Lessons Learned

Posted: December 17th, 2015

By Emile Nakhleh

Dr. Emile Nakhleh is a retired Senior Intelligence Service Officer, a founding director of the CIA's Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program and the Global and the National Security Policy Institute at the University of New Mexico. Since retiring from the government, Nakhleh has consulted on national security issues, particularly Islamic radicalization, terrorism, and the Arab states of the Middle East. He is a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

As the citizens of Arab nations reflect on the fifth anniversary of the popular revolts of 2011, they are likely to feel a sense of malaise and frustration. The rise of autocratic counter-revolutionary politics, regime repression, the resurgence of terrorism, and the spread of violence have replaced the euphoria of 2011.

To understand the tumult and chaos that have befallen the region, it is critical to consider the complexity of Middle Eastern societies and political structures, the varied religious and historical narratives, the sources of radical and millenarian ideologies, the diminishing role of traditional nation-state actors, and the rise of violent and terrorist non-state entities.

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