What Normalizing Relations Could Mean for the Middle East
The White House’s surprise announcement this past week that Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are formally normalizing relations was met with both open […] More
Norm Roule
Are Gas Deposits in the Mediterranean Worth a War?
The discovery of large gas deposits has refueled decades-old territorial disputes in the Mediterranean. In late July, Turkey announced it was dispatching a survey ship […] More
What Does Closer Cooperation between China and Iran Mean?
Iran and China are reportedly moving forward with an economic and security agreement that could pose a significant challenge to US efforts to isolate and […] More
Why Should the U.S. Care about a renewed Iran-Venezuela Relationship?
Earlier this Spring, an oil tanker from Iran arrived in Venezuela with a much-needed delivery, despite the fact that both nations are under US sanctions. […] More
Where are Ripples from the Oil War Heading?
Global markets responded on Monday to fears of a second-wave of coronavirus infections and one of the industries feeling the pressure is the gas and […] More
COVID and Navigating the New Middle East Challenges
The global pandemic caused by COVID-19 has added a significant layer of uncertainty to an already complicated situation in the Middle East. The Cipher Brief […] More
Our Response to 9/11 Gave us Lessons for COVID-19
“America is no longer protected by vast oceans. We are protected from attack only by vigorous action abroad, and increased vigilance at home.” – President […] More
The Coronavirus is worse than the System Blinking Red
Norman T. Roule served for 34-years in the Central Intelligence Agency, managing numerous programs relating to Iran and the Middle East. He served as the […] More
OSINT Trendline Report – The Middle East and North Africa
The Cipher Brief’s Open Source Trendline Report utilizes open source data to track trends around the world that impact national and global security. We break […] More
Avenging the Death of Qassem Soleimani
The U.S. targeting and killing of Iranian Quds Force General Qassem Soleimani by a drone strike in Baghdad on Friday has prompted a series of […] More
Is the Maximum Pressure Campaign Working with Iran?
As the U.S. continues to announce new sanctions aimed at Iran, there are some signs that indicate the U.S. policy of applying maximum pressure on […] More
Anticipating the Likelihood of Iranian-Backed Attacks
The Commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East, General Kenneth F. McKenzie, recently warned that the presence of an additional 14,000 U.S. troops sent […] More
What Are Protests in the Middle East Signaling?
Protesters came out in support of Lebanese President Michel Aoun on Sunday but they were followed by anti-government protesters who have been calling for a […] More
The Regional Impact of al-Baghdadi’s Death
Cipher Brief Expert Norman T. Roule served for 34-years in the Central Intelligence Agency, managing numerous programs relating to Iran and the Middle East. He […] More
Managing Iran’s Actions to Avoid Collapse of Global Economy
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman is warning that military conflict with Iran would collapse the global economy. He made the statement during an […] More
The Drone Attack on Oil and the Larger Iran Problem
When a series of drones were used to attack a key Saudi oil facility over the weekend, the impact on oil production was noted by […] More
Signs of Iranian Strategy
It was a busy weekend of activity for Iran, much of it rooted in its desire to seek ways around U.S. sanctions that are targeting […] More
Iran’s State of Play
Tensions remain high between Iran and several EU countries, even after some of the primary signatories to the 2015 nuclear agreement vowed their continued support […] More