Averting War on the Korean Peninsula

By Joseph DeTrani

Ambassador Joseph DeTrani is former Special envoy for Six Party Talks with North Korea and the U.S. Representative to the Korea Energy Development Organization (KEDO), as well as former CIA director of East Asia Operations. He also served as the Associate Director of National Intelligence and Mission Manager for North Korea and the Director of the National Counter Proliferation Center, while also serving as a Special Adviser to the Director of National Intelligence.  He currently serves on the Board of Managers at Sandia National Laboratories.  The views expressed represent those of the author.

Potential conflict on the Korean Peninsula was averted this week when the North Korea media announced that Kim Jung un delayed a decision on firing missiles toward Guam, while he watched U.S. action a little longer.  Prior to this welcomed announcement, President Donald Trump made it clear that the U.S. would respond to the North Korea threat with “fire and fury likely the world has never seen.”  Kim Jung-un responded by threatening to land four missiles near the territory of Guam., inciting President Trump to say that the U.S. was “locked and loaded if North Korea acted unwisely.”  Well, North Korea acted wisely.  It doesn’t mean, however, that North Korea will continue to act wisely.

North Korea is on the cusp of proving to the world that they have a viable nuclear deterrent – an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that can reach the continental U.S. with a nuclear warhead.  Our challenge is to convince North Korea that they don’t want to go there.  North Korea displaying this capability and threatening the U.S. will require a response from the U.S., which is what they recently got verbally from President Trump. Acting on this threat with the launch of a missile with a possible nuclear warhead will require a U.S. response.  And the most conservative response will be taking preemptive action to intercept and destroy a missile launched from North Korea that could be a nuclear threat to the U.S. or its allies in South Korea and Japan.

“The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief in terms of the number of articles published by formers.” —Sept. 2018, Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 62

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