across the region. A THAAD battery, stationed in Israel since 2024, helped intercept long-range missiles alongside Israel’s Arrow defense system. U.S. warships in the Mediterranean and Gulf also fired interceptors at incoming threats. At Al Asad Air Base in Iraq, coalition forces shot down drones believed to have been launched from Iraqi territory. Though President Trump initially distanced the U.S. from Israel’s offensive, he later endorsed the strikes and approved defensive support. The Pentagon is still assessing the number of incoming projectiles that U.S. forces successfully intercepted. Wall Street Journal

Israel’s Attack in Iran Echoes Its Strategy Against Hezbollah, Hamas. Israel’s current campaign against Iran mirrors its earlier strategy used against Hezbollah and Hamas: targeting and eliminating top leadership and degrading military infrastructure. Last year, Israel killed more than 15 senior Hezbollah commanders, including Hassan Nasrallah, severely weakening the group. Similar tactics are now being used against Iran, with strikes killing top military leaders and crippling key missile systems. However, Iran is far more powerful, with a large standing army and long-range ballistic capabilities, posing a greater challenge than non-state militias. So far, Iran's allies like Hezbollah and Iraqi militias have stayed on the sidelines, issuing condemnations but avoiding major retaliation. Hezbollah remains weakened after heavy Israeli strikes and the loss of Syrian logistical support. Analysts note that Iran's proxy network is now more fragmented, diminishing its collective threat. Still, observers caution that Israel’s high-risk strategy against a state actor like Iran could provoke broader regional escalation. New York TimesAssociated Press

Yemen's Houthis target Israel with ballistic missiles in coordination with Iran. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group said it coordinated ballistic missile attacks on Israel with Iran for the first time. Houthi military spokesperson Yehya Sarea said Sunday that several missiles targeted central Israel’s Jaffa in solidarity with both Palestinians and Iranians. Israel reported missile sirens across multiple areas, including Hebron in the West Bank, where a Yemeni-launched missile reportedly landed—though the Houthis did not claim that specific strike. The group has regularly attacked Israel since the October 2023 Hamas-led assault, citing support for Gaza. Most Houthi attacks have been intercepted. The U.S. previously struck Houthi positions before pausing operations after they agreed to stop targeting American ships. Reuters

Israel’s Attacks Leave Iran’s Supreme Leader Exposed—With No Good Options. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei now faces a crisis with no good options. Israel’s strikes have crippled Iran’s military infrastructure, assassinated top commanders, and exposed deep intelligence vulnerabilities. Khamenei’s deterrence strategy—built over decades through regional militias and a powerful surveillance state—has faltered. Retaliating further risks harsher Israeli responses or drawing in the U.S., while restraint could appear weak to his hardline base. Negotiating a nuclear deal would anger loyalists who view concessions as betrayal. Domestically, while Iranians may be frustrated, mass uprising is unlikely given the regime’s repressive capabilities. Regionally, Iran’s proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas are weakened. Khamenei’s role as a guarantor of national security is in question, and his legitimacy, built on strength and stability, is eroding. His dilemma: escalate, capitulate, or risk losing both power and the Islamic Republic’s strategic posture. Wall Street Journal

A Miscalculation by Iran Led to Israeli Strikes’ Extensive Toll, Officials Say. Iran’s leadership miscalculated the timing and intensity of Israel’s strike, assuming no attack would occur before upcoming nuclear talks. Believing Israeli warnings were mere pressure tactics, officials ignored planned precautions. Top commanders remained in their homes or gathered in vulnerable locations and were killed. The result was devastating: Israel struck at least 15 locations across Iran, crippling air defenses, damaging nuclear sites, and killing senior military figures. Iran’s retaliatory missile response was limited due to destroyed launch infrastructure. The surprise and scale of Israel’s operation exposed severe intelligence and defense failures. New York Times

Israeli fire and airstrikes kill over 41 Palestinians.Israeli airstrikes and gunfire on Sunday killed at least 41 Palestinians across Gaza, including five near U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) aid sites. Medics reported fatalities in Beit Lahiya, Nuseirat camp, and other southern areas. The Israeli military offered no immediate comment. GHF resumed food deliveries the same day, distributing over two million meals without incident, though earlier aid access had led to mass shootings. The UN criticized Israel’s distribution system as unsafe and politically compromised. Gaza’s health ministry claims over 300 people have been killed and 2,600 wounded near aid sites since GHF operations began, amid ongoing conflict that has displaced most of Gaza’s population. Politico EUReuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

US-China trade truce leaves military-use rare earth issue unresolved, sources say. The recent U.S.-China trade truce reached in London failed to resolve a critical sticking point: export restrictions tied to national security. While both sides made progress on tariff reductions and licensing for some rare-earth exports, China has refused to lift curbs on certain rare-earth magnets essential for U.S. military systems, such as fighter jets and missiles. Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to restrict exports of advanced AI chips to China, citing national security risks. At the talks, Chinese negotiators appeared to link rare-earth access to easing AI chip restrictions—an approach U.S. officials rejected. Despite President Trump calling the agreement a "great deal," major issues remain unresolved. The White House is expected to extend tariffs past the August 10 deadline, signaling that a comprehensive agreement is unlikely soon. China’s control over critical minerals and the continued standoff over sensitive technologies highlight the challenges facing any lasting resolution in the ongoing Washington-Beijing trade conflict. Reuters

Taiwan war game triggers US questions over island’s ‘will to fight’ if PLA attacks. A civilian war game held in Taipei simulating a 2030 Chinese invasion of Taiwan exposed significant weaknesses in the island’s eastern and offshore defences. In the two-day exercise, the PLA quickly captured key areas, including Penghu and parts of eastern Taiwan, prompting criticism of Taiwan’s hesitant military response. The simulation involved teams representing Taiwan, the U.S., Japan, and China, with participation from high-ranking former military officials. The U.S. team warned that American intervention would depend on Taipei’s willingness to fight. Taiwan’s restraint, justified by the principle of avoiding escalation, was sharply criticized by observers who stressed the need for a clearer response doctrine. The game underscored Taiwan’s vulnerable infrastructure and the importance of morale and timely countermeasures. While not designed to declare a winner, the exercise highlighted gaps in Taiwan’s preparedness and raised questions about the reliability of U.S. support, particularly if Taiwan appeared indecisive or provoked the conflict through moves toward formal independence. South China Morning Post

US aircraft carrier heads west from South China Sea amid Middle East tensions.The U.S. aircraft carrier USS Nimitz left the South China Sea on Monday, heading west, after cancelling a planned port call in Danang, Vietnam. A formal reception scheduled for June 20 was also called off, reportedly due to an “emergent operational requirement,” according to a source informed by the U.S. Embassy in Hanoi. The carrier had recently conducted maritime security operations in the region as part of the U.S. Navy’s routine Indo-Pacific presence. Tracking data suggests the Nimitz is now moving toward the Middle East amid flaring tensions and strikes between Israel and Iran. Reuters

China's military conducts patrols in the South China Sea, warns Philippines. China conducted joint sea and air patrols in the South China Sea on Saturday, citing increased security risks due to the Philippines partnering with outside countries for joint patrols. A spokesperson for the PLA's Southern Theater Command warned that all provocative military activities in the region are being closely monitored and controlled. This comes amid rising tensions between China and the Philippines, which recently held their seventh joint maritime drill with the United States. China continues to assert broad territorial claims over the South China Sea, despite a 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration rejecting those claims under international law—a ruling Beijing refuses to accept. Reuters

China has no comment on a report about nuclear arsenals, foreign ministry says.China declined to comment on a recent think tank report claiming that it has the fastest-growing nuclear arsenal. At a press conference on Monday, a foreign ministry spokesperson stated that China continues to follow a self-defence strategy, keeps its nuclear forces at the minimum necessary for national security, and avoids participating in any arms race. Reuters

Is North Korea’s Kim shoring up navy in strategic bid with allies China, Russia? North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has pledged to build a blue-water navy capable of operating across open oceans, framing it as a strategic response to growing threats from the U.S. and its allies. At the launch of the destroyer Kang Kon, Kim stressed expanding naval power beyond coastal defense to assert sovereignty and challenge foreign military presence in the Pacific. The ship, the second 5,000-ton destroyer launched this year, reflects Pyongyang’s ambitions to develop long-range capabilities, potentially including nuclear-armed vessels. Analysts suggest this move signals growing military coordination with China and Russia, especially near shared strategic locations like Rajin Port and the Chongjin Shipyard. Pyongyang plans to build two more large destroyers by 2026. Experts believe Russian and Chinese support is crucial, as the regime lacks the industrial capacity to produce key materials. The naval buildup could increase tensions and enable future joint drills targeting U.S. and allied forces in the region. South China Morning Post

Cambodia turns to World Court over Thailand border dispute.Cambodia has formally asked the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to resolve its border disputes with Thailand, following a deadly skirmish in May along parts of their un-demarcated 820-km frontier. Prime Minister Hun Manet emphasized the importance of seeking a peaceful resolution through international law, while Thailand has rejected the ICJ’s jurisdiction, preferring bilateral talks. Recent negotiations between the two countries ended without agreement, though both sides pledged to ease tensions. Cambodia proposed referring four disputed areas to the ICJ and excluding them from future bilateral talks. Despite Bangkok’s opposition, Cambodia plans to proceed with legal action independently. Meanwhile, both nations have taken retaliatory measures, including trade and media restrictions. Reuters

AFRICA

Thousands protest in Ivory Coast after opposition leader barred from presidential race.Thousands of Ivorians gathered peacefully in Abidjan on Saturday to protest the exclusion of opposition leader Tidjane Thiam from the upcoming presidential election. Thiam, a former Credit Suisse CEO and head of the Democratic Party of Ivory Coast (PDCI), was barred from running due to a court ruling citing his former dual Ivorian-French nationality, despite having renounced his French citizenship in March. Demonstrators, braving heavy rain, denounced the decision as politically motivated and called for the reinstatement of Thiam and other opposition figures removed from the electoral list. PDCI leaders formally petitioned the electoral commission to reverse the exclusions. Tensions are rising ahead of the October 25 vote, with President Alassane Ouattara expected to seek a controversial fourth term despite a two-term limit. His 2020 reelection, boycotted by the opposition, was widely disputed. Associated Press

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Oil Traders Brace for Turmoil as Iran Crisis Imperils Supply. Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure, including the South Pars gas field and fuel storage facilities, have heightened fears of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East. While the strikes hit domestic systems rather than exports, analysts warn that escalating conflict could affect global markets, with oil prices already surging 14% on Friday to near $73 per barrel. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive prices as high as $130, though experts say such a move is unlikely. OPEC+ may be asked to offset any shortfalls, but doing so could be politically sensitive. The International Energy Agency says markets remain well supplied but stands ready to release emergency reserves if needed. Bloomberg

Microwave blasters can down even jam-proof drones. The U.S. Army and allied defense firms are rapidly advancing microwave weapons technology to counter drone swarms, spurred by growing threats like those seen in Ukraine's "Operation Spider Web." The Leonidas IFPC-HPM, developed by Epirus, disrupts drone electronics with high-powered microwave pulses and is already deployed in the Pacific and Middle East. Unlike traditional electronic warfare, these systems are effective against AI-guided and fiber-optic-controlled drones. Several firms—including Thales, Leidos, RTX, and Lockheed Martin—are developing variants with ranges up to or beyond 1 kilometer. While costly upfront, microwave weapons are cheaper to operate and harder for drones to defend against. Ukraine is seeking such systems but has yet to receive them; export approval may soon be reconsidered under the Trump administration. Ultimately, microwave blasters are emerging as a critical last line of defense in modern air warfare. The Economist

China delays approval of $35 billion US chip merger amid Trump’s trade war. China’s antitrust regulator has delayed approval of a $35 billion merger between U.S. semiconductor firms Synopsys and Ansys, amid heightened trade tensions following President Donald Trump’s recent tightening of chip export controls to China. The deal, which U.S. and European authorities have already approved, was in the final stage of review by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR). The delay may be linked to U.S. restrictions on sales of chip design software, including from Synopsys, to China. Despite the setback, sources suggest the merger could still proceed if Synopsys addresses regulatory concerns. The delay coincides with renewed U.S.-China trade talks and a tentative truce. Synopsys has resumed some product sales to China, though key software tools remain restricted. The merger must close by January 15, 2026, per the deal terms.Financial Times

Taiwan adds China’s Huawei and SMIC to export control list. Taiwan has added Chinese tech giants Huawei and SMIC to its export control list amid escalating trade and technology tensions involving China and the U.S. This move requires Taiwanese firms to acquire permits before exporting certain goods to these companies. The list, which also includes groups like the Taliban and al-Qaeda, targets entities linked to sensitive technologies. Both Huawei and SMIC are under U.S. sanctions and are developing advanced AI chips to rival U.S. firms like Nvidia. Taiwan, home to major chipmaker TSMC, plays a key role in the global tech supply chain. The U.S. has previously directed TSMC to stop supplying advanced chips to Chinese firms as part of efforts to limit China's tech advancement. Taiwan’s decision reflects growing geopolitical and technological rivalry, particularly as Beijing continues to assert its claim over the self-ruled island, which the U.S. supports as a key strategic partner. Associated Press Reuters

Cyberattack on Washington Post Compromises Email Accounts of Journalists. Sources say an cyberattack on the Washington Post compromised the Microsoft email accounts of several journalists, possibly by a foreign government. According to company officials, the affected reporters include those covering national security and economic policy, particularly China. Executive Editor Matt Murray informed staff in a memo that a “targeted unauthorized intrusion” was discovered Thursday, and an investigation is underway. The breach appears limited to email accounts, and affected employees have been instructed not to discuss it. Journalists are frequent targets for nation-state hackers seeking intelligence, and similar past breaches, such as one at News Corp linked to China, show interest in issues like Taiwan and the Uyghurs. The Post stressed that journalists typically avoid sensitive communication via email, preferring Slack and encrypted apps like Signal. The company has since reset all employee credentials and reported no further system compromise or customer impact. Microsoft declined to comment on the incident. Wall Street Journal

Government offices in North Carolina, Georgia disrupted by cyberattacks.A cyberattack disrupted city operations in Thomasville, North Carolina, last week, forcing many systems offline while essential services remain functional. Authorities were unsure whether any sensitive data was compromised, and cybersecurity experts have been assessing the damage. State and federal agencies have been notified, and the city is complying with a North Carolina law that forbids public entities from paying ransoms. In Georgia, a separate cyberattack hit the Ogeechee Judicial Circuit District Attorney’s Office, affecting phone and internet services across four counties. Most offices are expected to stay closed for five days, and court operations will be limited. The office had delayed implementing a backup system due to budget issues but began setting one up late last year. The current district attorney credited that decision with allowing IT teams to quickly detect and contain the attack before serious data loss occurred. Recovery efforts are ongoing in both cases. The Record

Coker: We can’t have economic prosperity or national security without cybersecurity. In this interview with Recorded Future News, Harry Coker Jr., former U.S. National Cyber Director, reflects on his tenure, stressing the importance of collaboration, depoliticization, and foundational reforms. He highlights efforts to unify cybersecurity efforts across federal agencies, build trust within the interagency, and reform hiring practices by eliminating unnecessary degree requirements in cyber roles. A key achievement was advancing the National Cybersecurity Strategy alongside an actionable implementation plan. He also pushed for strengthening internet infrastructure security, including addressing long-known vulnerabilities like BGP flaws. Coker stressed the need for cyber policy to support national security and economic prosperity equally. Looking ahead, he wishes he had more time to define clearer roles for federal cyber agencies, balance political and career staff in the Office of the National Cyber Director, and expand protections to state, local, tribal, and territorial entities. He also advocated for harmonized cybersecurity regulations across sectors, promoting efficiency without sacrificing accountability. His advice to his successor: prioritize cybersecurity, clarify roles, and lead with collaboration. The Record

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Brad Christian, Executive Editor

Ethan Masucol, Assistant Editor

Brian Bonner, Senior Contributor

Ken Hughes, Tech & Cyber Contributor

Katharine Campbell, Writer, Contributor