Uncertainty Ahead: Defense Technology and Acquisition Trends in 2017
The crystal ball may be unusually cloudy when it comes to predicting defense technology and acquisition trends for 2017, but the causes of this cloudiness […] More
Agenda Setter
Counter Messaging, Not Divisive Rhetoric: Effective Counterterrorism in 2017
The Cipher Brief sat down with Matthew Olsen, former Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, to discuss the terrorist threat in the coming year. According […] More
Putin Meets His Match?
Russian President Vladimir Putin, a leader known for his unpredictability, may have met his match: the new President of the United States, Donald Trump. Until […] More
A Happy Ending for Europe in 2017?
A comparison with the 1848 domino-like revolutions that spread across Europe is a bit of a stretch, but far-right populism is definitely on a roll, […] More
Back to Basics: Staying Ahead of China
Compared to China, ISIS amounts to a nasty swarm of gnats. Compared to China, Russia comes across as a cranky old man (with a shotgun). […] More
Hacktivism and Cyberspies – The New Reality of 2017
Hacktivism has been a fact of life even before the rise of Anonymous. In 2016, we saw a tidal wave of global hacktivism and cyber […] More
Turkey's Diplomatic Collision Course
Twelve people have been detained in connection with the New Year’s night club gun attack in Istanbul that left 39 people dead. Islamic State has […] More
Obama’s Legacy in the Middle East: One Size Doesn’t Fit All
As the United States prepares for a new administration, The Cipher Brief‘s Leone Lakhani sits down with Ambassador Dennis Ross, Counselor at the Washington Institute […] More
An Open Letter to the CIA Director Nominee
One of President-elect Donald Trump’s first choices for his national security team was Representative Mike Pompeo for Director of the CIA. A graduate of West […] More
Confronting North Korea: A War of the Will
As the incoming administration continues to define its contours, and as President-elect Donald Trump begins to outline a foreign policy strategy for the next four […] More
AQAP's Opportunism in Yemen: Benefit or Bust?
On September 24, Abu Khalid al-Sana’ani, a mid-level al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) commander, was killed by a U.S. airstrike as he and three […] More
International Espionage on Campus
The idyllic American university campus conjures the image of a safe and open academic environment where students spend four or more years learning new ideas […] More
The Consequences of Eroding Human Intelligence Collection
The U.S. Intelligence Community’s (IC) clandestine human intelligence (HUMINT) services are experiencing an erosion of their core mission and values, with consequences to our current […] More
Iraq’s Grim Prospects Post ISIL
In the coming months, and possibly weeks, the Iraqi Security Forces, with the help of a diverse group of fighters spanning the Iraqi political spectrum, […] More
A Letter to the Next Secretary of State Re: East Asia
Chinese rivalry with the U.S. for regional dominance will be central to U.S. East Asia policy for the incoming administration. China’s aggressive use of economic […] More
Underestimating al Qaeda
The United States and its allies are consumed by their battle with ISIS, but to many terrorism experts, al Qaeda remains a serious force to […] More
Instability in the Age of Complexity
What most distinguishes human civilization in the 21st Century and during the emerging era of globalization is its ever intensifying complexity. Gone are the terrestrial […] More
NYPD’s Intelligence Division: Answering the Terrorism Challenge Post 9/11
In the aftermath of 9/11, every major security, law enforcement, and intelligence organization initiated changes to address the looming terrorist threat. None made more profound […] More