The Syrian Ceasefire: Faulty Foundation, Low Optimism

Posted: December 29th, 2016

By Emile Nakhleh

Dr. Emile Nakhleh is a retired Senior Intelligence Service Officer, a founding director of the CIA's Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program and the Global and the National Security Policy Institute at the University of New Mexico. Since retiring from the government, Nakhleh has consulted on national security issues, particularly Islamic radicalization, terrorism, and the Arab states of the Middle East. He is a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that a nationwide ceasefire in Syria would begin at midnight on Thursday night. This is the third such agreement this year – all other negotiated ceasefires have failed – but this deal will be enforced by Russia, Turkey, and Iran, the largest international supporters of both regime and anti-regime forces in the country. The Cipher Brief asked Network Member Emile Nakhleh, a former member of the CIA’s Senior Intelligence Service, to continue his analysis of Syria from last week in light of these developments. He told us that he was not optimistic about the ceasefire, because it is based on multiple incorrect assumptions about the future of Syria itself.

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