The Significance of al-Zawahiri’s Death
OPINION — There are undoubtedly those who wonder why the President of the United States would bother to address the American public about the death […] More
Rob Dannenberg
What the East-West Rift Over Ukraine Really Means
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Threats from Russia and its “ally” Belarus are still coming as the invasion of Ukraine grinds through its fifth month but where […] More
‘Who’s The Fairest Vlad of All’: Expert Perspective on the Russian President’s Next Move
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — “Mirror, mirror on the wall—who’s the fairest one of all?” is the famous misquote from the movie Snow White. Speaking at a […] More
Time to Stop Wobbling and Learn to Love the Bomb
OPINION – In the 1964 movie, Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb, an insane U.S. general triggers nuclear […] More
The Latest
This is NATO’s Casablanca Moment
OPINION — In the 1942 Hollywood classic Casablanca, Ingrid Bergman, playing Ilsa Lund famously says, “Play it, Sam.” A little under a year later, the […] More
With His only Option being Escalation, this is How Putin’s War Must End
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Vladimir Putin wanted this war. The “special military operation” launched in Ukraine, is just another step toward confrontation and conflict with the […] More
Ukraine and an Assessment of how a Bad Situation Could Get Much Worse
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – What we are witnessing in Ukraine is a tragedy that, just a few months ago, many considered unthinkable – no, unimaginable: a […] More
Could This be Putin’s Big Tango?
OPINION – The diplomatic and military moves of world leaders can be akin to a tango, a basic pattern of steps incorporating long pauses and dramatic […] More
Anticipating Russia’s Next Move in Ukraine
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Bilateral negotiations in Geneva between the US and the Russian Federation concluded without resolution of Russia’s “security guarantee” demands. The same result […] More
The Message Putin Needs to Hear
EXPERT OPINION — “Peace for our time,” declared British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain upon his arrival at Heston Aerodrome outside London on 30 September 1938. […] More
After Geneva: US – Russia Strategy Moving Forward
Robert Dannenberg, Fmr. Sr. CIA Officer, Former Chief of Security, Goldman Sachs Access all of The Cipher Brief’s national security-focused expert insight by becoming a […] More
The Business Executive’s Guide to Retaliatory Arrests
Russia’s willingness to detain a U.S. citizen in apparent retaliation for the recent case against Russian citizen Marina Butina should serve as a warning to […] More
Analysis: The U.S.-Russia Disagreement over the INF Treaty – Do Svedanya
U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Tuesday to discuss the U.S. decision to withdraw from the […] More
Inside Putin’s Head
UPDATED: As U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin emerge from their summit meeting in Helsinki, Finland, in which no aides were allowed […] More
Time to Rethink Deterring Russia?
The United States has taken a number of steps in recent weeks to push back on Russian aggression, but they won’t deter Russia’s aggressive campaign […] More
How the Kremlin Wins by Confusing You
While Russia has become increasingly aggressive on the international stage, it has done so tactically, commonly engaging in plausibly deniable clandestine operations such as the […] More
Putin Looks Elsewhere to Retaliate Against U.S. Acts in Syria
On June 18, a U.S. Navy F/A-18E Super Hornet shot down a Syrian Air Force Su-22 fighter bomber near the town of al-Tabqa in eastern […] More
The Beginning of the End of Putinism?
On Sunday, March 26, widespread protests broke out in more than 80 cities in the Russian Federation, apparently in response to the government’s inability or […] More
Why Putin Is Winning in Syria
After the fall of Aleppo, few would deny the influence that Russian President Vladimir Putin now wields in Syria and the Middle East – but […] More