Report for Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Report for Tuesday, June 17, 2025

• Trump departs G7 early as U.S. moves military assets to Europe and the Middle East
  
  
• Russian missile and drone strikes on Kyiv kill 15, injure at least 114
  
  
• Iran signals desire to de-escalate as G7 leaders call Tehran “source” of instability
  
  
• What the capsizing and relaunching of a warship tells us about North Korea's regime

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Opinion: What’s Happening in L.A. May Not Stay in L.A. Walter Pincus warns that President Donald Trump’s unilateral federalization of the California National Guard amid Los Angeles immigration protests could set a dangerous constitutional precedent. Pincus details how U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer ruled Trump’s actions illegal, citing violations of both statutory authority and the Tenth Amendment. Trump activated 2,000 Guard troops without notifying Governor Gavin Newsom, as required by law, to quell protests sparked by aggressive Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids. The move, based on claims of rebellion, bypassed necessary coordination with state authorities and left open the possibility of federalizing other states’ Guards. Pincus stresses that 20 states have joined California in challenging this unprecedented power grab, arguing that the June 7 memo's vague wording threatens state sovereignty nationwide. With the case now before the Ninth Circuit Court, Pincus concludes the outcome could have sweeping implications for the balance of power between state and federal governments. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS

Trump leaves the G7 summit early after major warning to Tehran.President Donald Trump abruptly announced his early departure Monday from the G7 summit in Canada amid escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. Just hours before leaving, Trump posted on Truth Social: “IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” His dramatic warning followed Israeli strikes in Tehran and heightened fears of broader regional war. The U.S. has supported Israel’s defense but remains officially uninvolved in the strikes. Trump cited the need to “attend to important matters” as the reason for cutting short his trip. During the summit, he finalized a trade deal with the UK. Before leaving, he also joined other leaders in signing a statement criticizing Iran. Trump had previously refused to sign the statement, but decided to do so when the draft language was adjusted. His departure canceled planned meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and others on Tuesday. BloombergAxiosReutersThe Times of Israel

Trump says he left G7 early to seek a ‘real end’ to Israel-Iran conflict, not just a ceasefire. As he departed the G7 summit in Canada, Trump told reporters he was seeking “a real end, not a cease-fire,” and that Tehran must abandon any effort to develop nuclear weapons. “I’m not too much in the mood to negotiate,” he added. Trump predicted that Israel would not be easing its attacks on Iran. "You're going to find out over the next two days. You're going to find out. Nobody's slowed up so far," a CBS journalist quoted Trump as saying on Air Force One. His remarks came as Israel and Iran traded attacks for a fifth day on Tuesday. The Iranian armed forces also warned Israel of a new wave of “fierce attacks” with “new and advanced weapons” that will intensify on Tuesday. CNN Politico EUReuters

US bolsters Trump's Middle East military options by moving refueling aircraft, officials say. In response to escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran, the U.S. has expanded its military posture in the Middle East and Europe. Over 30 U.S. Air Force refueling aircraft have been deployed to European bases, enabling extended operations across the region. The aircraft carrier USS Nimitz and its strike group are rerouting to the Middle East, joining other U.S. naval assets already positioned there. These moves provide President Donald Trump with a broader range of strategic options, though the Pentagon maintains they are defensive. While the U.S. has not joined Israel's strikes, it has supported missile defense efforts and bolstered deterrence. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasized the protection of U.S. forces. ReutersWashington Post

Trump disputes intel chief Tulsi Gabbard’s prior testimony on Iran's nuclear capabilities. President Donald Trump publicly contradicted his own Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, over Iran’s nuclear status, insisting to reporters that Iran was “very close” to developing a nuclear weapon. His assessment follows Gabbard’s testimony in March that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon and had not resumed its reportedly suspended program. Trump dismissed Gabbard’s assessment, stating to reporters on Air Force One, “I don’t care what she said. I think they were very close to having it.” U.S. intelligence had maintained that Iran is still years away from being able to produce and deliver a nuclear weapon. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, aligned with Trump, claims Israeli intelligence showed Iran was secretly accelerating its nuclear weapons development. CNN

G7 leaders agree on strategy to protect critical mineral supply, draft document says. At the G7 summit in Canada, leaders provisionally agreed on a joint strategy Monday to protect critical mineral supply chains, aiming to bolster economic and national security. The draft statement—still awaiting approval from U.S. President Donald Trump—emphasizes the need for minerals markets to reflect the true costs of responsible extraction and trade. The move follows China’s April suspension of critical mineral exports, which disrupted supply to key industries. The G7 plans to counter non-market practices by diversifying mining, processing, and recycling, while enhancing coordination to mitigate future supply disruptions. Rare earths remain a strategic leverage point for Beijing. Reuters

Starmer, Trump Agree to Implement Tariff-Cutting Trade Deal. At the G7 summit in Canada, U.S. President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer finalized a trade agreement on Monday aimed at reducing tariffs and expanding market access. The deal lowers U.S. tariffs on British auto exports from 27.5% to 10% for up to 100,000 vehicles annually, and grants tariff exemptions for UK civil aerospace products. In return, the UK will increase quotas for U.S. agricultural goods, including reciprocal access for 13,000 metric tons of beef, although UK food safety standards will still apply. The agreement falls short on steel, with existing 25% tariffs remaining in place, pending a future quota to be set by the U.S. Commerce Department. The UK also pledged to address U.S. concerns over foreign ownership in its steel sector. Though symbolically important, the deal leaves unresolved issues, particularly around steel and aluminum, while serving as an early success for Trump’s broader tariff strategy. BloombergReuters

CNN Fact check: At G7, Trump makes false claims about Trudeau, Ukraine and immigration. At the G7 summit in Canada on Monday, President Donald Trump made several inaccurate claims. He wrongly attributed Russia’s 2014 expulsion from the G8 to former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who did not take office until 2015. The move was actually led by then-Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Trump also mischaracterized his UK trade deal as involving the European Union, which the UK exited in 2020. Additionally, he repeated the false claim that former President Joe Biden provided Ukraine with $350 billion in aid. According to the Kiel Institute, U.S. commitments totaled around $138 billion by April 2025, with actual disbursements closer to $90 billion. Trump further overstated immigration figures, claiming Biden allowed 21 million people into the U.S.; available data indicates fewer than 11 million migrant encounters occurred under Biden, with an estimated 2.2 million additional undetected entries, falling well short of Trump’s figure. CNN

Trump Renews Embrace of Putin Amid Ongoing Rift With Allies.Before leaving the G7 summit in Canada a day early on Monday, President Donald Trump reignited concerns over his long standing alignment with President Vladimir Putin, criticizing Russia’s 2014 expulsion from the G8 and blaming Western leaders for the ongoing war in Ukraine. Echoing remarks he made in 2018, Trump argued Russia’s presence is needed for negotiations and emphasized his unique rapport with Putin, whom he said “speaks to me; he doesn’t speak to anybody else.” Despite Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Trump has expressed frustration with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, and has floated Putin as a potential Middle East mediator. His remarks reinforced a pattern of undermining U.S. allies while defending Moscow, raising alarm among Western leaders. Former officials like John Bolton and Daniel Price criticized Trump’s historical ignorance and his seeming desire to rehabilitate Putin rather than stand with the pro-Ukraine defense consensus. Trump’s rhetoric highlights an enduring drift toward Russian interests at odds with U.S. and NATO priorities. New York Times

DHS reverses guidance that halted ICE raids on farms, hotels and restaurants. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has reversed recent guidance that would have paused immigration raids at farms, hotels, restaurants, and meatpacking plants. This shift aligns with President Trump’s push for a massive deportation campaign targeting undocumented immigrants. The earlier exemption, issued last week, came after Trump expressed concern for farmers and hospitality executives worried about losing workers. However, following pressure from White House officials—particularly immigration adviser Stephen Miller—DHS told Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on Monday to resume worksite enforcement nationwide. Trump has since ordered ICE to fully execute what he calls the largest mass deportation effort in U.S. history. ICE has been instructed to reach 3,000 arrests per day, up from the current 2,000. Industries dependent on undocumented labor continue lobbying against broad enforcement. The policy shift highlights competing interests within the administration and growing tensions between economic and political priorities. Washington Post ReutersThe Independent

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russian missile and drone strikes on Kyiv kill 15, injure at least 114.In one of the deadliest assaults on Kyiv in months, Russia launched a nearly 10-hour overnight barrage of drones and missiles on Tuesday, killing at least 15 and injuring 114. President Volodymyr Zelensky called the assault "one of the most horrifying attacks on Kyiv," saying more than 440 drones and 32 missiles were launched across Ukraine overnight. Air raid sirens blared as explosions echoed across the capital, damaging buildings in at least six districts, including Solomianskyi and Sviatoshynskyi. Several residential buildings were destroyed or set ablaze, and a kindergarten and a dormitory at the Kyiv Aviation Institute were also hit. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported that a 62-year-old U.S. citizen was found dead in the Solomianskyi district near a building where medics were treating victims. While it is unclear whether a strike directly killed him, his death occurred during the attack. Rescue teams continue searching for survivors under rubble amid reports of people still trapped. The strike follows a surge in Russian assaults in May and June, marked by drone swarms followed by missile salvos to overwhelm defenses. Also, Russian strikes on Odesa early Tuesday killed 1 and injured 17 people. New York Times Kyiv Independent

Cluster munitions used in overnight Russian strike on Ukraine, Kyiv mayor says. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported that emergency crews found fragments of cluster munitions in the city’s Nyvky neighborhood following a Russian missile and drone attack on Tuesday. He called it further proof of Russia’s "genocide" against Ukrainians. Cluster munitions are banned by over 100 countries due to their indiscriminate impact and danger to civilians. Though neither Russia nor Ukraine signed the treaty, rights groups have condemned their use in populated areas by both sides. Kyiv Independent

Russia ramps up its summer offensive in several directions, Ukraine's military says. Ukraine’s military reported a sharp escalation in Russia’s summer offensive across multiple fronts on Monday. Victor Tregubov, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Khortytsia group, said Russian forces had intensified attacks in the Novopavlivka and Kharkiv sectors. Ukraine’s General Staff recorded 99 clashes that day, including 17 repelled assaults in Novopavlivka alone. Tregubov said this marked the “expected summer increase in activity” and suggested Russia aimed to push toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, though without success. In Donetsk Oblast, Russia is attempting to encircle Kostiantynivka, a vital logistics hub, from three directions. On June 13, President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed heavy fighting along the northeastern border and noted Russian incursions in Sumy and brief cross-border actions into Dnipropetrovsk. Kyiv Independent

Russian military-industrial chemical plant halts operations after Ukrainian drone strike. Ukraine’s drone strike forced the suspension of operations at Russia’s Nevinnomyssk Azot chemical plant, a major producer of ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers vital to the Kremlin’s military-industrial complex, Russian independent media outlet Astra reported on Monday. The plant supplies components for explosives and fuel, including ammonium nitrate and dual-use chemicals like melamine and methanol. Ukrainian officials say the facility supports weapons production, including grenade launchers and rocket charges. Owned by sanctioned oligarch Andrey Melnichenko, the plant’s shutdown marks a blow to Russia’s war infrastructure. Kyiv Independent

Russian air defense units destroy 51 Ukrainian drones over the Belgorod region. Russian air defense units destroyed 51 Ukrainian drones over the border Belgorod region over a 3-1/2 hour period late on Monday, the Defense Ministry said. A ministry statement on the Telegram messaging app said the drones were destroyed between 8 p.m. and 11.30 p.m. in the region. Reuters

Russia Is Churning Out Attack Drones. Ukraine Is Feeling the Impact. Russia has dramatically escalated its drone campaign against Ukraine in 2025, launching over 20,000 attack and decoy drones to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. Many of these drones are domestically produced Shahed models, part of a $1.75 billion deal with Iran that allowed Moscow to manufacture the drones on Russian soil. On June 10 alone, 315 drones and seven missiles struck Kyiv, damaging historic landmarks like St. Sophia Cathedral. Ukrainian officials say the scale and frequency of these attacks aim to saturate defenses and cause chaos. Ukraine has responded with counterstrikes, including deep drone attacks on Russian production sites. However, Ukraine's air defenses—dependent on limited Patriot systems—remain stretched. President Trump has rebuked Russia for civilian casualties but resisted new sanctions or major military aid. Russia uses a mix of drone types and tactics, including staggered swarm attacks and missile combinations, often launched from Crimea. Ukrainian forces rely on mobile air-defense units, jets, and German systems to counter the threat. Wall Street Journal

The drone is almost becoming like an exceedingly accurate artillery round. And of course the innovation of these just continues… There is a back and forth between the two sides, because the Russians deserve credit for their innovation as well and their ability to mass produce stuff as they go along… [Ukraine] may produce as many as 3.5 million drones this year alone.

General David Petraeus (Ret.)

NatSecEDGE

Trump hints at no more US sanctions on Russia at G7 summit. President Donald Trump signaled opposition Monday to imposing new U.S. sanctions on Russia over its war in Ukraine. He told reporters at the G7 summit in Canada that sanctions “cost the U.S. a lot of money — a tremendous amount of money,” describing them as complex and economically burdensome. Trump added, “It’s not just a one-way street,” and emphasized that sanctions involve “billions and billions of dollars.” In response to European calls for stronger action, Trump said, “Let’s see them do it first,” implying that the U.S. would not lead on additional sanctions. He also expressed a preference for pursuing stalled peace talks with Russia before taking punitive measures and questioned whether fresh sanctions would be effective without prior commitments from European allies. Politico EUBloomberg

Trump administration disbands group focused on pressuring Russia, sources say. The Trump administration recently shut down an inter-agency working group formed to pressure Russia into advancing peace talks with Ukraine, U.S. officials told Reuters. Created earlier in 2025, the group lost momentum in May as President Trump grew disinterested in a tougher stance on Moscow. Its dissolution followed a major purge of the White House National Security Council, including key Ukraine experts. Though the group had discussed economic and covert options to curb Russian influence, it never finalized strategies. The move has raised concerns among U.S. allies, especially ahead of a key NATO summit. Reuters

Zelensky to seek G7 support as Trump's early exit puts dampener on summit.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will on Tuesday urge the Group of Seven to provide more backing for the war against Russia even after U.S. President Donald Trump left the summit early due to developments in the Middle East. Zelensky is due to meet Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in the morning before attending a G7 working breakfast on "A strong and sovereign Ukraine", accompanied by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Reuters

Ukraine’s field hospitals keep getting hit, so they are moving underground. Facing relentless Russian attacks on medical sites, Ukrainian medics have built the country’s first underground field hospital near the eastern front. Located nearly 20 feet below ground and reinforced with metal structures, the facility enables surgeries in relative safety and has withstood multiple near misses. Medics say Russia deliberately targets field hospitals—a war crime—forcing them to abandon NATO-style surface clinics in favor of concealed, fortified designs. Staff work in 48-hour shifts, treating shrapnel wounds, chemical exposure, and amputations. The hospital, largely built through donations, handles up to 400 patients daily but lacks funding for advanced equipment due to shifts in foreign aid following the change in U.S. leadership. Medics fear that superficial peace talks may lead to renewed violence if not backed by real security guarantees. Amid exhaustion and trauma, they continue—underground and under threat. Washington Post

Instead of respecting [U.S.] efforts to secure a peaceful settlement to the war, Putin is challenging [President Trump’s] authority and insulting [Trump] each time he launches new attacks on Ukrainian villages and cities. He will not stop killing civilians… Each time Putin allows his Armed Forces to launch attacks, he is sending the world a message that he does not respect the U.S… To end the war, it is time for [the U.S.] to move forward with the introduction of those sanctions, increase U.S. military support to the Ukrainian Armed Forces and place greater pressure on those countries that continue to trade with Moscow to end that trade until Moscow is ready to make peace.

Glenn Corn

Dear Mr. President: A Former CIA Officer’s Unvarnished Brief on Putin

Ukraine Takes First Step Toward Carrying Out Minerals Deal With U.S. Ukraine has taken its first concrete step toward implementing a U.S.-Ukraine minerals agreement signed in April, which grants the U.S. a stake in the extraction of critical resources. On Monday, Kyiv began drafting recommendations to open bidding for the Dobra lithium field, one of Ukraine’s largest. Among the likely bidders for a production-sharing agreement is a consortium of investors that includes TechMet, an energy investment firm partly owned by the U.S. government, and Ronald S. Lauder, a billionaire friend of President Trump. Half of Ukraine’s mineral revenue would go to a joint investment fund with the U.S., partly framed as repayment for wartime aid. The U.S. sees Ukraine’s mineral reserves—including lithium, titanium, and graphite—as key to reducing reliance on China. However, analysts caution that most projects may take a decade to mature due to war, outdated surveys, and infrastructure damage. To accelerate profits, Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko also proposed expanding the fund to support Ukraine’s undercapitalized but growing defense sector. New York Times

Ukraine says repatriation of war dead over after 1,245 more bodies received from Russia. Ukraine announced the completion of a large-scale repatriation of war dead, receiving 1,245 more bodies from Russia on Monday under an agreement reached during recent talks in Istanbul. In total, over 6,000 Ukrainian soldiers’ remains have been returned since the agreement took effect last week, marking one of the largest such exchanges since the war began. Russia reported handing over 6,060 bodies, while Ukraine confirmed receiving 6,057. In return, Russia received the remains of 78 soldiers Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Monday, June 16. Russia appears to be depleting its Soviet-era tank stock more slowly, likely due to increased use of motorcycles and ATVs to offset drone-related losses. Satellite imagery shows Russia upgrading at least five nuclear-related facilities in western Russia and Belarus, signaling continued strategic military development.

EUROPE

Russia says U.S. has canceled next round of talks on easing tensions. Russia said Monday that the United States had canceled the next round of bilateral talks aimed at easing diplomatic tensions, without providing a reason. The discussions, initiated after President Donald Trump returned to office in January, were focused on resolving issues affecting U.S. and Russian diplomatic missions and had been set to move from Istanbul to Moscow. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova expressed hope that the pause would be brief. Despite five recent phone calls between Presidents Trump and Putin, including one on June 14, progress on broader U.S.-Russia relations and the war in Ukraine remains limited. The U.S. State Department has not commented on the cancellation. ReutersBloomberg

French finance companies launch European defense investment fund. Four major French financial firms—Tikehau Capital, Societe Generale Assurances, CNP Assurances, and CARAC Group—launched the Tikehau Defense and Security fund with an initial commitment of €150 million ($173.4 million). Backed by France’s Ministry of Defence, the fund aims to support European defense and security amid rising geopolitical tensions, particularly due to the Russia-Ukraine war. It aligns with the EU’s broader rearmament effort, which includes up to €800 billion earmarked for defense by 2030. CARAC CEO Michel Andignac said the fund supports French and European strategic autonomy through investment in defense-related companies. Reuters

Europeans rush drone-based radar jammers in effort to supplant US tech. European NATO countries are increasingly investing in drone-based electronic warfare (EW) systems to reduce reliance on U.S. capabilities and counter rising threats, especially from Russia. Italy’s Leonardo is leading with its StormShroud jammer drone, based on its BriteStorm system, which has drawn interest from 10–20 NATO members. These drones provide cost-effective, stand-in jamming close to hostile defenses, essential for Eastern European countries facing extended threat zones. The shift reflects lessons from Ukraine, where drones play key roles in EW and decoy missions. Competing systems from Raytheon, Hensoldt, and Thales are also advancing, while EU-backed initiatives like REACT aim to develop integrated, multi-platform EW solutions. Defense News

Europe's frontier countries ready their hospitals for war. Countries along NATO’s eastern flank—especially Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland—are rapidly preparing their healthcare systems for the possibility of war, prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and fears of future conflict. These nations are conducting mass casualty drills, hardening hospital infrastructure, stockpiling trauma supplies, and equipping medical staff with body armor. Facilities are being adapted for wartime resilience, including underground operating rooms and satellite communications. Staffing remains a challenge, with surveys showing many healthcare workers might flee during conflict. Latvia and Estonia are reinforcing system-wide crisis training, while Lithuania is hosting multiple military-medical exercises. Meanwhile, refugee and patient overflow planning is becoming a pan-European concern, with European Union solidarity likely to be tested in a major conflict. Experts warn that casualty rates could vastly exceed Ukraine’s, underscoring the urgency of coordinated medical preparedness and supply planning across the continent. As one official put it: “Crisis never shouts when it’s coming.” Politico EU

I actually see a lot of very good progress… What I'm seeing is that people are trying to think through the problem of the trade-off between current readiness, fixing the kit that they have to be able to fight tonight, versus investment in that long-term readiness, buying the next level, and they're looking at some pretty ruthless prioritization to figure out how to do this… Most capitals have determined that Mr. Putin is not a partner, he's an enemy.

General Philip M. Breedlove

As U.S. Commitment Wanes, Europe Faces Questions About its Own Defense

Russia fears Israel’s conflict with Iran could cost it another Mideast ally.Russia initially saw Israel’s strikes on Iran as an opportunity to divert global attention from Ukraine and raise oil prices. However, as the conflict deepens, Moscow fears losing Iran—its closest Middle East ally. Regime change in Tehran could weaken Russia’s anti-Western alliance, especially after it has already lost sway in Syria. The Kremlin is alarmed by Iran’s vulnerability, though some analysts warn external pressure might rally Iranian unity. While Russia benefits in the short term from rising oil revenues, the risk of regional escalation—and even global war—looms. If Iran’s regime falls, future leadership is unlikely to favor Moscow, threatening Russia’s regional influence and strategic partnerships. Washington Post

Satellite images show expansion at 5 Russian nuclear sites near Europe. Satellite imagery analyzed by Planet Labs and reported by Swedish broadcaster SVT reveals that Russia has expanded and modernized at least five nuclear-related sites near Europe. Key upgrades include a suspected nuclear storage facility in Kaliningrad, now with reinforced fencing and new buildings—possibly housing up to 100 tactical warheads. Renovations are also underway at Osipovichi in Belarus, Novaya Zemlya in the Arctic, and the Kola Peninsula near Finland and Norway, which now hosts dozens of bunkers and a submarine missile-loading pier. Sweden, a new NATO member as of March 2024, is monitoring the developments closely amid rising Russian nuclear saber-rattling. Kyiv Independent

Danish military using robotic sailboats for surveillance in Baltic and North seas. Denmark has deployed four uncrewed “Voyager” sailboats, built by California-based firm Saildrone, for a three-month trial to bolster maritime surveillance amid rising tensions in the Baltic and North Seas. These 10-meter vessels, powered by wind and solar energy, carry advanced sensors and AI-driven systems capable of detecting threats like undersea cable sabotage, illegal fishing, and smuggling. The initiative follows incidents such as the Nord Stream pipeline explosion and repeated disruptions to undersea cables, which Western officials largely attribute to Russia’s “shadow fleet” and hybrid warfare tactics. Two Voyagers joined NATO patrols earlier this month, with two more launched from Koge Marina near Copenhagen. Denmark’s Defense Ministry says the trial aims to strengthen monitoring of critical infrastructure in under-observed waters. The use of these autonomous vessels is part of NATO’s broader plan to create a cost-effective, layered maritime surveillance system that reduces reliance on expensive warship patrols while enhancing constant monitoring of potential threats. Associated Press

MI6 Names Its First Female Chief, Career Spy Blaise Metreweli. Blaise Metreweli has been named the first female chief of MI6, the United Kingdom’s foreign intelligence service, in its 116-year history. A career intelligence officer who previously served as the agency’s director general of technology and innovation—referred to internally as “Q”—Metreweli will succeed Richard Moore as the public-facing “C” this fall. Known for her operational experience in the Middle East and Europe, Metreweli has maintained a low public profile and is expected to bring a deeply technical, insider’s perspective to the role. Her appointment comes amid rising global threats, including cyberattacks and Russian espionage, and at a time when coordination with the U.S. intelligence community is complicated by concerns over President Trump’s ties to Vladimir Putin. Prime Minister Keir Starmer hailed the move as historic, while Metreweli emphasized MI6’s role in protecting the U.K. and its allies. Her selection echoes the U.S. decision to appoint Gina Haspel as the first female CIA director, and reflects broader efforts to diversify the British intelligence community while adapting to the demands of modern, technology-driven espionage. New York TimesBBCCNNla Repubblica

EU Faces Struggle to Cut Russia Oil Price Cap on Mideast Risk.The European Union is struggling to lower the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel amid U.S. resistance and a surge in global oil prices following Israeli strikes on Iran. The EU’s proposal, backed by the UK, aims to cut Russia’s oil revenues used to fund its war in Ukraine. However, several EU countries are hesitant to proceed without U.S. support, fearing limited impact without full G7 enforcement. The recent spike in crude prices—driven by fears of conflict escalation and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—has further complicated the initiative’s prospects. Final approval hinges on President Donald Trump’s decision. Bloomberg

THE MIDDLE EAST

U.S. tells allies it won't join war unless Iran targets Americans. The Trump administration has reportedly told Middle Eastern allies that it will not get directly involved in the Israel-Iran war unless Tehran targets Americans. While the U.S. has assisted Israel in intercepting missiles, it stressed that Israel is acting alone in its offensive. This stance was communicated to regional allies both before and after the war began, likely in hopes they would convey it to Iran to deter retaliation against U.S. forces. Despite Iranian threats, no attacks on Americans have occurred, and Tehran appears cautious not to provoke U.S. involvement. Israel has urged Washington to join the war to eliminate Iran's nuclear program, but the Trump administration has declined, with the president also vetoing the idea of assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Although the U.S. is not participating militarily, it is moving assets like the Nimitz carrier group to the region in case of escalation. President Trump said Iran should negotiate soon, while Israel has shown no interest in a ceasefire until its military goals are met. Axios

[Iran] could launch attacks with their missiles against our forces in Iraq and Syria, our bases in the region, and our friends in the region as well… If they did that, they're going to kill Americans. That's probably going to bring the United States into this war. And if the United States comes into this war as a result of an Iranian attack on American troops, I don't know that regime change would be off the table. They've got to be very much aware of this. We should remember that the overall priority for Iranian statecraft remains regime preservation.

General Frank McKenzie (Ret.)

The Cipher Brief YouTube Channel: When It Comes to Iran, "We Have Plans"

G7 expresses support for Israel, calls Iran source of instability. The G7 has issued a unified statement backing Israel's right to self-defense and condemning Iran as “the principal source of regional instability and terror” amid escalating hostilities following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites. The declaration, issued during a summit in Canada, emphasized that Iran must never achieve nuclear weapons and called for broader de-escalation, including a Gaza ceasefire. President Trump left the summit early to address the crisis, while G7 leaders pledged to coordinate on stabilizing energy markets and safeguarding civilians. Reuters

A Battered Iran Signals It Wants to De-Escalate Hostilities With Israel and Negotiate. Middle Eastern and European officials have revealed that Iran is urgently seeking to end hostilities and resume nuclear talks, sending messages through Arab intermediaries to both the U.S. and Israel. Tehran has indicated it is open to negotiations if the U.S. refrains from joining Israeli attacks. While Iran has attempted to contain the conflict, however, Israel continues to carry out its air campaign, aiming to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities and weaken its regime. Though Iran’s military has suffered heavy losses, its nuclear infrastructure remains largely intact, and Israel plans at least two more weeks of strikes. Despite international calls for a ceasefire, including from French President Macron, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu insists attacks will continue until military goals are met. Iran warns it may escalate its nuclear program if talks don’t resume, and wants assurances that Washington won’t enter the war. Arab states are pressuring the U.S. to rein in Israel, fearing regional escalation that could threaten energy infrastructure and global markets. Wall Street Journal

Israel attacks Iranian state media buildings in Tehran. Israel attacked buildings in Tehran linked to an Iranian state-run media company during a live broadcast on Monday, and claimed to have killed four senior Iranian intelligence officials in a strike on the Revolutionary Guard’s headquarters. Footage shows an anchor at the Islamic Republic of Iran News Network rushing off camera when a strike hit, with dust and rubble filling the studio. According to the station, the building was struck by four bombs, and Iranian reports say one woman died of injuries sustained in the attack. Israel’s defense minister said its strikes targeted the “Iranian regime’s propaganda and incitement broadcasting authority.” The Committee to Protect Journalists condemned the action. On social media, U.S. President Trump urged evacuation from Tehran. Iran reports at least 224 civilian deaths, while Israeli casualties from Iranian attacks have reached 24, with over 500 wounded. In Tehran, panic has set in, with residents crowding gas stations and fleeing the city amid fears of further strikes. Wall Street JournalBloombergJerusalem PostAssociated PressAxios

Israeli military claims killing of Iranian ‘war chief of staff.’ The Israeli military has claimed that it killed Major General Ali Shadmani, Iran's top military commander and head of the Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters, in an airstrike just four days after he took over the role. He had succeeded Maj. Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid, who was killed in Israel’s initial wave of strikes. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) described Shadmani as Iran’s de facto war chief and a close confidant of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. As commander of both the Revolutionary Guards and the regular armed forces, Shadmani was responsible for directing Iran’s combat operations and attack plans. His death marks another major blow to the Islamic Republic’s military leadership amid the escalating conflict with Israel. Times of IsraelReuters

Trump’s Iran Choice: Last-Chance Diplomacy or a Bunker-Busting Bomb. President Trump is facing a pivotal decision in the escalating Israel-Iran conflict: whether to join Israel in striking Iran’s heavily fortified Fordo nuclear facility, which only U.S. B-2 bombers equipped with Massive Ordnance Penetrators can destroy. While Trump has promoted diplomacy and signaled interest in restarting nuclear talks, Iranian officials have warned that any U.S. involvement in direct attacks would kill the prospects for negotiation. Still, behind the scenes, Trump has encouraged Vice President JD Vance and envoy Steve Witkoff to pursue a potential diplomatic meeting with Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, who has indicated openness—if the U.S. reins in Israeli strikes. The dilemma underscores a deep divide within Trump’s political base and the national security establishment. Hawks like Senator Lindsey Graham urge Trump to fully support Israel militarily, while non-interventionists like Tucker Carlson insist the U.S. should avoid another Middle East war. Defense officials are also divided, with some warning that involvement in Iran would divert resources from strategic competition with China. For now, Trump is balancing both paths—holding out diplomacy as an option while keeping the threat of bunker-buster strikes on the table to force Iran’s hand. Ultimately, the decision will determine whether the U.S. becomes a combatant in a rapidly intensifying regional war. New York Times

Iran’s Best-Protected Nuclear Site Is Deep Underground. Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility, buried deep within a mountain, is its most fortified site and central to its uranium enrichment program. Only the U.S. military possesses the 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs and B-2 stealth bombers capable of destroying it—capabilities Israel lacks. While Israel has launched strikes on Iranian infrastructure and gained temporary air superiority, experts agree that Fordo remains a highly challenging and resilient target. Without U.S. support, Israel may only be able to temporarily disable the site by targeting adjacent power facilities or using special operations forces, though such actions carry high risk. The U.S. has long resisted transferring bunker busters to Israel to avoid provoking a broader war, and any American strike would carry significant geopolitical and military consequences. As President Trump weighs his options, he faces pressure from hawks pushing for decisive action and caution from noninterventionists wary of entangling the U.S. in another Middle East conflict. New York Times

How Missile Defense Works (and Why It Fails). In the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, Iran has launched waves of ballistic missiles at Israeli targets, testing the limits of even the world’s most advanced missile defense systems. While some missiles are intercepted, many break through due to the extreme difficulty of tracking and destroying warheads that travel at hypersonic speeds through space and re-enter the atmosphere within minutes. Israel’s multi-layered defense—including systems like Arrow 3, Arrow 2, THAAD, Patriot, and Iron Dome—works in tandem with U.S. assets, but can still be overwhelmed by large volleys, decoys, and debris confusion. The closer a missile gets to impact, the harder it is to stop, and even successful interceptions can cause deadly fallout. With no clear off-ramp and both sides entrenched, the conflict risks escalating into a battle of endurance as each side tests how long the other can sustain missile fire. New York Times

How Tough Is Iran? A String of Military Losses Raises Questions. Iran, long portrayed as a major global threat due to its nuclear ambitions and regional influence, has seen its power and deterrence unravel following a series of devastating blows from Israel. Since the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas in late 2023, Iran has lost key allies, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime, while enduring major Israeli strikes on its air defenses, leadership, and nuclear infrastructure. Israel now has air superiority over the country, having even launched attacks from within Iranian territory and killed senior military figures and nuclear scientists. Iran’s strategy of relying on regional proxies and missile threats has proven ineffective, as those proxies have been weakened and its missile arsenal is being depleted faster than it can be replenished. With limited options, hesitancy to drag in the U.S., and improved ties with Gulf states constraining its actions, Iran faces a strategic dead end. Experts warn that this isolation and vulnerability may drive Tehran to pursue a nuclear weapon more openly than before. New York Times

Chinese embassy in Israel urges citizens to leave. The Chinese embassy in Israel has advised its citizens to leave the country immediately, citing the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran and the worsening security situation. In a notice posted Tuesday on WeChat, the embassy warned of rising civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure. With Israeli airspace still closed, Chinese nationals were urged to exit via land border crossings, particularly the route into Jordan. Reuters

Lebanese leaders indirectly urge Hezbollah to stay out of the Israel-Iran conflict. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have urged the country to remain neutral in the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, warning that involvement would worsen Lebanon’s already dire economic and political crisis. Their remarks, delivered during a Cabinet meeting on Monday, served as a clear message to Hezbollah—a powerful Iran-backed militant group in Lebanon—not to reignite hostilities. Hezbollah previously engaged in heavy fighting with Israel following Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack, resulting in over 4,000 Lebanese deaths and $11 billion in damages before a U.S.-brokered ceasefire took effect. With much of Hezbollah’s leadership lost in recent conflict, Lebanon’s leaders are seeking to avoid further devastation. Associated Press

Israeli tank fire kills 51 people in Gaza crowd trying to get food. Israeli tank fire killed at least 51 Palestinians and wounded over 200 in Khan Younis, Gaza, as a crowd gathered near stalled aid trucks, seeking food. Witnesses said Israeli forces allowed the crowd to advance before firing shells. The Israeli military acknowledged firing in the area and is reviewing the incident. Gaza authorities report hundreds killed at similar aid sites in recent weeks. The deadly strike deepens the humanitarian crisis amid Israel’s ongoing war on Hamas, which has killed nearly 55,000 Palestinians since October 2023. World Health Organization officials said that the organization had received reports of a mass casualty incident on Tuesday that affected people waiting for food supplies, saying that initial reports point to at least 20 fatalities. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

What the capsizing and relaunching of a warship tells us about North Korea's regime. The global attention on North Korea’s recent warship mishap stems less from the technical failure and more from Kim Jong Un’s unusually public and forceful response. When the 5,000-ton destroyer capsized during its launch in May, Kim called it a “criminal act” caused by "absolute carelessness and irresponsibility,” and swiftly ordered repairs and arrests. Analysts say this reveals both North Korea’s determination to build a nuclear-armed navy and Kim’s evolving propaganda strategy. Rather than conceal failure, Kim chose to publicize it, punish those responsible, and then turn the rapid repair into a symbol of state competence and loyalty. The ship, one of two new destroyers, marks a major step in Pyongyang’s effort to close the naval power gap with adversaries like the U.S., South Korea, and Japan. Experts warn the regime’s ambitions—once regarded with global skepticism—are advancing quickly. Kim’s ultimate goal appears to be transforming North Korea’s outdated navy into a global force capable of launching nuclear strikes, which poses growing security risks. BBC

US pushes Vietnam to decouple from Chinese tech, sources say. The U.S. is pressuring Vietnam to reduce its reliance on Chinese technology in electronics assembled for export to America, aiming to restructure global supply chains and accelerate decoupling from China. Companies like Apple, Samsung, Meta, and Google rely on Vietnamese factories that often use Chinese components. The Trump administration has threatened 46% tariffs on Vietnam-made goods if changes aren’t made by July 8. Vietnam has begun meeting with local firms to increase domestic tech production, but businesses warn they need time and resources to adjust. The U.S. also wants Hanoi to address deceptive “Made in Vietnam” labeling on Chinese goods. Despite some progress in talks, major issues remain unresolved. While Vietnam is eager to grow its industrial base, its tech supply chain still lags China’s by 15–20 years. Rapid changes risk straining ties with Beijing, a key investor and trading partner. A possible meeting between President Trump and Vietnam’s top leader is expected in late June. Reuters

China’s state security agency warns of phishing emails sent by foreign spies. China's top spy agency on Tuesday accused foreign intelligence services of sending phishing emails with Trojan malware to Chinese military research institutes, universities, and government bodies. In one case, a shipbuilding expert at a major university received a fake job application containing a password-protected resume embedded with malicious software. The malware, once opened, could have allowed hackers to take control of the recipient’s computer and steal data. However, no sensitive information was stored on the device. The Ministry of State Security warned that phishing remains a key tactic for foreign espionage and urged strict cybersecurity practices for anyone handling confidential information. South China Morning Post

Paris Air Show: China gives glimpse of 5th-gen J-35A fighter model in bid for foreign sales. China has showcased a scale model of its new fifth-generation fighter jet, the J-35A, for the first time overseas at the Paris Air Show, aiming to boost international sales of its advanced military aircraft. Developed by Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, the J-35A is a land-based variant of the J-35, originally designed for aircraft carriers, and first flew in September 2023. While Europe has ruled out buying Chinese military jets, demand has grown in developing nations, with Pakistan reportedly offered 40 J-35s. China also promoted the J-10CE, a 4.5-generation fighter used by Pakistan since 2022, and the widely exported JF-17. These aircraft were presented alongside Western jets like the F-35A and Rafale. China’s rising presence in global arms markets—especially in the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa—reflects its strategic push to compete with Western defense manufacturers, though geopolitical tensions continue to shape buyer decisions and deployment claims remain contested. South China Morning Post

Swedish weapons think tank reports rapid expansion of Chinese nuclear arsenal. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reports that China's nuclear arsenal is growing faster than any other country. According to SIPRI, China's intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force is on pace to equal that of Russia or the U.S. by the turn of the decade. The Swedish weapons research think tank noted that China has added 100 more warheads to its nuclear stockpile each year since 2023 for a total of at least 600. In addition, China has completed construction of about 350 new ICBM silos located in the country's northern desert areas or in three mountainous areas to the east. The SIPRI report said China deployed the DF-41 missile equipped with MIRV technology within the past five years to complement previous deployments of DF-5 ICBMs. The report went on to project that if each of the new silos was filled with a missile equipped with three MIRVs, the number of warheads could increase to more than 1200. SIPRI said China is in “the middle of a significant modernization and expansion of its nuclear arsenal” as it refits its Type 094 ballistic missile submarines with longer-range missiles while also developing a new Type 096 SSBN and strategic bomber aircraft. South China Morning Post

China's Xi meets Kazakh leader Tokayev, widen cooperation, Xinhua says. China and Kazakhstan signed multiple cooperation agreements on trade, investment, technology, tourism, and customs during a meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana. According to China’s state-run Xinhua news agency, Xi emphasized the importance of multilateralism and protecting the shared interests of developing nations. He also urged progress on cross-border railway and port infrastructure projects, while calling for deeper collaboration in law enforcement and defense to combat terrorism, separatism, and extremism. Reuters

AFRICA

Sudan in danger of self-destructing as conflict and famine reign. Sudan's devastating civil war has reached a stalemate, with neither the army nor the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) able to secure a decisive victory. The Sudanese people are bearing the brunt, suffering famine, mass displacement, and a deepening humanitarian crisis. The army, led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, managed to recapture parts of Khartoum with new weapons from regional allies, but stalled soon after. The RSF, under Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), retaliated with advanced drone strikes and formed alliances to expand its operations. In Darfur, a brutal siege by the RSF is triggering fears of ethnic cleansing. Despite diplomatic efforts, including an April conference in London, peace remains elusive due to regional divisions, and the UN's approach has proven unrealistic. Meanwhile, civic groups struggle to survive amid repression and defunding. With over half the population displaced and nearly a million at risk of famine, Sudan faces the world’s largest humanitarian disaster—largely neglected by the international community. BBC

Amid democratic backsliding, Togo suspends French broadcasters RFI and France 24. Togo has suspended broadcasts by French state-owned media outlets Radio France Internationale (RFI) and France 24 for three months, accusing them of biased and inaccurate reporting that allegedly threatens national stability. The country's media regulator cited repeated failures in impartiality, fact-checking, and journalistic rigor. While no specific examples were given, the suspension comes amid rising political tensions over constitutional changes that critics say could allow President Faure Gnassingbé to stay in power indefinitely. The move has sparked concerns over press freedom, with protests planned for next week despite a national ban on demonstrations. Regional observers worry the situation may further destabilize a region already grappling with democratic backsliding. Associated PressRFI

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

OpenAI secures $200 million US defense contract. The Pentagon announced on Monday that OpenAI has secured a $200 million contract from the U.S. Defense Department to develop advanced artificial intelligence tools for national security, both in military operations and administrative functions. According to the Pentagon, the project will involve creating prototype “frontier AI capabilities” and is expected to be completed by July 2026, primarily in the Washington area. This marks a significant government collaboration for OpenAI, which recently reported a $10 billion annualized revenue run rate amid growing global AI adoption. ReutersBloombergFrance 24

Elon Musk's X sees partial recovery after outage hits US users, Downdetector shows. Social media platform X, formerly Twitter, began recovering on Saturday after an outage affected over 10,000 users in the U.S., according to Downdetector. By 7:42 p.m. ET, disruption reports had dropped to around 1,041. While Downdetector compiles data from various sources, the actual number of users impacted may differ. The outage comes amid ongoing technical issues at X, which owner Elon Musk recently acknowledged, calling for major operational improvements. Musk, who has pledged to refocus on X, xAI, Tesla, and SpaceX, attributed a similar March outage to a cyberattack. X has not yet commented on the latest incident. Reuters

WestJet probes cybersecurity incident affecting app and internal systems. Last week, Canada’s WestJet Airlines launched a probe into a cybersecurity incident that has disrupted access to its mobile app and some internal systems, though flight operations remain unaffected. The airline was working with law enforcement and Transport Canada as of Sunday, to assess the breach and contain its impact. WestJet, Ottawa’s second largest airline, stated that it is prioritizing the protection of sensitive data belonging to both customers and employees but noted it is too early to determine the full scope or cause of the incident. The breach comes amid a rise in cyber threats targeting Canada’s critical infrastructure, following similar incidents earlier this year involving energy providers like Emera and Nova Scotia Power. Wall Street JournalReutersInfosecurity Magazine

Amazon will invest $13 billion in Australia's data center infrastructure over five years. Amazon has announced a A$20 billion (US$12.97 billion) investment to expand, operate, and maintain its data center infrastructure in Australia from 2025 to 2029, aiming to strengthen the country’s artificial intelligence capabilities. This marks the company’s largest tech investment in Australia and will support new server capacity and generative AI workloads. Amazon is also investing in three solar farms in Victoria and Queensland, committing to purchase over 170 megawatts of capacity. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese praised the move as a major boost to the economy and a vote of confidence in Australia’s future. This investment aligns with a global trend, as major tech firms like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google ramp up data center expansion to meet rising AI and cloud computing demands. Amazon recently unveiled similar plans in the U.S. and Taiwan, with multibillion-dollar investments in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and other regions. ReutersForbesWall Street Journal

Oil Prices Drop, but Iran-Israel Conflict Raises Many Risks. The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has sparked uncertainty in global energy markets, but oil prices have remained relatively stable so far. Brent crude initially jumped 7% after Israeli strikes but has since fallen to around $74 per barrel, below the 2024 average of $80. Analysts suggest this reflects market skepticism that the conflict will significantly disrupt supply, even as tensions rise in a region responsible for 25 million barrels of oil per day. Still, the situation remains volatile. If Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz—a vital route for a third of global seaborne oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas—prices could soar to $124 per barrel, Deutsche Bank estimates. However, such a move would provoke U.S. military action and hurt Iran’s own exports. More likely scenarios include Iran harassing tankers or encouraging attacks on Iraq’s oil infrastructure. If Israel targets Iran’s energy facilities, the resulting supply shock could push oil to $90 per barrel, though analysts expect prices to eventually normalize as other producers step in. New York Times

Why do countries want rare earth elements? Rare earth elements (REEs) are crucial for modern technology, found in devices like smartphones and electric vehicles, primarily due to their role in creating permanent magnets. These magnets are essential for various applications, including renewable energy technologies and defense systems. Despite their name, REEs are relatively common but are primarily sourced from specific regions, with China dominating the market, providing about 70% of the world's supply. This dependence raises concerns among Western nations about future access, prompting the EU and the US to develop domestic sources and supply chains. Initiatives like the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act aim to increase regional production, while the US seeks to establish a "mine-to-magnet" supply chain by 2027. Additionally, regions like Ukraine and Greenland are being explored for their untapped potential to ensure a more secure supply of these vital materials.Deutsche Welle

Companies Warned On Iranian Cyberattacks. As the Israel-Iran conflict intensifies, cybersecurity experts are warning of a possible surge in Iranian cyberattacks that could reach targets beyond the battlefield, including in the U.S. Iran has long posed a cyber threat, targeting critical infrastructure like the Aliquippa, Pennsylvania water utility in 2023. Although no major attacks have been reported during the current conflict, experts say the risk is rising. Iran, militarily outmatched by Israel, may turn to cyber warfare to inflict damage with broader geographic reach. So far, cyber activity has mainly involved disinformation rather than destructive attacks, but U.S. industry watchdogs have urged sectors like tech and agriculture to brace for possible disruptions. Reports from Google’s Threat Intelligence Group highlight Iran’s use of ransomware, malware, and phishing, especially against Israel. Analysts caution that while Iran often exaggerates its cyber successes for psychological effect, the threat to critical infrastructure—especially in allied nations—remains serious and evolving. Wall Street Journal

Cyberattacks against Israel surge 700 percent since the start of the conflict with Iran. Cyberattacks against Israel surged 700 percent since Friday compared with the period before June 12, according to the Radware cybersecurity firm. Researchers have found that malicious network activity has been focused on Israeli infrastructure and likely “stems from cyber retaliation operations by Iranian state actors and pro-Iranian hacker groups.” The cyber campaign consists of DDoS attacks, infiltration attempts targeting critical infrastructure, data theft, and malware distribution operations. Radware also detected increased activity by “threat actors aligned with Iran on public and private Telegram channels.” Researchers anticipate intensified Iran-sponsored cyberattacks against Israeli government websites, financial institutions, and telecommunications, alongside psychological influence campaigns. Jerusalem Post

I am concerned about asymmetric responses using cyber capabilities against targets that may not have not hardened their cyber defenses. In the past, Iran has mounted distributed denial of service (DDOS) operations against critical infrastructures like utility companies and dams, media outlets, casinos, and banks. While DDOS operations are disruptive - if Iran can flood a computer network with DDOS tools, it could also try to disrupt, degrade, alter, or shut one down.

Paula Doyle

The Cipher Brief

Starlink satellite internet links activated in Iran, bypassing government restrictions. Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite communications network has been activated in Iran, as other forms of access to the internet have been shut down. Musk confirmed over the weekend that “the beams are on” in Iran even as Tehran imposed internet restrictions on domestic users. A post on X by a political analyst highlighted that the Starlink activation enables the bypassing of government censorship directed by the Iranian communications ministry. CybernewsJerusalem Post

Twin Proba-3 spacecraft create artificial solar eclipse. The Proba-3 mission, launched in December 2024 as a collaboration between the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA, successfully created an artificial solar eclipse to study the solar corona, the sun's outer atmosphere. By maneuvering two spacecraft, Occulter and Coronagraph, 150 meters apart, Proba-3 blocked sunlight with millimeter precision, allowing for unprecedented observations of the corona's structure, which has perplexed scientists due to its higher temperatures compared to the sun's surface. The mission aims to gather data on solar phenomena, such as coronal mass ejections, which can impact Earth's technology. This innovative approach follows the recent Solar Orbiter mission, which provided the first images of the sun's poles, enhancing our understanding of solar activity and its effects on space weather. Proba-3's autonomous operation and precision flying mark significant advancements in space exploration technology. Deutsche Welle

Review of EU AI Act could remove enforcement provisions following industry lobbying. A shifting political climate and industry lobbying are leading to changes in the European Union’s landmark AI Act, which may result in simplified processes and reduced requirements for businesses. Although the Act was adopted in August of last year, it is only being implemented in stages, with some AI practices addressed immediately and other enforcement provisions entering into effect in 2026 or 2027. The latter could be put on hold, according to Dutch Green legislator Kim van Sparrentak, who helped negotiate the Act. Henna Virkkunen, the European Commission’s tech sovereignty chief, surprised some earlier in June when she referred to a possible pause in rolling out the law. An ongoing Commission review of how to simplify digital rules across the board, which will be issued in December, has provided another opportunity for “targeted” changes to the AI Act. E.U. legislators will question Virkkunen on Tuesday during a meeting of the parliamentary group monitoring the implementation of the AI Act. An Irish liberal representative, Michael McNamara, who will co-chair the meeting, warned that “just to throw everything out, there would be a risk of throwing out the baby with the bathwater." Politico

Europe responds to Nvidia CEO’s call to create ‘sovereign AI’ capabilities. European government and tech leaders reportedly are receptive to the message from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on the urgency of creating “sovereign AI” capabilities on the continent. In meetings across Europe last week, Huang declared that Nvidia plans to invest billions in multiple countries, “but Europe needs to move into AI quickly.” “Sovereign AI” emphasizes that the language, knowledge, history, and culture of each region are different, and nations must develop their own AI footprint. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced last week that Britain will create a $1.35 billion fund to build computing power to allow the country "to be an AI maker and not an AI taker." At a global tech conference in Paris last week, French President Emmanuel Macron called building AI infrastructure "our fight for sovereignty.” Arthur Mensch, the CEO of France’s Mistral AI startup, told a VivaTech panel discussion, "There's no reason why Europe shouldn't have tech champions. This is a gigantic dream." Mistral has partnered with Nvidia on the construction of a data center that will provide European firms with a domestic alternative to U.S. AI hyperscalers. Pascal Brier, chief innovation officer at Capgemini, a partner of both Nvidia and Mistral, acknowledged that European initiatives are unlikely to meet the scale of U.S. competitors. "Hyperscalers are spending $10 billion to $15 billion per quarter in their infrastructure. Who in Europe can afford that exactly?” he asked. "It doesn't mean we shouldn't do anything, but we have to be cognizant about the fact that there will always be a gap." Reuters

Leading Chinese tech firms launch talent recruitment drives in tight AI skills market. Baidu, one of China's leading internet companies, has intensified its talent recruitment efforts with a 60 percent increase in job openings to support its AI R&D initiatives. Baidu's job offerings include opportunities for specialists in large language model (LLM) algorithms, foundational LLM architecture, machine learning, speech technologies, and AI agents. Meanwhile, Baidu's rivals such as ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent Holdings have launched recruitment drives of their own, seeking candidates in various AI specialties for full-time positions or internships. These drives occur even as China faces a tight labor market for AI skills. The online headhunting platform, Liepin, estimates in its latest Talent Shortage Index (TSI) that China had an AI skills shortfall of 3.24 as of January, with any figure above one indicating a shortage. Other skills trends were provided by the Zhaopin job search platform, which reported that job postings in China for algorithm engineers jumped 44 percent year on year in the first quarter, while machine-learning specialist postings were up 18 percent. South China Morning Post

U.S. presses Vietnam to reduce Chinese components used in export tech products. In the ongoing tariff talks between the U.S. and Vietnam, Washington is urging Hanoi to reduce the use of Chinese technology in devices destined for export to the U.S. Vietnam hosts manufacturing operations that utilize Chinese components in products from Apple, Samsung, Meta, and Google. In response, Vietnam has reportedly held meetings with domestic businesses to increase the use of Vietnamese parts. The goal of this effort is to increase Vietnam's industrial output while decoupling the country from Chinese-made technology. In 2024, China exported $44 billion of electronics components and computers to Vietnam. The U.S. is also pushing Vietnam to reduce the Chinese practice of labeling products "made in Vietnam" -- a ploy to lower duties on China's exports bound for the U.S. The Vietnamese Ministry of Trade has noted progress in talks with the U.S., although it added that some critical issues remain unresolved. Reuters

Energy, tech, finance leaders gather in Washington to discuss AI-related power needs. Leading executives from major oil, tech and power firms, along with financial heavyweights, are meeting in Washington, D.C. to discuss meeting AI's energy needs. The ENACT event is organized by two UAE companies, XRG and MGX, in collaboration with the Atlantic Council think tank. The meeting's agenda focuses on both immediate energy needs to 2030 and longer-term decision-making and opportunities in the sector. Tech executives like OpenAI's global affairs head, Chris Lehane, and Crusoe's co-founder and CEO, Chase Lochmiller, are expected to participate, along with Constellation Energy's CEO, Joseph Dominguez, and Emirates Nuclear Energy's CEO, Mohamed Al Hammadi, among others. The goal of ENACT is to generate practical takeaways, and the session is expected to concentrate on the U.S., which XRG has identified as a priority market. A report is expected to follow soon after the meeting's conclusion. ADNOC CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, who is also the UAE minister of industry and advanced tech, will host this session of ENACT following an initial meeting in Abu Dhabi in 2024. Al Jaber described ENACT as an effort to "connect the dots between sectors to help drive coordinated solutions" on AI energy needs. Axios

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