What’s Next for Afghanistan and Iran? Water Wars

By John Nixon

John Nixon was a senior leadership analyst with the CIA from 1998 to 2011. He did several tours in Iraq and was recognized by a number of federal agencies for his contribution to the war effort. During his time with the CIA, Nixon regularly wrote for, and briefed, the most senior levels of the US government.  He also taught leadership analysis to the new generation of analysts coming into the CIA at the Sherman Kent School, the Agency's in-house analytic training center. Since leaving the Agency in 2011, Nixon has worked as an international risk consultant in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

Multiple challenges face Iran-Afghanistan relations, chief among them are security and resource issues.  Tehran seeks a stable government in Kabul, but one that does not rely on the U.S. for its security and stability.  Ironically, this has led Iran to, in the short-term, make common cause with the Taliban so it can deprive the United States of the ability to negotiate a settlement between the Taliban and Kabul.

  • In August 2017, the New York Times reported on Iranian arms shipments to a Taliban stronghold in Farah province, which resulted in attacks on the local police headquarters.
  • In July 2017, Afghan authorities in Ghor province accused Iran of giving explosives to the Taliban to blow up the Salma dam, which has restricted the flow of water to Iran’s Khorasan province.
  • In 2016, Afghan officials accused Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Gaurds Corps (IRGC) Quds Force of recruiting Afghan militants and training them inside Iran.

However, Iran has no long-term desire to see the Taliban replace the Kabul government. Tehran does not want a hostile Sunni Islamist government on its border allied with Saudi Arabia and a recipient of Gulf Arab largesse that will menace Iran and persecute Shia communities inside Afghanistan.  Iran and Afghanistan, who do not have a traditional military rivalry, almost went to war in 1997 after Taliban militants seized the Iranian consulate in Mazar-e Sharif and murdered several Iranian diplomats, many of who were alleged to be members of the IRGC.  Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei ordered the mobilization of nearly 70,000 troops on the Iran-Afghan border but then ordered his troops to stand down after the UN offered to mediate the dispute.

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