Sizing Up the Trump Defense Budget

President Donald Trump’s defense budget proposal for fiscal year 2018 calls for $54 billion in additional spending, but it is not yet clear where this new funding will come from or what it will be used for. The proposed increase builds on spending hikes planned by the outgoing Obama administration, but it is publicly unpopular. In a recent poll, 58 percent of Americans said they opposed the increase. The size and complexity of the defense budget makes it a lightning rod for disagreements, which can ultimately work against the goal of providing a first-class military with global reach.

Debate over the budget often centers on its total cost, and this can produce misleading conclusions. For example, the Trump’s defense budget topline figure of $603 billion for FY2018 can be interpreted in several ways. In absolute terms, even when adjusted for inflation, the sum is larger than any budget from the Cold War buildup of the Reagan era. However, in relative terms, at approximately 4 percent of GDP, Trump’s defense budget is one of the smallest in the post-WWII era. The opposing conclusions from these two approaches illustrates how problematic analysis of just the topline figure can be.

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