UNSURE ABOUT THAT ASSESSMENT: Reuters has an exclusive get, reporting that U.S. intelligence agencies have been tasked by senior administration officials with assessing how Iran would respond if President Trump simply declared unilateral victory in the two-month-old war and ended it. The assignment was said to be partly driven by concern that a grinding conflict could cost Republicans at the midterms. This would presumably be a different declaration of victory than the several Trump has already issued. Reuters says that the IC ran this same exercise in February and concluded that Iran would likely interpret a U.S. victory declaration and drawdown as a win for Tehran. After this story was first published, a CIA spokesperson said the Agency was "not familiar" with the reported assessment.
DOMINO EFFECT IN THE STRAIT? USN WANTS AI TO STOP IRANIAN MINES FROM TOPPLING GLOBAL OIL MARKETS: The U.S. Navy reportedly is embracing AI to help clear the Strait of Hormuz of Iranian mines. Reuters reports that the Pentagon just handed what could be - up to a $100 million contract to San Francisco-based AI firm “Domino Data Lab” - to help hunt Iranian mines in the Strait of Hormuz before they take down the global economy like, well, dominoes. The Navy's Project AMMO (yes, that's the actual name) uses underwater drones that previously took up to six months to retrain on new mine types. Domino says it can do it in days. We’re watching.
TANKS FOR THE MEMORIES: The Associated Press reports that the annual World War II victory day parade in Moscow on May 9 of this year – will be missing tanks. And also missiles and other military hardware. The Red Square extravaganza will reportedly break from tradition of parading the military equipment in a show of strength because of the “current operational situation” which may be Russian for: “Ukraine.” The show will go on though and is expected to feature cadets and marching units. .
SHARING IS CARING – We’re just a little confused about the new ground rules around posting things on social media sites that might be interpreted by some as encouraging political violence of some kind. This, after prosecutors at the Department of Justice charged former FBI leader James Comey for posting (and later deleting) an image of seashells arranged in the numbers ‘86 47’. Some (prosecutors) thought that meant that Comey was suggesting harming the president - apparently they were relying on how the mob uses the term ‘86’. Who are we to judge? But we did want some additional expert interpretation - so we reached out to none other than Food & Wine Magazine for a better sense of how people in the hospitality industry actually use the number 86. Turns out, ‘86’ means that a restaurant is out of something or it can also be used to describe a patron who is not welcome in the establishment. (Maybe that’s how the mob came up with the term since we hear they like Italian food and all). We’re confused because a Dead Drop reader recently brought to our attention that back in 2024, then-candidate Trump shared a video on social media that showed a pickup truck flying Trump flags and had an image of a hog-tied Joe Biden on the truck. Now, that just doesn’t sound very nice. We’re sure the social media police will look into it.Got news to share? Drop us a note: Editor@thecipherbrief.comRead more expert-driven national security insights exclusively in www.thecipherbrief.com.
