How Russians Can Bring an End to Putin’s Chekist State
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — “Nothing”, Fyodor Dostoevsky observed in Crime and Punishment, “is easier than to denounce the evildoer; nothing is more difficult than to understand […] More
Putin
The People in the Best Position to Stop Putin are His Own
The Cipher Brief: Understanding that there is no clear view into what Russian President Vladimir Putin is really thinking – what do you think Ukraine […] More
The Facts that Putin Cannot Change
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — As we used to say in government, it could be worse. A single death or wounding, a single destroyed hospital, school or […] More
Putin’s Health and State of Mind are very Hard Targets
OPINION — The current horrific invasion of Ukraine – including aerial bombing of civilian targets in large cities – by Russian military forces, and Russian […] More
A Picture of Putin’s Nuclear Option
OPINION — Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has repeatedly threatened the use of his nuclear weapons and now has placed his nuclear deterrence forces on […] More
With the World Turning Against Him, Putin’s Going to Need a Way Out
The Cipher Brief spoke with former Canadian National Security Advisor and former Deputy Minister of National Defence Richard B. Fadden about the risks and challenges […] More
NATO and Putin’s Bad Assumptions
A former NATO Supreme Allied Commander takes aim at the Russian President’s less-than-perfect assumptions about invading Ukraine and the opportunity presented for NATO The Cipher […] More
Ukraine and an Assessment of how a Bad Situation Could Get Much Worse
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – What we are witnessing in Ukraine is a tragedy that, just a few months ago, many considered unthinkable – no, unimaginable: a […] More
Ukraine and Using the Righteousness of our Cause Creatively
OPINION — Putin’s invasion of Ukraine will generate immediate waves on the intel front, especially in HUMINT operations. Some effects will follow established patterns, but […] More
Putin’s Ukraine Gambit: Why Now and What’s Next
OPINION — Following a masterful combination of long-term strategy, gray zone tactics, hybrid warfare, and management of the information space, Russia’s President Putin has at […] More
Putin Moves on Ukraine. How Will the World Respond?
OPINION — Is this the future of major power conflicts? Remember President Joe Biden’s January 19, 2022, press conference response to a question about sanctions […] More
Is the Russian President a Strategic Master or a Strategic Failure?
OPINION — As a national leader, Vladimir Putin deserves respect. You underestimate him at your peril. But it is a qualified respect. Putin wields the […] More
The Outlier: What if Putin’s Real Target isn’t Ukraine?
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — We have a long history of misreading Russian intentions. The classic example was the judgement by the British Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) […] More
A New Path to Cyber Conflict with Russia
OPINION — Last Thursday, in a little-noticed U.S. Treasury Department press release, the Biden administration accused Russia of currently implementing a 2020 information warfare plan […] More
Don’t Ignore All Sides of Russian Messaging
OPINION — Let’s look at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s situation at home, as we try to determine what’s behind his threatening stance toward Ukraine. As […] More
Negotiate Like Putin
OPINION — Russia’s President Vladimir Putin never attended Harvard Business School’s esteemed negotiation course, but in the current Ukraine crisis, he has performed brilliantly, and […] More
How Putin’s Plans for Ukraine Could Pay Off
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — If Russia ultimately launches military operations against Ukraine, U.S. President Joe Biden has signaled that the U.S. would respond not with direct […] More
The Message Putin Needs to Hear
EXPERT OPINION — “Peace for our time,” declared British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain upon his arrival at Heston Aerodrome outside London on 30 September 1938. […] More