The Man in the Kremlin is Still Smiling, So What Have We Really Learned?

Cipher Brief Expert and former CIA Deputy Director for Counterintelligence, Mark Kelton wrote for The Cipher Brief back in 2017 that, The Man in the Kremlin Must be Smiling, saying that “Vladimir Putin is smiling because he thrives on chaos, particularly in the camp of the “Main Enemy,” a term the Soviet and Russian intelligence services have long used to refer to the United States.”  So where are we today and what have we learned over these past three years? 

Vladimir Putin should be unhappy.  His dreams of restoring Moscow’s preeminent world role notwithstanding, the Russian President finds himself playing second fiddle to his fellow authoritarian in Beijing in an “Axis of Autocracy” defined less by common interests than by a common adversary.  The Russian economy – beset by sanctions – is stagnant.  Those sanctions, engendered by Putin’s aggression against his neighbors, remain in place.  The chief target of that belligerence, Ukraine, has received arms that will make continuation of Putin’s depredations much more difficult.  Putin’s pressure on the Baltic States continues unabated; but so does their will to resist.  His ongoing efforts to prop up a puppet regime in Venezuela have devolved into parasitical Russian exploitation of that country’s oil reserves for much needed cash.  Despite the best efforts of the FSB, 2019 saw the largest anti-regime protests since 2012 as Russians braved repression to belabor the new Tsar with demands for real democracy in their country.  And now, Putin must once again gerrymander the Russian constitution to ensure his continued hold on power when his term of office ostensibly expires.