Victory in Ramadi City against ISIS by the Iraqi Army, despite ISIS holdouts, has given a shot in the arm to the Iraqi government and to Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. Strengthening Iraq’s political institution is not only essential to the fight against ISIS but also for larger regional objectives. This will not be easy, however, given the government’s problems beyond ISIS, ranging from a desperate budgetary crisis to Iranian encroachment.
In a December article for The Cipher Brief, I described the diplomatic steps necessary to defeat ISIS and stabilize Iraq. Such an effort, however, requires a complementary focus on the internal problems that endanger the fight against ISIS and challenge the stability of the Iraqi state. Assuming America can make progress with Iran on its destabilizing actions within Iraq, the two most important internal problems for Abadi are finances and his ‘minority’ ethnic/religious groups, the Sunni Arabs, many of whom still sit on the fence between Baghdad and ISIS. Then there are the Kurds who, once again, are rhetorically calling for independence. The U.S. can play a role here and thereby help defeat ISIS but only if Washington engages more and accepts greater risks.
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