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Opinion

Agentic AI and the “Human-in-the-Loop” Luxury in Modern Defense

THE IRON TRIANGLE — Welcome to the inaugural edition of “The Iron Triangle”, my new Cipher Brief column that serves the three pillars of modern [...] More

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Human Agency in a Technology-Mediated World

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Occasionally, a speech does more than mark a leadership transition or outline institutional priorities. It captures, with [...] More

Venezuela was a Surprise. What Could be Next?

CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT Q&A -- Deposed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is scheduled to appear in a U.S. courtroom on Monday for the first time since [...] More

A Trained Eye Sees Strategic Patterns in Venezuela

OPINION -- Venezuela presents a long-standing challenge tied to narcotics trafficking and transnational criminal networks. For years, the country has [...] More

Putin Again Bungles Strategy: Why His War of Attrition will Sink Russia

OPINION — On February 14, 2022, with Russia poised to invade Ukraine, I questioned whether Vladimir Putin’s reign to that point had revealed him to [...] More

Pope Leo XIV Has an Opportunity with the 2026 World Day of Peace

OPINION — On January 1, 2026, in his planned first message for the 59th World Day of Peace, Pope Leo XIV will reflect on peace, justice, and global [...] More

Modeling the Earth with AI is Now a Strategic Intelligence Imperative

EXPERT OPINION / PERSPECTIVE — We are currently witnessing a mobilization of technical ambition reminiscent of the Manhattan Project, a realization [...] More

A Bold 2025 National Security Strategy

OPINION — Out with a “rules-based international order” and in with “U.S. core national interests”, according to the U.S. National Security Strategy [...] More

Why the ‘Double Tap’ Incident Matters Far Beyond a Single Strike

EXPERT OPINION — For about a week we experienced significant controversy over the first military attack on alleged narco-trafficker small boats off [...] More

The Push and Pull Between Washington and Beijing in the South China Sea

OPINION — China uses a layered approach in the South China Sea that blends military power, paramilitary forces, legal instruments, and political [...] More

This is Perhaps Ukraine’s Most Dangerous Time

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Each of my eight trips to Ukraine since retiring from the CIA in the summer of 2023 has been filled with unique challenges. Each [...] More

What It Means Now that Fentanyl is Designated a “WMD”

OPINION — “There's no doubt that America's adversaries are trafficking fentanyl into the United States in part because they want to kill Americans. [...] More

Trying to Impose a Loser’s Peace on Ukraine Is a Dead End

OPINION — The fate of territory in eastern Ukraine remains the “most difficult” sticking point in the ongoing peace talks, President Volodymyr [...] More