One Battle, But "Six Campaigns"

Posted: October 16th, 2016

By James Jeffrey

Ambassador James F. Jeffrey joined the Wilson Center in December 2020 as Chair of the Middle East Program. Ambassador Jeffrey served as the Secretary’s Special Representative for Syria Engagement and the Special Envoy to the Global Coalition To Defeat ISIS until November 8, 2020. He is a senior American diplomat with experience in political, security, and energy issues in the Middle East, Turkey, Germany, and the Balkans.

The good news: all signs point to a final attack on ISIS in Mosul by Iraqi forces and the American-led coalition. This struggle has received much media attention, and even presidential campaign play, and for good reason. Both quantitatively (size of coalition forces, size of the city and population) and qualitatively (symbolic significance of Mosul, where ISIS leader al Baghdadi announced his Caliphate; complicated diplomatic, political, and humanitarian concerns impacting the battle), more is at play here than in earlier battles against ISIS.

The (potentially) bad news: Mosul is much more than a bigger version of the recent battle to retake Fallujah. Aside from the fight itself and the “day after” struggles, there are four interlocking strategic elements in play: restoring American military credibility; definitively destroying ISIS; deterring Iran; and saving Iraq. Thus, six campaigns hinge on what is about to happen in Mosul.

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