Iran’s Uncontested Influence in Syria
As part of our special coverage on Syria, The Cipher Brief spoke with Norm Roule, the former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at the Office […] More
Middle East
President Trump’s Syria Surprise
The 19 December announcement by President Trump to withdraw ground troops from Syria was surprising to everyone but should have come as a shock to […] More
The U.S. Remains Incapable of Formulating a Coherent Syria Strategy
Bottom Line Up Front On December 19, 2018, President Trump unexpectedly announced a full withdrawal of all U.S. troops in Syria within the next […] More
Trump’s Team on Syria Weighs Risk
Reports that President Trump has ordered a withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria are not inconsistent with prior messages we’ve heard from the President this […] More
Iraq’s New Year Challenges
Despite years of forecasts predicting implosion, partition, revolution, Iranian absorption and other apocalyptic scenarios, there were generally more good events in 2018 than bad in […] More
Turkey Warns the U.S. It Will Launch Cross-Border Strikes into Syria
Bottom Line Up Front The U.S. will likely maintain an enduring military presence in Syria for years, in an extremely complex operating environment. Washington […] More
The Yemen Policy Debate Heats Up
Bottom Line Up Front The October killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi has shifted U.S. congressional opinion sharply against Saudi Arabia’s de-facto leader, Crown […] More
Qatar Exits OPEC
Bottom Line Up Front Qatar’s withdrawal from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is strongly correlated to Doha’s ongoing rift with the cartel’s […] More
Trying to Feed Civilians While Starving Terrorists of Funds
Bottom Line Up Front According to its Office of the Inspector General, a top priority for USAID in 2019 is reforming its projects in […] More
How the U.S. Helped the Saudis Make the Middle East a ‘Dangerous Place’
OPINION — The Middle East, like the rest of the world, is a “very dangerous place!” according to President Trump. The Saudis, with America’s tacit […] More
Sanctioning Hezbollah
Bottom Line Up Front Hezbollah’s emergence as Iran’s key regional proxy has prompted additional U.S. efforts to choke off the terror group’s finances. Sanctions […] More
Resetting the Crucial U.S.-Saudi Relationship
President Donald Trump is expected to receive a full report on the killing of Washington Post Journalist Jamal Khashoggi on Tuesday. The President called a […] More
War Before Peace: The Struggle to Control Hodeida
Bottom Line Up Front On November 11, reports indicate that at least 149 Yemenis were killed in fighting for the port city of Hodeida. […] More
Children of the Caliphate: Uncertain Futures and Living in Limbo
Bottom Line Up Front Approximately 700 children were born in the caliphate to parents from Western countries, although many European governments are either unsure […] More
The Islamic State of Graves
Bottom Line Up Front On November 6, the United Nations stated it had found over 200 mass graves in Iraq in areas once held […] More
Cipher Brief Analysis: The Pakistan Problem
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan recently returned from China without the concrete funding assurances that he was seeking in order to keep his country from […] More
Iran Sanctions Back in Force
Bottom Line Up Front The most significant U.S. sanctions on Iran—aimed at Tehran’s core energy and banking sectors—went back into effect on Monday November […] More
The U.S. Makes Noise but No Action Over Yemen
Bottom Line Up Front Last week, both U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defense James Mattis declared the need for a […] More