State Secrets
In this episode of The Cipher Brief’s State Secrets podcast, host Suzanne Kelly sits down with award-winning historian and bestselling author Simon Sebag Montefiore to discuss his new book, The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East — a sweeping history of roughly 125 years that traces how the region became what it is today.
Drawing on a lifetime of research, writing and travel throughout the Middle East, Montefiore explains why he wanted to write a book that brought the region’s complicated history together in one story — from the final years of the Ottoman Empire and the rise of modern Saudi Arabia to the creation of Israel, the 1979 Iranian Revolution, America’s growing role in the region and the power struggles shaping the Middle East today.
Kelly and Montefiore explore some of the central arguments in The Cauldron, including why he believes the familiar story that Western powers simply drew arbitrary borders after World War I and created the modern Middle East is incomplete. Instead, he puts greater emphasis on the agency of the region’s own leaders, peoples and empires and tells much of that history through the larger-than-life personalities who shaped it.
The conversation moves from Ibn Saud, Atatürk, Reza Shah and David Ben-Gurion to Gamal Abdel Nasser and Ayatollah Khomeini, while also examining the historical forces behind Iran’s role in the region, Russia’s centuries-old interests in the Middle East and the challenges outside powers have repeatedly faced when trying to shape events there.
At its core, The Cauldron is an effort to answer a deceptively simple question: How did we get here? Montefiore explains why understanding that history may not allow us to predict what happens next — but can give us critical context for understanding the people, decisions and forces driving the Middle East today.
America’s adversaries are fighting a war designed to shape what people see, believe, share—and ultimately do.
Russia, China and Iran are investing billions of dollars in influence operations intended to divide Americans, weaken alliances and alter real-world decisions, often without firing a shot. Artificial intelligence is now giving those campaigns unprecedented speed, scale and precision.
In this episode of The Cipher Brief’s State Secrets Podcast, Suzanne Kelly speaks with Shawn Chenoweth, the National Security Council’s Director for Cognitive Advantage, about the escalating war for perception. Chenoweth explains how foreign powers exploit legitimate grievances, amplify American voices and manipulate social media networks to influence public behavior—sometimes without the people involved realizing they are being used.
They also examine why America abandoned much of its influence infrastructure after the Cold War, how adversaries may be targeting opposition to U.S. data centers and AI development, and why determining who controls the information environment could become one of the defining national security contests of our time.
As Chenoweth warns, America is taking “face shots every day” in this arena—and it is time to start fighting back.
Artificial intelligence, drones and commercial satellites are transforming the way intelligence is collected, analyzed and used — but as technology delivers answers faster than ever, how do intelligence professionals make sure those answers are actually right?
In this episode of The Cipher Brief’s State Secrets Podcast, Suzanne Kelly sits down with retired Vice Admiral Frank Whitworth, former Director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) and former Director for Intelligence on the Joint Staff, to discuss how emerging technology is changing intelligence and the character of modern warfare.
Whitworth explains his concept of “drones, codes and spacecraft,” why AI could fundamentally change the intelligence cycle, and the danger of what he calls a “veneer of understanding” — having information at our fingertips without the expertise or rigor needed to truly understand it.
The conversation also explores source validation in the age of AI, the changing nature of deterrence, NGA’s role in warning and targeting, the growing importance of commercial satellite imagery, and Whitworth’s move from government into the private sector.The Cipher Brief brings together experienced intelligence, military, diplomatic and private-sector leaders to help subscribers understand what is happening behind the headlines - and what national security professionals are watching next. Learn more at: www.thecipherbrief.com
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Iranian-American businessman Emad Shargi spent more than five years detained in Iran, enduring solitary confinement, brutal interrogations, a mock execution and a 10-year prison sentence after being accused of cooperating with the United States.
Now, Shargi joins The Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly to tell the extraordinary story of his arrest, imprisonment, attempted escape from Iran and eventual release — and to offer a stark warning about how the Iranian regime operates.
Shargi describes the night IRGC intelligence agents raided his family’s home in Tehran, his detention inside the notorious Evin Prison and the pressure he faced to falsely confess to being a CIA spy.
He also recounts an attempted escape from Iran after being sentenced to a decade in prison — an effort that ended when he was captured near the Iraqi Kurdistan border and returned to IRGC custody.
But this conversation goes beyond his years in prison.
Drawing on his firsthand experience with the Iranian security apparatus, Shargi explains why he believes Washington must fundamentally rethink how it deals with Tehran, the role economic pressure can play in weakening the regime and why he believes the Iranian people ultimately have the will to demand change.
“You cannot negotiate with a cult of death,” Shargi tells The Cipher Brief.
