How Iran Makes Israel Protector of the Palestinian People

OPINION — Iran openly proclaims its goal of eliminating Israel. Maj. Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi, commander of the Iranian Army, stated that Iranian forces are working to “annihilate Israel” and “raze Tel Aviv… to the ground.” Many other Iranian leaders routinely echo these ambitions. However, Iran’s pursuit of their goal, clearly with nuclear weapons in mind, poses problems.

Abundant research indicates that aftereffects of a nuclear detonation, depending on kilotons, produces total devastation within a radius of about 10 miles, with lesser but still extreme destruction widening the impact radius to as much as 50 miles.

Palestinian population centers are close to Israeli population centers, so even with accurate targeting, a nuclear bomb exploded in the heart of Tel Aviv is very likely to also annihilate nearby Palestinian populations.

From a nuclear bomb’s perspective, Israelis and Palestinians are not separate peoples. Because of their proximity, they would be commingled into one people. Virtually all Palestinians, living in the West Bank, in Gaza, or even in Jordan, would become “collateral damage” of Iran’s plan to put an end to Israel’s existence.

Much would depend on the expertise of Iranian nuclear and rocket engineers. Tehran is about 900 miles from Tel Aviv. Jerusalem is about 30 miles from Tel Aviv, as is much of the West Bank. Aiming at Tel Aviv but hitting Jerusalem or the West Bank would represent a mere 3% targeting error. How much confidence should Palestinians place in Iranian rocket science to feel safe that in the event of a nuclear attack they would be spared?

Islam’s third holiest site, the Dome of the Rock on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem, would also likely cease to exist. How would Muslim history view this?

Since Gaza is only 45 miles away from Tel Aviv, similar concerns would apply. Errors of only 3-5% are acceptable in most matters of daily life. Not so much with a nuclear bomb.

All this presupposes just one nuclear bomb is used. However, typical doctrine calls for using more than one bomb to make sure a chosen target is completely annihilated. Thus, more bombs aimed at Tel Aviv would fully guarantee that most of the Palestinian population would also be destroyed. This might not be entirely acceptable to Palestinians. While they may wish for the same result–killing all Israelis–they might not be fully on board as to how the details would work out.

To summarize, were Iran to act on its wish to level Tel Aviv with a nuclear bomb, it would certainly kill most Israelis–but also most Palestinians.

Without any Israelis and any Palestinians left alive, Iran will finally have solved the intractable Israeli-Palestinian conflict!

What about the important issue of attribution?

To accurately attribute responsibility to a guilty actor, two factors must be known: capability and motivation.

With computer hacking, there are many capable and motivated actors so attribution can become a very hard problem. But with nuclear weaponry, the number of capable actors is small, and at least for now, exclusively limited to nation states.

In the case of a nuclear attack on Israel, attribution would be easy. Aside from Iran, given the current regime’s openly expressed bellicose intentions, there are no other actors that need to be considered that have both the capability and motivation to attack Israel with a nuclear bomb. In short, if a nuclear bomb were to explode in Israel, there would be no uncertainty about who would be the guilty party.

For that reason, Israel would have to make it crystal clear that in the event of any nuclear attack aimed at Israel, retaliatory action would immediately be taken against Iran and only Iran. This would mean the complete cessation of Iran surviving as a nation state.

Israel has clung to strategic ambiguity as to whether it possesses nuclear bombs, but it is generally accepted it has about a couple of hundred. Israel would only need to declare that in the event of any nuclear attack, it would necessarily be attributed to Iran, whether deployed by direct means or by indirect means, such as by one of the various Iranian surrogate forces.

Israel has emulated declared nuclear powers by creating a triad of military capabilities that include land, air, and submarine-launched platforms, which assures full retaliatory capacity. Because its fingerprints would be assumed to be on it, any nuclear attack against Israel would be sufficient grounds for catastrophic retaliation against Iran.

Iranian intelligence assets would have to adopt a paradoxical new mission: Iran would have to make sure that no other state or even non-state actor gets hold of a nuclear weapon and uses it against Israel. That’s because Israel, as a matter of policy, would have to attribute any nuclear attack as originating from Iran and act accordingly.

Adding to Iran’s worries, when Iran makes nuclear threats against Israel, it forces nearby nations, like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, to build their own nuclear arsenals to protect their own security, just in case. Making nuclear threats against Israel expands the roster of Iran’s potential nuclear-armed enemies.

These thoughts recall the “unthinkable” calculations of Herman Kahn during the Cold War, adapted to today. Back then, the USSR and the USA had to manage their conflicts always mindful of the concept of MAD or Mutual Assured Destruction. While not a comforting concept, MAD did succeed in preserving the world.

If Israel openly affirms stern policies that remove the option for Iran to deploy a nuclear bomb, it simultaneously saves the entire Palestinian population from “accidental” annihilation. Palestinians need not become victims, or collateral damage of Iranian extremism directed at Israel.

Surprisingly, Israel is the best protector of the survival of the Palestinian people.