State Secrets

Russia’s war against Ukraine is being fought on the battlefield, but another confrontation is unfolding across Europe. From drone incursions and sabotage operations to cyberattacks and threats against critical infrastructure, Moscow’s expanding gray zone campaign is raising urgent questions about NATO’s ability to respond.

In this episode of State Secrets, host Suzanne Kelly is joined by Dr. Jacek Siewiera, former head of Poland’s National Security Bureau and former senior national security advisor to the Polish president, and Dave Pitts, former senior CIA executive and co-founder of The Cipher Brief’s Gray Zone Group.

Together, they examine how Russia is using hybrid warfare to test NATO’s defenses, spread fear and uncertainty, and undermine European support for Ukraine. They also explore the growing risks posed by drone technology, the potential use of chemical and radiological weapons, and why traditional deterrence strategies may no longer be enough.

As Russia’s shadow war expands beyond Ukraine, what will it take for Europe and the United States to effectively deter Moscow before these threats escalate further?

A 10th ANNIVERSARY SPECIAL EDITION of the State Secrets Podcast with Suzanne Kelly and Brad Christian as they share the behind-the-scenes stories from the past decade as The Cipher Brief prepares to host the Cipher Brief Threat Conference. From a world where terrorism was front and center and AI was still a curiosity, to today’s world, where China remains the pacing threat, and is buoyed by rapidly emerging technology and a new alignment with Russia, Iran and North Korea.

In this episode of The Cipher Brief’s State Secrets podcast, host Suzanne Kelly sits down with award-winning historian and bestselling author Simon Sebag Montefiore to discuss his new book, The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East — a sweeping history of roughly 125 years that traces how the region became what it is today.

Drawing on a lifetime of research, writing and travel throughout the Middle East, Montefiore explains why he wanted to write a book that brought the region’s complicated history together in one story — from the final years of the Ottoman Empire and the rise of modern Saudi Arabia to the creation of Israel, the 1979 Iranian Revolution, America’s growing role in the region and the power struggles shaping the Middle East today.

Kelly and Montefiore explore some of the central arguments in The Cauldron, including why he believes the familiar story that Western powers simply drew arbitrary borders after World War I and created the modern Middle East is incomplete. Instead, he puts greater emphasis on the agency of the region’s own leaders, peoples and empires and tells much of that history through the larger-than-life personalities who shaped it.

The conversation moves from Ibn Saud, Atatürk, Reza Shah and David Ben-Gurion to Gamal Abdel Nasser and Ayatollah Khomeini, while also examining the historical forces behind Iran’s role in the region, Russia’s centuries-old interests in the Middle East and the challenges outside powers have repeatedly faced when trying to shape events there.

At its core, The Cauldron is an effort to answer a deceptively simple question: How did we get here? Montefiore explains why understanding that history may not allow us to predict what happens next — but can give us critical context for understanding the people, decisions and forces driving the Middle East today.

America’s adversaries are fighting a war designed to shape what people see, believe, share—and ultimately do.

Russia, China and Iran are investing billions of dollars in influence operations intended to divide Americans, weaken alliances and alter real-world decisions, often without firing a shot. Artificial intelligence is now giving those campaigns unprecedented speed, scale and precision.

In this episode of The Cipher Brief’s State Secrets Podcast, Suzanne Kelly speaks with Shawn Chenoweth, the National Security Council’s Director for Cognitive Advantage, about the escalating war for perception. Chenoweth explains how foreign powers exploit legitimate grievances, amplify American voices and manipulate social media networks to influence public behavior—sometimes without the people involved realizing they are being used.

They also examine why America abandoned much of its influence infrastructure after the Cold War, how adversaries may be targeting opposition to U.S. data centers and AI development, and why determining who controls the information environment could become one of the defining national security contests of our time.

As Chenoweth warns, America is taking “face shots every day” in this arena—and it is time to start fighting back.