Threats to American Interests Increase as Gulf Diplomacy Dissolves

Posted: September 21st, 2017

By Emile Nakhleh

Dr. Emile Nakhleh is a retired Senior Intelligence Service Officer, a founding director of the CIA's Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program and the Global and the National Security Policy Institute at the University of New Mexico. Since retiring from the government, Nakhleh has consulted on national security issues, particularly Islamic radicalization, terrorism, and the Arab states of the Middle East. He is a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

The ongoing dispute between Qatar and its neighbors – Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates – has thrown the U.S. into a difficult situation. U.S. President Donald Trump has reaffirmed his support for Saudi Arabia’s policies, but at the same time has continued to work with Qatar, which houses the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East. These events have essentially led to the crumbling of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as well as a more influential role for Iran in the region. The Cipher Brief’s Bennett Seftel spoke with Emile Nakleh, Cipher Brief expert and a former member of the CIA’s Senior Intelligence Service about the U.S. involvement in the Qatar feud and whether tensions could further boil over.

The Cipher Brief: It seems as though Qatar and the Gulf countries that severed ties with it are at an impasse with neither side bending towards the other. Do you expect any reconciliation or additional confrontation in the short term?

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