Placating Patrons Who Control the Cards in Syria

By Barak Barfi

Barak Barfi is a research fellow at New America, where he specializes in Arab and Islamic Affairs. Previously, Barak was a Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution. His articles have appeared in the Washington Post, International Herald Tribune, Foreign Policy, Daily Beast, the Atlantic and the New Republic, in addition to being regularly featured in Project Syndicate. He has also extensively published in leading foreign publications such as Australia's The Australian, Austria's Der Standard, England's The Guardian, Germany's Die Welt and Spain's El Pais. Barak has published several monographs and encyclopedia articles on topics such as al-Qaeda, Libya and Yemen. Barak frequently testifies before Congress on issues ranging from al-Qaeda to the Syrian conflict. Before entering the think tank world, Barak worked as a correspondent for Associated Press and as a producer for ABC News affiliates where he reported from countries such as Iraq and Lebanon. He has lived in half a dozen Middle East countries including Libya and Yemen. Barak did his undergraduate work at the University of Michigan and his graduate studies at Columbia University. He is fluent in Arabic and French and proficient in German.

As 2016 comes to a close, Russia and Turkey have cobbled together a ceasefire in Syria, paving the way for peace talks to end the more than five-year long war that has destroyed the country and torn asunder its social fabric.  Though past initiatives failed to silence the guns, the current plan holds more hope, even if its prospects for success are still low.

In September, the United States and Russia announced a similar ceasefire, which quickly crumbled.  A number of factors have created a more propitious atmosphere.  The rebel defeat in eastern Aleppo was a major blow to their fortunes, and they are scrambling to remain relevant as government forces increasingly shrink their territory.  The election of Donald Trump as president augurs a complete abandonment of their cause.  But ultimately, it is the Russians who have changed the calculus of the war.

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