Dead Drop: October 23

TO THE VICTOR, GO THE SPOILS: Every four years, we go through the drill where you start seeing the names of people likely to end up in cabinet positions if a certain candidate wins the presidency.  The rumor mill seems to be a little late in starting in 2020 – but perhaps that is because the Biden camp has put out word discouraging folks from publicly lobbying for positions and because the Trump personnel lineup has been in a state of near-constant flux since 2016.  But some of the “who’s up, who’s down” stories are starting to appear.  This week Politico carried a report saying if Biden won, one of his priorities would be to “revamp (a) fraying intel community.” Campaign adviser Tony Blinken said that giving some TLC to the IC would be job one for Joe. That would start with appointing new people to lead it. According to Politico, “The Biden campaign has been considering a couple of veteran national security hands who could serve in senior intelligence roles…” Adding among the names floating around “is former CIA acting director Michael Morell, former Obama national security adviser and close Biden confidant, Tom Donilon, former Obama deputy national security adviser Avril Haines, former Deputy NSA Director Chris Inglis, and former deputy director of the Defense Intelligence Agency Robert Cardillo.”  Of course, it is not just IC slots that would need filling.  Politico had another piece talking about top contenders for the State Department if Biden wins. Senator Chris Coons of Delaware seems to be in the running for the job.  And Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut is also in the mix.  Susan Rice, former Deputy Secretary Bill Burns, and Blinken’s name also come up as among those who might get the nod.  Over at Defense, there seems to be something close to a consensus that Michèle Flournoy has the inside track to become the first female SECDEF.

BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE: Of course, a Biden win is far from a done deal.  But expect a lot of turnover even if President Trump wins a second term. There is no indication that the senior official revolving door on steroids of the past four years would slow down in Trump II. The President has refused to give a vote of confidence to his (current) Secretary of Defense Mark Esper.  And he has expressed concerns about Attorney General Bill Barr as well.  Presidential number one son, Don Jr. recently mused about the need for breaking up the FBI, and Trump whisperers in the media have been taking shots at CIA Director Gina Haspel for not declassifying information they want to see fast enough and suggesting she is not a team player (at least not on their team.)